某咨询为某外企做的电冰箱行业战略报告

CONFIDENTIALIndustrySituationAnalysis:RefrigeratoraaaaaaELECTRONICSCHINA(aaaaaaChina)Thisreportissolelyfortheuseofclientpersonnel.Nopartofitmaybecirculated,quoted,orreproducedfordistributionoutsidetheclientorganizationwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalfromMcKinsey&Company.ThismaterialwasusedbyMcKinsey&Companyduringanoralpresentation;itisnotacompleterecordofthediscussion.aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorKEYMESSAGESRefrigeratormarketisexpectedtogrowat4.6%annuallyfromRMB21billionin2000toRMB26billionin2005.Althoughgrowingatarateashighas31.1%,side-by-siderefrigeratormarketisexpectedtoremainverylimitedinthenext5yearsIngeneral,industryprofitabilityforrefrigeratorismoderate.However,side-by-siderefrigeratorsenjoydoubledigitreturnonsalesExceptside-by-siderefrigerator,refrigeratormarketisledbylocalplayers.However,thereareopportunitiesforMNCstosuccessfullybuilduptheirpositionbyfocusingonmid-to-high-endsegmentsTherefrigeratorindustryisrelatively“low-tech”andhaslowentrybarriers.EntryintoWTOisnotexpectedtohavedirecthugeimpactonthecompetitiveenvironmentWithmarketsharesaround3to4%,aaaaaaismoderatelypositionedinrefrigeratormarket.2aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMARKETASSESSMENTMarketassessmentSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverallenvironmentanalysisMarketdefinition3aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMARKETASSESSMENTSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverallenvironmentanalysisMarketdefinitionEvaluationcriteria,weightandratingAssessmentofmarketattractivenessMarketassessmentProduct/servicedefinitionRelevantregulatoryenvironmentandtrendsRelevanttechnologicalenvironmentandtrendsMarketsizeandgrowthrateKeybuyingfactorsDistributionchannelstructureMarketsharebycompetitorIndustryprofitabilityoreconomics4aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMARKETDEFINITIONProduct/servicedefinitionSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverallenvironmentanalysisMarketdefinitionMarketassessment5aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorPRODUCTSCOPE–WHITEGOODSProductgroupProductcategoryAirconditionerWashingmachineWhitegoodsMicrowavePackagedA/CCentralA/C*Side-by-sideRefrigeratorProductsubcategories*Usedbyresidentialsandsmallbusinesses6aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMARKETDEFINITIONSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverallenvironmentanalysisMarketdefinitionMarketassessmentRelevantregulatoryenvironmentandtrendsRelevanttechnologicalenvironmentandtrends7aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorLOW-ENDREFRIGERATORMARKETISLIKELYTOBEDOMINATEDBYLOCALCOMPETITORS.MNCSCOULDSUCCEEDINTHEMID-TO-HIGH-ENDNICHEMARKETSRegulatoryTrends/issuesImplicationsMarkethasbeenfairlyopenandwillremainsoMostleadingMNCplayersarealreadyinChinaandhavelocalizedtheirproductionandsourcingTechnologicalIngeneral,technologiesforrefrigeratorsarenotverycomplicated,esp.forlow-endproductsTechnologytrendistofocusondigitization,artificialintelligenceandenvironmentalfriendlinessEntrytoWTOisnotexpectedtohavehugedirectimpactoncurrentcompetitiveenvironmentThemarketislikelytobedominatedbylocalplayerswhoaremostlynotasstrongintechnologyasMNCplayersbutstrongerinchannelandsalescapabilities,especiallyinthelow-endsegmentsMNCplayersarelikelytosucceedbybeingnicheplayersandfocusingonmid-to-high-endsegmentsCompetitioninproductinnovationislikelytofocusoncustomizationandlocalization8aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMARKETDEFINITIONSupply(competitor)analysisDemand(customer)analysisOverallenvironmentanalysisMarketdefinitionMarketassessmentMarketsizeandgrowthrateKeybuyingfactorsDistributionchannelstructure9aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorALTHOUGHaaaaaaONDLARGESTMARKETAMONGWHITEGOODS,REFRIGERATORMARKETGROWTHWILLBEMODEST

Source: GFK,SINO-MR,LightIndustryInformationCenter,aaaaaa,fieldinterviews,McKinseyanalysis2000Side-by-sideNon-side-by-siderefrigerators20012002200320042005CAGR(00-05)Percent21,13022,06023,05024,07025,14026,260Key

driversRationaleorassumptionsReplace-mentSincethepenetrationrateinChinaishigh(~80%),particularlyinmajorcities(>100%),majorityofthedemandfornon-side-by-siderefrigeratorswillcomefromreplacementpurchaseIncomegrowthIncreaseinaveragedisposableincomedrivesdemandformid-to-largecapacityandmid-to-highendrefrigeratorsAveragepriceDropsat4%p.a.74961261662172854.64.431.1RefrigeratormarketsizeandgrowthRMBmillions,percentUnitssold(non-side-by-side)millionsAveragesellingprice(non-side-by-side)9.414.313.112.111.110.21,8401,9101,9902,0702,1602,2508.8-4.010aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorTHEMARKETISVERYSATIATEDReplacementislikelytobethekeydriverforfuturedemand

Source: ChinaStatisticsYearbookPenetrationrateinChinaTier1Tier2Tier3WholeChina103%101%87%80%11aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorMID-TO-LARGECAPACITYREFRIGERATORSHAVEBEENCONSUMER'sFAVORITECHOICE

Source: SINO-MR,GfK<100L100%=199819992000Historicalmarketsizebycapacityinmajorcities

Percent,millionunits0.60.50.4100-150L150-180L180-200L200-225L225-250L250-300L>300LCAGR(00-05)Percent8.69.19.4-18.44.5-22.54.9-5.117.38.7-18.4-18.412aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorSIDE-BY-SIDEREFRIGERATORMARKETWILLBEOFVERYLIMITEDSIZE,DESPITEITSHIGHGROWTHRATERMBmillions,percent200020012002200320042005CAGR(00-05)Percent31.1KeydriversRationaleorassumptionsLivingspaceOnlyhouseholdswithkitchensover30m2*areassumedtopossiblyconsiderside-bysiderefrigeratorsHouseholdincomeOnlyhouseholdswithaverageannualincomeoverRMB500,000areassumedtopossiblyconsiderside-by-siderefrigeratorsLifestyleMostwealthypeoplehavemaidswhodogroceryshoppingeverydayandtheyarenotinhighdemandforsuperlargerefrigeratorsPriceDropsat2%p.a. * Constructionarea

Source: ZhongxiTradingCo.,aaaaaa,LufthansaDepartmentStore,Sci-techDepartmentStore,YYSC,teamanalysis3,5004,6806,2608,38011,21015,00033.8UnitssoldSide-by-siderefrigeratormarketsizeandgrowthAveragesellingprice21.020.620.219.819.419.0-2.0KeycustomergroupsChineseeducatedoverseasExpatriatesWealthylocalpeopleKeymarketsBeijingShanghaiGuangzhouShenzhenShenyang13aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorPRICEISTHEDOMINANTFACTORFORCONSUMER’SNON-SIDE-BY-SIDEREFRIGERATORCHOICEWHILEBRANDAWARENESSISMOREIMPORTANTFORSIDE-BY-SIDEREFRIGERATORFactorstoconsiderwhenmakingnon-side-by-siderefrigeratorpurchasingdecisionsPercentofrespondents

Source: IMI,SCSS2000,interview47282623191714141074BrandimagePriceCapacityEnergy-savingExteriordesignLownoiseNofrostAfter-salesserviceNon-CFCsFreezercapacityOtherKBFsforsidebysiderefrigeratorSoftcommercials,suchasputtingaside-by-siderefrigeratorintheclubofhigh-endresidentialareaisveryeffectiveinincreasingtheawarenessManypotentialcustomersarenotfullyawareoftheexistenceofside-by-siderefrigeratorsinChinamarketWhenmakingpurchasedecisions,thekeyfactorsthatcustomersconsiderarebrand,designandfeatureMr.GuYongGuyManagerZXHYTradingCo.14aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorDIRECTCOOLINGISSTILLTHEPREFERREDCHOICEACROSSTHEMARKETPercent

Source: SINO-MR;GfK,fieldinterviewNorthWestEastChinaAlthoughindirect-coolingrefrigeratorisfrost-free,ittendstodryupthefood.Asaresult,itisparticularlyunpopularinlesshumidareassuchasNorthernChinaNorthEastNorthChinaSouthWestCentralWestMarketshareofdirectcoolingrefrigeratorsinmajorcities,200015aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorCHANNELSTRUCTUREFORREFRIGERATORSISFLAT,ESPECIALLYFORLOCALPLAYERS

Source: InterviewManufacturersFirsttierdistributorsRetailersLocalmanufacturers=70-80%MNCmanufacturers=30-50%DepartmentstoresHypermarketsSpecialtystoresOthersLocalmanufacturers=20-30%MNCmanufacturers=50-70%16aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorAMONGALLRETAILCHANNELS,HYPERMARKETSANDSPECIALTYSTORESAREEXPECTEDTOGROWFASTINTHENEARFUTURESalesdistributionbychannel---whitegoodsPercentHypermarketsSpecialtystores*DepartmentstoresOthers5199820002003E * IncludeselectronicchainssuchasGuomeiandDazhong Source: Saaaaaa17aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorDISTRIBUTIONSTRUCTUREFORSIDE-BY-SIDEREFRIGERATORSDIFFERBYTIERCITIESTier1citiesManufacturers1sttierdistributorsRetailers2ndtierdistributors20%70%Endusers10%Manufacturers1sttierdistributorsRetailers100%Tier2cities

Source: Fieldinterview18aaaaaa010807BJ-refrigeratorKELON'sCHANNELSTRUCTUREFORREFRIGERATORS

Source: Annualreport,fieldinterviews RongshengKeloniscurrentlyexploringotherchannelstrategies:SetupsalesanddistributioncompanieswithdistributorsCooperatewithlargeretailerssuchasCarrefourandGuomei

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