风电行业 2021 及 2022Q1 财报总结 - 机遇与挑战并存关注盈利改善和海风放量的环节20220522-安信证券

2022年05月22日行业分析风电证券研究报告机遇与挑战并存，关注盈利改善和海风放2022年05月22日行业分析风电证券研究报告机遇与挑战并存，关注盈利改善和海风放资收益显著增加、产品结构改善、普遍重视产品设计技术实现技术降较快增长。望实现盈利修复：主要针对前期盈利能力受影响较大的环节(塔筒、位带相关报告产值通缩背景下，全产业链降本赛跑孕育结构性投资机会2022-04-21析大型化降本之路2021-10-10风起破竹势，扶摇九万里2021-09-22优质风机零部件厂商。压零部件盈利空间；零部件企业降本速度低于预期；样本统计数据与能存在偏差。领先大市-A维持评级评级 行业表现风电(中信)沪深30075%58%41%24%7%-27%%相对收益绝对收益倩倩投资评级首选股票60530500253100248730085060321830044360360600220260161530077221-092022-01M.67-16.5344.8924.31guoqq@fanyh@报告联系人gaoyy3@1各项声明请参见报告尾页。2各项声明请参见报告尾页。内容目录1.风电行业2021年报总结：陆风平价元年，机遇与挑战并存 3 1.1.1.整机厂：风电装机量增速放缓背景下，风电整机厂板块“多增利，少增收” 3于行业，利润端受制于整机厂降本压力及原材料涨价.4 或拉长零部件企业回款周期 72.风电行业2022Q1财报总结：整机厂盈利改善明显，零部件企业静待拐点 8 望：后续关注零部件盈利改善与海风产品出货放量 11 5.风险提示 12图表目录内风电新增吊装量55.92GW 3图2：2021年国内风电公开新增招标量54.1GW 3图3：抢装潮后，风电整机厂头部市场份额有所下滑 4图4：新强联2020年回转支承业务成本构成 6图5：新强联2020年锻件业务成本构成 6图6：天顺风能2021年塔筒业务成本构成 6图7：日月股份2021年风电铸件业务成本构成 68：2021年风电整机厂板块经营性净现金流129亿元 7电整机厂板块整体净现比达170.99% 7部件板块经营性现金流71亿元 8部件板块净现比达58.30% 8图12：风机月度公开投标均价(元/kw)在2021年底曾阶段性企稳 9表1：2021年风电整机厂板块整体体现出利润增速高于收入增速 3表2：2021年风机零部件板块收入及利润情况 4表3：2021年风电整机厂板块毛利率及净利率情况 5表4：2021年风机零部件板块毛利率及净利率情况 5表5：2021年风电整机厂板块期间费用率情况 7表6：2021年风电零部件板块期间费用率情况 7表7：2022Q1，风电整机厂板块利润增速显著 8表8：2022Q1，风电零部件板块之间盈利分化趋势扩大 8表9：2022Q1，风电整机厂板块毛利率、净利率情况 10表10：2022Q1，风机零部件板块毛利率、净利率情况 10表11：2022Q1，风电整机厂板块期间费用率情况 10Q块期间费用率情况 11 11.风电行业2021年报总结：陆风平价元年，机遇与挑战并存箱企业1家(杭齿前进)；塔筒塔架企业5家(大金重工、天顺风能、天能重工、泰胜风能、海力风电)；铸锻件企业10家(日月股份、金雷股份、通裕重工、吉鑫科技、恒润股份、振江股份、中环海陆、海锅股份、双一科技、宏德股份)；轴承企业1家(新强联)；海缆企业2家(东方电缆、中天科技)；配套设施2家(中际联合、容知日新)。1.1.1.整机厂：风电装机量增速放缓背景下，风电整机厂板块“多增利，少增收”GWyoy，仅次于2019年65.2GW。从样本公司财y增速大幅放缓，压制整机厂收入端弹性；②平价时代电站运营方降本诉求提升、风机大型化趋势提速、整机厂价格竞争激烈，使得风机投标价格缩水明显，根据金风科技数据，2021收入增速，主要得益于：①整机厂出售电站带来的投资收益明显增加；②整机厂产品结构改头部整机厂市占率之争趋于白热化。证券代码证券简称子板块市值(亿元)2020年收入 (亿元)2021年收入(亿元)yoy2020年利润 (亿元)2021年利润 (亿元)yoy002202.SZ金风科技473.89562.65505.7129.644.57601615.SH483.77224.57271.5820.93%1.01300772.SZ运达股份1.0139.75%4.90688660.SH206.85239.724.170721.68%合计6.18%49.27.5553.33%WEAWEA3各项声明请参见报告尾页。零部件环节业绩表现欠佳拖累板块整体表现。分环节来看：叶片、齿轮箱、轴承、配套设施表现均超过行业平均水平。铸锻件环节受原材料钢材涨价影响最为明显，且产业链议价能力证券代码2020年收入2021年收入证券简称子板块市值(亿元) (亿元)(亿元)yoy2020年利润2021年利润 (亿元)(亿元)yoy002080.SZ中材科技叶片358.28187.11202.958.47%20.5233.7364.40% 600458.SH时代新材叶片69.68150.80140.51-6.83%3.271.81-44.44%合计—叶片427.96337.91343.461.64%23.7935.5549.46%601177.SH杭齿前进齿轮箱30.7219.1821.4011.55%0.841.3763.32% 002487.SZ大金重工塔筒塔架142.0333.2544.3233.28%4.655.7724.17%002531.SZ天顺风能塔筒塔架196.4781.0081.720.89%10.5013.1024.76%300569.SZ天能重工塔筒塔架69.5934.2540.8119.16%4.283.95-7.53%300129.SZ泰胜风能塔筒塔架46.6036.0438.536.90%3.492.59-25.87% 301155.SZ海力风电塔筒塔架129.0439.2954.5838.93%6.1511.1380.80%合计—塔筒塔架583.73223.83259.9616.14%29.0636.5425.71%603218.SH日月股份铸锻件167.2051.1147.12-7.80%9.796.67-31.86%300443.SZ金雷股份铸锻件70.3314.7716.5111.80%5.224.96-4.95%300185.SZ通裕重工铸锻件98.5956.8857.491.07%3.812.85-25.36%601218.SH吉鑫科技铸锻件38.8020.4918.59-9.28%2.342.09-10.63%603985.SH恒润股份铸锻件76.1723.8522.93-3.82%4.634.42-4.59%603507.SH振江股份铸锻件29.4719.3124.2525.54%0.671.79166.15%301040.SZ中环海陆铸锻件24.0010.9710.69-2.59%1.340.72-45.94%301063.SZ海锅股份铸锻件21.4410.1410.594.48%1.050.88-16.94%300690.SZ双一科技铸锻件24.4013.9210.02-28.04%3.221.50-53.30% 301163.SZ宏德股份铸锻件44.646.727.5612.45%0.760.66-14.05%合计—铸锻件595.04228.15225.74-1.06%32.8526.55-19.20%300850.SZ新强联轴承255.6820.6424.7719.98%4.255.1421.09%603606.SH东方电缆海缆323.9850.5279.3257.00%8.8711.8933.98%4各项声明请参见报告尾页。 600522.SH中天科技海缆552.90420.82461.639.70%22.75-92.43%876.88471.34540.961.62-56.96%605305.SH中际联合配套环节3.97818329.64%2.3225.17% 688768.SH容知日新配套环节8.412.649750.54%74819.16%计—配套环节2.374535.47%2.601320.58%合计2,862.399.05%-2.50%。 及与核心零部件企业协同开发；③陆风平价元年，各家整机厂将前期储备的产品设计技术集 且板块内各家公司毛利率呈普遍下滑趋势，在23家样本公司中，仅有5家公司毛利率并未下滑，尤其以塔筒塔架及铸锻件板块受钢材、焦炭等大宗商品价格上行影响较大，毛利下滑趋势较为明显，其他零部件环节亦承担不同程度的降价压力，总体上呈现下游整机厂、上游pct业中仅6家公司净利率并未下滑。证券代码证券简称子版块2020毛利率2021毛利率2021毛利率同2020净利率2021净利率2021净利率同002202.SZ金风科技22.55%4.82pct5.27%6.90%3pct601615.SH21.43%2.86pct5.81%5.08pct300772.SZ运达股份3.00pct3.07%6pct688660.SH2.80pct2.01%2.12%整机厂板块整体20.27%3.54pct4.38%6.33%5pct证券代码证券简称子版块2020毛利率2021毛利率2021毛利率同2020净利率2021净利率2021净利率同002080.SZ中材科技叶片27.13%30.00%2.87pct10.52%17.12%6.60pct600458.SH时代新材叶片17.78%13.67%-4.10pct2.13%1.55%-0.58pct601177.SH杭齿前进齿轮箱24.78%24.06%-0.72pct6.13%8.49%2.35pct002487.SZ大金重工塔筒塔架25.45%23.01%-2.43pct13.98%13.03%-0.95pct002531.SZ天顺风能塔筒塔架23.49%21.57%-1.91pct13.72%15.96%2.23pct300569.SZ天能重工塔筒塔架28.72%23.25%-5.47pct13.56%9.74%-3.81pct300129.SZ泰胜风能塔筒塔架21.48%16.29%-5.18pct9.88%6.58%-3.29pct301155.SZ海力风电塔筒塔架24.48%29.13%4.65pct17.27%21.55%4.28pct 603218.SH日月股份铸锻件28.45%20.29%-8.15pct19.16%14.13%-5.02pct300443.SZ金雷股份铸锻件44.68%39.15%-5.52pct35.37%30.07%-5.30pct300185.SZ通裕重工铸锻件23.78%17.45%-6.32pct7.10%5.22%-1.88pct601218.SH吉鑫科技铸锻件25.61%21.95%-3.66pct11.44%11.20%-0.23pct5各项声明请参见报告尾页。原材料制造费用原材料制造费用603985.SH恒润股份铸锻件30.02%24.29%-5.73pct19.16%19.17%0.01pct603507.SH振江股份铸锻件19.60%22.55%2.94pct2.93%7.74%4.80pct301040.SZ中环海陆铸锻件20.48%13.85%-6.62pct12.20%6.77%-5.43pct301063.SZ海锅股份铸锻件20.23%15.39%-4.84pct10.40%8.27%-2.13pct300690.SZ双一科技铸锻件40.07%29.26%-10.81pct23.09%14.91%-8.17pct301163.SZ宏德股份铸锻件23.34%18.40%-4.94pct11.17%8.03%-3.14pct300850.SZ新强联轴承30.45%30.82%0.37pct20.57%20.79%0.22pct603606.SH东方电缆海缆30.55%25.34%-5.21pct17.56%14.99%-2.57pct600522.SH中天科技海缆13.90%16.01%2.11pct5.63%0.61%-5.02pct605305.SH中际联合配套环节58.38%47.67%-10.70pct27.18%26.25%-0.93pct 688768.SH容知日新配套环节68.88%61.27%-7.61pct28.21%20.46%-7.75pct零部件板块整体21.77%21.11%-0.66pct9.70%8.78%-0.91pct3.2%直接材料制造费用.直接材料制造费用直接人工运费3.2%直接材料制造费用运输费直接人工加工费部件板块期间费用率均维持在合理水平，波动不大。从样本公ct研发费用率均有所提升，我们判断主要系产业链积极应对风机大型化而加大研发投入，加速6各项声明请参见报告尾页。产业链2021年风电整机厂板块期间费用率情况“大型化-降本-放量-大型化”的良性循环。年份销售费用率管理费用率研发费用率财务费用率期间费用率期间费用率同比20187.61%5.30%5.25%2.97%21.13%20197.73%3.95%3.97%2.40%-3.08%20206.60%2.61%3.61%-4.15%202166.38%4.14%0.38%0.38%年份销售费用率管理费用率研发费用率财务费用率期间费用率期间费用率同比20183.60%3.31%3.87%20193.64%3.17%3.83%0.05%20202.83%3.84%9.91%202120211.51%2.84%4.00%1.33%9.68%-0.23%货占比提升或拉长零部件企业回款周期风电企业回款顺利，资金相对现比58.30%，同比降低51.06%，相对来看，整机厂经营质量较高。7各项声明请参见报告尾页。待拐点2.1.成长性：2022Q1整机厂收入、利润增速均超过零部件板块2022Q1延续2021年行业趋势，风电整机厂收入、利润增速超过零部件板块，零部件板块在价背景下，成本敏感型的塔筒塔架及铸锻件环节压力较大，叶片、轴承、海缆环节实现证券代码证券简称块市值(亿元)1Q1收入 (亿元)2Q1收入 (亿元)yoyQ利润 (亿元)Q利润 (亿元)yoy002202.SZ金风科技473.8968.222163.8326-6.43%7230.17%601615.SH483.7743.341571.261364.42%2.56450.34%300772.SZ运达股份1.0120.170134.134869.23%43688660.SH44.305245.38442.44%-2.19%合计214.6121.91%29.17证券代码证券简称子板块2021Q1收2022Q1收市值(亿元)入(亿元)入(亿元)市值(亿元)yoy2021Q1利2022Q1利润(亿元)润(亿元)yoy002080.SZ中材科技叶片358.2839.4146.6218.29%5.817.3426.46% 600458.SH时代新材叶片69.6837.8638.010.38%0.770.770.63%合计—叶片427.9677.2784.629.51%6.578.1123.45%601177.SH杭齿前进齿轮箱30.725.475.755.23%0.510.49-3.93%002487.SZ大金重工塔筒塔架142.036.029.3455.03%0.770.62-18.92%002531.SZ天顺风能塔筒塔架196.4713.947.28-47.76%4.970.33-93.46%300569.SZ天能重工塔筒塔架69.593.204.3535.92%0.640.26-58.82%8各项声明请参见报告尾页。300129.SZ泰胜风能塔筒塔架46.603.535.5758.03%0.760.62-18.15%301155.SZ海力风电塔筒塔架129.0410.971.53-86.03%2.090.62-70.27%合计—塔筒塔架583.7337.6628.07-25.46%9.232.46-73.39%603218.SH日月股份铸锻件167.2012.559.81-21.83%2.720.60-78.15%300443.SZ金雷股份铸锻件70.333.852.90-24.66%1.310.46-64.94%300185.SZ通裕重工铸锻件98.5914.7013.47-8.38%1.000.52-48.20%601218.SH吉鑫科技铸锻件38.803.463.35-2.97%0.260.25-3.37%603985.SH恒润股份铸锻件76.176.243.72-40.37%1.390.13-90.91%603507.SH振江股份铸锻件29.475.504.49-18.33%0.270.18-31.11%301040.SZ中环海陆铸锻件24.003.072.68-12.73%0.300.17-43.08%301063.SZ海锅股份铸锻件21.442.532.623.44%0.270.09-68.27%300690.SZ双一科技铸锻件24.402.511.63-35.25%0.540.11-79.85% 301163.SZ宏德股份铸锻件44.641.611.8314.04%0.160.16-0.30%合计—铸锻件595.0456.0246.50-16.99%8.232.66-67.66%300850.SZ新强联轴承255.685.626.4414.66%0.730.9833.97%603606.SH东方电缆海缆323.9814.4618.1625.60%2.782.780.16% 600522.SH中天科技海缆552.90106.9092.90-13.10%4.9210.16106.23%合计—海缆876.88121.36111.06-8.49%7.7012.9467.97%605305.SH中际联合配套环节53.971.551.7915.48%0.510.44-13.02% 688768.SH容知日新配套环节38.410.260.4050.24%-0.14-0.14-4.41%合计—配套环节92.371.812.1820.55%0.370.31-16.36%合计2,862.39305.20284.63-6.74%33.3527.95-16.19%图12：风机月度公开投标均价(元/kw)在2021年底曾阶段性企稳2.2.盈利能力：2022Q1风电整机厂表现稳健，零部件板块整体承压W整机厂间竞争也并非意味进行价格竞争，亦转向技术路线与销售策略之争。金风科技优先净利率水平接近，且净利率同比都有所提升。在23家风机零部件厂商样本公司中，仅有3以上，多数风机零部件厂商净利率也相应下滑，比较来看，国产替代属性较强的轴承企业新9各项声明请参见报告尾页。证券代码证券简称子版块2Q1毛利率2021Q1净利率2022Q1净利率2Q1净利率002202.SZ金风科技28.05%26.12%20.23%5.76pct601615.SH20.64%26.36%5.71pct5.66%.04pct300772.SZ运达股份3pct2.16%3.28%688660.SH3.05%2.90%-0.14pct整机厂板块整体22.81%23.19%0.37%8.03%0.37pct5.70pct证券代码证券简称子版块2021Q1毛利2022Q1毛利2022Q1毛利率2021Q1净利2022Q1净利2022Q1净利率率率同比率率同比002080.SZ中材科技叶片30.17%29.12%-1.05pct15.28%16.84%1.56pct 600458.SH时代新材叶片15.84%12.29%-3.54pct2.13%2.20%0.06pct 601177.SH杭齿前进齿轮箱27.33%21.64%-5.68pct10.79%10.14%-0.64pct002487.SZ大金重工塔筒塔架18.10%13.11%-4.99pct12.84%6.70%-6.13pct 002531.SZ天顺风能塔筒塔架31.88%22.47%-9.41pct36.25%4.37%-31.88pct300569.SZ天能重工塔筒塔架42.31%24.10%-18.20pct20.29%6.49%-13.79pct300129.SZ泰胜风能塔筒塔架21.51%14.62%-6.89pct21.90%10.95%-10.94pct 301155.SZ海力风电塔筒塔架28.95%1.82%-27.13pct20.66%43.68%23.01pct603218.SH日月股份铸锻件28.51%8.31%-20.20pct21.78%6.08%-15.70pct300443.SZ金雷股份铸锻件44.46%26.54%-17.92pct34.56%15.97%-18.58pct300185.SZ通裕重工铸锻件18.86%13.14%-5.71pct7.61%4.00%-3.61pct601218.SH吉鑫科技铸锻件26.13%17.66%-8.47pct7.58%7.58%0.00pct603985.SH恒润股份铸锻件33.75%11.12%-22.62pct22.55%3.41%-19.14pct603507.SH振江股份铸锻件19.59%17.45%-2.14pct4.62%4.78%0.16pct 301040.SZ中环海陆铸锻件18.02%12.88%-5.14pct9.76%6.37%-3.38pct301063.SZ海锅股份铸锻件17.11%11.56%-5.54pct10.66%3.26%-7.39pct300690.SZ双一科技铸锻件34.65%20.77%-13.87pct21.78%6.49%-15.29pct 301163.SZ宏德股份铸锻件17.06%19.21%2.14pct9.16%8.28%-0.88pct 300850.SZ新强联轴承27.07%34.02%6.95pct13.03%15.79%2.75pct 603606.SH东方电缆海缆29.78%27.08%-2.69pct19.24%15.34%-3.9pct 600522.SH中天科技海缆12.47%22.45%9.97pct4.92%11.48%6.56pct605305.SH中际联合配套环节57.22%