国际市场营销课件-国际贸易的动态环境

TheDynamicEnvironmentofInternationalTrade国际贸易的动态环境Topic#5Chapter#2TheTwentiethtotheTwenty–FirstCentury20世纪到21世纪ThefirsthalfofTheTwentiethCenturywasmarredbytwomajorglobalconflicts,andTheGreatDepression.20世纪的前半叶两次世界大战和经济大萧条损毁

WorldWar1–1914to1918第一次世界大战1914-1918TheGreatDepression–1929to1939大萧条时期1929-1939WorldWar2–1939to1945第二次世界大战1939-1945TheMarshallPlan马歇尔计划TheMarshallplan;WasaplanaimedattherebuildingofEuropeandJapanaftertheirdestructionduringtheSecondWorldWar.马歇尔计划:计划的目的是重建在二战中摧毁的欧洲和日本AgencyofInternationalDevelopment;wasanorganizationcreatedafterWW2wheremembercountriescouldinvestfundstohelpfostereconomicdevelopmentinunderdevelopedcountriesinordertocreateastrongerworldeconomy.国际开发总署:二战后成立的组织,为了更强大的全球经济,成员国可以在不发达国家投资促进经济发展Thebenefitsflowedbothways,sinceforeverydollardevelopedcountriesinvestedinunderdevelopedcountries,theyreceivedhundredsofdollarsinreturnoninvestedcapitalintheformofmanufacturedgoods,agriculturalgoods,etc.SincetheNorthAmericaneconomiesandinfrastructureshadnotbeenravagedbythewar,theywerethemainbenefactorsofthepostwareconomicresurgence.TheUnitedStatesandCanadabecamerichcountries!!!利益有两方面,发达国家的每一美元投资都投入到不发达国家,以工业品,农产品为形式作为投入资本的回报.因为北美国家的经济和基础设施没在战争中破坏,他们是战后经济复苏的主要资助者,美国和加拿大聚敛财富GATT关税和贸易总协定GATT(GeneralAgreementofTariffsandTrade);In1947GATTwasratifiedby23membernations.Theirgoalwastolimittradebarriersandincreaseglobaltradeamongnations.关税和贸易总协定:1947年23个国家批准了GATT,他们的目标是降低贸易壁垒和增加全球贸易Duringtheworldwarstradeamongstwarringnationshadallbutstopped,andintheperiodbetweenthewarstherewasanatmosphereofprotectionism.Thisleadtotariffsashighas60%onmanyproductstolimittrade,andisoneofthecausesofTheGreatDepression!Afterthewarsworldleaderssoughtcooperationandtrade!!!战争期间,交战国的贸易停止了,贸易保护主义盛行,许多产品的关税高达60%,这限制了贸易,这也是导致经济大萧条的原因之一,战后世界的领导者寻求合作和贸易TradeInvestmentMeasures(TRIMS);Establishedthebasicprinciplethatinvestmentrestrictionscanbemajortradebarriers.贸易投资措施:建立的投资限制的基本原则可能会成为主要的贸易壁垒TheWorldTradeOrganization

世界贸易组织TheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO);Wascreatedin1994asaninstitutiontodealwith,andeliminatetradedisputesamongstthe132membercountries.世贸:1994成立的机构旨在处理和消除132个成员国之间的贸易争端TheUruguayRound;GATTbecamepartofWTOandthenumberofnationsseekingglobalbarrierfreetradeincreasedto117nations.乌拉圭会谈:关税和贸易总协定成为世贸的一部分,更多的国家寻求全球的自由贸易,成员国增至117个SkirtingtheSpiritofGATTandWTO回避关贸协定和世贸精神TheWTOhasbeentryingtosethealthandsafetystandardsandworkplacerightsacrossallmembernations.Theyalsotrytoenforcepatentandtrademarkprotection,howevermanydevelopingnationsareslowtocomply.世贸努力在成员国中建立安全的标准,他们也实施专利和商标保护,然而许多发展中国家推行的很慢Thereisalsodifferentlevelsofinstitutionalisedcorruptionandinfluencewithindifferentmembernationsthatcreateproblemsforbusinessesandcountriesinvolvedintrade.不同成员国的不同程度的制度化的腐败和影响使商业和国家的贸易产生了问题TheInternationalMonetaryFund国际货币基金组织TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF);WasformedafterWW2tostabiliseforeignexchangeratesandtheestablishmentoffreelyconvertiblecurrenciestofacilitatetheexpansionandbalancedgrowthofinternationaltrade.(181membercountries)国际货币基金组织:二战后成立,致力于稳定货币汇率和建立自由兑换货币促进扩张,平衡国际贸易的增长（181个成员国）TheWorldBank世界银行TheWorldBank;Isaninstitutionthathasasit`sgoalthereductionofpovertyandtheimprovementoflivingstandardsbypromotingsustainablegrowthandinvestmentinpeople.世界银行:这一机构的目标在于减少贫困,提高生活质量,促进可持续增长和投资TherearefiveinstitutionswithinTheWorldBankprovidingserviceforpooranddevelopingcountries.世界银行中有五个体系为贫穷和发展中国家提供服务ServicesProvidedbyTheWorldBank世界银行提供的服务1.Lendingmoneytotheeconomiesofdevelopingcountriestofinancedevelopmentprojectsineducation,health,andinfrastructure.为发展中国家提供贷款支持教育,医疗,基础设施的建设2.Providingassistancetogovernmentsfordevelopmentalprojectstothepoorestdevelopingcountries,(percapitaincomeof$925).为最贫穷国家的政府的发展项目提供援助(平均每人每年925美元)3.lendingdirectlytotheprivatesectortohelpstrengthenprivatebusinesssectorindevelopingeconomies.在发展中国家直接对私营部门投资增强私营企业4.Providinginvestorswithinvestmentguaranteesagainstnoncommercialriskfactors.为投资者提供投资保证防止商业风险5.increaseinvestmentflowbyprovidingconciliationandarbitrationservicestosortdisputesbetweengovernmentsandinvestors.通过提供调解和仲裁政府与投资者之间的争端的服务来增加投资ProtestsAgainstGlobalInstitutions反对全球化体系Anti-Globalists;Theyrebelagainsttheimplicationsofitsexistenceandvehementlychallengetheviewthatitisinevitableandnaturallyoccurring.反对全球化者:他们对抗存在的影响，激烈的挑战不可避免的和必然发生的观点Everytimeworldleadersgettogethertodiscusstheworldeconomyandinternationaltradethereareprotests.Somecanbecomeveryviolent!!!每次世界领导者聚在一起讨论世界经济和国际贸易都会有反对者,有的会变得很激烈InternationalTradeTheories国际贸易理论AdamSmithandAbsoluteAdvantage亚当·斯密和绝对优势DavidRicardoandComparativeAdvantage大卫·李嘉图和相对优势Heckscher–OhlinandFactorEndowments赫克舍·奥林和具备的生产要素CountrySimilarityTheory国家相似理论ProductLifeCycleTheory产品周期理论AdamSmithandAbsoluteAdvantage亚当·斯密和绝对优势Absoluteadvantage;Theadvantagethatexistswhenacountryhasamonopolyonproducingaspecificproductorisabletoproduceitmoreefficientlythanallothercountries.

绝对优势:一个国家在特定商品上垄断或比其他国家生产效率更高的优势DavidRicardoandComparativeAdvantage大卫·李嘉图和相对优势ComparativeAdvantage;Thetheorythatstatesthatacountryshouldselltoothercountriesthoseproductsitproducesmosteffectivelyandefficiently,andbuyfromothercountriesthoseproductsitcannotproduceaseffectivelyorefficiently.

相对优势:这个理论表明一个国家应向其他国家销售其能高效生产的商品,购买其不能高效生产的商品Heckscher–OhlinandFactorEndowments赫克舍·奥林和具备的生产要素FollowalongthelineofComparativeAdvantage,HeckscherandOhlinsuggestthatsomecountrieshavenaturaladvantages,knownasfactors.依照相对优势理论,赫克舍·奥林提出国家应该有自然优势如各种要素Thus;AcountrywillhaveaComparativeAdvantageinproductsthatrequireresourcesthatareabundantinthatcountry.因此,一个国家要在充足的自然资源生产的产品上有相对优势CountrySimilarityTheory国家相似理论Economist,SteffenLinder,in1960,suggestedthattradebetweencountriesformanufacturedgoodsdependedonthesimilaritiesinconsumerpreferences,productionconditions,andeconomicdevelopmentstage.Economicandsocialsimilarityincreasesleveloftradebetweencountries.经济学家史蒂芬琳达1960年提出国家间商品的交换依靠相似的消费者选择,生产环境,经济发展阶段,经济和社会的相似能提升国家间贸易的阶段ProductLifeCycleTheory产品周期理论RaymondVernon,IsverysimilartoTheProductLifeCycleTheory,butincludesthefactorsofglobalcompetitionandtrade.HesaysthatwithinthePLCtherearethreestagesofinternationalproductgrowth.Theyare;雷蒙德·弗农提出与产品周期理论相似的理论,但包括全球竞争和贸易的因素,他说在产品周期理论内国际产品增长有三个阶段1.NewProductStage;Entrepreneurslaunchanewproductintheirhomemarket,wheretheyunderstandtheenvironment.新产品阶段:企业家在国内市场推行新产品,他们了解市场环境2.MatureProductStage;Demandfortheproductexpandsfasterthensupplyascustomersaltertheirchoicesandadoptnewstyling.Asdemandmovesoffshoresodoesproduction!成熟产品阶段:对产品的需求迅速增长,然后供给满足消费者的不同选择和采用新款式,产品的需求和生产到达国外3.StandardizedProductStage;Demandfortheproductstabilizes.Theinnovativefeaturesoftheproductnolongerexist.Productionmovestothelowestcostlocationsasdemanddrops.标准化产品阶段:产品的需求稳定,产品创新的特点不再存在,随着需求下降,生产转移到低成本地区NewProductStageStandardizedProductStageMatureProductStageDomesticMarketInternationalMarketTradeandInvestmentPatterns

贸易和投资模式Thelevelofglobaltradeisincreasingandhasbeenforanumberofyears.Ascountriescontinuetoworktogetheronglobalissuessuchaspopulation,resourcelimitations,globalwarming,andpoverty,cooperationandtradeareevermoreimportant.Tradecreateshealthyeconomiesforallthoseinvolved,andaspoorcountriesdevelop,anddevelopingcountriesbecomerich,theglobalmarketplacewillcontinuetogrow.全球贸易的增长已持续了很多年,随着全球的国家一起解决人口增长,资源限制,全球变暖和贫困的问题,合作和贸易更加重要,贸易使参与者产生健康的经济,随着贫穷的国家发展,发展中国家变得富有,全球市场会继续发展BRIC;DevelopingCountriesToWatch!!!金砖四国:受注视的发展中国家Brazil;200million巴西2亿人口Russia;200million俄罗斯2亿人口India;1.2billionpeople印度12亿人口China;1.3billionpeople中国13亿人口DevelopingCountriesToWatch!!!受注视的发展中国家BalanceofPayments收支平衡BalanceofPayments;Thesystemofaccountsthatrecordsanation’sinternationalfinancialtransactions.收支平衡:记录一个国家的国际金融处理的账目系统CurrentAccount;Arecordofallmerchandiseexports,imports,andservicesplusunilateraltransfersoffunds.现在的账目:对所有商品的进出口,服务和单边资金转移的记录CapitalAccount;Arecordofdirectinvestment,portfolioinvestment,andshorttermcapitalmovementstoandfromcountries.资本账目:对直接投资,证券投资组合和国家短期投资的进出的记录ReserveAccount;Arecordofimportsandexportsofgold,increasesordecreasesinforeignexchange,andincreasesordecreasesinliabilitiestoforeigncentralbanks.储备金账目:对黄金的进出口,外汇的增减,外国中央银行负债的增减的记录TradeBalance;Isareflectionofthedifferencebetweentotalexportsandtotalimports.贸易平衡:是总出口和总进口差异的反映CurrentAccountBalance;Isamorecompletepictureofthefinancialflowsintoandfromalocaleconomy.现在账目平衡:是一个更完整的一个区域经济财政的流量的进出的反映TradeSurplus;Afavourablebalanceoftrade;occurswhenthevalueofacountry’sexportsexceedsthatofitsimports.贸易顺差:有利的贸易平衡,一国出口的贸易额超过进口TradeDeficit;Anunfavourablebalanceoftrade;occurswhenthevalueofacountry’simportsexceedsthatofitsexports.贸易逆差:不利的贸易平衡,一国进口的贸易额超过出口BalanceofPaymentsandForeignExchange收支平衡和外汇ExchangeRate;Referstothevalueofacurrencyinrelationtothevaluesofothercurrencies.汇率:本国货币价值与其他货币价值的关系PurchasingPowerParity(PPP);Thevalueofacountriescurrencyandthecostoflivinginthatcountry,comparedtothevalueofanothercurrencyinanothercountryandthecostoflivinginthatcountry.购买力同等:一国货币的价值与生活成本与另一国相比较FactorsAffectingTheExchangeRate影响汇率的因素FloatingExchangeRate;Thevalueofcurrencyissetbythelawsofsupplyanddemandforcurrencyontheinternationalexchangemarkets.变动的汇率在国际交换市场上货币的价值由对货币的需求决定Currencyvalueschangedailyandareeffectedbymanyfactorssuchasperceivedeconomichealthoracountry’seconomyincomparisontothatofothercountries,andinternationalevents.货币价值每日一变,受经济安全感知或本国经济与它国比较和国际事件因素的影响Protectionism贸易保护主义Protectionism;Theuseofgovernmentregulationstolimittheimportofgoodsandservices.贸易保护主义政府条例的使用限制商品和服务的进口

TradeBarriers;Arebarriersputinplacebygovernmentstorestrictorpreventinternationaltrade.贸易壁垒:政府设置壁垒限制或阻止国际贸易TradeBarriers贸易壁垒Tariff;Ataximposedonimports.关税强加到进口上的税Quota;Isaspecificunitordollarlimitappliedtoaparticulartypeofgood.限额:对特定商品限制交易量和交易额VoluntaryExportRestrictions;(VER)orOrderlyMarketAgreements;(OMA);areagreementsbetweenimportingandexportingcountriesforarestrictiononthevolumeofexports.自愿出口限制或有序市场协议:是进口和出口国对大量出口限制的协议Boycott;Isanabsoluterestrictionagainstthepurchaseandimportationofcertaingoodsfromothercountries.联合抵制:是对从其它国家进口特定商品的绝对的限制Embargo;Isarefusaltoselltoaspecificcountry.禁止或限制贸易:拒绝和特定国家贸易MonetaryBarrier;Restrictionsonmoneyexchange.货币壁垒:对货币兑换的限制Standard;Standardsonproductsafetyandqualityandbusinessrules.标准:产品安全和质量的标准和商业准则AntidumpingPenalties;Limitsonimportsbasedonpredatorypricing,topreventdumping.反倾销处罚:对掠夺性定价商品的限制,目的是防止倾销ProtectionLogicandIllogic

保护主义的逻辑性和非逻辑性Therearecountlessreasonswhygovernmentstrytorestricttradebytheuseofprotectionistmeasures.Someoftheseargumentsarebasedonthefollowing;有无数的原因来说明为什么政府要使用贸易保护主义者的方法来限制贸易以下的,内容是一部分论证:

1.Protectionofaninfantindustry.对早期工业的保护

2.Protectionofthehomemarket.对国内市场的保护

3.Theneedtokeepmoneyatho