第三天：突击效果分析

空军作战运筹AirForceOperationsResearch

第二章空中进攻作战运筹分析Chapter2:ORAnalysisfor

AirForceOffensiveOperationsII.Principles,basesandmainmethodsofselectingair-to-groundweapons二、空对地武器选择原则、依据和主要方法

Theoverallrequirementforair-to-groundweaponselectionis:underthepreconditionsthatexpectedstrikingeffectcanbeachieved,itisimperativetosaveasmuchforceaspossibleandtoensurethesafetyoftheplatformsthemselves.总要求：在获得预期突击效果的前提下，最大限度地节约兵力，并保证投掷武器载机的自身安全。Section3SelectionofAir-to-GroundWeapons第三节空对地武器选择

(I)Principlesofair-to-groundweaponselection

（一）空对地武器选择原则Choosingrighttypeofweapon

1．正确选择武器类型Section3SelectionofAir-to-GroundWeapons第三节空对地武器选择II.Principles,basesandmainmethodsofselectingair-to-groundweapons二、空对地武器选择原则、依据和主要方法

桥梁、舰船、铁路枢纽、……bridge,ship,railwayhubs,航爆弹aerialexplosivebombs一般技术兵器和人员,……ordinaryequipmentandpersonnel,航杀弹(或航空杀爆弹）aerialkilling(aerialkillingandexplosive)bombs地下目标undergroundtargets航空穿甲弹aerialarmored-piercingbombs坦克、装甲车tanks,anti-tankmissile反坦克子母弹aerialclusterbombs雷达、制导雷达radar,guided-radar反辐射弹anti-radiationweapons机场跑道airfieldrunway反跑道炸弹anti-runwaybombsSection3SelectionofAir-to-GroundWeapons第三节空对地武器选择

Selectappropriateequivalentweightofweapons2．合理选择武器当量Section3SelectionofAir-to-GroundWeapons第三节空对地武器选择II.

Principles,basesandmainmethodsofselecting

air-to-groundweapons二、空对地武器选择原则、依据和主要方法

(I)Principlesofair-to-groundweapons

（一）空对地武器选择原则

3.Accuratelysetthefuseofweapons3．精确设定武器的引信

应保证弹药在能获得最大破坏效果处（时）爆炸，并不危及载机的安全。

Itshouldbeguaranteedthatmunitionswouldbeexplodeattheplacewhere(oratthetimewhen)maximumdamagingeffectcouldbeachievedandthatthesafetyoftheplatformscanbeensured.Section3SelectionofAir-to-GroundWeapons第三节空对地武器选择II.

Principles,basesandmainmethodsofselecting

air-to-groundweapons

二、空对地武器选择原则、依据和主要方法Principlesofair-to-groundweapons

（一）空对地武器选择原则

(II)

Principlesofair-to-groundweapons

（二）空对地武器选用的依据

Section3SelectionofAir-to-GroundWeapons第三节空对地武器选择II.

Principles,basesandmainmethodsofselecting

air-to-groundweapons二、空对地武器选择原则、依据和主要方法

依据:bases

:1．Natureoftarget目标性质2．Missionrequirements任务要求3．Aircraft’sfavorablepayloadplan

飞机的有利载弹方案4．Altitudeofdeliveringbombs投弹高度5．Penetrationcapabilityandprobabilityoftargetdetection突防能力及发现目标概率

Section3SelectionofAir-to-GroundWeapons第三节空对地武器选择

(III)Methodsofair-to-GroundWeaponSelection（三）空对地武器选用的方法

Quantitativelyanalyzeandevaluatevariousoptions对各类方案进行量化、评估Arrangetheorderofvariousoptions对各类方案排序Choosetheoptimumoption选择最佳的方案Section3SelectionofAir-to-GroundWeapons第三节空对地武器选择II.

Principles,basesandmainmethodsofselecting

air-to-groundweapons

二、空对地武器选择原则、依据和主要方法

Cost-effectiveness

费效比

Selectweaponsaccordingthecomparisonofdifferentratiosofcost-effectiveness.Thecostofcombatweaponssystemsusuallyincludesexpensesofproductionandmaintenanceoftheweaponsandtheexpensesofproduction,maintenanceanddepreciationofthelostaircraft,aswellastheexpensesofthetrainingofcombatpersonnel.从效能和费用两个方面来进行考虑，选取单位费用获取效果最大的武器。作战武器的费用通常包括武器的成本费、维修费、损失飞机的成本费、出动飞机的折旧费、维修费、油料费，以及战勤人员的培训费等。Section3SelectionofAir-to-GroundWeapons第三节空对地武器选择CommonQuantitativeCriteria:常用的量化指标:

section1Introduction

第一节概述

Section2SelectionofTargetstoBeAttacked

第二节突击目标选择

Section3SelectionofAir-to-GroundWeapons

第三节空对地武器选择

Section4StrikingEffectAnalysis

第四节突击效果分析

Section5AnalysisofStrikingForce

第五节突击兵力分析

ORAnalysisfor

AirForceOffensiveOperations空中进攻作战运筹分析

Theassessementofthestrikingplanandquantitativeanalysisonthedegreeofmissioncompletionisknownasstrikingeffectanalysis.

把分析突击方案好坏（质量）及其完成任务程度的定量分析方法称为突击效果分析。

Section4

StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析

penetration突防destructionarea毁伤目标ingressthetarget进入目标Section4

StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析I.

PenetrationEffectAnalysis一、突防效果分析

Penetrationisacombatactionduringwhichtheaviationforcesbreakthroughenemyairdefensesystemandentertheselectedtargetarea.

突防，是航空兵突破敌方对空防御系统的拦截，进入预定的攻击目标区的战斗活动。

Section4

StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析Penetrationeffectmainlymeanstheextentoftheeffectivenessofpenetration.突防效果是指突破敌防空体系的有效程度。Penetrationeffectanalysisisaquantitativeforecastforthisextentofeffectiveness.突防效果分析，即在一定条件下，对这一有效程度进行的定量预测。

Section4StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析

Penetrationeffectanalysis一、突防效果分析(I)PenetrationEffectIndex（一）突防效果指标Penetrationeffectindexisaquantitativeeffectivenessindexfortheevaluationofpenetrationeffectiveness.突防效果指标，是评定突防效果好坏的数量指标。Section4StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析

1.FormationPenetrationEffectivenessIndex

编队突防效果指标Averagenumberofaircraftsucceedinginpenetrating突防平均架数Averagepercentageofaircraftsucceedinginpenetrating突防平均百分数Probabilityofwholeformationsucceedinginpenetration编队全部突防成功的概率Probabilityofrequirednumberofaircraftsucceedinginpenetrating编队飞机至少若干架突防成功的概率Section4

StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析

2.Singleaircraftpenetrationeffectivenessindex

单机突防效果指标Singleaircraftpenetrationprobability单机突防概率Section4

StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析

penetration突防destructionarea毁伤目标ingressthetarget进入目标Section4

StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析

二、Analysisoneffectforingressingthetarget进入目标效果分析

Ingressthetargetisdescribedasaprocessduringwhichastrikeformation,afteringressingthebombline,searchanddetectaccordingtothepreplanedprosedureandenoughaimingandreleasingtimeisensured.

通常把突击编队进入轰炸起点（或发射区）后，按预设程序搜索发现目标，并保证来得及瞄准攻击的这一过程称为进入目标。

EffectIndex:Probalityofingressingthetarget效果指标：进入目标概率Section4

StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析

进入目标概率主要取决于飞机与目标之间的通视率和通视条件下使用各种观察手段对目标的发现概率。即：

P进入=P通视×P发现

Probabilityofingressingthetargetmainlydependsonthevisibilitybetweena/candthetarget,andthedetectionprobabilityofthetargetbyallkindsofobservationmeansinthevisibilitycondition:P

ingress

=Pvisibility

×PdetectionSection4

StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析

III.EffectIndexoftheTargetDestruction

三、毁伤目标效果分析

Thestrikeformationcouldreleaseordroptheair-to-groundweaponstodestroythetargetaftersuccessfulpenetrationandingression.Theextentoftargetdestructioncandirectlyreflectthestrikingeffect.

EffectIndexoftheTargetDestruction

isaforcastfortheextentofdestroyingthetargetbyair-to-groundweapons.

突击编队成功突防和进入目标后，即可投射空对地武器来毁伤目标。对目标的毁伤程度直接反映出突击效果的好坏。毁伤目标效果分析就是对空对地武器毁伤目标程度的预测。

Section4

StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析

（一）EffectivenessIndexofTargetDestruction

毁伤目标效果指标1.EffectivenessIndexforSingleTargetStrike

对单个目标

单个目标是指那些具有独立职能且面积较小的目标。Asingletargetisasmalltargetthatcanperformitsfunctionsindependently.Destructionprobabilityisusuallyusedaseffectivenessindex.毁伤目标概率Section4StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析

（一）EffectivenessIndexoftheTargetDestruction

毁伤目标效果指标2.EffectivenessIndexfor

AreaTargetStrike

对面状目标

Anareatargetmeansasetoftargetsthatarelocatedinacertainamountofarea.Itiscomposedofanumberoftargetsofthesameordifferentkinds(forexample,personnel,weaponsandequipment,andfortifications).面状目标是指分布在一定面积内的一组目标，这种目标是由若干相同或不相同的目标（如人员、武器装备、工事建筑等）组成。

Section4StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析

theaveragepercentageoftargetdestruction毁伤目标的平均百分数Section4

StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析

EffectivenessIndexofTargetDestruction

（一）毁伤目标效果指标3.EffectivenessIndexoftheStrikeofAirfieldRunway对机场跑道Probabilityofaccomplishingtheblockademission完成封锁任务的概率

Section4

StrikingEffectAnalysis第四节突击效果分析