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LijunZHOU
ChiefAnalyst
zhoulijun1@
YixinLI
Analyst
liyixin@
+(00)8615910674993
JieWANG
Analyst
wangjie12@
+(00)8617800245028
RuoweiJIANG
TraineeAnalyst/MarketingSpecialist
jiangrw@
+(00)8615801337050
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
LeveragingonYiche’sdeepuserdataandrichindustry-widedataresources,YicheResearchInstituteisChina’sleadingautomarketthinktank.Weprovideconsultationservicesonstrategies,market,productsandcustomerstoglobalautocompanies,autodealers,investmentmanagersandotherstakeholdersintheChineseautomarket.
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INSTITUTE
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YYICHEICHERRESEARCHESEARCHIINSTITUTENSTITUTE
COMPACT
SUV
SEGMENT
？
PREFACE
ForyearsthecompactsedanhasbeencoretoChina’sPVmarket.Manycarmakersdeployedproductlaunchstrategiesaroundthissegment,creatingadiversified,multi-layeredandmulti-facetedproductfootprintutilizingglobalplatformsandlocally-developedconceptscoveringmainstream/nichehigh,mid-andlow-endsegments.
However,overthe2016-2020period,thissegmenthassignificantlyshrunkascompactSUVspickedupmomentum,puttingmanycarmakersinatoughspot.IsthecompactSUVsegmentbecomingthenextcoresegmentofthePVmarket?Whoarereallythecorecustomersinthissegment,andhowshouldcarmakerstacklethissegment?
WeatYRIhavealsoponderedthesequestionsandwouldliketoofferourownperspectives.
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
CompactSUVscouldbecometopPVsegmentinChinain2021
Thankstotheemergenceofpost-80syoungfamilieslookingtobuytheirfirstcarsandadisposablefamilyincomeofaroundonlyRMB100,000,thecompactsedanmarkettookofffrom2007to2016,risingfromannualsalesvolumeofunder2millionunitstomorethan8millionunits;Asthebirthandmarriageratesofthepost-90sgenerationfellsharplyandaveragesellingpricesincreasedtoaboveRMB150,000,though,annualsalesofcompactsedansfocusedonfirst-timebuyers,interiorspaceandpricepromotionsfelloverthenextfouryearstolessthan6millionunitsin2020.JointventuressuchasChang’an-Ford,DPCA,SAIC-GM,FAW-VW,SAIC-VW,Beijing-HyundaiandDongfeng-Yueda-Kiathatreliedonthisstrategyweresignificantlyimpactedassalesatsomeofthesecompaniesfelloffacliff.ThecompactSUVsegmentwasn’tthatstrongeither,butthankstomulti-purposecapabilities,featureupgradesandattractivedesigns,annualsalesremainedatroughly5millionunits;
Theshareofthecompactsedansegmentfellto28.46%in2020whilethatofthecompactSUVsegmentrosetonearly25%.Duetofactorssuchasshrinkingpopulationofyoungpeople,consumptionupgradeandfallinginfluenceoffirst-timebuyers,theshareofthecompactsedansegmentin2021willfurtherdecline.Mid-sizesedansandSUVs,bothataround11%ofthemarket,areunlikelytoimpactthecompactsedan/SUVsegments.Therefore,thecompactSUVsegmentwilllikelysurpassthecompactsedansegmentandbecomethetopmarketsegmentin2021.
EndUserSalesofCompact
Sedans&SUVs2007-2020
(10,000units)
CompactSedan
CompactSUV
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E
Source:Registration/CompulsoryInsuranceData
ShareofEndUserSalesbyVehicleType2020
Mid-toLargeSUV
2.85%
Mid-toLargeSedan
3.95%
MPV
5.04% CompactSedan
28.46%
SmallSUV
7.25%
MidsizeSUV
11.25%
CompactSUV
MidsizeSedan
24.98%
11.69%
Source:CompulsoryInsuranceData
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
CompactSUVsegment
facessameissueofshrinkingfirst-timebuyersin2021~2026,
mustadapttouserevolution
TheshareofPVsalesinChinapurchasedbyfirst-timebuyersfellfrom65%in2014to40%in2020.Thedropinthatproportioninthecompactsedansegment,thetopPVsegment,wassignificantlyworseassalesfelloffacliff.ThecompactSUVsegmentalsofaredworsethantheoverallPVsegment,butslightlybetterthanthecompactsedansegment,maintainingstablesalesvolumes;
ButthatdoesnotmeansmoothsailingforthecompactSUVsegmentfromhereonout.ThedeclineintheshareofPVsalesfromfirst-timebuyerswillcontinuetoacceleratein2021-2026.OEMswhodependheavilyoncompactSUVsmustadapttochangingusertastes.
ChinaPVs
2014
Re-
2020
Re-
First-Time
purc
First-Time
Trade-in
purc
Trade-inhase
hase
65% 25% 10% 40% 40% 20%
CompactSedan
2014
Re-
2020
Re-
First-Time
purc
First-Time
Trade-in
purc
Trade-inhase
hase
89% 10% 1% 64% 33% 3%
CompactSUV
2014
Re-
2020
Re-
First-Time
purc
First-Time
Trade-in
purc
Trade-inhase
hase
79% 19% 2% 53% 42% 5%
Source:YicheOnlineSurvey+YicheBigData
Samplesizeusefamilyasaunit,femalemembersaretreatedasre-purchasecustomers
2026 Re-
purc
First-Time Trade-in hase
20% 45% 35%
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
Small-townmiddle-agebuyers:
newforcewithinfirst-timebuyers
&newbedrockforcompactSUVsegment
Theshareoffirst-timebuyersisexpectedtofallto20%by2026,andthatsharewithinsmall-townyouth,bigcityyouthandsmall-townmiddle-agedsegmentswillshrinkbyvaryingdegrees.Whilethat’shappening,theshareofsalespurchasedbysmall-townmiddle-agedbuyerswillincreaseto40%by2026.Thiscohortwillreplacesmall-townyouthsasanewdrivingforce;
Small-townmiddle-agedbuyerswillbecomethenewbedrockformaintainingcompactSUVsalesoverthenext5years.HowevercurrentlymostofthecorebuyersofcompactSUVsarestillsmall-townyouthsbuyingforthefirsttime.TheyhaveentirelydifferenttastesoncompactSUVscomparedtosmall-townmiddle-agedbuyers,OEMsmustoptimizeproductrolloutsaccordingly.
ContributionofFirst-TimeBuyers
ContributionofFirst-TimeBuyers
toOverallPVMarket
toInternalSales
BigCityMiddle-Aged/Elderly
BigCityYouth
BigCityMiddle-Aged/Elderly
BigCityYouth
SmallTownMiddle-Aged/Elderly
Small-TownYouth
SmallTownMiddle-Aged/Elderly
Small-TownYouth
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
2014
2020
2026E
2014
2020
2026E
Small-TownYouthvs.Small-TownMiddle-Aged
PurchaseFactors,H12020
SmallTownYouth
SmallTownMiddle-Age
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Price
Fuel
Brand
Maintenance
Word
Space
SafetyExteriorPower
FeaturesResidual
ComfortInteriorHandlingOther
Consumption
/Repair
ofMouth
Value
Source:YicheOnlineSurvey+YicheBigData
Samplesizeusefamilyasaunit,femalemembersaretreatedasre-purchasecustomers
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
Bigcity/small-townmiddle-agedbuyers:
newforcewithintrade-inbuyers
&newbedrockforcompactSUVsegment
TheshareofChina’sPVsalespurchasedbytrade-inbuyersisexpectedtoriseto45%by2026,ledbysmall-town&bigcitymiddle-agedbuyers,whowillaccountfor36%and33%respectivelyofthetrade-inbuyercohort,thereforebecomingthenewbedrockforsustainingcompactSUVsales;
Currentlyfirst-timebuyersdominateChinsebrandsales,itisonlynaturalthattheproportionofsalesfromtrade-inbuyerswouldincrease.WhiletheoppositeistrueforforeignbrandcompactSUVsbuttheirproductsmustevolveandupgradeaccordingly;
Small-townandbigcityyouthsofthepastdecadearenowbecomingolder,middle-agedpeoplewithricherlifeexperiences.
Theymustbeapproacheddifferently.
ContributionofTrade-inBuyers
ContributionofTrade-inBuyers
toOverallPVMarket
toInternalSales
BigCityMiddle-Aged/Elderly
BigCityYouth
BigCityMiddle-Aged/Elderly
BigCityYouth
SmallTownMiddle-Aged/Elderly
Small-TownYouth
SmallTownMiddle-Aged/Elderly
Small-TownYouth
50%
100%
45%
90%
40%
80%
35%
70%
30%
60%
25%
50%
20%
40%
15%
30%
10%
20%
5%
10%
0%
0%
2014
2020
2026E
2014
2020
2026E
BigCityYouthvs.BigCityMiddle-AgePurchaseFactors,H12020
BigCityYouthBigCityMiddle-Age
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Brand Design Price Features Power Word Handling Space Safety Interior Fuel Comfort Residual Maintenance Other
ofMouth Consumption Value /Repair
Source:YicheOnlineSurvey+YicheBigData
Samplesizeusefamilyasaunit,femalemembersaretreatedasre-purchasecustomers
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
Bigcitymiddle-agedbuyers:
newforcewithinre-purchasebuyers
&newbedrockforcompactSUVsegment
TheshareofChina’sPVsalespurchasedbyexistingownerswillriseto35%by2026,becominganewblueoceanmarket.Thefocuswillincreasinglytilttowardbigcitymiddle-agedbuyers(especiallyfemales),whowillaccountfortwo-thirdsofthemarket,becomingthenewbedrockforthecompactSUVsegment:
WiththeexceptionofluxurycompactSUVsbenefitingfromfemaleownersmakingadditionalpurchases,noneoftheotherbrands–beitChinsebrandsormainstreamforeignbrands–offercompactSUVmodelsdedicatedtore-purchasebuyers.ThesurprisingsuccessoftheWEYTank300off-roaderfromGreatWallMotorinJanuary2021indicatesthefactthatcompactSUVshavethepotentialto“steal”buyersthatarelookingtomakeadditionalpurchases,andmoremodelsinthefutureshouldservetheneedsofthatparticularsegment;
Whenitcomestoaestheticsandtaste,womenseemtohaveanadvantageovermen.Sooncefemalebuyersbecomethecoreofthe“re-purchase”buyercohort,compactSUVsthatusedtocatertomaletastesmustnowthinkaboutfemaletastes.
ContributionofRe-purchase
ContributionofRe-purchase
BuyerstoOverallMarket
BuyerstoInternalSales
BigCityMiddle-Aged/Elderly
BigCityYouth
BigCityMiddle-Aged/Elderly
BigCityYouth
SmallTownMiddle-Aged/Elderly
Small-TownYouth
SmallTownMiddle-Aged/Elderly
Small-TownYouth
40%
100%
35%
80%
30%
25%
60%
20%
40%
15%
10%
20%
5%
0%
0%
2014
2020
2026E
2014
2020
2026E
Malevs.FemalePurchaseFactors,Q1-Q32020
BigCityYouth
BigCityMiddle-Age
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Brand SmartTech Exterior Energy Interior Price Features Wordo Comfort Safety Quality Maintenance Power Space Residual Handling
-Saving/Green fMouth /Repair Value
Source:YicheOnlineSurvey+YicheBigData
Samplesizeusefamilyasaunit,femalemembersaretreatedasre-purchasecustomers
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
40
Theaverageageof Thatwillincreaseto
carbuyersin2020 about40by2026.
wasaround35.
Olderbuyers:
hugesocialcontextbehindnewbedrockforcompactSUVs
Thepost-60sand80sgroupsarethemostpopulousinChina.Allpost-60spopulationareatleast50yearsoldandareheadedtowardtheageof60,whileallpost-80spopulationareatleast30yearsoldandareheadedtowardtheageof40.Theriseinaverageageofcarbuyersisdirectlycorrelatedwiththeriseinaverageageofthegeneralpopulation.
Theaverageageofcarbuyersin2020wasaround35.Thatwillincreasetoabout40by2026.China’sPVmarketwillsoonentertheso-calledmiddle-agedominatedmarketwheresmall-townyouthswillbethebedrockoffirsttimebuyersofcompactSUVs,small-town/bigcitymiddle-agedbuyerswillbethebedrockoftrade-inbuyersofcompactSUVsandbigcitymiddle-agedbuyerswillbethebedrockofexistingownersmakingadditionalpurchasesforcompactSUVs.
Thisisaninevitabletrendandcarmakersshouldembracethesemiddle-agedbuyingpopulationwithalltheirmight.
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
2017 2022 2027
PopulationDistribution PopulationDistribution(est.) PopulationDistribution(est.)
95&up
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
Source:NationalBureauofStatistics
2018 2022 2027
VehicleBuyerAgeDistribution VehicleBuyerAgeDistribution VehicleBuyerAgeDistribution
96&up
91-95
86-90
81-85
76-80
71-75
66-70
61-65
56-60
51-55
46-50
41-45
36-40
31-35
26-30
21-25
16-20
11-15
6-10
0-5
Source:End-UserSales
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
ToppriorityforcompactSUVsin2021-2026:
seizeoldermaletrade-inbuyers
Theshareofsmall-townandbigcitymiddle-agedbuyers,primarilymen,areexpectedtoincreasefrom30%in2021to40%in2026.First-timemalebuyersthathelpedincreasethesizeofChina’sPVmarketoverthepastdecadewillturnintotrade-inbuyersoverthenextdecade.Thiscohortofbuyerswillbecomethelargestbuyinggroupoverthenextfiveyears,contributingtoabout37%ofoverallPVsales;
Theso-calledoldermaletrade-inbuyersshouldbeatoptargetcustomergroupforcompactSUVsforthesegmenttomaintainitsstatusasthecorePVsegment;
CompactSUVsespeciallynewmodelsmustcatertotheneedsofoldermiddle-agedbuyerstoholdtheirground.
Evolutionofmale/femalePVbuyersbycity/age
2014
2020
2026
Small-Town
BigCity
Small-Town
BigCity
Small-Town
BigCity
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
18%
7%
14%
6%
11%
9%
22%
18%
7%
3%
19%
11%
30%
10%
20%
10%
20%
5%
19%
11%
8%
2%
12%
8%
Small-Town
BigCityYouth
Small-Town
BigCityYouth
Small-Town
BigCityYouth
Youth
Youth
Youth
Evolutionofmale/femalePVownersbyfirst-time/trade-in/re-purchasebuyergroup
MaleTrade-inBuyers
OtherMaleBuyers
FemaleBuyers
2014
2020
2026
First-Time
Trade-in
Re-purchase
First-Time
Trade-inRe-purchase
First-TimeTrade-in
Re-purchase
29%
9%
13%
11%
48%
17%
6%
30%
37%
24%
11%
4%
7%
8%
11%
10%
17%
8%
Source:YicheOnlineSurvey+YicheBigData
Samplesizeusefamilyasaunit,femalemembersaretreatedasre-purchasecustomers
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
(10,000units)
ChinesebrandcompactSUVs:seize
oldersmall-townmaletrade-inbuyerstoavoidimpactfromshrinkingsmall-townyouthbuyers
Theshareofsmall-townandbigcitymiddle-agedbuyers,primarilymen,areexpectedtoincreasefrom30%in2021to40%in2026.First-timemalebuyersthathelpedincreasethesizeofChina’sPVmarketoverthepastdecadewillturnintotrade-inbuyersoverthenextdecade.Thiscohortofbuyerswillbecomethelargestbuyinggroupoverthenextfiveyears,contributingtoabout37%ofoverallPVsales;
Theso-calledoldermaletrade-inbuyersshouldbeatoptargetcustomergroupforcompactSUVsforthesegmenttomaintainitsstatusasthecorePVsegment;
CompactSUVsespeciallynewmodelsmustcatertotheneedsofoldermiddle-agedbuyerstoholdtheirground.
Evolutionofmale/femalePVbuyersbycity/age
2014
2020
2026
Small-Town
BigCity
Small-Town
BigCity
Small-Town
BigCity
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
18%
7%
14%
6%
11%
9%
22%
18%
7%
3%
19%
11%
30%
10%
20%
10%
20%
5%
19%
11%
8%
2%
12%
8%
Small-Town
BigCityYouth
Small-Town
BigCityYouth
Small-Town
BigCityYouth
Youth
Youth
Youth
Source:YicheOnlineSurvey+YicheBigData
Samplesizeusefamilyasaunit,femalemembersaretreatedasre-purchasecustomers
ChineseBrandCompactSUVEnd-UserSales2007~2020
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Chang’anCS75PLUS&HavalBigDogEnd-UserSales(10,000units)
4
3
Chang’an
CS75PLUS
2
Haval
1
BigDog
0
201901
201904
201907
201910
202001
202004
202007
202010
Source:Registration/CompulsoryInsuranceData
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
KeytoGWM,
Chang’anorGeelybeingontopin2021-2026:
winningthesmall-towntrade-inwar
incompactSUVsegment
GWM,Chang’anandGeelyareallactivelyexpandingtheirfootprintsinthecompactSUVsegment:GWMissolidifyingitsleadershipinthemainstreamsub-segmentwiththe3rd-GenHavalH6,complementingitwithmodelsliketheF7&F5,seizingtheentrysub-segmentwiththeM6,expandingthecrossoversub-segmentwiththeF7XandBigDog,gainingshareinthehigh-endsub-segmentwiththeVV5&VV6,andtestingthewatersintheoff-roadsub-segmentwiththeTank300;Chang’anissolidifyingitspositioninthemainstreamsub-segmentwiththePLUSversionsofitsCSfamily,addingtoitsentrysub-segmentwithupgradedOshanseries,andtestingthewatersinthecrossoversub-segmentwiththeUNI-T;GeelyoffersthemainstreamBoyue,entry-levelVisionX6,crossoversICON&EmgrandGSandhigh-endLYNK&COmodels;
GWM,Chang’anandGeelyareprettymuchofferingafullsuiteofcompactSUVproducts,butlackstrategicdirection.It’smoreforthesakeoffillingupgapsinvarioussub-segments;
ThecompactSUVsegmentremainsasthecorebattlegroundforChinesebrandsin2021-2026,buttheirstrategicfocusshouldturnawayfromfirst-timebuyerstotrade-inbuyers.ThisisnewtoallChinesebrands.Second-tierChinesebrandssuchasChery,GACTrumpchiandRoewecouldcatchupwithfrontrunnersiftheycanseizeopportunitiesfromoldermalesmall-towntrade-inbuyers;
NewmodelsliketheTank300,iftheycansuccessfullyattractoldermalesmall-town/bigcityre-purchasebuyers,olderfemalebigcityre-purchasebuyersandoldermalebigcitytrade-inbuyers,willbeicingonthecake.
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
Top10ChineseBrandEnder-UserSalesin2020(10,000units)
End-UserSales
YOY%Change
150
100%
100
50%
50
0%
0
-50%
Geely
Chang'an
Haval
Baojun
BYD
Roewe
Wuling
GAC
Chery
RedFlag
Trumpchi
Top10ChineseBrandCompactSUVEnd-UserSalesin2020(10,000units)
End-UserSales
YOY%Change
80
150%
60
100%
40
50%
20
0%
0
-50%
Haval
Chang'an
Geely
Roewe
GAC
Chang'an
BYD
LYNK&CO
Chery
JETTA
Trumpchi
Oshan
Source:CompulsoryInsuranceData
Top3ChineseBrandCompactSUVProductMatrix
GWM
Geely
Chang’an
MainstreamSUV
CrossoverSUV
Off-RoadSUV
VV5
VV6
Tank300
High-End
02
05
Xingyue
01
UNI-T
H6
H4
F7
F5
BigDog
Mainstream
Boyue
F7X
CS75
CS75PLUS
GeometryC
icon
EmgrandGS
CS55
CS55PLUS
Entry
M6
VisionX6
OshanX5
OshanX7
YICHERESEARCHINSTITUTE
ForeignbrandcompactSUVs:aimforolderbigcitymaletrade-inbuyers
CompactsedansstillaccountforthemajorityofsalesofforeignbrandsinChina.Buttheyarefacingadilemmaofashrinkingcompactsedansegmentsince2016anditwillonlygetworseoverthenextfiveyears;
ForeignbrandcompactSUVstargetedatbigcitytrade-inbuyersarebenefitingfromthefactthatsmall-townyouthsareflockingtobigcitiesandbigcityyouthsaregettingolder.ForeignbrandcompactSUVsalesthereforeskyrocketedin
2019-2020,withend-usersalessurpassing2millionunitsthankstostarproductssuchastheHondaBreezelaunchedattheendof2019andToyotaWildlanderatthebeginningof2020.Foreignbrandcompactsedans,however,sawasignificantdeclineinmarketshare.VW’sSUVoffensiveinparticularhelpedtheGermanbrandgainmarketshare;
Thebigcitymiddle-agebuyercohortwillexpandin2021-2026,andforeignbrandsshouldfocustheireffortsonwinningtheolderbigcitymaletrade-inbuyersinthecompactSUVsegment.
Evolutionofmale/femalePVbuyersbycity/age
2014
2020
2026
Small-Town
BigCity
Small-Town
BigCity
Small-Town
BigCity
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
Middle-Aged
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
(Elderly)
18%
7%
14%
6%
11%
9%
22%
18%
7%
3%
19%
11%
30%
10%
20%
10%
20%
5%
19%
11%
8%
2%
12%
8%
Small-Town
BigCityYouth
Small-Town
BigCityYouth
Small-Town
BigCityYouth
Youth
Youth
Youth
Source:YicheOnlineSurvey+YicheBigData
Samplesizeusefamilyasaunit,femalemembersaretreatedasre-purchasecustomers
ForeignBrandCompactSUVEnd-UserSales
End-UserSalesofToyotaWildlander
2007-2020(10,000units)
&H
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