国际贸易与金融II(双语)课程国际经济学16课件

1、1International Economics Lectured by Yuanfen TuSchool of International Trade and Economics Email:国际经济学1International Economics LectuInternational EconomicsBy Robert J. Carbaugh9th EditionChapter 16:Exchange-Rate SystemsInternational EconomicsBy RobIntroductionExchange-rate practices after world war

2、IINature and operation of actual exchange-rate systemsEconomic factors that influence the choice of alternative exchange-rate systemsIntroductionExchange-rate pracExchange-Rate PracticesFloating or Fixed?IMF principles for member nations: Exchange rate should not be manipulated to prevent effective

3、balance-of-payments adjustments or to gain unfair competitive gains Members should act to counter short-term exchange market disorders When members intervene in markets, they should take into account the interests of other members.Exchange-rate practices of IMF members (Table 15.1) Choosing an excha

4、nge-rate system (Table 15.2)Exchange rate systemsExchange-Rate PracticesFloatinBackLegal tender:法定货币Pegged exchange rates within horizontal bands:水平带内盯住汇率制度Exchange rates within crawling bands: 带内爬行盯住汇率制度BackLegal tender:法定货币Pegged exBackA nation may choose different exchange rate system at differen

5、t time. BackA nation may choose differFixed Exchange-Rate SystemGeneral practice until the 1970s (1946-1973)Primarily used by small, developing nations Currencies are anchored (pegged) to a key currencyKey currency is used to as a means of international settlementDeveloping nations can stabilize the

6、 domestic-currency prices of their imports and exportsTo Exert restraint on domestic policies and reduce inflationMajor key currencies of the world (Table 15.3) Exchange rate systemsFixed Exchange-Rate SystemGeneBackBackFixed Exchange-Rate SystemAnchoring (Pegging) to a single currencyDeveloping nat

7、ions with a single industrial-country partnerAnchoring to a group or basket of currenciesDeveloping nations with more than one major trading partnerHelps to average out fluctuations Anchoring to the special drawing right (SDR)Basket of four currencies (Table 15.4)Increased stabilityContinuedExchange

8、 rate systemsFixed Exchange-Rate SystemAnchBackThe Special Drawing Right (SDR) is an international reserve asset created by the IMF to supplement existing foreign exchange reservesIt serves as a unit of account for the IMFThe basket is to include ,in proportional amounts, the currencies of the membe

9、rs having the largest exporter of goods and services during the previous five years. It is the weighted average value of currencies of 4 IMF members: dollar, pound, euro, & yenBackThe Special Drawing Right Fixed Exchange-Rate SystemPar value（平价） and official exchange rate（官方汇率）Governments assign the

10、ir currencies a par value in terms of gold or other key currenciesDetermining official exchange rate by comparing the par values of two currenciesContinuedExchange rate systemsFixed Exchange-Rate SystemPar Fixed Exchange-Rate SystemExample 1:1ounce gold=$35 1ounce gold= 12.50The official exchange ra

11、te between dollar and pound is $2.80= 1Example 2:Bolivian central bank fix their peso at 20peso=US $1Ecuadors sucre is set at 10 sucres (苏克雷）=US $1The official exchange rate between the peso and sucre is 1peso=0.5 sucreContinuedExchange rate systemsFixed Exchange-Rate SystemExamFixed Exchange-Rate S

12、ystemExchange-rate stabilization Set up an exchange-stabilization fund （外汇稳定基金）to defend the official ratePurchases and sales of foreign currencies to iron out short-term fluctuations (Figure 15.2)Fundamental disequilibriumOver the long run, the official exchange rate and the market exchange rate mo

13、ve apart ContinuedExchange rate systemsFixed Exchange-Rate SystemExchBackBackFixed Exchange-Rate SystemDevaluation（法定贬值）Home currencys exchange value depreciates, counteracting a payments deficitRevaluation（法定升值）Home currencys exchange value appreciates, counteracting a payments surplusExpenditure-s

14、witching instrumentsWork on relative prices to divert domestic and foreign expenditures between domestic and foreign goodsContinuedExchange rate systemsFixed Exchange-Rate SystemDevaFixed Exchange-Rate SystemDecisions to be made before implementationIf an adjustment in the official exchange rate is

15、necessary to correct a payments disequilibriumWhen the adjustment will occurHow large the adjustment should beContinuedFixed Exchange-Rate SystemDeciExchange rate system alternativesDevaluation and RevaluationThe terms devaluation and revaluation refer to a legal redefinition of a currencys par valu

16、e under a system of fixed exchange rate.The terms depreciation and appreciation refer to the actual impact on the market exchange rate caused devaluation and revaluation or to changes in an exchange rate stemming from changes in the supply of or demand for foreign exchanges.Exchange rate system alte

17、rnatiDevaluation and revaluationDevaluation/revaluation: legal and economic impactIn the legal sense, a devaluation or revaluation occurs when the home country redefines its currency price of the official numeraireThe economic effect of the par values redefinition is the impact on the market rate of

18、 exchange.Devaluation and revaluationDevDevaluation/revaluation: legal and economic impactDevaluation and revaluationDevaluation/revaluation: legalDevaluation/revaluation: legal and economic impactDevaluation and revaluationDevaluation/revaluation: legalA devaluation in the legal sense does not nece

19、ssarily ensure a devaluation in the economic sense. It occurs only if other nations do not retaliate by initiating offsetting devaluations of their own.Currency devaluations do have foreign repercussions similar to those of domestic policies.Devaluation/revaluation: legal and economic impactDevaluat

20、ion and revaluationA devaluation in the legal senBretton woods systemBretton Woods System of Fixed Exchange RatesAdjustable pegged rates (1946-1973)The value of the dollar was pegged to gold and the dollar was convertible to gold at the mint parity rate. (1ounce=35$)Other nations peg the value of th

21、eir currencies to the dollar and freely convert their currencies for the dollar at the pegged value.Bretton woods systemBretton WoDouble Hook SystemDouble Hook SystemBretton woods systemBretton Woods System of Fixed Exchange RatesAdjustable pegged rates (1946-1973)Market exchange rates are kept with

22、in a band of 1 percent on either side of parity. In 1971, the margin were widen to 2.25.When fundamental disequilibrium occurs, member nations can repeg its exchange rate. up to 10 percent without permission from IMF and by greater then 10 percent with the IMFs permissionBretton woods systemBretton

23、Wo Adjustable pegged ratesBretton woods system Adjustable pegged rateBretton woods systemAdjustable pegged ratesShortcomingsAdjustments in prices and incomes often conflicted with domestic-stabilization objectives.Devaluation seemed to indicate a failure of domestic policies and a loss of internatio

24、nal prestige.It is difficulty to estimating the new equilibrium rate.Once the market exchange rate reached the margin of the permissible band around parity, it in effect became a rigid rate .Bretton woods systemAdjustableBretton woods systemAdjustable pegged ratesThe defects in the Bretton Woods sys

25、temThe Triffin dilemma / 特里芬两难The inherent conflict of the U.S. Dollar being both a national currency and an international currency. Dilemma of liquidity(清偿力) and confidenceBretton woods systemAdjustableBretton woods systemAdjustable pegged ratesThe defects in the Bretton Woods system1960年，美国耶鲁大学教授特

26、里芬在其著作黄金与美元危机中指出：布雷顿森林制度以一国货币作为主要国际储备货币，在黄金生产停滞的情况下，国际储备的供应完全取决于美国的国际收支状况：美国的国际收支保持顺差，国际储备资产不敷国际贸易发展的需要；美国的国际收支保持逆差，国际储备资产过剩，美元发生危机，危及国际货币制度。这种难以解决的内在矛盾，国际经济学界称之为“特里芬难题”，它决定了布雷顿森林体系的不稳定性。 Bretton woods systemAdjustableU.S. run deficits U.S. run surplusliquidityconfidenceDollar shortage 1944-1958; do

27、llar glut 1959-1971Bretton woods systemAdjustable pegged ratesU.S. run deficits liquidityconDollar value per ounce of gold1944 1971 1973 1盎司值美元353842.22脱钩浮动Bretton woods systemAdjustable pegged ratesDollar value per ounce of golStabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs. dollarizati

28、onA currency board is a monetary authority that issues notes and coins convertible into a foreign anchor currency at a fixed exchange rateThe rate is usually set in law, and the board must have foreign exchange reserves large enough to cover the domestic currency in circulationPut another way, the d

29、omestic money supply is limited by the amount of foreign reserves on handStabilizing developing countryA currency board exists when a countrys central bank commits to back its monetary base its money supply entirely with foreign reserves at all times.This means that a unit of domestic currency canno

30、t be introduced into the economy without an additional unit of foreign exchange reserves being obtained first.Currency boards do not make loans or finance government deficitsStabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs. dollarizationA currency board exists when aStabilizing developing

31、 country currenciesCurrency boards vs. dollarizationThe major benefits of the currency-board system are:Making a nations currency and exchange-rate regimes more rule-bound and predictablePlacing an upper bound on the nations base money supplyArresting any tendencies in an economy toward inflationFor

32、cing the government to restrict its borrowing to what foreign and domestic lenders are willing to lend it at market interest ratesEngendering confidence in the soundness of the nations moneyCreating confidence and promoting trade investment, and economic growthStabilizing developing countryStabilizi

33、ng developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs. dollarization (contd)Concerns about currency boards:It prevents a country from pursuing a discretionary monetary policy and reduces its economic independence.It lacks a lender of last resort.It creates a colonial relationship with the anchor curren

34、cy.Stabilizing developing country1983年10月15日，港英政府对港币发行和汇率制度作出的安排：要求发钞银行（汇丰银行和渣达银行，1993年中国银行香港分行也成为发钞银行）在增发港元纸币时，必须按1美元兑7.8港元的比价向外汇基金缴纳等值美元，以换取港元的负债证明书，作为发钞的法定准备金，这一安排标志着香港联系汇率制的诞生。因此，香港的联系汇率制实质上是美元汇兑本位制。 Stabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs. dollarization (contd)1983年10月15日，港英

35、政府对港币发行和汇率制度作出的安当港元现钞从流通中回笼后，发钞行可以用同样的比价向外汇基金换回美元，同时赎回负债证明书；发钞行以同样的方式为其他银行提供和收回港元现钞；1美元兑换7.8港元的固定比价只适用于发钞行和外汇基金之间，发钞行和其他银行之间以及银行同业、银行与客户之间的港元交易全部按市场汇率进行。 Stabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs. dollarization (contd)当港元现钞从流通中回笼后，发钞行可以用同样的比价向外汇基金换 香港的联系汇率制以美元为锚货币；官方汇率 1美元：7.8港元商业银

36、行发行港元，100%美元发行准备发行汇率与市场汇率并存 一般银行发行银行（汇丰、渣打、中银）外汇基金管理局负债证明书1:7.8000上缴US$1:7.8000US$HK$Currency boards vs. dollarization (contd)Stabilizing developing country currencies 香港的联系汇率制一般发行银行外汇基金负债证明书1:7.81）美元流动均衡机制。当港元被抛售或资本流出导致美元减少时，由于美元减少，发钞银行不仅不能增发港币，还须向外汇基金交回负债证明书赎回美元，导致基础货币减少。由于货币的乘数效应，货币供应量将成倍数减少，而这又将

37、导致利率上升，物价趋于下降，最终使港元趋于稳定。2）套利机制。 香港的联系汇率制有两个内在的自我调节机制： Stabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs. dollarization (contd)1）美元流动均衡机制。香港的联系汇率制有两个内在的自我调节机 香港联系汇率制的两个内在的自我调节机制：1. 国际收支的自动调节机制 2. 套利机制国际收支发行准备货币供应量物价、利率美元升值美元贬值退美元买港元退港元买美元美元供给增加美元供给减少美元贬值美元升值 香港联系汇率制的两个内在的自我调节机制：国际收支发行准备2、香港

38、联系汇率制的利弊 联系汇率制的最大优点有利于香港金融的稳定，而市场汇率围绕联系汇率窄幅波动的运行也有助于香港国际金融中心，国际贸易中心和国际航运中心地位的巩固和加强，增强市场信心。 2）套利机制。 金管局从体制上提供了维护联系汇率制的保障。 Stabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs. dollarization (contd)2、香港联系汇率制的利弊 联系汇率制的最大优点2）套利机制。联系汇率制度的弱点联系汇率使香港的经济行为以及利率货币供应量等指标过分依赖和受制于美国，从而严重削弱了运用利率和货币供应量杠杆调节本地

39、区经济的能力。同时，联系汇率也使通过汇率调节国际收支的功能无从发挥。 2、香港联系汇率制的利弊 Stabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs. dollarization (contd)联系汇率制度的弱点2、香港联系汇率制的利弊 StabilizStabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs. dollarization (contd)Dollarization: residents of a country use the U.S. dollar

40、alongside or instead of their local currencyUnofficial dollarization (partial dollarization): residents hold assets and bank accounts denominated in dollars Official dollarization: U.S. dollar replaces local currency; occurred in U.S. Virgin Islands, the Marshall islands, Ecuador etc.Stabilizing dev

41、eloping countryStabilizing developing country currenciesCurrency boards vs. dollarization (contd)The reasons why dollarize:Countries use dollarization to reduce risks for investors and avoid problems with domestic inflation and devaluationsDecrease in transaction costs Greater openness results from

42、a system where exchange controls are unnecessary and BOP crises are minimized.Stabilizing developing countryEffects of Dollarization EcuadorAccepting the monetary policy of the Federal ReserveRisk that business cycles might not coincideFederal Reserve is not their lender of last resortLoss of seigni

43、orageFreedom to decide how to spend its tax dollarsEcuador could establish its own tariffs, subsidies, and trade policiesConstraint: No recourse to printing local currencyCurrency boards vs. dollarization (contd)Stabilizing developing country currenciesEffects of Dollarization EcuStabilizing develop

44、ing country currenciesCurrency boards vs. dollarization (contd)Implications of Dollarization for the U.S.For each dollar sent abroad, Americans enjoy a one-time increase in the amount of goods and services they are able to consumeThe USA gets an interest-free loan from other countriesUse of U.S. cur

45、rency abroad might hinder the formulation and execution of monetary policy More pressure on the Federal Reserve to conduct policy according to the interests of EcuadorStabilizing developing countryFloating Exchange RatesCurrency prices established in the foreign-exchange marketWithout restrictions i

46、mposed by government policiesEquilibrium exchange rate equates the demand for and supply of the home currencyExchange rate system alternativesFloating Exchange RatesCurrencFloating Exchange RatesAchieving market equilibriumExample: Foreign-exchange market in Swiss francs in the United States (Figure

47、 15.3)Market equilibrium will be established at a point where the quantities of foreign exchange supplied and demanded are equalContinuedExchange rate system alternativesFloating Exchange RatesAchieviBackBackFloating Exchange RatesTrade restrictions, jobs, and floating exchange ratesImport restricti

48、ons will gradually shift jobs from other industries to the protected industryNo significant impact on aggregate employmentShort-run employment gains in the protected industry will be offset by long-run employment losses in other industriesContinuedExchange rate system alternativesFloating Exchange R

49、atesTrade rArguments For and Against Floating RatesAdvantagesSimplicity Continuous adjustment in the balance of paymentsAdverse effects of prolonged disequilibriums are minimizedPartially insulates the home economy from external forcesFreedom to pursue policies that promote domestic balanceDisadvant

50、agesUnregulated market leads to wide fluctuations in currency valuesProhibitively high cost of hedgingFlexibility to set independent policies leading to inflationary bias（通货膨胀偏差）Summarized in Table 15.5Exchange rate system alternativesArguments For and Against FloaBackBackManaged Floating RatesInfor

51、mal guidelines established by IMF (1973) Based on two concernsNations intervening in exchange markets Clean float and dirty floatDisorderly markets with erratic fluctuationsUnder managed floating, a nation: Can alter the degree of intervention Can intervene to reduce short-term fluctuations: Leaning

52、 against the wind （逆势干预）Should not act aggressively with respect to their currency exchange ratesCan choose target rates and intervene to support themExchange rate system alternativesManaged Floating RatesInformalManaged Floating Rates in the Short Run and Long RunUnder a managed floatMarket interve

53、ntion is used to stabilize exchange rates in the short runIn the long run, a managed float allows market forces to determine exchange ratesExample: Theory of a managed float in a two-country framework (Figure 15.4) Exchange rate system alternativesManaged Floating Rates in the BackBackExchange-Rate

54、Stabilization and Monetary PolicyStabilization requires the central bank to adopt:An expansionary monetary policy to offset currency appreciationA contractionary monetary policy to offset currency depreciationExample: Exchange-rate stabilization and monetary policy (Figure 15.5)Long-run effectivenes

55、s of using monetary policy to stabilize the exchange value of the currency is limitedExchange rate system alternativesExchange-Rate Stabilization anBackBackExchange rate system alternativesBank of Japan Intervenes to slow Yens RiseIn June and July of 1999, the bank of Japan conducted several direct

56、interventions in the currency marketsA strong yen would undermine Japans fragile economy.the foreign exchange market is too big and deep to successfully fight it for long. Exchange rate system alternatiThe Crawling PegSmall, frequent changes in the par value of currency Correct balance-of-payments d

57、isequilibriumUsed primarily by nations having high inflation ratesProponentsFlexibility of floating rates with stability of fixed ratesMore responsive to changing competitive conditionsAvoids changes that are frequently wide of the mark Frustrates speculators with their irregularityIMF viewHard to a

58、pply this system to industrialized nations whose currencies serve as a source of international liquidityExchange rate system alternativesThe Crawling PegSmall, frequenExchange rate system alternatives The crawling pegDifferences from the system of adjustable pegged rates:Under the adjustable peg, cu

59、rrencies are tied to a par value that changes infrequently (perhaps once every several years) but suddenly, usually in large jumps.Under the crawling peg, a nation can make small frequent changes in par values, perhaps several times a year. Exchange rate system alternatiExchange rate system alternat

60、ivesExchange controlsSome nations (most, until the 1950s) use controls over foreign exchange to control the balance of paymentsAt the extreme, the government can have a monopoly over buying and selling foreign exchange, capturing export income and limiting import expendituresMultiple exchange rates