第二章宏观经济计量与核算measuringnationalincome(宏观经济学-华东理工,石良平)

二、宏观经济计量与核算

MEASURINGANATION’SINCOME

●国民收入帐户●投入产出表●资金循环表●国际收支表●国民资产负债表国民帐户体系ASYSTEMOFNATIONALACCOUNTSRichardStone(理查德·斯通)1984年获诺贝尔经济学奖。二战期间，完成《战争财源分析及1938和1940国民收入和支出估计》白皮书。时任英国财政部顾问的凯恩斯感动地说：“我们在一个通过统计的快乐时代中”。1945年任剑桥大学新成立的应用经济学系的第一任主任。1950年，受联合国统计委员会委托，出版《国民帐户体系》（SNA），1968年修订后正式出版。1975年出版《社会和人口统计系统》（SSDS,Towardsasystemofsocialanddemographicstatistics）。WassilyLeontief(沃西里·里昂惕夫)1973年获诺贝尔经济学奖。1906年出生在圣彼得堡，1929年任中国铁道部顾问，1931年进入美国国民经济研究局（NBER），1946年哈佛大学经济学教授。1941年出版《美国经济结构：1919-1929》，第一次用投入产出法进行经济结构分析。1966年出版《投入产出经济学》。Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)isameasureoftheincome(收入)andexpenditures(支出)ofaneconomy.Itisthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservices(最终产品和劳务)producedwithinacountryinagiventimeperiod.GrossDomesticProduct

国内生产总值ImportantFeaturesofGDP

GDP的重要特征Outputisvaluedatmarketprices.Itrecordsonlythevalueoffinalgoods,notintermediategoods(thevalueiscountedonlyonce).Itincludesbothtangiblegoods有形商品(food,clothing,cars)andintangibleservices无形服务(haircuts,housecleaning,doctorvisits).ImportantFeaturesofGDPItincludesgoodsandservicescurrentlyproduced,nottransactions交易involvinggoodsproducedinthepast.Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionwithinthegeographicconfinesofacountry.

ImportantFeaturesofGDPItmeasuresthevalueofproductionthattakesplacewithinaspecificintervaloftime,usuallyayearoraquarter(threemonths).WhatIsCountedinGDP?

哪些经济活动应计入GDPGDPincludesallitemsproducedintheeconomyandsoldlegally合法的

inmarkets.WhatIsNotCountedinGDP?

哪些经济活动不能计入GDPGDPexcludesmostitemsthatareproducedandconsumedathomeandthatneverenterthemarketplace.Itexcludesitemsproducedandsoldillicitly非法的,suchasillegaldrugs.GrossNationalProduct

国民生产总值Grossnationalproduct(GNP)isthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinagivenperiodoftimebyanation’spermanentresidents常住居民,regardlessofwheretheyare.ThreeOtherMeasuresofIncome

另外三个收入变量NetNationalProduct(NNP)国民生产净值PersonalIncome个人收入DisposablePersonalIncome个人可支配收入NetNationalProduct(NNP)

国民生产净值Thetotalincomeoftheresidentsofanationaftersubtractinglossesfromdepreciation折旧.PersonalIncome

个人收入Theincomethathouseholdsandnoncorporatebusinessesreceive.DisposablePersonalIncome

个人可支配收入Theincomethathouseholdandnoncorporatebusinesseshaveleftaftersatisfyingtheirobligationstothegovernment.GrossNationalProductFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStatesGNP—NationalandPerCapitaIncomeFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStatesNationalIncomeFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStatesTheFourComponentsofGDP

构成GDP的四个要素GDP(Y)isthesumofthefollowing:

äConsumption(C)

äInvestment(I)

äGovernmentPurchases(G)

äNetExports(NX)Y=C+I+G+NXTheFourComponentsofGDP

Consumption(C)（消费）:

äThespendingbyhouseholdsongoods andservices,withtheexceptionof purchasesofnewhousing.Investment(I)（投资）:

äThespendingoncapitalequipment, inventories,andstructures,including newhousing.TheFourComponentsofGDPGovernmentPurchases(G)（政府购买）:

äThespendingongoodsandservicesby local,state,andfederalgovernments.

äDoesnotincludetransferpayments becausetheyarenotmadeinexchangefor currentlyproducedgoodsorservices.NetExports

(NX)（净出口）:

äExportsminusimports.BreakdownofU.S.GDP:1996BreakdownofU.S.GDP:1996Consumption69%Investment15%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:1996Consumption68%Consumption68%GovernmentPurchases19%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:1996Investment15%NetExports-1%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:1996Consumption68%Investment15%GovernmentPurchases19%RealversusNominalGDP

实际GDP与名义GDPNominalGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatcurrentprices现行价格.RealGDP

valuestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatconstantprices固定价格.

RealversusNominalGDPAnaccurateviewoftheeconomyrequiresadjustingnominaltorealGDPbyusingtheGDPdeflator缩减指数.价格指数(PriceIndex)拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyres)指数：帕斯卡(Pascke)指数：GDPDeflator

GDP缩减指数TheGDP

deflator

measuresthecurrentlevelofpricesrelativetothelevelofpricesinthebaseyear基年.IttellsustheriseinnominalGDPthatisattributabletoariseinpricesratherthanariseinthequantitiesproduced.GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDPNominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows:ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDPNominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows:ConsumerPriceIndex

消费者价格指数Theconsumerpriceindex

(CPI)isameasureoftheoverallcostofthegoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalconsumer.Itisusedtomonitorchangesinthecostofliving生活费用overtime.Itreportsthemovementofpricesusinganindexnumber.

ConsumerPriceIndexWhentheCPIrises,thetypicalfamilyhastospendmoredollarstomaintainthesamestandardofliving.TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflator

消费者价格指数与GDP缩减指数EconomistsandpolicymakersuseboththeGDPdeflatorandtheconsumerpriceindextogaugehowquicklypricesarerising.Thereareimportantdifferencesbetweenthetwo.TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflatorTheCPI... ...includesonlyconsumergoods. ...includesimports. ...ismeasuredusingafixedbasketofgoodsandservices固定的一篮子商品和劳务.TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflatorTheGDPPriceDeflator... ...includesallgoodsandservicesproduceddomestically. ...excludesimports. ...ismeasuredusingcurrentlyproducedgoodsandservices.GDPandEconomicWell-Being

G