外文翻译CHINASNEWROLEINAFRICA课件

CHINA’SNEWROLEINAFRICAIanTaylorSchoolofInternationalRelations,UniversityofStAndrewsFromChina’sNewRoleinAfrica,publishedbyLynneRiennerPublishersthisyear

MaterialandideasbasedonfieldworkandinterviewsIconductedin:

Botswana,CapeVerde,Eritrea,Ethiopia TheGambia,Mauritius,Namibia Nigeria,Senegal,SierraLeone SouthAfrica,Uganda,Zambia,Zimbabwe

China(BeijingandHongKong)

LondonandWashington,DC.

CONTENTSOFBOOK1. CHINA’SAFRICAPOLICYINCONTEXT2. OILDIPLOMACY3. THEIMPACTOFCHEAPCHINESEGOODS4. THEISSUEOFHUMANRIGHTS5. ARMSSALES6. PEACEKEEPINGINAFRICA7. WHATDOESITALLMEAN?OildominatestheproAfrica’sexportstoChina(around70%)China’sdependenceonimportedoilroseto47%ofannualdemand,anincreaseof4.1percentsince2005-expectedtorisetoaround60%by2020FIVEKEYWAYSBEIJINGSEEKSTOLESSENPRESSUREIncreasedenergyconservation(thiswillonlymoderategrowthinconsumption)Fuelswitching—reducingthedependenceonimportedfuelsbyswitchingtorenewableenergyandcoal,ofwhichChinahaslargedomesticreserves(buttheenvironment…)Increaseindomesticoilproductionbyseekingoutnewresourcesandexploitingexistingonesmoreefficiently(therehavebeennewdiscoverieswithinChinabutnotenoughtosatisfydemand).Beijingencouragesnationaloilcompanies(NOCs)toincreasepurchasesininternationaloilmarketsBeijingfacilitatesacquisitionofoilreservesabroadthrough“sweetenerdeals”withforeigngovernmentsHowever,liberalizationhasresultedinashiftofpowerawayfromBeijingtowardNOCsTheabilitybyBeijingtotelltheNOCswhattodoislimitedPROBLEM:BeijinghasasyetbeenincapableofenforcingageographicaldivisionoflabouronthemainNOCsResult:competitionandoverlapbetween:ChinaNationalPetroleumCorporation(CNPC)ChinaPetroleum&ChemicalCorporation(Sinopec)ChinaNationalOffshoreOilCompany(CNOOC)ExampleCNPCandChinaPetroleumandChemicalCorporation(Sinopec)competedagainsteachotherforapipelineprojectinSudan.TheNOCsinfactviewoneanotherasrivals,competingnotonlyforoilandgasassets,butalsoforpoliticaladvantage.Themorehigh-qualityassetsacompanyacquires,themorelikelyitistoobtaindiplomaticandfinancialsupportfromBeijingforitssubsequentinvestments.especiallytrueforCNOOC,whichdoesnothaveasmuchpoliticalinfluenceasCNPCandSinopecProblem:theNOCshavethereputationtolettheChinesegovernmenttakethedangerousconsequencesengenderedbytheirforeign-oilandgasquestThuscommercialinterestsofChineseNOCscanriskdamagingChinesegovernment’sdiplomacyandinternationalreputationoverseasSameassomeWesternoilcompaniesbehaveButgovernmentcontrolovertheactionsofChineseNOCsinAfricanotbeaseasyasmanyseemtothinkintheWestIMPACTOFCHINESEIMPORTSOneofthemorecontentiousissuesinSino-Africanrelations

CheapmanufacturedgoodsblamedfordeclineinAfricanexports—particularlyofclothingandtextiles

AfricanimportsfromChina–712%jumpfrom$895min1996to$7.3bnin2005

ManyAfricanobserversseethisasthecauseofdeclineofAfrica’smanufacturingsector

“AfricaisbecomingadumpinggroundwhileAfricancompaniesaredying”-quotefromanAfricannewspaper“Quotahopping”variousforeigncompanies,mostlyAsian,setthemselvesupinAfricaasameanstoevadetheobstaclesplacedonthembytheMulti-FibreAgreementTheMFAallocatedexportquotastolow-costdevelopingcountriesandlimitedamountofimportsforstateswhosedomestictextileindustrieswerenegativelyaffectedtargetedatimportsfromAsiaandparticularlyChinaTriangularproductionnetworksthusdevelopedwherebyAsianfirmsmadeproductsinAfricaforexporttoWesternmarkets

Result:AfricanexportsoftextilesandclothingtoUSboomedIn2000,apparelexportstoUS=$776m;by2004=$1,782m-increaseof130%

HOWEVER,thiswasartificial-vastmajorityof“African”clothingbeingexportedtoUSwasmadeusingforeignfabrics:

Lesotho=98% Madagascar=92% Kenya=98% Mauritius=64% Swaziland=98% SouthAfrica=68% Namibia=96% Malawi=95% Botswana=99%SinceChinaisnowbeingheld“responsible”forpost-MFAcollapseofAfrica’sclothingindustry,weshouldnotethatasizeableproportionofthefabricinquestionwasactuallyChineseISAFRICACOMPETITIVE?VerydifficulttoassesswhetherAfricantextilescouldcompetewithChineseimportsbecausetheplayingfieldisnotlevel

Africanmanufacturershavetocontendwithchronicenergyandtransportissues

Example:Nigeriahasworld’s10thlargestreserveofgasbutgeneratesonly3,000mwofelectricity,eventhoughdomesticdemandis6,000mw

Costofdoingbusinesshighandproductsexpensive

WorldBank:ifZambianandKenyanpowersystemswereofsamequalityastheChinesethecostsavingsforZambianandKenyanfirmswouldbeequivalenttotheirentirewagebills

SouthAfricahasbeenlosingclothingjobssinceaccedingtotheWTO-theindustrywashighlyprotectedduringapartheidbutisbasicallyuncompetitivetodayThepopularimageAfrica’stextileexportingsuccessinmid-2000swasanartificialboomforanindustrythatlostitscompetitiveedgelongagoOnlyfactorsupportingthegrowthofmuchofAfrica’sexport-orientedclothingsector=preferentialaccesstooverseasmarketsWhentheseprivilegeswereabolished,Africa’ssuccessintheclothingandtextilesectorsevaporated

Poororganizationalprocedures,lowlevelsofskill,andinadequatemanagementGhanaianmanufacturersoftextileshavetofacetheimpositionofanillegal20%dutybyCôted’Ivoire,a“transittax”collectedatBeninandextortionbyNigerianauthoritiesPoorpackaging,poorfinishingofproducts(quality/conformitytostandards),inabilityofsomemanufacturerstomeetexportordersonschedulealsocomeintoplayPolicymakersinBeijingwillhavetoaddressnegativeimpressions

Bigchallenge=increasingSinophobicresentmentvs.ChinesetraderswhoseproductsdominatelocalAfricanmarketsKEYPOINTSTwomainpointsstandout:1.

DegreeofirrationalhostilitytoChinainAfrica.

2.ItisuptoAfricanleaderstomanagetheirrelationswithChinatobenefittheirowneconomiesandcitizensIRRATIONALHOSTILITYChinesetradewithAfricahasbecome,inmanyways,normalized,whichistosaydiverse,andinvolvingmultipleactors,ratherthanstatedirectedandcontrolledYetpeoplestilltalkof“China”inAfrica,asifallactionsbyChineseactorsrepresentsofficialChineseforeignpolicyMuchofAfrica’smanufacturingindustrycollapsedlongago,wellbeforeChineseimportsappearedonthesceneBesides,itisnotonlyAfricanproducerswhohavehadtoadjusttocompetition—between1995and2002,morethan15millionfactoryjobs,representing15%ofthetotalmanufacturingworkforce,werelostinChinaItispossiblethatsomeChineseexportsmayblockavenuesforAfrica’sdiversification

awayfromitstraditionalexportsIfAfricaistoescapeitsdependentrelationshipontheglobaleconomyandmoveonfrombeingsimplyanexporterofprimarycommodities,itneedstostartmanufacturingButdomesticproblemsfigur