印尼：消费者剖析

1、EQUITIESCONSUMER BRANDS & RETAILFebruary 2019SelvianaAripin HYPERLINK / We asked 1,000 Indonesians50 500 a is aBuy-rated LPPFvideo with Selviana Disclaimer & Disclosures: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analystcertifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer,

2、which forms part of it.MCI (P) 065/01/2019 MCI (P) 016/02/2018Why read this report?Indonesias GDP is largely consumption driven, which means it matters a lot what the countrys shoppers do. So, in a proprietary survey, we asked more than 1,000 of them 50 questions (and another 500 smokers a separate

3、11 questions) about their preferencesWe found widespread optimism about the future, but that doesnt mean they are turning into big spenders. Where they expect more income, they plan to save and invest more; and upgrading the quality of what they buy isnt apriorityWe on Selviana Aripin*, CFA AnalystT

4、he Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch HYPERLINK mailto:selviana.aripin.sg selviana.aripin.sg+65 6658 0610*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. and not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsKey survey takeaways on Indonesias consum

5、ers71% expect at least a 10% increase in household income over the next 12months.56% say their household income has increased by 10% or more in the last 12months.In spite of their optimism, they are conservative about their spending: most say saving is their priority and upgrading isnot.44% spend be

6、tween 26% and 50% of their income onfood.People tend to spend more on selected products like milk, ice cream, and personal care in Jakarta than in otherplaces.Not many people are worried about job security or personaldebt.In the medium term most are eager to start a new business and/or go on holiday

7、 somewhere inIndonesia.68% say they want to cut expenses to meet their medium-termgoals.Those aged 18-34 value top personal care brands less than do the people older thanthem.Key data behind Indonesias consumersof respondents indicate that they expect at least a 10% increase in household income over

8、 the next months56%of respondents indicate that their household income has increased by 10% or more in the last12 months IDIn spite of the optimism, the spending pattern remains conservative, with most respondents indicating saving as a top priority. Upgrading is not a priority for most consumersMos

9、t respondents are not worried about job security. Neither are they worried about personal debt levelIDIn spite of the optimism, the spending pattern remains conservative, with most respondents indicating saving as a top priority. Upgrading is not a priority for most consumers44%of respondents spend

10、between 26% and 50% of their income on food68%of respondents have a preference for cutting down expenses to meet medium-term goalsIn the personal care space, consumers aged 18-34 are generally less favourably disposed to the top brands today than those aged 35 or aboveConsumption frequency of select

11、 products (milk, ice cream, and personal care) is generally higher in Jakarta than elsewhereSource: HSBCMost respondents medium-term plans include starting a newbusiness and going on holiday in a domestic locationKey HSBC stock callsIndofood CBP ICBP IJCurrent price:Indofood CBP ICBP IJIDR10,425Targ

12、et price:ReduceIDR8,300ReduceUp/downside:-20.4% We are cautious on ICBP for the following reasons: (1) Noodles are a well-penetrated product category in Indonesia; (2) the current share price embeds for a long time unsustainable expectations regarding operating margins for instant noodles. Our surve

13、y shows that ICBPs smaller brands (Sarimi, Supermie and Popmie) are less favoured. Given that about 40% of ICBPs market is attached to brands that are less-favoured, we are sceptical that ICBPs recently achieved 3-4% volume growth will be sustainable. Our DCF-based target price of IDR8,300 translate

14、s into 22.2x 2019e PE and 13.0 x 2019e EV/EBITDA. Key upside risks: (1) Sustainable volume growth for the noodles segment at 3-4% and (2) a depressed level of input costs over a prolonged period.Unilever Indonesia UNVR IJCurrent price:Unilever Indonesia UNVR IJIDR49,250Target price:ReduceIDR38,000Re

15、duceUp/downside:-22.8% We are cautious on UNVR due to (1) concerns over rising competitive environment, particularly in the Home and Personal Care segment, (2) elevated accounts receivables outstanding days, which signal that future volume is at risk, and (3) concerns that advertising & promotion ef

16、ficiency programmes may hamper top-line growth. Our survey suggests tough competition in skin care and hair care. Our DCF-based target price of IDR38,000 translates into 36.9x 2019e PE and 25.4x 2019e EV/EBITDA. Key upside risk: Improving consumer purchasing power and easing competition could drive

17、faster-than- expected revenue growth.Gudang Garam GGRM IJCurrent price:Gudang Garam GGRM IJIDR82,575Target price:ReduceIDR60,500ReduceUp/downside:-26.7% We see the following headwinds: (1) the size of the capital expenditure outlay of the airport in Kediri; (2) a lack of customer purchasing power, e

18、specially given increases in administered prices of electricity and petrol. GGRMs products do not generally rate as well as HMSPs brands on a Net Promoter Score basis. Our DCF-based target price of IDR60,500 translates into 13.6x 2019e PE and 8.8x 2019e EV/EBITDA.Key upside risk: Improvement in volu

19、me, penetration and pricing ability of the companys products.Matahari Dept StoreLPPF IJMatahari Dept StoreLPPF IJIDR6,700Target price:BuyIDR16,200BuyUp/downside:+141.8% We like LPPF for the following reasons: (1) its position as the dominant retailer in Indonesia and its cash generation ability; (2)

20、 the strength of its private label brands, which should keep margins sustainable going ahead; (3) we expect the company to grow faster in regions outside Jakarta due to the lower level of internet penetration. Our survey suggests that among the bricks-and-mortar stores, Matahari Department Store rem

21、ains favoured. Our DCF-based target price of IDR16,200 translates into 22.8x 2018e PE and 16.0 x 2018e EV/EBITDA.Key downside risk: Sharp deceleration in Indonesias economic growth and consumer spending.Note: Priced at close of 13 February 2019 Source: HSBC estimatesRelated reportsAnatomy of the Con

22、sumer series HYPERLINK /R/10/QLMl69phtdpH Poland: Anatomy of the Consumer: Optimism peppered with caution, 23 January2019 HYPERLINK /R/10/sDMzsgnhtdpH UK: Anatomy of the Consumer: Evolution of issues, 16 January2019 HYPERLINK /R/10/TBbGtmdhtdpH Turkey: Anatomy of the Consumer: A difficult year, 10 J

23、anuary2019 HYPERLINK /R/10/NcHgW9hhtdpH Russia: Anatomy of the Consumer: Feeling the pinch, 27 January2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/PfsjvP6htdpH Mexico: Anatomy of the Consumer: What do Mexican consumers want?, 26 November2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/7FKfXdVhtdpH South Africa: Anatomy of the Consumer: Consumers are

24、worried, 22 October2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/jXqvBdXhtdpH Brazil: Anatomy of the Consumer: What do Brazilian consumers want?, 13 April2018 HYPERLINK /R/10/tmCB7KNhtdpH US: Anatomy of the Consumer: What do US consumers want?, 18 January2018China: Anatomy of the Consumer: HYPERLINK /R/10/cQzSmxHHbO3a?docid

25、=951364 What young, wealthy Chinese aspire tonow,6 September 2018Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Why readthisreport?1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Key data behind HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Indonesias consumers2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Key HSBCstock calls3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Relatedreports4 HYPERLINK l _bo

26、okmark4 Executivesummary6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Hopesand fears20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Food28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Beverage36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Personal care40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Retail53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Tobacco56 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Know your respond

27、ents58 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Valuationandrisks60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Disclosureappendix65 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Disclaimer68Executive summaryIt is easy to assume that, as with many other fast-growing developing countries, the Indonesian consumer will turn into a big spender, poised to bring

28、home products of higher quality. So we put together our own survey of more than 1,000 of them and asked how they see the future and what products they like. (Separately, we asked smokers what they like to puff on.) We found optimism, but we didnt find a whole lot of Theysayiftheyhavemoremoneytheywil

29、lsave it or invest it or go on holiday (in Indonesia). A conservative lot mostly happy with what they buy now and not in search of higher quality. This has big implications for those stocks that derive their top lines from what shoppers do and dont like. We tell you in detail about all this and what

30、 it means for key stocks: ICBP, UNVR, HMSP, GGRM, andLPPF.Consumer optimism and key concernsAs regular readers of our ASEAN consumer research will know, we have had a cautious view regarding the Indonesian consumer for some time. Throughout 2018, revenue growth across a number of consumer companies

31、has been tepid. Capital outflows, a depreciating Rupiah (vs USD), rising import costs and higher domestic interest rates have depressed what many had thought would be one of the great untapped consumer markets not just of Asia, but the world. However, with Bank Indonesias consumer confidence index u

32、p in December 2018, and HSBC economists predicting that an increase in government spending will drive a recovery in private consumption growth from 5.1% in 2018 to 5.3% in 2019, we thought it was time to step back and gauge the health of the Indonesian consumer. In doing so we explain why we do not

33、expect the benefits of the improving macro-environment to filter down to corporateearnings.This report details the results of an extensive proprietary consumer survey we conducted between 7 and 13 December 2018. Like all such efforts, the results were in some respects confounding, but overall instru

34、ctive. Indonesian consumers are healthy but cautious. They expects better times ahead, but not so much better that they are ready to spend today what they can only earn tomorrow. Indeed, one of the more interesting takeaways of our survey is that while most respondents expect an increase in househol

35、d income of 10% or more, they are more likely to save or invest it than spend. Indonesian consumers are not yet ready to loosen their purse strings.Our proprietary surveysThe survey, the most recent in a series by HSBC Research, attempts to glean insights into consumer spending patterns. In partners

36、hip with Toluna Analytics, we asked 1,037 Indonesians 50 questions on a variety of topics related to spending priorities and another 528 smokers 11 questions about their tobacco preferences.Most respondents between the ages of 18 55, 60% of between 18 and34and38%35and54.nationallyrepresentativeinter

37、msof50andJakarta,50%Javaand25%Some59%havemonthlyhouseholdofIDR6morand18%oforabove.We asked them questions about various product brands and calculated those brands Net Promoter Scores (NPS), a measure of customer satisfaction or dissatisfaction with aproduct.Exhibit 1: Our Anatomy of the consumer rep

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45、01916 Jan-201918-Feb-2019Top two preferred allocation choices in case of extra incomeAllocation #1Domestic travel Save forretirement/ investingEntertainment Spendonsmaller physical items (clothing, cosmetics, etc)Save for retirement/ investing Repay debtSavings/ retirementBig-ticket items Saving for

46、retirement/Pay down debt Eating outSavingAllocation #2investingPay down debt Medium-ticket Repayment ofSavings/investmentInvestmentitemsdebtTop two concerns Concern#1Concern#2Real estate pricesJob securityHealthcareInflationLiving costsN.A.InflationTerrorismMedical/ Insurance costsCrimeN.A.Medical/

47、insurance costRising inflation Rising cost oflivingLivingcostsHealthCrime rateRising cost of livingSource: HSBCKey insights into the Indonesian consumerOptimistic outlook: The overall outlook is optimistic, with approximately 71% of respondents expecting at least a 10% increase in household income o

48、ver the next 12 months.Furthermore,41%expectatleasta20%increaseinhouseholdincomeoverthe sameperiod.The cautious consumer: In spite of that optimistic outlook, discretionary spending is not a top priority for everyone. For those enjoying a 10% increase in household income, 61% would save, 40% invest

49、and 32% go on aholiday.Upgradingisnotapriority:Amere21%ofrespondentscitethepurchaseofhigher-quality products, clothing, and household items as a top three priority. This suggests corporates are not likely to experience a significant consumer upgrade as household incomerises.Some concerns about risin

50、g cost of living: Approximately 58% of respondents were concerned about the cost ofliving.Job security and personal debt not widespread worry: Only about 34% and 32% of respondents highlighted these as issues,respectively.Rising cost of living, cutting expenses: About 50% of respondents indicate tha

51、t they typically spend between 26% and 75% of their income on food products. If they faced by a significant increase in the cost of living, most would cut spending on eating out and holidays. On the other hand, spending on the following items would remain resilient: telephone/internet top-ups, oral

52、care, hair care, and skincare.Saving for a rainy day: Most respondents reported saving at least 5% of their income. About 31% admitted to having little or nosavings.Location, location, location: People in Jakarta enjoy a higher level of GDP per capita and above average GDP growth compared with elsew

53、here. About 66% of those in Jakarta versus 56% elsewhere reported an increase in household income of at least 10% in the last 12months.The entrepreneurial Indonesian: Most respondents medium-term goals include starting a new business (60%), going on holiday, mostly to a domestic location (55%), buyi

54、ng a house (47%) and buying a new car(45%).is a to in a or a Specific takeaways on consumption categoriesWhat we found regarding specific business segments:In instant noodles, a highly-concentrated business segment (the HHI measure of concentration is 5,100, where 0 is perfect competition and 10,000

55、 is a monopoly), Indomies brand equity is solid, but Indofood CBPs smaller brands (such as Sarimi, Supermie, and Popmie) are not generally favoured. Given the risk of brand switching with smaller brands, ICBP risks limited future growth, and this issue will be particularly acute given the slow growt

56、h of the instant noodles product segment. Noodles contribute approximately 54% of ICBPs 2018e revenue and 79% of 2018e segmental operatingprofit.In ice cream, also a highly-concentrated business segment (HHI = 4,773), UNVRs Walls and Cornetto are ahead of their peers on NPS. Ice cream contributes ap

57、proximately 8% of UNVRs 2018 revenue.In oral care, (HHI = 2,818), UNVRs Pepsodents brand equity is solid and ranks significantly ahead of its peers on NPS. Oral care contributes approximately 5% of UNVRs 2018revenue.In hair care, which is one of the fastest growing product categories with a moderate

58、 level of competition (HHI = 1,856), UNVR controls approximately 32% of the market across three brands (Sunsilk, Clear, Lifebuoy). However, these individual brands are not the most favoured among Indonesian consumers. Hair care contributes approximately 8% of UNVRs 2018revenue.In skin care, which is

59、 a competitive business segment (HHI = 1,160), Unilever Indonesias Ponds is facing tough competition from Wardah. In spite of being relatively new, Wardah scored better on NPS than Ponds in our survey. While UNVR may still continue to grow over the short run, given that the skin care market remains

60、one of the fastest growing business segments in Indonesia, UNVR needs to address Ponds falling popularity soon. Skin care contributes approximately 10% of UNVRs 2018revenue.Our coverage of Indonesian consumer stocksWe make no changes to our estimates, target price or ratings for the following compan