万国邮政联盟：2021年邮政发展报告

PostalDevelopmentReport2021

Takingstockofanewreality

October2021

DIRCAB.STRAT

October2021

Postaldevelopmentreport2021

Takingstockofanewreality

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POSTALDEVELOPMENTREPORT

Aboutthisreport

Thisreportexaminesthestateofpostaldevelopmentaroundtheworldin2021,buildingontheIntegratedIndexforPostalDevelopment(2IPD)whichcurrentlyranks168countriesacrossfourdimensions:reliability,reach,relevanceandresilience.Switzerland,GermanyandAustriatoptheranking,followedbyJapanandFrance.Belarus,Brazil,Ghana,SingaporeandTunisiahavealsoobtainedencouragingresultsandcurrentlyleadtheirrespectiveregionalgroups.Asshownbygreatervolatilitywithintheranking,manypostaloperatorsaroundtheworldarestilladjustingtothenewnormalitybroughtbythepandemic.Thereportexploitstheinformationembeddedinthe2IPD’sreliabilitypillar,whichmeasuresthedeliverytimesofmailitems,toquantifytheoperationaldisruptionscausedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.Themainfindingisthatthelogisticalbottlenecksexperiencedin2020haveseverelyaffectedthereliabilityofpostaloperations,withaveragedomesticdeliverytimesincreasingby13%in2020withrespectto2019,beforereturningtopre-crisislevelsin2021.Theresultsofthereportalsosuggestthat,evenifdisruptionsinglobalsupplychainsareeventuallyabsorbed,gapsinpostaldevelopmentarelikelytoremainaconsiderablechallengeforthesectorinthecomingyears.

Copyright©2021UniversalPostalUnion.Allrightsreserved

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DISCLAIMER:ThispublicationbytheUPUconstitutesresearchinprogressofaninformationalcharacterforwhichnoguaranteesorassurancesareprovided;inthisregard,itshallnotbedeemedtorepresenttheofficialpositionoropinionsoftheUPUoritsstaffmembersorofUPUmembercountries.Moreover,thedepictionanduseofboundaries,geographicnamesandrelateddatashownonmapsandincludedinlists,tables,documentsanddatabasesarenotwarrantedtobeerror-freeanddonotnecessarilyimplyofficialendorsementoracceptancebytheUPU.

Authors:MauroBoffa,FernãoDeBorbaandLukaszPiotrowski.

UNIVERSALPOSTALUNION,2021

Tableofcontents

Glossary4

Introduction5

1-Whatisthe2IPD?6

2-The20212IPDranking8

3-Changesinreliabilityaroundtheworld15

Conclusion17

Appendix1:Regionalclassificationandlistofcountries18

Appendix2:Regionalgraphs19

Appendix3:EstimatingtheimpactoftheCOVID-19pandemiconaveragedeliverytimes21

Appendix4:Methodologyforcalculatingthe2IPD22

Endnotes28

Figuresandtables

Figure1Cumulativedistribution,20212IPD

Figure2Growingdispersioninthe2IPDranking

Figure3Boxplotof2IPDscoresacrossregions

Figure42IPDperformanceinICs

Figure52IPDperformanceinEasternEuropeandtheCIS

Figure62IPDperformanceinAsia-Pacific

Figure72IPDperformanceintheArabregion

Figure82IPDperformanceinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

Figure92IPDperformanceinAfrica

Figure10Postaldevelopmentandeconomicdevelopment

Figure112IPDranking

Figure12COVID-19impactondeliverytimes

Figure13COVID-19impactandrecovery

Figure14Trajectoryofthecoefficientofvariation

Figure15Medianwithin-countryyear-on-yearchangeindomesticdeliverytimesFigure16Regionalevolution:averagecoefficientofvariation,domesticdeliverytimesFigure17Regionalevolution:mediancoefficientofvariation,domesticdeliverytimes

Figure18Regionalevolution:medianyear-on-yearwithin-countrychangeindomesticdeliverytimes

Table120212IPDranking

Table2Statisticaldifferencebetween2019and2020deliverytimes

Table3Estimationresults:averagedeliverytimes

Table4Estimationresults:coefficientofvariation

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POSTALDEVELOPMENTREPORT

Glossary

2IPD

IntegratedIndexforPostalDevelopment

CIS

CommonwealthofIndependentStates

DO

Designatedoperator

EDI

Electronicdatainterchange

EMSEVT

Expressmailserviceevents

EmIS

EmergencyInformationSystem

GDP

Grossdomesticproduct

ICs

Industrializedcountries

IMF

InternationalMonetaryFund

PREDES

Pre-adviceofdispatch

SDR

Specialdrawingrights

UPU

UniversalPostalUnion

USD

UnitedStatesdollar

WDI

WorldDevelopmentIndicators

WHO

WorldHealthOrganization

YoY

Year-on-year

UNIVERSALPOSTALUNION,2021

Introduction

ThebattleagainsttheCOVID-19pandemichasredefinedtheworldeconomy.Atthetimeofwritingthisreport,theoverallpandemicsituationremainsdelicate.iInresponsetotherapidsurgeinrecordedcases,governmentsresortedtodrasticmeasures.

In2020,thepandemic’simpactontheworldeconomy,globaltradeandcross-bordersupplychainswasunprecedented,withalevelofcontractionnotseensincetheSecondWorldWar.iiIntheUnitedNationssystem,therehasalsobeenagrowingconcernthattheachievementoftheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)mightbecompromised.iii

Thepostalsectorwasnotsparedbythismajorcrisis.Sincethepandemicwasdeclared,postaloperatorsaroundtheworldhavehadtodealwithintermittentairtraffic,laboursupplyshortagesandincreasedoperationalcosts.Unlikemanyotherbusinesses,theyhavealsohadtocontinueoperatingduringmostlockdowns,providingservicesdeemedessentialbyauthoritieswhileatthesametimeattemptingtomeetasurgingdemandforthedeliveryofonlineshoppingtransactions.

However,despiteitsessentialnature,thesectorhadalreadybeenfacingtremendouschallengesbeforethepandemic.Postaloperatorswerestrugglingtomaketheirrevenuesgrowatthesamerateasthewiderrealeconomy,ivwhilepostalservicesinmanydevelopingcountrieswereincreasinglyfallingbehindwhencomparedtotheperformanceinwealthiernations.v

Inthiscontext,measuringpostaldevelopmentremainsparamount,andtheUPU’sIntegratedIndexforPostalDevelopment(2IPD)constitutesakeytooltohelppolicymakers,regulatorsandoperatorssteerthecourseofthesectorinanenvironmentofacceleratedtransformation.

Indeed,bytappingintothewiderangeof(big)datacollectedandconsolidatedbytheUPU,the2IPDprovidesacompositepictureofpostaldevelopmentaroundtheworld,witharankingthatreflectstheperformanceoftraditionalpostaloperatorsacrossfourdimensions

(reliability,reach,relevanceandresilience).vi

Historically,theseoperatorshaveprimarilybeen

consideredasvehiclesfordeliveringsocio-

economicdevelopment,representingoneofthe

largestphysicalnetworksintheworld,with

some630,000postofficesand5.25million

employees.

Inthe2021edition,theindexcovers168

countries,withSwitzerland,Germanyand

Austriaatthetop,followedbyJapanand

France.InthevariousUPUregions,Belarus,

Brazil,Ghana,SingaporeandTunisiacurrently

leadthepack.

Notwithstandingtheencouragingresultsofsuch

leadingcountries,disparitiesinpostal

developmentareintensifying,withthe

coefficientofvariationreachingitsmaximum

valuesincethefirstpublicationoftheranking.

Suchdisparitiesarecertainlyduetodifferences

ineconomicdevelopment,butotherfactorsmay

alsobeatplay.Indeed,inindustrialized

countries,postaloperatorstendtooutperform

nationallevelsofeconomicdevelopment,

whereasinAfricaandLatinAmericathe

oppositetrendisatwork.vii

OnemajorsymptomoftheCOVID-19crisisis

perceptibleintheareaofdeliverytimes,which

reflectthereliabilityofpostalservices.Whenthe

pandemicfirststruckin2020,bothspeedand

predictabilitydroppeddramatically,with13%

lengthierdeliverytimesonaverageanda9%

increaseinthecoefficientofvariationofthe

samewithrespectto2019.

In2021,deliverytimesappeartohavereverted

topre-crisislevels;butmoretimewillbeneeded

beforedeclaringa“returntonormal”.

Moreover,evenifthedeteriorationofreliability

throughthecrisisiseventuallyovercome,the

issueofgapsinpostaldevelopmentislikelyto

remainhighontheagendaofpolicymakers,

regulatorsandoperatorsintheyearstocome.

Thisreportisstructuredinfoursections.

Section1discussesthemethodologybehindthe

2IPD.Section2presentstheresultsofthe2021

editionoftheranking.Section3discussesthe

consequencesoftheCOVID-19pandemicin

termsofpostalreliability.Section4concludes

thereport.

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POSTALDEVELOPMENTREPORT

1-Whatisthe2IPD?

Fourpillarsofpostaldevelopment

The2IPDisacomparativeindicatorofpostaldevelopmentaroundtheworld.Itisacompositeindexthatsummarizesinformationabouttheperformanceofpostaloperatorsin168countries.Assuch,the2IPDisauniquetoolforanalyzingthestateofthepostalsector.Thankstoitswidegeographiccoverageandthedepthofitsunderlyingdata,thisindexappealstoamultitudeofstakeholders,frompolicymakersandregulatorstopostaloperatorsandwiderpostalsectorplayers.

The2IPDisbuiltonfourpillars(whichareinturnsustainedbyavarietyofsub-indicators):

–Reliabilityreflectsperformanceintermsofspeedandpredictabilityofdelivery,acrossallthekeysegmentsofphysicalpostalservices(letterpost,parcelpostandexpress).

–Reachsynthesizesglobalconnectivitybyevaluatingthebreadthanddepthofthepostaloperators’internationalnetwork.Thesearemeasuredbythenumberofpartnernetworksandthevolumesofinternationalexchanges,respectively,acrossallthekeysegmentsofphysicalpostalservices.

–Relevancemeasurestheintensityofdemandforthefullportfolioofpostalservicesrelativetothebestperformersineachcategoryofpostalactivity,alsotakingintoaccountelementssuchasthenumberofinternationaltransactionsandthenumberofpostoffices.

–Resilienceindicatesthelevelofdiversificationofrevenuestreams,aswellasthecapacitytoinnovateanddeliverinclusivepostalservices.

Thepurposeofthereliabilitypillaristomeasuretheoperationalefficiencyofpostalservices,showingthedegreetowhichtheyareperformedinatimelyandpredictablemanner.

Thereachpillarcapturesthelevelofinternationalizationoftheseoperations,demonstratingwhetherpostalservicesinthecountryinquestionhaveahighlevelofcross-borderexchanges.

inallkeysegments,andinparticularthe

potentialtogeneratehighervolumes.Countries

possessingarelativelydensernetworkanda

highlevelofpostalconsumptionpercapitawill

showgoodperformanceinthisarea.

Regardingtheresiliencepillar,theintentisto

assesstheabilityofpostalservicestowithstand

externalshocksthroughadaptablebusiness

models.

Overall,thesefourpillarsareaimedatproviding

abalancedviewofpostaldevelopment,without

solelyfocusingonoperational(e.g.delivery),

strategic(e.g.businessportfoliomanagement)or

societalmatters(e.g.financialinclusion).This

enablesthefinalscoretocomprehensively

reflect(whilesuccinctlyexpressing)thesituation

ofpostalservicesinanygivengeography.

Theinputisthenintegratedintoanalgorithm,

whichyieldsageneralscorebetween0and100

foreachassessedcountry.

Datasupportingthepillars

The2IPDdrawsonthefollowingtypesofUPU

data:

–UPUpostalbigdata,namely,trackingdataonpostaltransactionsworldwide;

–OfficialUPUpostalstatisticsandUPUsurveys.

Thefirsttypeisusedmainlytocompute

indicatorsassociatedwithqualityofservice,

transactions,volumesandconnectivity.Itfeeds

thereliabilityandreachpillars.Thesecondtype

appliestothemeasurementofrevenuestreams,

economiesofscale,infrastructureandfinancial

inclusion.

Everyyear,thebestpostaldevelopment

performerobtainsanormalizedmaximumscore

of100,whiletheworstgetstheminimumscore

of0.Thus,thenormalizedscorescanbereadas

theperformanceofanygivencountrycompared

withthebest(scoreof100)orworst(scoreof0)

globalperformer.

Whenitcomestorelevance,thekeygoalisto

evaluatethecompetitivenessofpostalservices

UNIVERSALPOSTALUNION,2021

Comparingpostaldevelopmentaroundtheglobe

Giventhestatisticaldistributionofthe2IPDscores,itispossibletocategorizecountriesinfourmaincategories(seeFigure1):viii

–Postalchampions:Ascoreabove55showsthatacountry’spostaldevelopmentisamongthetop20%intheworld–aperformancewhichcanbeconsideredverygoodtooutstanding.Thisgroupofcountriescanbedenotedashavingawell-balancedperformanceacrossallpillarsofpostaldevelopment.

–Goodperformers:Ascorebetween30and55showsanupper-intermediatelevelofperformance.Thesecountriesareconsistentperformersandbelongtothetop50%.

–Potentialperformers:Ascorebetween15and30showsaperformancethatislowerthanthemedian,withcountriesusuallyperformingonlypartiallywell,albeitwithsomedevelopmentpotential.Mostcountriesinthis

groupexhibitglaringweaknessesinoneormoreareasofpostaldevelopment.

–Leastdevelopedoperators:Ascorebelow15showsthatacountry’spostaldevelopmentisverylow.Thesecountriesarefacingmajorchallengesinseveralofthekeypillarsofpostaldevelopment.

Figure1Cumulativedistribution,20212IPD

Sincethe2IPDisacomparativeindex,theinterpretationofthescoreshastotakeintoaccountfourimportantelements:

makesabsoluteprogressonaspecificdimension

ofthe2IPD,thiswillhaveanimpactonthe

finalrankingifandonlyifitspeershavenot

madeevengreatergainsinperformance.

Second,thepositionofacountryintheglobal

rankingshouldpreferablybeconsideredin

conjunctionwiththeregionalstandingandits

economicdevelopmentlevel.Inthissense,it

maybeunrealistictoexpectcountriestobe

postalchampionsifmostoftheirregionalpeers

arestruggling.

Third,performanceismoreadequately

evaluatedinclusters,suchaswithinoneofthe

fourmaincategoriesmentionedabove(i.e.

postalchampions,goodperformers,potential

performersandleastdevelopedoperators).

Movementsintherankingwithinacategoryare

muchmorelikelythanbetweencategories.For

instance,turningaleastdevelopedoperatorinto

agoodperformerwillusuallyrequirea

substantialtransformation,andwillmostlikely

takeyearsofconsciousandcontinuous

improvementinitiatives.

Fourth,beyondthecomparisonofcountries

solelywithinthe2IPDranking,itmayalsobe

usefultobenchmarkpostaldevelopmentagainst

othermacroeconomicdimensions,inparticular

economicdevelopment.Thismaybeauseful

exercisebecauseitallowsonetomoreclearly

disentanglethoseissuesthatareinherentto

postalservicesfromwidersocio-economic

factorsfacedbyagivencountry.Anexampleof

suchananalysisispresentedinSection2ofthe

presentreport.

Furtherdetailsonthemethodologyusedto

calculatethe2IPDareavailableinAppendix4.

First,thescoresareofarelativenature.Thus,

thepositionofagivencountryisdeterminedby

itsperformancerelativetoitspeers.Ifacountry

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2-The20212IPDranking

COVID-19hasexacerbatedpostal

developmentgaps

The20212IPDrankingcovers168countries(seeTable1),withaglobalaveragescoreof33,vs36in2020.

Onceagain,Switzerlandsecuredthetopspot,slightlydistancingitselffromGermany(2nd,93)andAustria(3rd,91),withJapan(4th,90)andFrance(5th,88.4)completingthetopfive.Thebartoenterthetop10isnowat77.1,slightlybelowthelevelrequiredin2020(77.9).

Bycontrast,thedegreeofdispersionoftheoverallrankinghassteadilyincreased(Figure2),peakingat71%in2021,possiblybecauseofthehavoccreatedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.Indeed,theworldiswitnessingawidening“postaldevelopmentdivide”,withthebest2IPDperformersalsoappearingasthemostresilienttothecrisis.

Figure3Boxplotof2IPDscoresacrossregions

growingdispersionofscoresisindeedaglobal

phenomenoncuttingacrossallhistoricallevels

ofpostaldevelopment.

Industrializedcountries–consolidationat

thetop

Figure42IPDperformanceinICs

Figure2Growingdispersioninthe2IPDranking

ICsformthemosthomogeneousregionalgroupandarecharacterizedbyhighlevelsofpostal

Regionaldifferences

Asinallpasteditionsoftheranking,thegroupofindustrializedcountries(ICs)hasrecordedthehighestaveragescoreat68.25,followedbyEasternEuropeandtheCIS(49.82),Asia-Pacific(28.63),theArabregion(25.62),LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(18.74),andAfrica(17.85).

AlthoughAsia-Pacificremainstheregionwiththegreatestdisparityofperformancebetweencountries,thecoefficientofvariationhasincreasedeverywhere,suggestingthatthe

development.Inthe2021ranking,withanaverageof68.25,thegrouphasthelowestdegreeofdispersionaroundthemean,withacoefficientofvariationof27%.

Asinallpasteditionsoftheranking,Switzerlandretainsthetopspotthankstostellarperformanceacrossalldimensionsofthe2IPD,includingadditionalprogressintermsofreachandresilience.

Germanyhasreachedsecondplace,itsbestperformancesincethecreationoftheranking.Thisismainlyduetoprogressmadeinreach,

UNIVERSALPOSTALUNION,2021

combinedwithcontinuedsuperiorperformanceinreliabilityandrelevance.

Forthesecondyearinarow,Austriaispartofthetopthree.ThisismainlyduetoitsabilitytoretainabalancedshowingacrossallthefourpillarsofpostaldevelopmentinspiteofthemanylogisticalturbulencescausedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.

JapanandFrancecompletethetopfivethankstoveryhighlevelsofreliability,andfurtherprogressintermsofrelevanceinthecaseof

France.

Overall,thetop10remainsunchangedcomparedto2020,with9outof10beingICs.Inanenvironmentofgrowinggapsinpostaldevelopment,thisconcentrationofsuccesswouldsuggestthatthemostdevelopedcountries,evenwithintheICs,areextendingtheirleadandconsolidatingtheircomparativestrengths.

AmongICs,Denmarkhasmadethehighestrelativeprogress,movingfrom53rdto45thplace.Yet,thelowestrankingofthisgroupcorrespondsto83rdplace,confirmingthepatternofintra-regionaldisparitythathasbeenintensifyingacrosstheworld,albeittoalesserextentamongICs.

EasternEuropeandtheCIS–good

performanceinadevelopingregion

withacoefficientofvariationaroundthemean

of29%,i.e.nearlythesamelevelasintheICs.

Ranksinthisregionspanfrom14thto111th

place.

Themainnoveltyof2021hasbeenthe

performanceofBelarus,whichhasforthefirst

timereachedthetopregionalposition,

progressinginreliabilityandresilience,while

benefittingintherankingfromaslightdropin

Poland’sshowing.

Thebestrelativeprogressintheregionwas

madebyLatvia,whichsucceededingaining33

places,jumpingfrom62ndto29thrank,owing

totremendousprogressinreachandreliability.

Asia-Pacific–theheightofheterogeneity

Figure62IPDperformanceinAsia-Pacific

Asia-Pacifichasthethirdbestregionalperformance,withanaveragescoreof28.6.However,thisnumbermaskssignificantdisparities,inwhatisthemostheterogeneousregionofall,aswitnessedbyacoefficientofvariationof76%.Withcountriesrangingfrom10thto166thplace,thesituationofAsia-Pacificissymptomaticoftheextremegapsinpostaldevelopmentwhichareaffectingthewholeworld.

Indeed,ontheonehand,Singaporeoutperformsmostglobalandregionalpeers,withaworld-classshowinginreliability,reachandresilience.Ontheotherhand,atthebottomoftheranking,thePacificIslandsarestrugglingtoimprovetheirdeliverytimes,reachandrelevance.

Figure52IPDperformanceinEasternEuropeand

theCIS

FollowingcloselybehindthegroupofICs,

countriesinEasternEuropeandtheCISalso

benefitfromahighaveragescore(49.8).

Moreover,theregionisrelativelyhomogeneous,

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Figure72IPDperformanceintheArabregion

Figure82IPDperformanceinLatinAmericaandthe

Caribbean

Arabregion–movingup

TheArabregionisstillthefourthbestperformingregion,withanaveragescoreof25.6,i.e.belowtheglobalaverage.Yet,thisisoneoftheregionsthathaveshownthegreatestdegreesofdynamisminrecentyears.

Tunisia,ranked44thglobally,stillholdsthelead;followedbyeightcountrieswithscoresabovetheregionalaverage.Iraq,theComorosandMoroccohaveexperiencedthehighestrelativeprogressionintheirranking,jumpingby26,13and11places,respectively.

At51%,theregion’scoefficientofvariationremainshigh,butstillbelowthatobservedinAfricaandLatinAmerica.

Relevanceremainstheregion’sweakestpillar.Inallotherdimensions,theaverageisratherclosetotheperformanceoftheAsia-Pacificregion.

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean–a

difficultCOVID-19recovery

Theregionisfacingaverychallenginglandscape,asmanyoperatorshavebeendeeplyaffectedbytheCOVID-19pandemic.Thisisreflectedintheaveragescoreof18.7,downfrom23.18in2020,andthelowestsincethecreationoftherankingin2017.Dispersionaroundthemeanisveryhighat62%,withranksrangingfrom48thto160th.

Brazilholdsthetopregionalspot,thankstocontinuedstrongresilience,aswellaseffortstomaintainreliabilityandreachinspiteoftheshockcausedbythepandemic.Colombiahas

thesecondoverallscore,whileleadingthe

regionintermsofdeliverytimes.

Astheexampleofthesecountriesshows,strong

performanceinthelongtermrequiresa

balancedshowingacrossalldimensionsofthe

2IPD;however,itisusuallythrough

improvementsinreliabilityandreachthatgood

performersinthesecondtieroftherankingcan

progressrapidly,fromoneyeartoanother.

Africa–persistingchallenges

Africawasalsosignificantlyaffectedbythe

COVID-19pandemic.Theaverageregional

scorenowstandsat17.9,thelowestsincethe

creationoftheranking.At63%,dispersion

aroundthemeanisthehighestofall,withranks

rangingfrom53rdto167th.

Ghanaholdsthetopspot,thankstoverygood

reliability,improvedreachandalevelof

resiliencemovingclosertotheglobalaverage.

Zambia,NamibiaandLiberiahavemadethe

largestrelativegains,movingupby34,31and

26places,respectively.

UNIVERSALPOSTALUNION,2021

Figure92IPDperformanceinAfricaFigure10Postaldevelopmentandeconomic

development

Disparitiesineconomicdevelopment

remainakey,butdefinitelynottheonly,

sourceofpostaldevelopmentgaps

Whenconsideringtheabove-mentionedgapsin

postaldevelopmentbetweenregions,onemay

wonderwhethertheystemprimarilyfrom

sector-specificfactorsorratherthattheyarethe

resultofawiderexternalcontext.

Historically,thecorrelationbetweeneconomic

andpostalperformancehastendedtobe

relativelyhigh.Figure10showsthatcountries

withahigherGDPpercapitaaremorelikelyto

achievehigher2IPDscores.However,thesame

graphshowsthattheoveralltrendisnotahard

rule,withnumerouscountrieseither

outperformingorunderperformingtheirlevelof

economicdevelopment.

Forinstance,asizeableportionofICshave

postalservicesthatstronglysurpasswhatwould

bepredictedbytheirlevelofeconomic

development.Conversely,postaldevelopmentin

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanislowerthan

whatonewouldexpectgiventhecorresponding

countries’GDPpercapita.

Furtheranalysisofspecificcaseswouldprovide

meansfordisentanglingthevariousfactors

behindtheindividualperformanceofparticular

countries.Nonetheless,thecomparisonbetween

postalandeconomicdevelopmentoutlined

abovedoessuggestthatpostaloperatorscan

improveperformanceeveninachallenging

economicenvironment,andviceversa.

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Figure112IPDranking

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UNIVERSALPOSTALUNION,2