化学反应热的计算15042教学提纲

化学反应热的计算15042复试金融专业英语(传世版)复试金融专业英语(传世版)

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复试金融专业英语(传世版)专业英语汇总1.Howtodefinetheaggregatepricelevel?如何衡量价格指数？Threemeasuresoftheaggregatepricelevelarecommonlyencounteredineconomicdata.(1)ThefirstistheGDPdeflator(GDP平减指数),whichisdefinedasnominalGDPdividedbyrealGDP.(2)AnotherpopularmeasureoftheaggregatepricelevelistheProducerPriceIndex(生产者价格指数)whichisameasureofthecostofabasketofgoodsandservicesboughtbyfirms.(3)ThemeasureoftheaggregatepricelevelthatismostfrequentlyreportedinthepressistheConsumerPriceIndex(消费者价格指数),whichismeasuredbypricingabasketofgoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalurbanhousehold.2.What’sthedisadvantageandadvantageofholdingequityratherthandebt?持有股权的优劣？(1)Themaindisadvantageofowningacorporation’sequitiesratherthanitsdebtisthatanequityholderisaresidualclaimant(剩余求偿权),thatis,thecorporationmustpayallitsdebtholdersbeforeitpaysitsequityholders.(2)Themainadvantageofholdingequitiesisthatequityholdersbenefitdirectlyfromanyincreasesinthecorporation’sprofitabilityorassetvaluebecauseequitiesconferownershiprightsontheequityholders.Debtholdersdonotshareinthisbenefit,becausetheirpaymentsarefixed.3.What’sthedifferencebetweenprimaryandsecondarymarket?一级市场与二级市场的区别？(1)Aprimarymarketisafinancialmarketinwhichnewissuesofasecurity,suchasabondorastock,aresoldtoinitialbuyersbythecorporationorgovernmentagencyborrowingthefunds.(2)Asecondarymarketisafinancialmarketinwhichsecuritiesthathavebeenpreviouslyissuedcanberesold.4.What’sthedifferencebetweenforeignbondandEurobond?外国债券和欧洲债券的区别？(1)Foreignbondsaresoldinaforeigncountryandaredenominatedinthatcountry’scurrency.Forexample,abondissuedbyaChinesecompanydenominatedinU.S.dollarssoldinNewYork.(2)Eurobondisabonddenominatedinacurrencyotherthanthatofthecountryinwhichitissold.Forexample,abonddenominatedinU.S.dollarssoldinChina.5.What’sassettransformationanddiversification？资产转换和分散化(1)Financialintermediariescreateandsellassetswithriskcharacteristicsthatpeoplearecomfortablewith,andtheintermediariesthenusethefundstheyacquirebysellingtheseassetstopurchaseotherassetsthatmayhavefarmorerisk.Thisprocessofrisksharingisreferredasassettransformation,becauseinasense,riskyassetsareturnedintosaferassetsforinvestors.(2)Diversificationentailsinvestinginaportfolioofassetswhosereturnsdonotalwaysmovetogetherwiththeresultthatoverallriskislowerthanforindividualassets.Italsorefersto“Youshouldn'tputallyoureggsinonebasket”.Diversificationcaneliminatefirm-specificrisk—theuncertaintyassociatedwiththespecificcompanies.Butdiversificationcannoteliminatemarketrisk—theuncertaintyassociatedwiththeentireeconomy,whichaffectsallcompaniestradedonthestockmarket.Forexample,whentheeconomygoesintoarecession,mostcompaniesexperiencefallingsales,profitandlowstockreturns.Diversificationreducestheriskofholdingstocks,butitdoesnoteliminateit.6.Explainthefollowingconcepts:asymmetricinformation,adverseselectionandmoralhazard.(1)Asymmetricinformation(信息不对称)referstothatonepartyoftendoesnotknowenoughabouttheotherpartytomakeaccuratedecisions.Forexample,aborrowerwhotakesoutaloanusuallyhasbetterinformationaboutthepotentialreturnsandriskassociatedwiththeinvestmentprojectsforwhichthefundsareinvestedthanthelenderdoes.(2)Adverseselection(逆向选择)istheproblemcreatedbyasymmetricinformationbeforethetransactionoccurs.Adverseselectioninfinancialmarketsoccurswhenthepotentialborrowerswhoarethemostlikelytodefaultaretheoneswhomostactivelyseekoutaloanandarethusmostlikelytobeselected.(3)Moralhazard(道德风险)istheproblemcreatedbyasymmetricinformationafterthetransactionoccurs.Moralhazardinfinancialmarketsistheriskthattheborrowermightengageinactivitiesthatareundesirablefromthelenderspointofview,becausetheymakeitlesslikelythattheloanwillbepaidback.7.What’sthefunctionofmoney?货币的职能？Moneyhasthreeprimaryfunctionsinanyeconomy:asamediumofexchange,asaunitofaccount,andasastoreofvalue.(1)Whenmoneyisusedtopayforgoodsandservices,itplaystheroleofamediumofexchange(流通手段).Theuseofmoneyasamediumofexchangepromoteseconomicefficiencybyminimizingthetimespentinexchanginggoodsandservices.(2)Thesecondroleofmoneyistoprovideaunitofaccount(价值尺度),thatis,itisusedtomeasurevalueofgoodsandservicesintheeconomy.(3)Moneyalsofunctionsasastoreofvalue(储藏手段).Astoreofvalueisusedtosavepurchasingpowerfromthetimeincomeisreceiveduntilthetimeitisspent.Thisfunctionofmoneyisuseful,becausemostofusdonotwanttospendourincomeimmediatelyuponreceivingit,butratherprefertowaituntilwehavethetimeorthedesiretoshop.8.What’stheFisherequationandFishereffect?费雪等式与费雪效应？(1)TheFisherequationstatesthatthenominalinterestrateequalstherealinterestrateplustheexpectedrateofinflation.Theequationtellsusthatallelseequal,ariseinacountry’sexpectedinflationratewilleventuallycauseanequalriseinthenominalinterestrate.Similarly,afallintheexpectedinflationratewilleventuallycauseafallinthenominalinterestrate.(2)Thislong-runrelationshipbetweeninflationandinterestratesiscalledtheFishereffect.TheFishereffectimplies,forexample,thatifU.S.inflationweretorisepermanentlyfromaconstantlevelof5percentperyeartoaconstantlevelof10percentperyear,dollarinterestrateswouldeventuallycatchupwiththehigherinflation,risingby5percentagepointsperyearfromtheirinitiallevel.Thesechangeswouldleavetherealrateofreturnondollarassetsunchanged.TheFishereffectisthereforeanotherexampleofthegeneralideathatinthelongrun,purelymonetarydevelopmentsshouldhavenoeffectonaneconomy’srealvariables.9.Howtoexplainthenegativerelationbetweenthequantityofmoneydemandedandtheinterestrate?Wecanexplainthatthequantityofmoneydemandedandtheinterestrateshouldbenegativelyrelatedbyusingtheconceptofopportunitycost(机会成本),theamountofrevenuesacrificedbytakingonecourseofactionratherthananother.Astheinterestrateonbondsrises,theopportunitycostofholdingmoneyrises,thusmoneyislessdesirableandthequantityofmoneydemandedmustfall.10.RiskPremium风险溢价Thespreadbetweentheinterestratesonbondswithdefaultriskanddefault-freebonds,bothofthesamematurity,calledtheriskpremium,indicateshowmuchadditionalinterestpeoplemustearntobewillingtoholdthatriskybond.11.Brieflyintroduceexpectationstheory,segmentedmarketstheoryandliquiditypremiumtheory.(1)Theexpectationstheory(预期假说)ofthetermstructurestatesthefollowingproposition:theinterestrateonalong-termbondwillequalanaverageoftheshort-terminterestratesthatpeopleexpecttooccuroverthelifeofthelong-termbond.(2)Thesegmentedmarketstheory(市场分割假说)ofthetermstructureseesmarketsfordifferent-maturitybondsascompletelyseparateandsegmented.Theinterestrateforeachbondwithadifferentmaturityisthendeterminedbythesupplyofanddemandforthatbond,withnoeffectsfromexpectedreturnsonotherbondswithothermaturities.(3)Theliquiditypremiumtheory(流动性溢价假说)ofthetermstructurestatesthattheinterestrateonalong-termbondwillequalanaverageofshort-terminterestratesexpectedtooccuroverthelifeofthelong-termbondplusaliquiditypremium.Itisalsocalledpreferredhabitattheory(偏好停留假说).12.What’sthedifferencebetweenadaptiveexpectationandrationalexpectation?(1)Adaptiveexpectation(适应性预期)statesthatexpectationsformfrompastexperienceonlyandchangesinexpectationswilloccurslowlyovertimeaspastdatachange.Forexample,expectationsofinflationistypicallyviewedasbeinganaverageofpastinflationrates.Soifinflationhadformerlybeensteadyata5%rate,expectationsoffutureinflationwouldbe5%also.(2)Rationalexpectation(理性预期)canbestatedasfollows:expectationswillbeidenticaltooptimalforecasts(thebestguessofthefuture)usingallavailableinformation.13.EfficientMarketHypothesis有效市场假说Theefficientmarkethypothesisstatesthatcurrentpricesinafinancialmarketwillbesetsothattheoptimalforecastofasecurity’sreturnusingallavailableinformationequalsthesecurity’sequilibriumreturn,becauseinanefficientmarketallunexploitedprofitopportunitieswillbeeliminatedbyarbitrager(套利者).14.“LemonsProblem”次品问题Aparticularaspectofthewaytheadverseselectionprobleminterfereswiththeefficientfunctioningofamarketiscalled“lemonsproblem”.Wecanusetheused-carmarkettoillustratethisconcept.Potentialbuyersofusedcarsarefrequentlyunabletoassessthequalityofthecar,thatis,theycan’ttellwhetheraparticularusedcarisagoodcaroralemon(次品).Thepricethatabuyerpaysmustthereforereflecttheaveragequalityofthecarsinthemarket,somewherebetweenthelowvalueofalemonandthehighvalueofagoodcar.Theownerofausedcar,bycontrast,ismorelikelytoknowwhetherthecarisagoodcaroralemon.Ifthecarisalemon,theownerismorethanhappytosellitatthepricethebuyeriswillingtopay,which,beingsomewherebetweenthevalueofalemonandagoodcar,isgreaterthanthelemonsvalue.However,ifthecarisagoodcar,theownerknowsthatthecarisundervaluedatthepricethebuyeriswillingtopay,andsotheownermaynotwanttosellit.Asaresultofthisadverseselection,fewgoodusedcarswillcometothemarket.Becausetheaveragequalityofausedcaravailableinthemarketwillbelowandbecausefewpeoplewanttobuyalemon,therewillbefewsales.Theused-carmarketwillfunctionpoorlyorevendisappear.15.Principal-agentProblem委托-代理问题Principal-agentproblemreferstothatthemanagersincontrol(theagents)mayactintheirowninterestratherthanintheinterestofthestockholder(theprincipals)becausethemanagershavelessincentivetomaximizeprofitsthanthestockholderdo.Theprincipal-agentproblem,whichisanexampleofmoralhazard,arisesonlybecauseamanagerhasmoreinformationabouthisactivitiesthanthestockholderdoes.So,thereisasymmetricinformation.16.What’s“irrationalexuberance”proposedbyAlanGreenspan?非理性繁荣Irrationalexuberancereferstoaphenomenonthatassetprices,inthestockmarketandrealestate,aredrivenwellabovetheirfundamentaleconomicvaluesbyinvestorpsychology.Theresultisanasset-pricebubble(资产价格泡沫),suchasthetechstockmarketbubbleofthelate1990sortherecenthousingpricebubbleinsubprimecrisis.17.Howtosolveasymmetricinformationproblems?如何解决信息不对称的问题？18.SecuritizationandSubprimemortgage资产证券化与次级抵押贷款(1)Subprimemortgagesaremortgagesforborrowerswithless-than-stellarcreditrecords.(2)Securitizationistheprocessoftransformingotherwiseilliquidfinancialassets(suchasresidentialmortgages,autoloans,andcreditcardreceivables),whichhavetypicallybeenthemainbusinessofbankinginstitutions,intomarketablecapitalmarketsecurities.19.What’stime-inconsistencyproblem?时间不一致问题Thetime-inconsistencyproblemissomethingwedealwithcontinuallyineverydaylife.Weoftenhaveaplanthatweknowwillproduceagoodoutcomeinthelongrun,butwhentomorrowcomes,wejustcan'thelpourselvesandwedenyourplanbecausedoingsohasshort-rungains.Inotherwords,wefindourselvesunabletoconsistentlyfollowagoodplanovertime,andthegoodplanissaidtobetime-inconsistentandwillsoonbeabandoned.20.PoliticalBusinessCycle政治经济周期Politicalbusinesscycleisaprocessthatcanbeillustratedinthefollowingexample.Justbeforeanelection,expansionarypoliciesarepursuedtolowerunemploymentandinterestrates.Aftertheelection,thebadeffectsofthesepolicies,thatishighinflationandhighinterestrates,comehometoroost,requiringcontractionarypoliciesthatpoliticianshopethepublicwillforgetbeforethenextelection.21.What’smoneymultiplierandwhatarethefactorsthataffectit?货币乘数及其影响因素？(1)Themoneymultiplier,denotedbym,tellsushowmuchthemoneysupplychangesforagivenchangeinthemonetarybase.Therelationshipbetweenthemoneysupply,themoneymultiplierandthemonetarybaseisdescribedbythefollowingequation:M=m×MB(2)Themoneymultiplierisafunctionofthecurrencyratiosetbydepositorc,theexcessreservesratiosetbybankse,andtherequiredreserveratiosetbytheFedr.Themoneymultipliermisthus22.Whatarethetoolsofmonetarypolicy?货币政策工具Therearethreetoolsofmonetarypolicythatcanbeconductedbythecentralbank,suchasopenmarketoperations,discountlendingandreserverequirements.(1)Openmarketoperations(公开市场操作)arethemostimportantmonetarypolicytool,becausetheyaretheprimarydeterminantsofchangesininterestratesandthemonetarybase,themainsourceoffluctuationsinthemoneysupply.Openmarketpurchasesexpandreservesandthemonetarybase,therebyincreasingthemoneysupplyandloweringshort-terminterestrates.Openmarketsalesshrinkreservesandthemonetarybase,decreasingthemoneysupplyandraisingshort-terminterestrates.Openmarketoperationshavefouradvantagesovertheothertoolsofmonetarypolicy:①OpenmarketoperationsoccurattheinitiativeoftheFed,whichhascompletecontrolovertheirvolume.②Openmarketoperationsareflexibleandprecise,andtheycanbeusedtoanyextent.③Openmarketoperationsareeasilyreversed.④Openmarketoperationscanbeimplementedquickly,sincetheyinvolvenoadministrativedelays.(2)ThefacilityatwhichbankscanborrowreservesfromtheFediscalledthediscountwindow(贴现窗口).Thefacilityisintendedtobeabackupsourceofliquidityforbanksduringfinancialcrisis.ThemostimportantadvantageofdiscountpolicyisthattheFedcanuseittoperformitsroleoflenderoflastresort(最后贷款人).ThedisadvantageofdiscountpolicyisthatthedecisionstotakeoutdiscountloansaremadebybanksandarethereforenotcompletelycontrolledbytheFed.(3)Changesinreserverequirements(法定存款准备金)affectthemoneysupplybycausingthemoneysupplymultipliertochange.Ariseinreserverequirementsreducestheamountofdepositsthatcanbesupportedbyagivenlevelofthemonetarybaseandwillleadtoacontractionofthemoneysupply.Ariseinreserverequirementsalsoincreasesthedemandforreservesandraisesthefederalfundsrate.Conversely,adeclineinreserverequirementsleadstoanexpansionofthemoneysupplyandafallinthefederalfundsrate.Reserverequirementshaveatleastthreedisadvantages:①Owingtofinancialinnovation,reserverequirementsarenolongerbindingformostbanks,sothistoolismuchlesseffectivethanitoncewas.②Raisingtherequirementscancauseimmediateliquidityproblemsforbankswherereserverequirementsarebinding.③Continuallyfluctuatingreserverequirementswouldalsocreatemoreuncertaintyforbanksandmaketheirliquiditymanagementmoredifficult.23.LawofOnePriceandTheoryofPurchasingPowerParity一价定理与购买力评价理论(1)Thelawofonepricestatesthatiftwocountriesproduceanidenticalgood,andtransportationcostsandtradebarriersareverylow,thepriceofthegoodshouldbethesamethroughouttheworldnomatterwhichcountryproducesit.(2)Thetheoryofpurchasingpowerparity(PPP)statesthatexchangeratesbetweenanytwocurrencieswilladjusttoreflectchangesinthepricelevelsofthetwocountries.ThetheoryofPPPissimplyanapplicationofthelawofonepricetonationalpricelevelsratherthantoindividualprices.ThestatementthatexchangeratesequalrelativepricelevelsissometimesreferredtoasabsolutePPP(绝对购买力平价).RelativePPP(相对购买力平价)statesthatthepercentagechangeintheexchangeratebetweentwocurrenciesoveranyperiodequalsthedifferencebetweenthepercentagechangesinnationalpricelevels.24.RealExchangeRate实际汇率Therealexchangeratereferstotherateatwhichdomesticgoodscanbeexchangedforforeigngoods.Ineffect,itisthepriceofdomesticgoodsrelativetothepriceofforeigngoodsdenominatedinthedomesticcurrency.Forexample,ifabasketofgoodsinNewYorkcosts$50,whilethecostofthesamebasketofgoodsinTokyocosts$75becauseitcosts7500yenwhiletheexchangerateisat100yenperdollar,thentherealexchangerateis0.66(=$50/$75).Therealexchangerateisbelowl,indicatingthatitischeapertobuythebasketofgoodsintheUnitedStatesthaninJapan.25.Whythetheoryofpurchasingpowerparitycannotfullyexplainexchangerates?购买力平价的缺陷(1)Contrarytotheassumptionofthelawofoneprice,transportcostsandrestrictionsontradecertainlydoexist.Thesetradebarriersmaybehighenoughtopreventsomegoodsfrombeingtradedbetweencountries.(2)Monopolisticpracticesingoodsmarketsmayinteractwithtransportcostsandothertradebarrierstoweakenfurtherthelinkbetweenthepricesofsimilargoodssoldindifferentcountries.(3)Becausetheinflationdatareportedindifferentcountriesarebasedondifferentcommoditybaskets,thereisnoreasonforexchangeratechangestooffsetofficialmeasuresofinflationdifferences,evenwhentherearenobarrierstotradeandallproductsaretradable.26.MonetaryNeutrality货币中性Monetaryneutralitystatesthatinthelongrun,aone-timepercentageriseinthemoneysupplyismatchedbythesameone-timepercentageriseinthepricelevel,leavingunchangedtherealmoneysupplyandallotherrealvariablessuchasrealinterestrates.27.ExchangeRateOvershooting汇率超调Thephenomenonthattheexchangeratefallsbymoreintheshortrunthanitdoesinthelongrunwhenthemoneysupplyincreasesiscalledexchangerateovershooting.Itcanhelpexplainwhyexchangeratesexhibitsomuchvolatility.Exchangerateovershootingisadirectconsequenceoftheshort-runrigidityofthepricelevel.Inahypotheticalworldwherethepricelevelcouldadjustimmediatelytoitsnew,long-runlevelafteramoneysupplyincrease,theinterestratewouldnotfallbecausepriceswouldadjustimmediatelyandpreventtherealmoneysupplyfromrising.Thus,theexchangeratewouldmaintainequilibriumsimplybyjumpingtoitsnew,long-runlevelrightaway.28.InterestParityCondition利率平价条件(1)Theuncoveredinterestparitycondition(非抛补利率平价)statesthatthedomesticinterestrateequalstheforeigninterestrateminustheexpectedappreciationofthedomesticcurrency,orequivalently,thedomesticinterestrateequalstheforeigninterestrateplustheexpectedappreciationoftheforeigncurrency.Ifthedomesticinterestrateishigherthantheforeigninterestrate,thereisapositiveexpectedappreciationoftheforeigncurrency,whichcompensatesforthelowerforeigninterestrate.Thisconditioncanberewrittenas(2)Thecoveredinterestparitycondition(抛补利率平价)statesthattheratesofreturnondollardepositsand“covered”foreigndepositsmustbethesame.Supposeyouwanttobuyaeurodepositwithdollarsbutwouldliketobecertainaboutthenumberofdollarsitwillbeworthattheendofayear.Youcanavoidexchangerateriskbybuyingaeurodepositand,atthesametime,sellingtheproceedsofyourinvestmentforward.Wesayyouhave“covered”yourself,thatis,avoidedthepossibilityofanunexpecteddepreciationoftheeuro.29.UnsterilizedForeignExchangeInterventionandSterilizedForeignExchangeIntervention(1)Aforeignexchangeinterventioninwhichacentralbankallowsthepurchaseorsaleofdomesticcurrencytohaveaneffectonthemonetarybase,iscalledanunsterilizedforeignexchangeintervention(非冲销式干预).Anunsterilizedinterventioninwhichdomesticcurrencyissoldtopurchaseforeignassetsleadstoagainininternationalreserves,anincreaseinthemoneysupply,andadepreciationofthedomesticcurrency.Anunsterilizedinterventioninwhichdomesticcurrencyispurchasedbysellingforeignassetsleadstoadropininternationalreserves,adecreaseinthemoneysupply,andanappreciationofthedomesticcurrency.(2)Aforeignexchangeinterventionwithanoffsettingopenmarketoperationthatleavesthemonetarybaseunchangediscalledasterilizedforeignexchangeintervention(冲销式干预).Asterilizedinterventionleavesthemoneysupplyunchangedandsohasnodirectwayofaffectinginterestratesortheexpectedfutureexchangerate.30.FixedExchangeRateRegime,FloatingExchangeRateRegimeandManagedFloatRegime(1)Inafixedexchangerateregime(固定汇率制),thevalueofacurrencyispeggedrelativetothevalueofoneothercurrency,whichiscalledtheanchorcurrency(锚货币),sothattheexchangerateisfixedintermsoftheanchorcurrency.(2)Inafloatingexchangerateregime(浮动汇率制),thevalueofacurrencyisallowedtofluctuateagainstallothercurrencies.(3)Whencountriesinterveneinforeignexchangemarketsinanattempttoinfluencetheirexchangeratesbybuyingandsellingforeignassets,theregimeisreferredtoasamanagedfloatingregime(管理浮动汇率制)oradirtyfloating(肮脏浮动).31.WhataretheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofGoldStandard?金本位的利与弊？(1)BeforeWorldWarI,theworldeconomyoperatedunderthegoldstandard,afixedexchangerateregimeinwhichthecurrencyofmostcountrieswasconvertibledirectlyintogoldatfixedrates,soexchangeratesbetweencurrencieswerealsofixed.(2)Thefixedexchangeratesunderthegoldstandardhadtheimportantadvantageofencouragingworldtradebyeliminatingtheuncertaintythatoccurswhenexchangeratesfluctuate.(3)Therearedisadvantagesofgoldstandardasfollows:①Adherencetothegoldstandardmeantthatacountryhadnocontroloveritsmonetarypolicy,becauseitsmoneysupplywasdeterminedbygoldflowsbetweencountries.②Monetarypolicythroughouttheworldwasgreatlyinfluencedbytheproductionofgoldandgolddiscoveries.32.CurrencyBoardandDollarization货币局制度与美元化(1)Currencyboard(货币局制度)meansthatthedomesticcurrencyisbacked100%byaforeigncurrencyandinwhichthenote-issuingauthority,whetherthecentralbankorthegovernment,establishesafixedexchangeratetothisforeigncurrencyandstandsreadytoexchangedomesticcurrencyfortheforeigncurrencyatthisratewheneverthepublicrequestsit.Acurrencyboardisjustavariantofafixedexchange-ratetargetinwhichthecommitmenttothefixedexchangerateisespeciallystrongbecausetheconductofmonetarypolicyisineffectputonautopilot,andtakencompletelyoutofthehandsofthecentralbankandthegovernment.(2)Dollarization(美元化)meanstheadoptionofasoundcurrency,liketheU.S.dollar,asacountry’smoney.Indeed,dollarizationisjustanothervariantofafixedexchange-ratetargetwithanevenstrongercommitmentmechanismthanacurrencyboardprovides.Thecommondisadvantageofbothregimesisthatacountrythattiesitsexchangeratetoananchorcurrencyofalargercountrylosescontrolofitsmonetarypolicy.33.QuantityTheoryofMoney货币数量论Thequantitytheoryofmoneystatesthatnominalincomeisdeterminedsolelybymovementsinthequantityofmoney.Wecanderivetheconclusionfromtheequationofexchange(交易方程式):MV=PY.Sincetheinstitutionalandtechnologicalfeaturesoftheeconomywouldaffectvelocityofmoney(货币流通速度)onlyslowlyovertime,sovelocityVwouldnormallybereasonablyconstantintheshortrun.Becausetheclassicaleconomiststhoughtthatwagesandpriceswerecompletelyflexible,theybelievedthatthelevelofaggregateoutputYproducedintheeconomyduringnormaltimeswouldremainatthefull-employmentlevel,soYintheequationofexchangecouldalsobetreatedasreasonablyconstantintheshortrun.So,fortheclassicaleconomists,thequantitytheoryofmoneyprovidedanexplanationofmovementsinthepricelevel:movementsinthepricelevelresultsolelyfromchangesinthequantityofmoney.34.LiquidityPreferenceTheory流动性偏好理论TheliquiditypreferencetheoryofJohnMaynardKeynespointedoutthattherearethreemotivesbehindthedemandformoney:thetransactionsmotive,theprecautionarymotive,andthespeculativemotive.Thedemandofmoneyfortransactionandprecautionarymotivesisproportionaltoincome,whilethedemandofmoneyforspeculativemotiveisnegativelyrelatedtothelevelofinterestrate.Sothedemandforrealmoneybalancesisafunctionofinterestrateandincomeasfollow35.Friedman’sModernQuantityTheoryofMoney弗里德曼的现代货币数量论Friedmanstatedthatthedemandformoneyshouldbeafunctionoftheresourcesavailabletoindividuals(theirwealth)andtheexpectedreturnsonotherassetsrelativetotheexpectedreturnonmoney.Fromthisreasoning,Friedmanexpressedhisformulationofthedemandformoneyasfollows:UnlikeKeynes’stheory,whichindicatesthatinterestratesareanimportantdeterminantofthedemandformoney,Friedman'stheorysuggeststhatchangesininterestratesshouldhavelittleeffectonthedemandformoney.36.CrowdingOutEffectofFiscalPolicy财政政策的挤出效应Expansionaryfiscalpolicywillcrowdoutinvestmentandnetexports,whichdecreasebecauseoftheriseintheinterestrate.Thissituationiscalledcrowdingout(挤出效应).Whenthedemandformoneyisunaffectedbytheinterestrate,theLMcurveisvertical.Anexpansionaryfiscalpolicydoesnotleadtoariseinoutputbutasharpininterestrate,whichmeanstheincreasedgovernmentspendinghavecompletelycrowedoutinvestmentandnetexports.Thissituationiscalledcompletecrowdingout(完全挤出).37.TransmissionMechanismsofMonetaryPolicy货币政策传导机制(1)TraditionalInterest-RateChannel利率机制Anexpansionarymonetarypolicyleadstoafallinrealinterestrates,whichinturnlowersthecostofcapital,causingariseininvestmentspending,therebyleadingtoanincreaseinaggregatedemandandariseinoutput.(2)Exchange