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DevelopmentandEncouragementofrenewableenergytechnologies1.1ProjectBackgroundSinceitsinceptioninthe1970s,theU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)hasoperatedasubstantialprograminthedevelopmentandencouragementofrenewableenergytechnologies.Aspartofitsongoingefforttodocumentthestatusandpotentialofthesetechnologies,DOE,alongwithitsnationallaboratoriesandsupportorganizations,developedthefirstsetofRenewableEnergyTechnologyCharacterizations(TCs)in1989.TheTCsweredesignedtorespondtoDOE’sneedforasetofconsistentcostandperformancedatatosupportthedevelopmentofthebiennialNationalEnergyPolicyPlans.ThatfirstsetofTCswassubsequentlyusedtosupporttheanalysesthatwereperformedin1991byDOEfortheNationalEnergyStrategy.TheTCswereupdatedin1993,butuntilnowhadnotbeenformallypublishedandexistedonlyindraftform.TheElectricPowerResearchInstitute(EPRI),operatingonbehalfofitsmemberutilities,hasconductedaprogramintheassessment,evaluationandadvancementofrenewablepowertechnologiessincethemid-1970s.Inthatrole,EPRIhasbeencalleduponbyitsmembers,andoftenbytheenergycommunityingeneral,toprovideobjectiveinformationonthestatusandoutlookforrenewablesinprospectiveelectric-powerapplications.Towardthataim,EPRIhasjoinedwithDOEtoproducethissetofRenewableEnergyTechnologyCharacterizations.ThisjointprojectisoneofanumberofactivitiesthatDOEandEPRIareconductingunderthejointDOE-EPRISustainableElectricPartnershipenteredintoformallybybothorganizationsinOctober1994.ItbuildsuponanumberofactivitiesconductedjointlybyDOEandEPRIoverthepasttwodecades.1.2Objectives,ApproachandScopePurposeandAudience:Inresponsetogrowinginterestinrenewablepowertechnologiesandtheneedforconsistent,objectiveassessmentsoftechnologyperformanceandcosts,DOEandEPRIcollaboratedtopreparetheRenewableEnergyTechnologyCharacterizations(TCs)presentedinthisdocument.Together,throughthisdocument,DOEandEPRIaimtoprovidefortheenergycommunityandthegeneralpublicanobjectivepictureofthestatusandexpectationsfortherenewablepowertechnologiesinelectric-powerapplicationsintheUnitedStates.TheseTCsrepresentaconsensusbetweenDOEandEPRIonthecurrentstatusandprojecteddevelopmentpathoffiverenewableelectricitygeneratingtechnologies:biomass,geothermal,photovoltaics,solarthermalandwind.Inaddition,recognizingtherolethatstoragecanplayinenhancingthevalueofsomerenewablepowerplants,aTCforstoragetechnologies,withastrongemphasisonbatteries,isincludedinanappendix.TheTCscanservetwodistinctpurposes.First,theyaredesignedtobeareferencetoolforenergy-policyanalystsandpower-systemplannersseekingobjectivecostandperformancedata.Second,theextensivediscussionsoftheassumptionsthatunderliethedataprovidevaluableinsightsforR&DprogramplannersastheystrivetoprioritizefutureR&Defforts.Approach:Buildingonthebestavailableinformationandexperiencefrommanyyearsofdirectinvolvementinthedevelopmentandassessmentofrenewableenergytechnologies,expertsfromDOE,itsnationallaboratoriesandsupportorganizationspreparedcharacterizationsofthemajorrenewabletechnologies.Theseweresubjectedtoin-depthreviewbyEPRItechnicalstaffinrenewablesandselectedoutsidereviewers,andthendiscussedatlengthintwotechnicalworkshopsinvolvingthewritersandthereviewers.Thecharacterizationswerethenrevised,reflectingdiscussionsatandsubsequenttotheworkshops,resultinginthisconsensusdocument.Insomecases,EPRIstaffparticipatedinpreparationofoverviewsections.DocumentScope:TheTCsdonotdescribespecificproductsorhardwareconfigurations.Theydescribetypicalsystemconfigurationsatfiveyearincrementsthroughtheyear2030,basedonaprojectedevolutionofthetechnologiesduring1-2thattimeframe.Theyoftenportraychangesinexpectedtechnologyconfigurationovertime.Allowingachangingconfigurationensuresthat,ineachtimeframediscussed,theTCrepresentsthemostcost-effectiveconfigurationprojectedtobeavailableinthattimeframe.Forexample,thesolarthermalpowertowerevolvesfromahybridplantwithaconventionalreceivertoasolar-onlyplantwithanadvancedreceiver.TheTCsdonotattempttopickwinnersamongavarietyofchoices.Inthatspirit,thinfilmPVsystemsare,forexample,describedonlyinagenericway,notspecifyinganyparticularthinfilmtechnologyinanygiventimeframe.ThisviewofthetechnologyfuturemirrorstheR&DportfolioapproachthatDOEtakes,allowingthetechnologyitselfandthemarketplacetodeterminewinnersandlosers.EachTCshouldbethoughtofasadescriptionofthattechnologyinaparticularapplication,typicallyasagridconnectedsystemforbulkpowersupply.However,someTCsdobrieflydescribeotherapplicationsthatcouldusesubstantiallythesametechnologyconfiguration.TheseTCsdifferfromEPRI’sTechnicalAssessmentGuide(TAG™)inthattheyprovidemoreextensivediscussionsoftheexpectedtechnologyevolutionthrough2030.However,thecostandperformancedatapresentedherearebeingusedasabasisforTAG™revisionsthatarecurrentlyinprogress.SimilartotheTAG™,theseTCsdonotdescribearecommendedeconomicanalysismethodology,butinsteaddescribevariousapproachesthatcouldbetakentocalculatelevelizedcostofenergyorotherappropriatefinancialfiguresofmerit.Theseapproachesspanarangeofpossibleownershipscenariosinaderegulatedutilityenvironment.CautionaryNote:Thecostandperformanceinformationpresentedrepresentthebestjudgmentsoftheindividualsinvolvedinthepreparationandreviewofthisdocument.Asthesetechnologiesenterthecommercialmarketplace,normalcompetitiveforcesandcommercialexperiencemayhaveimpactsthataredifficulttopredictatthistime.Forexample,thereareindicationsthatpricesforsomeconventionalpower-plantcomponentsandassociatedengineeringservicesaredroppingascompetitioninpowergenerationbecomesmorewidespread.Basedonveryrecentcommercialexperience,thistrendisalreadyreflectedinthegeothermal-hydrothermalflash-steamplantcostspresentedinthisdocument.Similarcostimpactsmaybeobservedinotherrenewablepowerplantsemployingconventionalthermalgenerationcomponentsoncethetechnologiesbecomeestablishedsufficientlytoattractmultiplecommercialsuppliers.Readersareurgedtousecautioninapplyingnumericaldatafromthisdocumentincommercialsituationswithoutconsultingengineeringfirmsactivelyinvolvedinthecommercialmarketplace.RelationshiptoOngoingRenewablesProgramsatDOEandEPRIThetechnologiesdiscussedinthisdocumentareconsideredbytherenewablescommunity,andbythemanagementsoftheDOEandEPRIrenewablesprograms,tohavegoodpotentialforcontributingsignificantlytotheU.S.electricalenergysupply.Consequently,thesetechnologiescontinuetoreceivetechnicalandmarket-developmentsupportwithintheprogramsofDOEandEPRI.Ofcourse,thereisnoguaranteethatallofthesetechnologieswilldevelopandcontributeasprojectedinthisdocument.Rather,theirindividualprospectsandroleswilldependnotonlyonthedegreeofsupportreceived,butalsoonthepaceofprogressandonsocietalneedsandpriorities.Ultimately,themarketplace,reflectingbothcommercialandsocietalforces,willdecide.Development-SupportAssumptionTheprojectedprogressforthesetechnologiesisbasedontheassumptionthatrobustprogramscontinueinbothtechnologyandmarketdevelopment.Ingeneral,theseprogramsneedbothpublicandprivatesectorsupport,withthebalanceshiftingmoretowardthecommercialsectorastechnicalmaturityisapproached.Ifsupportforaparticulartechnologyiscurtailed,thentheprojectedprogressalmostcertainlywillnotoccur.深1.3着Gene角ric磁Bene切fits毅and虫Iss蚁ues谈The钓bene腔fits柿of同usin只gre骨newa膛ble泛ener绵gyr僵esou惊rces础are羊man驰y.M娃ost润oft沟hese炭ben席efit环sar延ise间from绢the餐irv约irtu斯ally搁ine躁xhau早stib揭len该atur易e.S碗olar井and托win师dre数sour治ces咬are律repl责enis括hed著ona姓dai焰lyb马asis责.Bi芝omas隆sca膊nbe麻gro笑wnt瑞hrou临ghm菌anag钥eda摩gric味ultu绒ral盏prog翼rams序to猛prov茶ide忽cont档inuo乘uss侮ourc茄eso纺ffu桃el.王Geot包herm钞alp椒ower瑞is煮extr旅acte抬dfr斑omt卖hev琴irtu况ally暗unl抖imit稀edt赛herm思ale姿nerg药yin故the骂ear驻t桐h鞭’冬scr评ust.咸Ren左ewab伤lee棍nerg悟yre腾sour水ces铸are暴broa姑dly紫avai增labl坏eac凳ross该the滋U.S镰.Ce刚rtai懒nre径gion五s,h摘owev砌er,渠tend庙to乓have报mor斩eac昏cess默ible逆res库ourc减eof幻one笨typ末eth似ana随noth秋er.淡Figu悟re1溪ill匠ustr饮ates掏thi暗sdi绣vers描ity.幅For龄exa注mple辽,in肠the曾Mid易west冲,bi灰omas招san宫dwi肉ndr疾esou梦rces悬are代exc常elle贵nt,脾asi愈sth徐eso志lar距radi单atio位nne财eded技for受fla仗t-pl鸭ate术phot漂ovol纳taic楼s.I仍nth印eSo巧uthw杠est,敢hig架hle醋vels或of泛dire鄙ctn延orma弹lin三sola雹tion判are把跨idea敢lly等suit螺edt语oso强lar摩ther星mal矿and不sun朋ligh驳t-co奖ncen屈trat如ion虚phot碧ovol疼taic耗tec糟hnol青ogie恭s.G极eoth准erma路lre兆sour甘ces陷are遣conc贼entr这ated晒in菠the贼west云ern肠part效sof孝the追U.S钳.Th叫eav舍aila剩bili糟tyo农fea羡cho胞fth昌ere误newa牛ble帜reso序urce战sis邀exp尊lore滤dfu不rthe荒rin巡the公tec茫hnol凤ogy搞over朱view卫sin莫thi迈sdo艺cume朝nt.幻The蜜bene物fits屋of利rene肿wabl悟een轻ergy值ext社end贝beyo贼nda调bund功ance搏and烟div呆ersi甜ty.侮Asi那ndig击enou喷s季reso蛙urce唯s,t领hey沉fost掌erb钩oth慈loca码lco敢ntro缓lan去dec猪onom魄icg踢rowt率h.A舅nin拦vest焰ment荐in豆rene抢wabl天een叼ergy倚con僻trib寸utes畅to拒loca解lec惹onom旁ics瑞ecur辉ity.输In抱addi沈tion尘,th圈ein拜corp榨orat填ion饺ofr丑enew萝able汽sin屯ag摊ener巾atio栋npo钱rtfo系lio慌may模redu速cet坚her扫isks蠢ass雷ocia亏ted闷with法flu惕ctua鹊ting筒fos举sil-果fuel续pri棚ces僵and导supp种lies蚊.命Asr占enew书able旨ene凑rgy哥tech香nolo假gies尿bec爹ome蕉more层cos苹t-co食mpet扁itiv香e,t骂heir都tru撕eec储onom猎icb斤enef庙its董are印bein创gre晕aliz静ed.者Sinc宅ema造nyr五enew箱able绪ene逼rgy纵plan划tsd妈ono场tne渣edt笔obe纺bui臣lti苗nla嘱rge逢scal盐eto愁ach攀ieve余the烛low献est础poss恳ible奇pla兆ntc朋osts羽,th侧eyc勤anb详ebu必ilt少ins艰ize嘱incr缝emen敲tsp滨ropo狗rtio恰nate颈to协load春gro洲wth拜patt灭erns扰and椒loc辩aln竖eeds历.Th天isi女sof昆ten倡refe振rred瘦to廉ast宰heir齐mod缓ular滤ity.英Giv络ent和heir穴sma胀ller雨siz孕e,t滴hey半can眠also嫁be夕loca射ted岔clos组ert姜oth珠ecu千stom顷erl医oad,立red晚ucin诞gin雅fras扯truc建ture裁cos龙tsf隔ort冈rans泉miss层ion费and采dist闹ribu碎tion双,an订dhe由lpin绕gto丰gua号rant庄eel挥ocal筑pow杠err惹elia备bili旅tya葵ndq膜uali血ty.蚁Such闸忘“麻dist姓ribu细te任d竖”滨app夸lica井tion冷sap乏pear售to助have刻ap窄oten灭tial努lyh重igh旬econ装omic脊val念ueb垮eyon嫂dju护stt侧hev腾alue娘of运the雷elec青tric退ity丰gene晴rate植d.胜Seve朝ral捐oft肤her作enew锹able残ene师rgy工tech余nolo霸gies裙,na表mely贺pho甲tovo跃ltai模cs,板sola饺r-th亏erma壁lan甜dwi妨nd,巩prod崖uce谜noe舅miss赤ions干dur惨ing炼powe立rge急nera数tion邮.Bi朵omas倚spl徒ants括,wi概tha铅pro伙perl虫yma堂nage暴dfu增elc签ycle新and赠mod问ern同emis流sion从con小trol抹s,p祸rodu飘cez军ero亿net晨carb雁one灭miss妖ions因and额min瞒imal悲amo羽unts草of户othe腰rat玉mosp覆heri绕cef山flue尾nts.战The估sit环uati偷oni栏smu能cht牢hes努ame滤for促geot户herm妙alp处lant票s.W苍hen胜thes控ete春chno弦logi债esd砌ispl秘ace稿foss岔ilf调uels态,th赶eya希void卸emi凶ssio丢nst立hat纸woul宗dot荣herw衣ise聋beg梳ener迈ated批.Wi菜tht博heg绵rowi馒ngc扭once树rna说bout井cli拘mate彼cha记nge曲and宾carb坦one笛miss嗽ions封,r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