国外组织行为学课件

Chapter11DecisionMakingCopyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第一页，共七十七页。LearningObjectivesDefinedecisionmakinganddifferentiatewell-structuredandill-structuredproblems.Compareandcontrastperfectlyrationaldecisionmakingwithdecisionmakingunderboundedrationality.Discusstheimpactofframingandcognitivebiasesonthedecisionprocess.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二页，共七十七页。LearningObjectives4. Explaintheprocessofescalationofcommitmenttoanapparentlyfailingcourseofaction.5. Considerhowemotionsandmoodaffectdecisionmaking.Summarizetheprosandconsofusinggroupstomakedecisions,withattentiontothegroupthinkphenomenonandriskassessment.Discusstechniquesforimprovingorganizationaldecisionmaking.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三页，共七十七页。WhatIsDecisionMaking?Decisionmakingistheprocessofdevelopingacommitmenttosomecourseofaction.Threethingsarenoteworthyaboutdecisionmaking:Itinvolvesmakingachoiceamongseveralactionalternatives.Itisaprocess.Itinvolvesacommitmentofresources.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四页，共七十七页。WhatIsDecisionMaking?(continued)Decisionmakingcanalsobedescribedasaprocessofproblemsolving.Aproblemexistswhenagapisperceivedbetweensomeexistingstateandsomedesiredstate.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五页，共七十七页。Well-StructuredProblemsAproblemforwhichtheexistingstateisclear,thedesiredstateisclear,andhowtogetfromonestatetoanotherisfairlyobvious.Theseproblemsaresimple,andtheirsolutionsarouselittlecontroversy.Theyarerepetitiveandfamiliarandtheycanbeprogrammed.Aprogramisastandardizedwayofsolvingaproblem.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六页，共七十七页。Well-StructuredProblems(continued)Programsshort-circuitthedecision-makingprocessbyenablingthedecisionmakertogodirectlyfromproblemidentificationtosolution.Theyarealsoknownasrules,routines,standardoperatingprocedures,orrulesofthumb.Theyprovideausefulmeansofsolvingwellstructuredproblems.Programsareonlyasgoodasthedecision-makingprocessthatledtotheadoptionoftheprograminthefirstplace.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第七页，共七十七页。Ill-StructuredProblemAproblemforwhichtheexistinganddesiredstatesareunclearandthemethodofgettingtothedesiredstateisunknown.Uniqueandunusualproblemsthathavenotbeenencounteredbefore.Theytendtobecomplexandinvolveahighdegreeofuncertainty.Theyfrequentlyarousecontroversyandconflict.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第八页，共七十七页。Ill-StructuredProblem(continued)Theycannotbesolvedwithprogrammeddecisions.Decisionmakersmustresorttonon-programmeddecisionmaking.Theycanentailhighriskandstimulatestrongpoliticalconsiderations.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第九页，共七十七页。TheCompleatDecisionMaker–ARationalDecision-MakingModelArationaldecisionmakermightuseamodelthatinvolvesasequenceofstepsthatarefollowedwhenmakingadecision.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十页，共七十七页。TheRationalDecisionMakingProcessCopyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十一页，共七十七页。PerfectRationalityPerfectrationalityisadecisionstrategythatiscompletelyinformed,perfectlylogical,andorientedtowardeconomicgain.TheprototypeforperfectrationalityistheEconomicPersonwhoistheperfect,cool,calculatingdecisionmaker.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十二页，共七十七页。PerfectRationality(continued)EconomicPersoncharacteristics:cangatherinformationwithoutcostandiscompletelyinformed;isperfectlylogical;andonlycriterionfordecisionmakingiseconomicgain.Theseperfectlyrationalcharacteristicsdonotexistinrealdecisionmakers.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十三页，共七十七页。BoundedRationalityHerbertSimonrecognizedthattherationalcharacteristicsofEconomicPersondonotexistinrealdecisionmakers.Hesuggestedthatmanagersuseboundedrationality.Boundedrationalityisadecisionstrategythatreliesonlimitedinformationandthatreflectstimeconstraintsandpoliticalconsiderations.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十四页，共七十七页。BoundedRationality(continued)Framingandcognitivebiasesillustratetheoperationofboundedrationality,asdoestheimpactofemotionsandmoodondecisions.Framingreferstotheaspectsofthepresentationofinformationaboutaproblemthatareassumedbydecisionmakers.Howproblemsanddecisionalternativesareframedcanhaveapowerfulimpactonresultingdecisions.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十五页，共七十七页。CognitiveBiasesCognitivebiasesaretendenciestoacquireandprocessinformationinaparticularwaythatispronetoerror.Theyconstituteassumptionsandshortcutsthatcanimprovedecision-makingefficiency,buttheyfrequentlyleadtoseriouserrorsinjudgment.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十六页，共七十七页。ProblemIdentificationandFramingBoundedrationalitycanleadtothefollowingdifficultiesinproblemidentification:Perceptualdefence.Problemdefinedintermsoffunctionalspecialty.Problemdefinedintermsofsolution.Problemdiagnosedintermsofsymptoms.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十七页，共七十七页。ProblemIdentificationandFraming(continued)Whenaproblemisidentified,itisframedinsomeway.A$10,000expenditurecanbeframedasacostoraninvestment.Differentdecisionframescanleadtoverydifferentdecisions.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十八页，共七十七页。ProblemIdentificationandFraming(continued)Rationaldecisionmakersshouldbeveryself-consciousabouthowtheyhaveframedproblems.Theyshouldtryoutalternativeframes.Theyshouldavoidoverarching,universalframes.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第十九页，共七十七页。InformationSearchTheperfectlyrationaldecisionmakerhasfreeandinstantaneousaccesstoallinformationnecessarytoclarifytheproblemanddevelopalternativesolutions.Boundedrationalitysuggeststhatinformationsearchcanbeslowandcostly.Decisionmakerscanhavetoolittleortoomuchinformation.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十页，共七十七页。TooLittleInformationSometimes,decisionmakersdonotacquireenoughinformationtomakeagooddecision.Severalcognitivebiasescontributetothissuchasusingwhateverinformationismostreadilyavailableandthetendencytobeoverconfident.Confirmationbiasreferstothetendencytoseekoutinformationthatconformstoone’sowndefinitionoforsolutiontoaproblem.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十一页，共七十七页。TooMuchInformationToomuchinformationcanalsodamagethequalityofdecisions.Informationoverloadisthereceptionofmoreinformationthanisnecessarytomakeeffectivedecisions.Informationoverloadcanleadtoerrors,omissions,delays,andcuttingcorners.Decisionmakersseemtothinkthatmoreisbetter.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十二页，共七十七页。AlternativeDevelopment,Evaluation,andChoiceTheperfectlyrationaldecisionmakerexhibitsmaximization–thechoiceofthedecisionalternativewiththegreatestexpectedvalue.Forthedecisionmakerworkingunderboundedrationality,alternativesolutionsandprobabilitiesofsuccessarenotallknown.Cognitivebiasesalsocomeintoplay.Peopleareespeciallyweakintuitivestatisticians.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十三页，共七十七页。AlternativeDevelopment,Evaluation,andChoice(continued)Peopleavoidincorporatingexistingdataaboutthelikelihoodofevents(“baserates”)intotheirdecisions.Largesampleswarrantmoreconfidencethansmallsamples.Decisionmakersoftenoverestimatetheoddsofcomplexchainsofeventsoccurring.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十四页，共七十七页。AlternativeDevelopment,Evaluation,andChoice(continued)Peoplearepooratrevisingestimatesofprobabilitiesandvaluesastheyacquireadditionalinformation.Theanchoringeffectillustratesthatdecisionmakersdonotadjusttheirestimatesenoughfromsomeinitialestimatethatservesasananchor.Itispossibletoreducesomeofthesecognitivebiasesbymakingpeoplemoreaccountablefortheirdecisions.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十五页，共七十七页。AlternativeDevelopment,Evaluation,andChoice(continued)Theperfectlyrationaldecisionmakercanevaluatealternativesolutionsagainstasinglecriterion–economicgain.Thedecisionmakerwhoisboundedbyrealitymighthavetofactorinothercriteriasuchaspoliticalacceptability.Thedecisionmakerworkingunderboundedrationalityfrequently“satisfices”ratherthanmaximizes.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十六页，共七十七页。SatisficingSatisficingmeansthatthedecisionmakerestablishesanadequatelevelofacceptabilityforasolutiontoaproblemandthenscreenssolutionsuntilheorshefindsonethatexceedsthislevel.Whenthisoccurs,evaluationofalternativesceases,andthesolutionischosenforimplementation.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十七页，共七十七页。RiskyDecisionMakingChoosingbetweendecisionalternativesofteninvolvesanelementofrisk.Whenpeopleviewaproblemasachoicebetweenlosses,theytendtomakeriskydecisions.Whenpeopleframethealternativesasachoicebetweengainstheytendtomakeconservativedecisions.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十八页，共七十七页。RiskyDecisionMaking(continued)Itisimportanttobeawareofwhatreferencepointyouareusingwhenyouframedecisionalternatives.Framingaproblemasachoicebetweenlossescancontributetoafoolishlevelofrisktaking.Learninghistorycanmodifypreferencesfororagainstrisk.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第二十九页，共七十七页。SolutionImplementationDecisionmakersareoftendependentonotherstoimplementtheirdecisions,anditmightbedifficulttoanticipatetheirabilityormotivationtodoso.Implementationproblemsoftenoccurwhenthosewhomustimplementadecisionarenottheoneswhomadethedecision.Cross-functionalteamscanhelppreventthesekindsofimplementationproblems.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十页，共七十七页。SolutionEvaluationTheperfectlyrationaldecisionmakershouldbeabletoevaluatetheeffectivenessofadecisionwithcalm,objectivedetachment.Theboundeddecisionmightencounterproblemsatthisstageoftheprocess:JustificationHindsightCopyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十一页，共七十七页。JustificationSubstantialdissonancecanbearousedwhenadecisionturnsouttobefaulty.Topreventsuchdissonance,decisionmakerssometimesavoidcarefulevaluationsordevotetheirenergytotryingtojustifyafaultydecision.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十二页，共七十七页。SunkCostsThejustificationoffaultydecisionsisbestseenintheirrationaltreatmentofsunkcosts.Sunkcostsarepermanentlossesofresourcesincurredastheresultofadecision.Sincetheseresourceshavebeenlostduetoapastdecision,theyshouldnotenterintofuturedecisions.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十三页，共七十七页。EscalationofCommitmentPeopleoften“throwgoodresourcesafterbad,”actingasiftheycanrecoupsunkcosts.Thisprocessisknownasescalationofcommitmenttoanapparentlyfailingcourseofaction.Escalationofcommitmentreferstothetendencytoinvestadditionalresourcesinanapparentlyfailingcourseofaction.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十四页，共七十七页。EscalationofCommitment(continued)Itcanhappenevenwhenthecurrentdecisionmakerisnotresponsibleforprevioussunkcostsandcanoccurincompetitiveandnon-competitivesituations.Groupsaremorepronethanindividualstoescalatecommitment.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十五页，共七十七页。EscalationofCommitment(continued)Reasonsforescalationofcommitment:Dissonancereduction.Socialnormforconsistentbehaviour.Motivationtonotappearwasteful.Thewaytheproblemisframed.Personality,moods,andemotions.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十六页，共七十七页。PreventingEscalationofCommitmentEncouragecontinuousexperimentationwithreframingtheproblem.Setspecificgoalsfortheprojectinadvancethatmustbemetifmoreresourcesaretobeinvested.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十七页，共七十七页。PreventingEscalationofCommitment(continued)Placemoreemphasisinevaluatingmanagersonhowtheymadedecisionsandlessondecisionoutcomes.Separateinitialandsubsequentdecisionmaking.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十八页，共七十七页。HindsightTheevaluationofdecisionsisalsoinhibitedbyfaultyhindsight.Hindsightreferstothetendencytoreviewthedecision-makingprocessthatwasusedtofindwhatwasdonerightorwrong.Itoftenreflectsacognitivebias.Itisthetendencytoassume,afterthefact,thatweknewallalongwhattheoutcomeofadecisionwouldbe.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第三十九页，共七十七页。Hindsight(continued)Anotherformoffaultyhindsightisthetendencytotakepersonalresponsibilityforsuccessfuldecisionoutcomeswhiledenyingresponsibilityforunsuccessfuloutcomes.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十页，共七十七页。HowEmotionandMoodAffectDecisionMakingStrongemotionsfrequentlyfigureinthedecisionmakingprocess.Emotionscanhelpdecisionmakingbutstrongemotionscanalsobeahindrance.Moodaffectswhatandhowpeoplethinkwhenmakingdecisions.Moodhasthegreatestimpactonuncertain,ambiguousdecisionsofthetypethatareespeciallycrucialfororganizations.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十一页，共七十七页。HowEmotionandMoodAffectDecisionMaking(continued)Researchonmoodanddecisionmakingrevealsthat:Peopleinapositive(negative)moodtendtorememberpositive(negative)information.Peopleinapositive(negative)moodtendtoevaluateobjects,people,andeventsmorepositively(negatively).Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十二页，共七十七页。HowEmotionandMoodAffectDecisionMaking(continued)Peopleinagoodmoodtendtooverestimatethelikelihoodthatgoodeventswilloccurandunderestimatetheoccurrenceofbadevents.Peopleinabadmooddotheopposite.Peopleinagoodmoodadoptsimplified,shortcutdecision-makingstrategies,morelikelyviolatingtherationalmodel.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十三页，共七十七页。HowEmotionandMoodAffectDecisionMaking(continued)Peopleinanegativemoodarepronetoapproachdecisionsinamoredeliberate,systematic,detailedway.Positivemoodpromotesmorecreative,intuitivedecisionmaking.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十四页，共七十七页。RationalDecisionMaking–ASummaryTherationaldecision-makingmodelprovidesagoodguideforhowmanydecisionsshouldbemade.Itprovidesonlyapartiallyaccurateviewofhowtheyaremade.Forcomplex,unfamiliardecisions,therationalmodelprovidesaprettygoodpictureofhowpeopleactuallymakedecisions.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十五页，共七十七页。RationalDecisionMaking–ASummary(continued)Organizationaldecisionmakersoftenfollowtherationalmodelwhentheyagreeaboutthegoalstheyarepursuing.Organizationaldecisionmakersoftenshort-circuittherationalmodel.Trueexpertsinafieldoftenshort-circuittherationalmodel,usingtheirintuitiveknowledgebasetoskipstepslogically.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十六页，共七十七页。PerfectlyRationalDecisionMakingContrastedwithBoundedRationalityCopyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十七页，共七十七页。SummaryofCognitiveBiasesinDecisionMakingCopyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十八页，共七十七页。GroupDecisionMakingManyorganizationaldecisionsaremadebygroups,especiallywhenproblemsareillstructured.Whyusegroupsfordecision-making?Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第四十九页，共七十七页。WhyUseGroups?DecisionQualityGroupsorteamsshouldmakehigher-qualitydecisionsthanindividuals.DecisionAcceptanceandCommitmentAgroupdecisionwillbemoreacceptabletothoseinvolved.Thisisespeciallyimportantingettingadecisionimplemented.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十页，共七十七页。WhyUseGroups?(continued)DiffusionofResponsibilityTheabilityofgroupmemberstosharetheburdenofthenegativeconsequencesofapoordecision.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十一页，共七十七页。DoGroupsActuallyMakeHigher-QualityDecisions?Isthefrequentuseofgroupstomakedecisionswarrantedbyevidence?Groupsshouldperformbetterthanindividualswhen:thegroupmembersdifferinrelevantskillsandabilities,aslongastheydonotdiffersomuchthatconflictoccurs;somedivisionoflabourcanoccur;memoryforfactsisanimportantissue;andCopyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十二页，共七十七页。DoGroupsActuallyMakeHigher-QualityDecisions?(continued)individualjudgmentscanbecombinedbyweightingthemtoreflecttheexpertiseofthevariousmembers.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十三页，共七十七页。DisadvantagesofGroupDecisionMakingTimeThetimeittakestomakeadecisionincreaseswithgroupsize.ConflictDecisionqualitycantakeabackseattopoliticalwranglingandinfighting.Groupswillmakebetterdecisionswhenmembersfeelpsychologicallysafe.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十四页，共七十七页。DisadvantagesofGroupDecisionMaking(continued)DominationWhenmeetingsaredominatedbyasingleindividualorasmallcoalition.Dominationisnotlikelytoleadtogroupacceptanceandcommitment.Ifthedominantpersonismisinformed,thegroupdecisionislikelytobeineffective.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十五页，共七十七页。GroupthinkThecapacityforgrouppressuretodamagethementalefficiency,realitytesting,andmoraljudgmentofdecision-makinggroups.Unanimousacceptanceofdecisionsisstressedoverqualityofdecisions.Victimsofgroupthinkoperateinanatmosphereofunrealitythatshouldleadtolow-qualitydecisions.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十六页，共七十七页。Groupthink(continued)Factorsthatcancausegroupthinkinclude:Highgroupcohesiveness.Strongidentificationwiththegroup.Concernforapprovalfromthegroup.Isolationofthegroupfromothersourcesofinformation.Promotionofaparticulardecisionbythegroupleader(thisappearstobethestrongestcause).Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十七页，共七十七页。GroupthinkSymptomsIllusionofinvulnerabilityRationalizationIllusionofmoralityStereotypesofoutsidersPressureforconformitySelf-censorshipIllusionofunanimityMindguardsCopyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十八页，共七十七页。WhatCanPreventGroupthink?Leadersmustavoidexertingunduepressureforaparticulardecisionoutcomeandconcentrateongooddecisionprocesses.Leadersshouldestablishnormsthatencourageandrewardresponsibledissent.Outsideexpertsshouldbebroughtinfromtimetotimetochallengethegroup’sviews.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第五十九页，共七十七页。HowDoGroupsHandleRisk?Dogroupsmakedecisionsthataremoreorlessriskythanthoseofindividuals?Willthedegreeofriskassumedbythegroupsimplyequaltheaverageriskpreferredbyitsindividualmembers?Groupdecisionscaninvolveriskyandconservativeshifts,andtheyoccurinawidevarietyofsettings.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十页，共七十七页。HowDoGroupsHandleRisk?(continued)Ariskyshiftisthetendencyforgroupstomakeriskierdecisionsthantheaverageriskinitiallyadvocatedbytheirindividualmembers.Aconservativeshiftisthetendencyforgroupstomakelessriskydecisionsthantheaverageriskinitiallyadvocatedbytheirindividualmembers.Whatdetermineswhichkindofshiftoccurs?Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十一页，共七十七页。HowDoGroupsHandleRisk?(continued)Akeyfactorappearstobetheinitialpositionsofthegroupmembersbeforetheydiscusstheproblem.Groupdiscussionseemstopolarizeorexaggeratetheinitialpositionofthegroup:Somewhatconservativemembersexhibitaconservativeshiftwhentheydiscusstheproblem.Somewhatriskymembersexhibitariskyshiftafterdiscussion.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十二页，共七十七页。TheDynamicsofRiskyandConservativeShiftsforTwoGroupsCopyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十三页，共七十七页。HowDoGroupsHandleRisk?(continued)Twomainfactorsexplaintheoccurrenceofriskyandconservativeshifts:Groupdiscussiongeneratesideasandargumentsthatindividualmembershavenotconsideredbefore.Groupmemberstrytopresentthemselvesasbasicallysimilartoothermembersbut“evenbetter.”Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十四页，共七十七页。HowDoGroupsHandleRisk?(continued)Ifthispolarizationresultsfromthesensibleexchangeofinformation,itmightactuallyimprovethegroup’sdecision.Ifitresultsfromone-upmanship,itmightleadtolow-qualitydecisions.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十五页，共七十七页。ImprovingDecisionMakinginOrganizationsOrganizationaldecisionmakingcanimproveifdecisionmakersfollowmorecloselytherationaldecision-makingmodel.Eachofthefollowingtechniqueshasthisgoal:TrainingdiscussionleadersStimulatingandmanagingcontroversyTraditionalandelectronicbrainstormingNominalgrouptechniqueTheDelphitechniqueCopyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十六页，共七十七页。TrainingDiscussionLeadersTheactionsofdiscussionleaderscan“makeorbreak”thedecision.Theuseofrole-playingtrainingtodeveloptheleadershipskillsofdiscussionleaderscanincreasethequalityandacceptanceofgroupdecisions.Peoplelearnavarietyofskillsindiscussionleadertraining.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十七页，共七十七页。StimulatingandManagingControversyThereareavarietyofwaystostimulatecontroversyindecision-makinggroups:Incorporatingmemberswithdiverseideasandbackgrounds.Formingsubgroupsto“teartheproblemapart.”Establishingnormsthatfavourtheopensharingofinformation.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十八页，共七十七页。StimulatingandManagingControversy(continued)Thesetacticsmustbemanagedcarefullytoensurethatopenconflictdoesnotoccur.Adevil’sadvocatecanbeappointedtoidentifyandchallengetheweaknessesofaproposedplanorstrategy.Thecontroversypromotedbythedevil’sadvocateimprovesdecisionquality.Tobeeffective,theadvocatemustpresenthisorherviewsinanobjective,unemotionalmanner.Copyright©2011PearsonCanadaInc.第六十九页，共七十七页。TraditionalBrainstormingBrainstormingisanattempttoincreasethenumberofcreativesolutionalternativestoproblemsbyfocusingonideagenerationratherthanevaluation.Itwasoriginallyconceivedasagrouptechnique.Researchhasshownthatindividualsworkingalonetendtogeneratemorei