中国饭店市场城市景气分析报告

1、2009年度中国饭店市场城市景气分析报告2009 China Hotel Market Outlook 2010中国饭店市场城市景气分析报告2010China Hotel Market Outlook Page 28 of 0PAGE 20 Page 28 of 0PAGE 212010中国饭店市场城市景气分析报告2010China Hotel Market Outlook（2009年度）1 INTRODUCTION 引言Recognized as one of the largest emerging economies in the world, China has demonstrate

2、d exceptional growth and growth prospects. Along with this expanding economy, Chinas hotel industry is experiencing unprecedented growth in both demand and supply, which is having a profound impact on many markets and hotel investments. Increasing competitive market pressure andthe recent global fin

3、ancial turmoil have caused many existing and potential hotel owners and investors to be more sensitive to the balance of demand, supply and the resulting financial impact. Hotel operators,trade associations, industry observers and regulatorsare increasingly concerned about market growth and competit

4、ion and are closely monitoring market performance.中国目前已经跻身于全球最大的经济体行列，并展示了出色的发展速度和前景。随着经济的发展，中国酒店行业的供应和需求也在以前所未有的速度增长，这对诸多市场和酒店的投资都形成了深远的影响。鉴于市场竞争日益激烈，加上近期全球金融危机，许多现有和潜在的酒店业主和投资商都更为关注供需平衡及其财务影响。酒店管理公司、协会联盟、行业研究和监管机构都开始对市场的发展和竞争持有顾虑，并密切关注市场表现。Against this backdrop, China Tourism Hotel Association , t

5、ogether with Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, conducted a survey of hotel performance across China in the fourth quarter of 2009. This data was combined with an analysis of macro-demand data and Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels in-house supply databaseto develop an analytical framework for assessing prospective

6、demand and supply dynamics in 25 urban hotel markets over the next three years. 在此背景之下，中国旅游饭店业协会与仲量联行酒店集团，于2009年第四季度对国内各地的酒店业绩表现进行了问卷调查。我们以调查所得宏观需求数据和仲量联行酒店集团内部的酒店供应数据库为分析框架，评估了25个城市酒店市场在未来三年的供应和需求形势。2 CHINA HOTEL MARKET REVIEW中国酒店市场回顾Hotel Performance酒店业绩The survey collected hotel performance data

7、for the recent three years as available at October 2009, including estimates for the full year of 2009.调查数据包括截至2009年10月的最近三年酒店业绩表现和对2009年全年的业绩预测。A total of 112 hotels responded, representing 31,943 guest rooms. Amongst those responded, 38.4% were located in NorthernChina, 27.7% in Eastern China, 12.

8、5% in Southern and Western China respectively and the remainder in thecentral part of the country. 26.8% of the properties were rated five-star, 42.0% four-star, 20.5% three-star and 10.7% were two-star, budget or non-rated properties. In terms of operating model, the majority of hotels (67.0%) were

9、 owner-managed, 22.3% were operated under a management agreement and 7.1% were operated under a franchise agreement. 55.4% of the properties were state-owned, 18.8% privately-owned and 25.9% of the properties did not indicate the nature of ownership.本次问卷调查共得到112家酒店的回复，共计31,943间客房。参与调查的酒店中，38.4%位于华北地

10、区，27.7%位于华东地区，12.5%位于华南和西部地区，其余酒店位于华中地区。其中，26.8%为五星级酒店，42.0%为四星级，20.5%为三星级，其余10.7%则为二星级、经济型或未评星级的酒店。从经营模式来看，大多数酒店均由业主自行经营（67.0%），有22.3%的酒店为委托管理，其余7.1%的酒店为特许经营。从所有权性质来看，55.4%的酒店为国有性质，18.8%为私营企业，还有25.9%的酒店未明确答复所有权性质问题。Based on the results of the survey, hotel performance saw a visible decline across t

11、he country between 2007 and October year-to-date 2009.问卷调查的结果显示，从2007年到2009年10月底，全国各地酒店的业绩都明显下滑：Hotel Performance 酒店业绩Hotel Performance 酒店业绩* 于2009年10月作出的全年预测* 于2009年10月作出的全年预测来源：仲量联行酒店集团，中国旅游饭店协会Hotel occupancies in the sample saw a continuous decline from 67.5% in 2007 to 60.1% by October 2009.从20

12、07年到2009年10月底，调查样本酒店的入住率从67.5%逐步下滑至60.1%。The Olympic Games had a generally positive impact on hotel room rates in 2008,whichwas particularly obvious for hotels in Beijing. Reflecting the strong representation of Beijing properties in the sample, the sets average daily rates experienced a 9.3% spike

13、in 2008 over 2007, but dropped by 21.6% in 2009 (October YTD) over the preceding year.2008年，奥运会对酒店的房价有普遍的积极推动作用，其中北京酒店市场特别明显。由于北京的酒店在调查样本中所占比重较大，因此2008年样本酒店的日平均房价比2007年上涨了9.3%，而2009年截至10月底则同比下降了21.6%。RevPAR decreased by anaverage of 12.6% per annum between 2007 and 2009 (Oct YTD).从2007年到2009年10月底，每间

14、可出租客房收入年均下降了12.6%。Reasons for Decline 业绩下滑的原因Amongst the above data, most striking is the continuous decline in occupancy over the recent years that stand in stark contrast to the resilient economic growth of China over the same period. In fact, such occupancy decline has been caused by a variety of

15、 factors that has tipped the balance of demandand supply of lodging facilities and hotel financial performance across the country has been seriously impacted.从上述数据中可以看到，近年来酒店的入住率持续下滑，与同期中国强劲的经济发展形成了鲜明的反差。事实上，入住率之所以下滑是因为有诸多因素触动了酒店业的供需平衡，引致全国各地的酒店业绩表现都受到了严重影响。Anecdotal evidence suggests that the follo

16、wing reasons caused hotel performance to decline: 相信下述因素导致了酒店业绩的下滑：Global economic downturn: Hospitality markets derive part of their demand from foreign sources and are inherently exposed to changes in the global economic climate.In response to revenue uncertainty of corporations across the globe,

17、cost cutting measures have resulted in curtailed travel budgets. As frequency of travel and room rate budgets have been reduced, hotels saw declines in both occupancy and room rates. In particular, the MICE market was affected by budgetary pressures, since corporate spending on meetings, conferences

18、 and exhibitions is largely deemed discretionary.全球经济趋弱：部分酒店业的需求来自国外客源，因此受到全球经济的影响。鉴于全球各大企业收益的不确定性，他们纷纷缩减差旅预算以节约开支。因此，出差的次数和住宿预算双双下落，酒店的入住率和房价也相应走低。其中，由于企业在会议展览和奖励旅游（MICE）方面的开支通常都是酌情考虑而定的, MICE市场受预算压力的影响尤为明显。Unforeseen events: Between 2007 and 2009, many unforeseen events affected the travel industr

19、y in China. An unusually harsh winter in 2008left Chinas south-eastern and southern regions in snow and ice, paralyzing travel to and from these parts of the country. Wenchuansearthquake in May 2008 not only destroyed travel and tourism infrastructure, but closed off one of the most common travel ro

20、utes to Tibet. More importantly, the financial burdens of post-quake reconstruction efforts imposed constraints on government spending such as government travel budgets. Finally, unrest that took place in Xinjiang and Tibet affected demand for travel to these two tourism markets and some of the citi

21、essituated en-route, for instance Xian and Chengdu.不可预见事件：在2007到2009年间，国内旅游业经历了许多不可预见的事件。2008年冬天，中国西南和华南大部分地区都经历了罕见的灾害性冰雪天气，来往这一地区的交通基本瘫痪。2008年5月的汶川地震不仅损毁了当地的旅游和基础设施，也阻断了前往西藏的主要旅游线路。更为重要的是，震后重建的财政压力限制了政府差旅和其他开支。另外，发生于2008年西藏拉萨的“3.14”打砸抢烧事件和2009年新疆的“7.5”事件也影响了两地的旅游市场，以及该旅游线路上的城市，如西安和成都。In addition to

22、 factors affecting lodging demand, new hotel supply has increased pressure on hotel markets across the country:除了上述影响住宿需求的因素之外，新酒店供应量对国内各地市场带来的压力也与日俱增：General supply growth: Many markets across China have seen increases in lodging supply in recent years. Internationally branded lodging supply in Chi

23、nas 25 key urban travel markets Please refer to the list of selected 25 cities in a later section of the report. 25个城市的清单可以参考本报告后续部分。 increased from 59,000 rooms in 2005 to 126,000 rooms in 2009, representing an average supply growth of 20.9% per annum. Increased supply has driven up competitive pre

24、ssure amongst properties, resulting in decreases in occupancy rates and causing hotels to employ rate discount tactics to attract business from competitors Please refer to the list of selected 25 cities in a later section of the report. 25个城市的清单可以参考本报告后续部分。总体供应增长：近几年来，国内许多市场的酒店供应都有明显增长。在2005年，国内25个主

25、要城市的国际品牌酒店供应量为59,000间客房，而到2009年，这一数值已增至126,000间客房，年均复合增长速度高达20.9%。供应的增加激化了酒店间的竞争，造成入住率下滑而使很多酒店不得不采取降价措施以竞争客源。High-pro: The 2008 Beijing Olympiad, the 2010 Shanghai Expo and the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhoucaused a concentration of hotel openings in the year of or prior to the event. This crowding o

26、f openings was caused by developers ambitions to cash in on expected businessduring the event, or anticipated growth of the respective markets after these events.重大活动：2008年北京奥运会、2010年上海世博会和2010年广州亚运会都在活动前夕或者当年见证了密集频繁的酒店开业。众多酒店集中开业的原因在于投资商期冀在活动期间得到可观的收益，或者这些市场在举办活动之后的发展前景看好。However, not all of the ab

27、ove factors have the same impact, and a clear distinction should be made between the severity, geographical extent and duration of impact of these factors.然而，上述因素影响的严重程度、地理范围和持续时间则大相径庭。Impact on China Hotel IndustrySeverityGeographical extentDurationDemand factorsGlobalEconomic CrisisHighNationwide,

28、particularly east-coastMedium-TermWinter 2008LowRegionalShort-TermWenchuan EarthquakeMediumRegionalMedium-TermPolitical instabilityHighRegionalShort-TermVisa restrictionsMediumRegionalShort-TermSupply factorsNew supplyHighNationwideLong-term对中国酒店业的影响严重程度地理范围持续时间需求因素全球金融危机高全国范围，尤其是东部沿海城市中期2008年寒冬中区域性

29、短期汶川地震中区域性中期突发事件高区域性短期供应因素新增供应高全国范围长期Whilst the above demand-side factors had a more contained impact on hotel performance, new supply entering the market is fundamentally changing the market over a more extended time frame.上述与需求有关的因素对酒店业绩的影响相对较为可控，而不断入市的新增供应则根本性地改变了中国酒店市场的供需平衡状态。Hotel Supply 酒店供给影响

30、Despite the above demand-related factors that have had more short-term or regional impacts, Chinas overall tourism market has been growing. The chart below summarizes some key indicators of such growth trend:虽然上述需求因素带来了短期或区域性的影响，但是中国总体的旅游市场依然表现出了增长势头。下表总结了增长趋势的主要指标：来源：国家旅游局However, when compared to

31、the results of the hotel performance survey, hotels in the corresponding regions experienced negative occupancy growth between 2007 and 2009, suggesting that other factors, such as the decrease of length of stay in some markets, besides tourism and economic growth, are impacting hotel occupancies. 然

32、而，参照酒店业绩的调查结果可以发现，这些区域对应的酒店市场在2007到2009年间的入住率都经历了负增长。这表明，除了经济和旅游发展之外还有其他因素，如某些市场游客停留时间的减少对酒店的入住率产生了影响。来源：仲量联行酒店集团、中国旅游饭店协会按生产总值排名按生产总值排名Between 2005 and 2009, the countrys star-rated hotels increased from 11,828 to 14,639，up by 5.5% on average per annum. Over the same period, internationally branded

33、 hotel supply increased from 59,041 rooms to 126,100 rooms, indicating a 20.9% compounded annual growth. 从2005年到2009年，全国星级饭店的数量从11,828家增加到了14,639家（全国旅游星级饭店评定委员会办公室），年均增速为5.5%。同期，国际品牌的酒店供应量从59,041 间客房增加至126,100间客房，年均复合增长率达20.9%。Some additional facts to consider:此外，还有一些补充信息：Supply growth of internatio

34、nally branded hotels has significantly outpaced growth in international tourism arrivals, indicating that these properties are compelled to target and capture the domestic travelers. 国际品牌的酒店供应增长速度远远超过国际旅游人次的增速，表明这些酒店将不得不尽量赢取国内游客。As at the end of 2009, the listed 25 cities counted a total existing st

35、ock of 126,100 internationally-branded guest rooms. Based on the most recent estimates by Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, internationally branded guest rooms supply in these cities will increase to 207,000 by 2012, corresponding to an average annual increase of 18.0%.截至2009年底，25个被选城市已有的国际品牌酒店供应量共计达到126,1

36、00间客房。根据仲量联行酒店集团的最新预测，这些城市国际品牌酒店的客房供应量将在2012年底前增加到207,000间，年均增长速度达18.0%。3 HOTEL DEMAND FACTORS酒店需求驱动因素In order to ascertain future impact of growing lodging supply on the market, Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels has conducted an analysis of some key hotel demand indicators that are relevant for urban hotel

37、 markets. These indicators encompass economic growth, foreign direct investment, traffic infrastructure, commercial real estate development and MICE demand.为确定不断增长的酒店供给未来对市场的影响，仲量联行酒店集团分析了若干与城市酒店市场相关的关键的酒店需求指标。这些指标包括经济增长、外国直接投资、交通基础设施、商业房地产开发和会议、会展、奖励旅游需求。Economic Evolution Transforming Hotel Market

38、s经济发展改变酒店市场Chinas rapid economic growth since the beginning of the economic reform has driven the development of the larger China market, not only as the workshop for global exports, but also with increasing importance as one of the worlds most promising consumer markets. Between 1980 and 2009, Chin

39、as Gross Domestic Product increased 72.4 times (compound annual average change (CAAC) of 16.0%), while over the same period, mature markets, such as United States, experienced a GDP growth of only 5.1 times (CAAC: 5.8%). This rapid development of the Chinese economy has engendered growth of Chinas t

40、ourism market in both the leisure and corporate segments.自改革开放以来，中国快速的经济增长带动了更大的中国市场的发展，使中国不只是世界出口工厂，更是日益重要的世界最具增长潜力的消费市场之一。1980年和2009年间，中国国内生产总值（GDP）增长了72.4倍（复合年度增长率为16.0%）。而同期，成熟的市场，如美国的GDP仅增长了5.1倍（复合年度增长率为5.8%）。中国经济的快速增长带来了中国旅游市场，包括休闲旅游和商务旅游市场的增长。Economic output and leisure travel activity经济产出与休闲

41、旅游活动Growth in Chinas disposable income and its emerging middle class has been the largest driver of domestic travel. Over the most recent ten years between 1999 and 2009, Chinas per capita average disposable income increased from RMB 5,854 to RMB 17,175, marking an 11.4% average annual growth. Over

42、the same period, domestic tourism arrivals grew at an average of 10.2% annually with spending up 3.1% on average per year, only marginally higher than inflationary trends over this period. This resulted in growth in nationwide domestic tourism receipts in the order of 13.7% annually. As of now, this

43、 growth has been more volume than spending driven. 中国可支配收入的增长及中产阶层的出现成为国内旅游最大的驱动力。1999年至2009年的过去十年间，中国人均可支配收入从人民币 5,854元增长至 17,175元，年均增长率达11.4%。同期，国内旅游者人数年均增长率为10.2%，人均旅游花费年均增长3.1%，仅略高于这一时期的通货膨胀率。这使得全国国内旅游收入每年增长约13.7%。到目前为止，国内旅游收入的增长更多的是得益于旅游者人数的增长而不是人均花费的增长。Economic output and corporate travel acti

44、vity经济产出与商务旅游活动As an indicator of output, i.e. business activities, GDP growth generally correlates with hotel demand in the corporate sector in urban markets. The tableoverleafsummarizes the GDP and growth between 2005 and 2009 for the 25 urban tourism markets. 作为经济产量的指标，即商务活动，GDP增长一般与城市的商务酒店需求相关。下

45、页表格总结了2005年至2009年间25个旅游市场的GDP和GDP增长水平。区域生产总值2009年区域生产总值复合增长2005年至2009年来源：城市统计局All of the above 25 urban hotel markets have achieved double-digit economic growth over the four years between 2005 and 2009, with Changchun, Xian, Chongqing, Shenyang, and Dalian leading the pack.以上25个城市酒店市场在2005年至2009年的四

46、年间均实现了两位数的经济增长，长春、西安、重庆、沈阳和大连增长率位居前列。Chinas efforts to promote the structural change of its urban economies are likely to be a key growth driver of corporate travel demand moving forward. The growth of the countrys tertiary sector next to a relatively established secondary sector has potential to br

47、ing along greater volumes of business travel, as some industries, such as professional and financials services, typically have a greater need for travel and enjoy higher travel allowances than the manufacturing sector.中国加强城市经济结构改革的努力似乎是商务旅游需求增长的主要驱动力。与相对成熟的第二产业相比，中国第三产业的增长具备带来更多商务旅游的潜力。一些产业，如专业服务和财务

48、服务，一般能够产生更多的差旅需求，并比制造业享有更高的差旅补助。Page 28 of PAGE 66 Page 28 of PAGE 652009年城市产业结构来源：城市统计局2005-2009第三产业复合增长率来源：城市统计局Reflective of their advanced stage of development, all of the tier one cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have a relatively large and developed tertiary sector. Amongst ti

49、er two cities, Xian, Nanjing, Jinan and Xiamen, Wuhan and Chengdu have the biggest proportion of tertiary sectors.所有一线城市，北京、上海、广州和深圳的第三产业总量都相对较大且更先进，反映了这些城市在发展中所处的较领先阶段。二线城市中，西安、南京、济南、厦门、武汉和成都的第三产业所占比重较大。Over the last four years, Xian, Suzhou, Tianjin and Wuhan, recorded particularly rapid growth in

50、 the tertiary sector, suggesting further growth in lodging demand.过去四年内，西安、苏州、天津和武汉第三产业发展尤其迅速，表明了住宿需求的进一步增长。Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)外国直接投资Inbound travel has seen rapid growth alongside the opening-up of Chinas economy and the surge offoreign investment activities in tier one and two cities. D

51、espite the growing importance of the domestic market, international corporate travelers remain an important source of demand for high-end properties.随着中国经济的对外开放和一线及二线城市外国投资活动的猛增，海外入境旅游快速发展。尽管国内市场的重要性日益提高，国际商务旅游者仍是高端产品的重要需求来源。Whilst foreign investors initially regarded China an attractive location fo

52、r export-oriented manufacturing activities, they soon realized that the rapidly emerging Chinese domestic market offered more opportunities. Nationwide, FDI had grown 7.1% over the past ten years between 1999 and 2009, reaching a total of RMB 90 billion in 2009. However, most recently, through a num

53、ber of policy initiatives such as the 2007 Catalogue Guiding Foreign Investment in Industry, the new Enterprise Income Tax Law and the new Labour Contract, foreign investment was strated to be redirected towards high-technologies, research and development, regional headquarters and the service secto

54、r. Over the recent two years, Beijing and Shanghai have announced investment incentives emulating each others efforts to become the location of choice for multinational companies headquarters. At the same time, tiertwo cities such as Changsha, Chengdu, HefeiTianjin, Wuhan and Xian offer talent pools

55、 from leading higher-education institutions at attractive labour costs and therefore have increasingly become the focus of foreign investment. 尽管外国投资者最初视中国为有吸引力的出口导向的制造工场，但他们很快意识到中国国内市场的快速兴起提供了更多的机会。1999年至2009年的过去十年间，全国的FDI增长了7.1%，于2009年达到总额人民币900亿元。但是，通过外商投资产业指导目录(2007年修订)、新的企业所得税法和新的劳动合同等一系列政策措施，国

56、家有关部门最近开始将外商投资活动引导向高科技、研发、区域总部和服务业。最近两年内，北京和上海都公布了投资促进政策，互相仿效以成为跨国公司总部所在地。同时，二线城市如长沙、成都、合肥、天津、武汉和西安则以有吸引力的人力成本从全国前列的高校中吸引大量人才，从而日益成为外国投资关注的焦点。For cities that are able to attract foreign investments and perform the transition from secondary into tertiary sectors, FDI can be a good indicator for growt

57、h opportunities in hotel demand, especially in less rate-sensitive business segments.对于能够吸引外国投资，并从第二产业转化至第三产业的城市，FDI成为酒店需求，尤其是价格敏感度较低的商务需求增长潜力的良好指标。Traffic Infrastructure Increasing Mobility 交通基础设施 增长的流动性Infrastructure provides an important means to carry and facilitate travel and tourism activities

58、. Improved access in roads, rail, airports, ports, for instance, generally promotes economic activities and mobility, which in turn generates travel and hotel demand. However, in some cities, the improvement of infrastructure does change the source of demand, which in turn decreases the hotel demand

59、 in short term. 基础设施为差旅和旅游活动的便捷进行提供了重要途径。例如道路、铁路、机场、港口可及性的改善，均能增强经济的活跃度及流动性，从而创造旅游及酒店需求。但在某些市场，交通便利性减少了游客的停留时间，使得这些市场的酒店需求在短期内有所减少。At the end of 2009, China counted 65,000 kilometers of expressways, 85,500 kilometers of railroad tracks and a total of 165 airports. Private car ownership reached 26 mi

60、llion and airports and railroads together transported an aggregate of 2 billion passengers. 截至2009年底，中国共有高速公路65,000公里、铁路85,500公里以及165个机场。私人车辆保有量增长至2600万辆。机场、公路旅客吞吐量之和达20亿人次。Capacity in 20092009年总量Construction in 20092009年新建Capacity by 20202020年总量Expressways 高速公路65,000 公里4,300 公里85,000 公里Railroads 铁路