IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L06Fiscal课件

L-6FiscalPolicyandDebtSustainabilityPresenterClintonShiellsJointChina-IMFTrainingProgramCourseonMacroeconomicManagementandFinancialSectorIssuesCT14.05L-6FiscalPolicyandDebtSusLectureOutlineHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?Fiscalpolicyforshort-termmacroeconomicstabilityFiscalpolicytoreducevulnerabilityFiscalpolicyforgrowthandpovertyreductionThistrainingmaterialisthepropertyoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)andisintendedforuseinIMFInstitutecourses.AnyreuserequiresthepermissionoftheIMFInstitute.”2LectureOutlineHowdowemeasuHowDoWeMeasure

FiscalPolicy?3MMFHowDoWeMeasure

FiscalPoliHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?Fiscalpolicyistheuseofgovernmentspendingandtaxationtoinfluencetheeconomy.FlowindicatorsOverallfiscalbalance:differencebetweentotalrevenue(includinggrants)andtotalexpenditurespluslendingminusrepaymentsPrimarybalance:revenueminusnon-interest(primary)expenditureCurrentbalance:differencebetweencurrentrevenueandcurrentexpendituresCyclicallyadjustedbalance:nominalfiscalbalancenetofthecyclicalcomponentofthebudget4MMFHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?StockindicatorsNetworth:differencebetweenassetsandliabilitiesOff-balance-sheetitemse.g.,contingentliabilities,public-privatepartnerships(PPPs)AssetsLiabilitiesFinancial(e.g.,governmentdeposits)Nonfinancial(e.g.,publicroads)Governmentdebt5MMFHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicWhatisfiscalpolicyusedfor?Short-termmacroeconomicstabilizationReducingvulnerabilitiesGrowthandpovertyreductionRelativeimportanceoftheseobjectivesdependsoncountrycircumstances.6MMFWhatisfiscalpolicyusedforFiscalPolicyforShort-TermMacroeconomicStabilization7MMFFiscalPolicyforShort-TermMFiscalpolicyformacroeconomicstabilizationFiscalpolicycanbeusedfor:Mitigatingcyclicality(recurrentboomsandrecessions)TaminginflationReducingexternalcurrentaccountimbalancesManagingfinancialcrises8MMFFiscalpolicyformacroeconomiFiscalpolicyversusmonetarypolicyFiscalpolicyandmonetarypolicyshouldbedesignedintandemtogettherightmix.Whichismoreeffectiveinmoderatingcyclicality?Monetarypolicycanbeimplementedfasterbutfiscalpolicymayaffectoutputmoreimmediately.Ingeneral,fiscalpolicyshouldplayabiggerrolewhenmonetarypolicyisconstrained(e.g.,withafixedexchangerate,orwhennominalinterestratesareclosetozero,orwhenfinancialsystemsarelessdeveloped).9MMFFiscalpolicyversusmonetary1.CountercyclicalfiscalpolicyTwochannels:AutomaticstabilizersDiscretionarymeasures(fiscalstimulus)10MMF1.Countercyclicalfiscalpoli(ii)DiscretionaryfiscalpolicyKeyconsiderations:SizeofthefiscalstimulusMultiplierTimingCompositionDurationFiscalstimulusmeasuresshouldbetimely,targeted,andtemporary(TTT)11MMF(ii)DiscretionaryfiscalpoliWhatdeterminesthesizeofthemultiplier?Thesizeofthemultiplierislargerif:“Leakages”arefewHighmarginalpropensitytoconsume(c),lowmarginalpropensitytoimport(m)NoRicardianequivalenceMonetaryconditionsareaccommodativeSmallornoincreaseininterestrates(nocrowdingout)SmallornoexchangerateappreciationThecountry’sfiscalpositionafterthestimulusissustainable12MMFWhatdeterminesthesizeofth2.FiscalpolicyandinflationFiscalpolicycanaffectinflationthroughmanychannels:Intheshortrun,fiscalpolicyaffectsthepricelevelthroughitsimpactonaggregatedemand.Fiscalpolicycanleadtosustainedinflationifthefiscaldeficitismonetized.Fiscaladjustmentcanalsoaffectinflationviathedemandformoney,includingthroughinflationexpectations,interestrates,andconfidence.13MMF2.Fiscalpolicyandinflation3.Fiscalpolicyandthecurrentaccountbalance14MMFThegovernment’ssaving-investmentbalanceislinkedtothecurrentaccountbalancethroughtheexpostincomeidentity:Fiscalconsolidationcontributestoexternaladjustmentbutaone-for-oneimprovementinthecurrentaccountbalanceisunlikely.Inthecaseofexpansionaryfiscalconsolidationthecurrentaccountbalancecouldevendeteriorate.3.Fiscalpolicyandthecurre4.FiscalpolicyandfinancialcrisesWhenacapitalaccountcrisishits,fiscalconsolidationisusuallyunavoidablebecauseexternalfinancingdriesup.Iffiscalproblemsaretherootcauseofthefinancialcrisis(lossofconfidence),fiscalconsolidationisnecessarytoregainmarketaccessandlowerthecostofborrowing.Iffiscalproblemsarenottherootcause,fiscalcontractionmaybecounterproductive;fiscalexpansionmaybeneededinstead.15MMF4.FiscalpolicyandfinancialAchievingmedium-termfiscalcredibilityFiscalrulestoconstrainfuturebehaviorReasonablemulti-yearspendingceilingsFiscaltransparency;openandaccountablebudgetingEstablishapolitically-independentfiscalagenttomonitorfiscalpolicymakingProvidethepublicwithcomprehensiveinformationonthestateofpublicfinancesDisciplinedbudgetpreparationandexecutionMMF16Achievingmedium-termfiscalcMMF17Fiscalpolicyhasplayedasignificantroleinsupportingdemandsincethecrisis,withoff-budgetandLGFVspendingbecomingespeciallyimportantcountercyclicaltool…MMF17FiscalpolicyhasplayedFiscalPolicytoReduceVulnerability18MMFFiscalPolicytoReduceVulnerFiscalpolicytoreducefiscalvulnerabilityAcountry’spublicfinancesmayappearsound,butmaybevulnerableifunderlyingweaknessesthreatenitsfuturefiscalpositionandlimitthegovernment’sabilitytorespondtofiscalpolicychallenges.Examples:DebtsustainabilityContingentliabilitiesanddebtstructureFiscalrigiditiesEmergingfiscalpressures,e.g.,demographicchanges19MMFFiscalpolicytoreducefiscalDebtsustainabilityPublicdebtissustainablewhenthegovernmentcancontinueservicingitwithouttheneedforanunrealisticallylargefuturecorrectiontoitsrevenueorprimary(non-interest)expenditurepath.Marketexpectationsareimportanttoo—governmentsthatareabletoassuremarketsaboutfuturefiscalpoliciesmaybeabletomaintainlargerlevelsofdebtthanotherwise.20MMFDebtsustainabilityPublicdebtMMF21Augmentedfiscaldebthasrisentoabove45percentofGDP…MMF21Augmentedfiscaldebthas22MMFChina:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)22MMFChina:PublicDebtSustai23MMFChina:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)Primarybalanceshock(inpercentofGDP)andnopolicychangescenario(constantprimarybalance)Nopolicychange23MMFChina:PublicDebtSustai24MMFChina:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)Realdepreciationandcontingentliabilitiesshocks3/24MMFChina:PublicDebtSustaiLongertermfiscalpressuresDemographicchanges(mainlyagingpopulations)willposeincreasingburdensonpublicfinancesofmanydevelopedandsome developingcountries.Source:Heller(F&D2006)Oldagedependencyrate(%)25MMFLongertermfiscalpressuresDeFiscalPolicyforGrowthandPovertyReduction26MMFFiscalPolicyforGrowthandPFiscalpolicyforgrowthandpovertyreductionAsoundfiscalpositioniskeytoachievingmacroeconomicstability,whichiscriticalforsustainedgrowthandpovertyreduction.PerceptionsandinvestorconfidenceHigh-qualityfiscaladjustmentcanalsomobilizedomesticsavings,increasetheefficiencyofresourceallocation,andhelpmeetdevelopmentgoals.Governmentsaving“Fiscalspace”27MMFFiscalpolicyforgrowthandpMobilizingandallocatingresourcesEconomicgrowthdependsonaccumulatingphysicalandhumancapital,whichinturnrequiressavings.Asprivatesectorsavingsareoftenlowindevelopingcountries,fiscalpolicycanplayacentralroleinmobilizingresourcesbyraisingrevenueandreducinglessproductivespending.Butthemobilizedresourcesmustbeinvestedproductively.Publicspendingshouldbedirectedtoareaswiththehighestsocialreturnandshouldcomplement,ratherthancompetewith,theprivatesector(e.g.,health,education,andpensionsinChina).28MMFMobilizingandallocatingreso29MMFHighsocialsecuritycontributionratesareanimpedimenttodomesticrebalancinginChina…29MMFHighsocialsecuritycontFiscalspaceFiscalspaceintheimmediatetermNeedtofindresourcestofinancepressingexpenditurestodayLinktofiscalsustainabilityFiscalspaceinthemediumtermNeedtoensurethatfuturebudgetaryresourcesarenotexhaustedbygovernmentexpenditurecommitments,inordertohavescopetorespondtounanticipatedfiscalchallengesMMF30FiscalspaceFiscalspaceinthL-6FiscalPolicyandDebtSustainabilityPresenterClintonShiellsJointChina-IMFTrainingProgramCourseonMacroeconomicManagementandFinancialSectorIssuesCT14.05L-6FiscalPolicyandDebtSusLectureOutlineHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?Fiscalpolicyforshort-termmacroeconomicstabilityFiscalpolicytoreducevulnerabilityFiscalpolicyforgrowthandpovertyreductionThistrainingmaterialisthepropertyoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)andisintendedforuseinIMFInstitutecourses.AnyreuserequiresthepermissionoftheIMFInstitute.”32LectureOutlineHowdowemeasuHowDoWeMeasure

FiscalPolicy?33MMFHowDoWeMeasure

FiscalPoliHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?Fiscalpolicyistheuseofgovernmentspendingandtaxationtoinfluencetheeconomy.FlowindicatorsOverallfiscalbalance:differencebetweentotalrevenue(includinggrants)andtotalexpenditurespluslendingminusrepaymentsPrimarybalance:revenueminusnon-interest(primary)expenditureCurrentbalance:differencebetweencurrentrevenueandcurrentexpendituresCyclicallyadjustedbalance:nominalfiscalbalancenetofthecyclicalcomponentofthebudget34MMFHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicy?StockindicatorsNetworth:differencebetweenassetsandliabilitiesOff-balance-sheetitemse.g.,contingentliabilities,public-privatepartnerships(PPPs)AssetsLiabilitiesFinancial(e.g.,governmentdeposits)Nonfinancial(e.g.,publicroads)Governmentdebt35MMFHowdowemeasurefiscalpolicWhatisfiscalpolicyusedfor?Short-termmacroeconomicstabilizationReducingvulnerabilitiesGrowthandpovertyreductionRelativeimportanceoftheseobjectivesdependsoncountrycircumstances.36MMFWhatisfiscalpolicyusedforFiscalPolicyforShort-TermMacroeconomicStabilization37MMFFiscalPolicyforShort-TermMFiscalpolicyformacroeconomicstabilizationFiscalpolicycanbeusedfor:Mitigatingcyclicality(recurrentboomsandrecessions)TaminginflationReducingexternalcurrentaccountimbalancesManagingfinancialcrises38MMFFiscalpolicyformacroeconomiFiscalpolicyversusmonetarypolicyFiscalpolicyandmonetarypolicyshouldbedesignedintandemtogettherightmix.Whichismoreeffectiveinmoderatingcyclicality?Monetarypolicycanbeimplementedfasterbutfiscalpolicymayaffectoutputmoreimmediately.Ingeneral,fiscalpolicyshouldplayabiggerrolewhenmonetarypolicyisconstrained(e.g.,withafixedexchangerate,orwhennominalinterestratesareclosetozero,orwhenfinancialsystemsarelessdeveloped).39MMFFiscalpolicyversusmonetary1.CountercyclicalfiscalpolicyTwochannels:AutomaticstabilizersDiscretionarymeasures(fiscalstimulus)40MMF1.Countercyclicalfiscalpoli(ii)DiscretionaryfiscalpolicyKeyconsiderations:SizeofthefiscalstimulusMultiplierTimingCompositionDurationFiscalstimulusmeasuresshouldbetimely,targeted,andtemporary(TTT)41MMF(ii)DiscretionaryfiscalpoliWhatdeterminesthesizeofthemultiplier?Thesizeofthemultiplierislargerif:“Leakages”arefewHighmarginalpropensitytoconsume(c),lowmarginalpropensitytoimport(m)NoRicardianequivalenceMonetaryconditionsareaccommodativeSmallornoincreaseininterestrates(nocrowdingout)SmallornoexchangerateappreciationThecountry’sfiscalpositionafterthestimulusissustainable42MMFWhatdeterminesthesizeofth2.FiscalpolicyandinflationFiscalpolicycanaffectinflationthroughmanychannels:Intheshortrun,fiscalpolicyaffectsthepricelevelthroughitsimpactonaggregatedemand.Fiscalpolicycanleadtosustainedinflationifthefiscaldeficitismonetized.Fiscaladjustmentcanalsoaffectinflationviathedemandformoney,includingthroughinflationexpectations,interestrates,andconfidence.43MMF2.Fiscalpolicyandinflation3.Fiscalpolicyandthecurrentaccountbalance44MMFThegovernment’ssaving-investmentbalanceislinkedtothecurrentaccountbalancethroughtheexpostincomeidentity:Fiscalconsolidationcontributestoexternaladjustmentbutaone-for-oneimprovementinthecurrentaccountbalanceisunlikely.Inthecaseofexpansionaryfiscalconsolidationthecurrentaccountbalancecouldevendeteriorate.3.Fiscalpolicyandthecurre4.FiscalpolicyandfinancialcrisesWhenacapitalaccountcrisishits,fiscalconsolidationisusuallyunavoidablebecauseexternalfinancingdriesup.Iffiscalproblemsaretherootcauseofthefinancialcrisis(lossofconfidence),fiscalconsolidationisnecessarytoregainmarketaccessandlowerthecostofborrowing.Iffiscalproblemsarenottherootcause,fiscalcontractionmaybecounterproductive;fiscalexpansionmaybeneededinstead.45MMF4.FiscalpolicyandfinancialAchievingmedium-termfiscalcredibilityFiscalrulestoconstrainfuturebehaviorReasonablemulti-yearspendingceilingsFiscaltransparency;openandaccountablebudgetingEstablishapolitically-independentfiscalagenttomonitorfiscalpolicymakingProvidethepublicwithcomprehensiveinformationonthestateofpublicfinancesDisciplinedbudgetpreparationandexecutionMMF46Achievingmedium-termfiscalcMMF47Fiscalpolicyhasplayedasignificantroleinsupportingdemandsincethecrisis,withoff-budgetandLGFVspendingbecomingespeciallyimportantcountercyclicaltool…MMF17FiscalpolicyhasplayedFiscalPolicytoReduceVulnerability48MMFFiscalPolicytoReduceVulnerFiscalpolicytoreducefiscalvulnerabilityAcountry’spublicfinancesmayappearsound,butmaybevulnerableifunderlyingweaknessesthreatenitsfuturefiscalpositionandlimitthegovernment’sabilitytorespondtofiscalpolicychallenges.Examples:DebtsustainabilityContingentliabilitiesanddebtstructureFiscalrigiditiesEmergingfiscalpressures,e.g.,demographicchanges49MMFFiscalpolicytoreducefiscalDebtsustainabilityPublicdebtissustainablewhenthegovernmentcancontinueservicingitwithouttheneedforanunrealisticallylargefuturecorrectiontoitsrevenueorprimary(non-interest)expenditurepath.Marketexpectationsareimportanttoo—governmentsthatareabletoassuremarketsaboutfuturefiscalpoliciesmaybeabletomaintainlargerlevelsofdebtthanotherwise.50MMFDebtsustainabilityPublicdebtMMF51Augmentedfiscaldebthasrisentoabove45percentofGDP…MMF21Augmentedfiscaldebthas52MMFChina:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)22MMFChina:PublicDebtSustai53MMFChina:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)Primarybalanceshock(inpercentofGDP)andnopolicychangescenario(constantprimarybalance)Nopolicychange23MMFChina:PublicDebtSustai54MMFChina:PublicDebtSustainability:BoundTests(AugmenteddebtinpercentofGDP)Realdepreciationandcontingentliabilitiesshocks3/24MMFChina:PublicDebtSustaiLongertermfiscalpressuresDemographicchanges(mainlyagingpopulations)willposeincreasingburdensonp