全球REITs策略分析

1、Global EquityResearch28 October2019Global REITsJason SteedAC(61-2)9003-8609 HYPERLINK mailto:jason.h.steed jason.h.steedJ.P. Morgan Securities Australia LimitedMichael W. Mueller, CFA AC(1-212) 622-6689 HYPERLINK mailto:michael.w.mueller michael.w.muellerJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCAnthony Paolone, CF

2、A AC(1-212) 622-6682 HYPERLINK mailto:anthony.paolone anthony.paoloneJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCRichard Jones, CFA AC(61-3) 9633-4038 HYPERLINK mailto:richard.b.jones richard.b.jonesJ.P. Morgan Securities Australia LimitedBen Brayshaw AC(61-2) 9003-8659 HYPERLINK mailto:benjamin.j.brayshaw benjamin.j

3、.brayshawJ.P. Morgan Securities Australia LimitedAdrian E Huerta AC*(52-81) 8152-8720 HYPERLINK mailto:adrian.huerta adrian.huertaJ.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. deC.V.,J.P. Morgan Grupo FinancieroMarcelo Motta(55-11)4950-6712 HYPERLINK mailto:marcelo.g.motta marcelo.g.mottaBanco J.P. MorganS.A.Tim

4、Leckie, (44-20) 7134-4477 HYPERLINK mailto:timothy.leckie timothy.leckieJ.P. Morgan Securities plcNeil Green, CFA AC(44-20) 7134-4478 HYPERLINK mailto:neil.d.green neil.d.greenJ.P. Morgan Securities plcCusson Leung, CFA AC(852) 2800-8526 HYPERLINK mailto:cusson.leung cusson.leungJ.P. Morgan Securiti

5、es (Asia Pacific) LimitedRyan Li, CFA AC(852) 2800-8529 HYPERLINK mailto:ryan.lh.li ryan.lh.liJ.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) LimitedMervin Song, CFA AC(65) 6882-7829 HYPERLINK mailto:mervin.song mervin.songJ.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedTerence M Khi AC(65) 6882-1518 HYPERLIN

6、K mailto:terence.ml.khi terence.ml.khiJ.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedRyota Himeno AC813-6736-8639 HYPERLINK mailto:ryota.himeno ryota.himenoJPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.* Registered/qualified as a research analyst under NYSE/FINRA rules.See the end pages of this presentation f

7、or analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of

8、 this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Marcelo MottaSao PauloLATAMAdrian HuertaSao PaoloAnthony Paolone, CFANew YorkMichael W. Mueller, CFANew YorkNANeil GreenLondonTim Leckie, CFALondonEMEARichard JonesAustraliaCusson Leung, C

9、FAHong KongBenjamin BrayshawAustraliaAPACTerence M Khi SingaporeRyan Li China/HKRyota Himeno JapanMervin Song SingaporeJ.P. Morgan Global Real Estate TeamMarcelo MottaSao PauloLATAMAdrian HuertaSao PaoloAnthony Paolone, CFANew YorkMichael W. Mueller, CFANew YorkNANeil GreenLondonTim Leckie, CFALondo

10、nEMEARichard JonesAustraliaCusson Leung, CFAHong KongBenjamin BrayshawAustraliaAPACTerence M Khi SingaporeRyan Li China/HKRyota Himeno JapanMervin Song SingaporeSector OverviewJason Steed AC(612) 900 8609, HYPERLINK mailto:jason.h.steed jason.h.steedJ.P. Morgan Securities Australia LimitedMovement (

11、in bps) - 10YYields YTD Movement inYieldsGlobal:Yields have tensions and central bankdovishnessSharp er 10Y from 18seen the largest decline as prices cuts andOutlookforecasts one further cut 2019, flatthereafterexpects 10-year yields to drop year-endforecasting one further rate cut Sector Implicatio

12、nsPositive:cuts a clear positive for bond proxies such as the Perform ance one of the best performersRegionsAUandareperformance,up26% and18%intheYTD0bps-20bps-40bps-60bps-80bps-100bps-120bpsJPY 10YKR 10YCAN 10YGM 10YUK 10YUS 10YNZ 10YAU 10Y-140bpsJPY 10YKR 10YCAN 10YGM 10YUK 10YUS 10YNZ 10YAU 10YMSC

13、I AW Performance Regional Performance 30%20% 19% 18%17% 16% 15%21%19%16%13%11%30%20% 19% 18%17% 16% 15%21%19%16%13%11%9%8%5%ITREITSDiscInduUtesStaplesFinsHcareMatsEnergyValue-ITREITSDiscInduUtesStaplesFinsHcareMatsEnergyValue29%22%20%19%18%14%14%13%12%7%6%WorldAU APACEM29%22%20%19%18%14%14%13%12%7%6

14、%DMMSCI EMSource: Bloomberg.North AmericaU.S. Have A Good Macro SetupAnd Levers forGrowthHave a Heavy toward Alternative PropertyStock Ideas for StrategiesU.S. REITs Have A Good Macro SetupAnd Levers for Growth REIT GroupSnapshotTodays setup is similar to what REITs faced heading in2019 REIT GroupSn

15、apshotThe2020S&P 500EPS growthexpectationsitsat11%vs.4%FFOGrowthforREITsthesame setup as this time lastyearREITs have benefited from declining U.S equity earnings growth and lower interestratesInvestors continue to search for yield which benefitsREITsTariffresolution/returntorisk-onis thebiggestrisk

16、we seeforREITstocksU.S. CRE fundamentals are okay butmoderatingOccupancies are full and rent growth is positive, albeit slowing to2%Robust job growth has been the key behind demand, but this is now notcheddownSupply growth is moderating, but not as much as we thought itwouldLeading to REIT Core NOI

17、growth that should be in the low/mid-2%rangeWeforecastsamestoreNOIgrowthtobe2.6%in2019 and2.4%in 2020,down 20bpsy/yLow capital costs provide REITs an external growthleverStockpricesthatareaboveNAV, lower borrowingcosts,andamoderateprivatemarketall pointto REITs having the ability to make accretive i

18、nvestments to drivegrowthBottom-line FFO growth should be 4%in2020.a slight YOYimprovementValuationsarehistoricallyhighon absolutemetrics,morereasonableon relativeonesREITs currently trade at 21x 2020E FFO vs. 18x for S&P 500 EPSearningsFCF yields currently sit at 4.0% vs 5.0% for the S&P500Dividend

19、 yields continuetoremainattractive,inourview, sittingat3.4%comparedto1.9%S&P500 dividend yield and 1.8% 10-Year TreasuryYieldREITs trade at a 12% premium to NAV, higher than the 5% historicalaverageTotalReturnsYTD 2019 REIT29.4%YTD 2019 S&P 50021.9%2018 REIT(4.5%)2018 S&P 500(4.4%)REIT DividendsCurr

20、ent Dividend Yield3.4%Payout on 2019E AFFO75.1%Net Asset ValuePremium/Discount to NAV12.0%Implied Cap Rate5.1%Earnings Multiples2019E FFO Multiple22.9x2019E AFFO Multiple25.4x2020E FFO Multiple21.4x2020E AFFO Multiple23.6xEarnings Growth ex. tech REITsEarnings Growth ex. tech REITs2019EFFOgrowth3.5%

21、 2.9%2019E AFFO growth 2020E FFO growth 2020E AFFO growth4.3%2019E AFFO growth 2020E FFO growth 2020E AFFO growth5.9%Source: Bloomberg, SNL and J.P. Morgan as of10/21/19Have a Heavy Tilt toward Alternative Property Types Property type calls (and any +/- changes in Property type calls (and any +/- ch

22、anges inbias)OverweightHealth CareTriple Net LeaseTech REITs*CRE BrokersIndustrial (-)Residential (-)NeutralUnderweightStrip CentersOfficeSelf-StorageRegional MallsResidential BrokersLodging REITs*Data Centers Choe; Towers Cusick; Lodging GreffResidential: We continue to see above-average core and b

23、ottom-line growth for residential rental REITs as supply/demand is steady and expense growth has been well-contained. That said, our bullish stock call here is now more relative and less absolute than it was going into year.Incrementalrisksincludealessfavorableregulatorybackdrop(rentcontrol,GSErefor

24、m),highervaluations,andpotentiallyhigherturnover if the for-sale housing marketimproves.Industrial: Despite the tariff noise, occupancies continue to be high and strong rent spreads should help to drive above average SS NOI growth againin2020albeitwith somemoderation.Valuations havemovedevenhigher,t

25、hough,duetothestrong2019stockperformance.Net Lease: Dividend yields remain above-average and attractive given the rate environment that has unfolded. Capital costs have continued fall while investment pipelines are strong. This should allow for external growth to drive earnings growth that should st

26、ack up close to the overall REIT group a compelling point for a “defensive” property type. Tenant credit issues have beenminimal.Health Care: Managements are clearly taking advantage of attractive capital costs by stepping-up capital deployment into acquisitions development. Mid-4s dividend yields a

27、lso provide and extra +100 bps of yield relative to the REITaverage.Retail: Even with strips handily outperforming mall stocks in 2019, we continue to prefer what we see as the relative stability of the strips. Mall sentiment continues to be poor over closure concerns (such as Forever 21), and perce

28、ived NAV discounts have not provided a floor for the stocks.Office: We remain bearish on office REITs thematically. Current trends are generally fine, but it is late cycle and any economic moderation could slow up demand while supply is still on the cyclical high side. In addition, we see the contin

29、ued trend of occupiers seeking flex environments(akacoworking)asaheadwind. Needtobeinthepathoftech,lifescience,andcorporaterelocationdemand.Top Ideas in our CoverageStock Ideas for Various StrategiesTop Ideas in our CoverageOfficeRegional MallOfficeRegional MallStrip CenterHealth CareIndustrialResid

30、entialNet LeaseNon-REITKRCSPGFRTWELLPLDUDRSRCJLLBXPAMHVERKWOther Approaches to Stock Selection That Come Up in Conversations with Investors*Cheap on a Real Estate Basis Names trading at high discountsBDN, WRI, MAC, PDM, SLG, TCO, VNO, RPTEvent-Driven Activist situations, potential M&A, spins and res

31、tructuring/corporateactionsCLI, RESI,LPTAcquisition-Driven Upside External growth could be stronger than the marketexpectsAMH, ARE, COLD, EPR, MPW, O, REXR, SAFE, SRC, WELL,WPCOut of Favor/Unloved Stocks Small improvement in sentiment could have big stockimpactBDN, CBL, SLG, VNO, PEI, MAC, TCO, JLLS

32、ustainable, High Dividend Stocks Above average yields and covered, in ouropinionBDN, BRX, EPR, KIM, MPW, SPG, SRC, VER, VTR,WPCStocks to Buy in a Recession Resiliency in a recessionaryenvironmentACC, AMH, COLD, HR, INVH, SAFE, SRC, VER,WPC*The tickers listed here are not necessarily our top stock re

33、commendations but are merely ideas that are consistent with the various themes often driven by investor questionsUK & EuropeKey Themes:EuropeThe listed EU real estate sector can benefit from loweryieldsPreferred plays in listed European realestateKey Themes: EuropeHow low can we go: The German10-yr

34、is below Japans and is expected to remain so till Sep-20 (at least). This has resulted in debt issuances at low yields, allowing for refinancing to support earnings.Recession: The probability of recession over the coming 12 months hasincreasedThe German 10-year yield is less than that of JapanGerman

35、 10-year yieldJapan 10-year yield0.7%German 10-year yieldJapan 10-year yield0.5%0.3%0.1%-0.2%-0.4%-0.6%-0.8%Sep-16Mar-17Sep-17Mar-18Sep-18Mar-19Sep-19Source: BloombergWgt. avg. coupon vs. wgt. avg. maturity of debt issues (under coverage)in the UK, Germany and France during 2019. Only Spain has buck

36、ed this trend,a lower probability and robust economic growth expected for 2019 and2020.Brexit uncertainty remainsand although the probability of a no-dealhas decreased, the UK sector hasbounced15.2yrs1612.3 yrs10.8 yrs6.3 yrs7.1 yrs0.6%0.9%1.0%1.2%1.5%1.4%1.5%2.3%3.0%1212.3 yrs10.8 yrs6.3 yrs7.1 yrs

37、0.6%0.9%1.0%1.2%1.5%1.4%1.5%2.3%3.0%84Jan19Feb19Mar19Apr19May19Jun19Jul19Aug19Sep 19and we see little support for furtherbroad sector upside fromhere.Retail property headwinds continue with negative news-flow continuing and retailers seeking rent cuts. We see arisk of deterioration accelerating in 4

38、Q-19 should the economic outlook continue to worsenSource: J.P. Morgan, Compiled debt since Jan includes EUR, CHF, NOK, SEK issues. Excludes GBP, JPY, USD, HKD40%35%30%25%20%15%10%Jan 1940%35%30%25%20%15%10%Jan 19Mar 19May 19Jul 19Sep 19Germany Spain France UKSource: BloombergThe listed EU real esta

39、te sector can benefit from lower yieldsCompany average cost of debt and issues through June, July, August, and September. Highlighted issues flagged in our July note (FY18 company average).Source: Bloomberg, J.P. MorganKlepierre (11yr: 0.625%), PSP (10yr: 0%) and alstria (6yr: 0.5%) all issued debt

40、in recent months at costs below company averagesCompany average cost of debt and issues through June, July, August, and September. Highlighted issues flagged in our July note (FY18 company average).Source: Bloomberg, J.P. MorganPreferred plays in listed European real estateThe case for Spain grows a

41、s UK, Germany and France see declining economicgrowth expectationsSafe haven stocks in Europe (secure yield plus growth) have declined innumberIn the UK, we like structurally supported SMIDcapsRatingUpsidePremium/(Discount)DividendalstriaOWRatingUpsidePremium/(Discount)DividendalstriaOW10.5%-4.1%3.2

42、%AroundtownN11.3%-14.0%3.7%CastellumOW22.4%-3.7%3.3%CityconN-4.0%-24.8%6.7%CofinimmoUW-24.6%35.7%4.2%ColonialOW5.0%-0.8%2.1%Deutsche EuroShopN5.0%-37.5%5.7%RatingColonialOW5.0%-0.8%2.1%Deutsche EuroShopN5.0%-37.5%5.7%RatingUpside NAV T+1 Premium /T+1 DividendDeutsche WohnenOW10.1%-22.1%2.7%(Discount

43、)YieldEurocommercial PrUW2.1%-31.9%7.7%AssuraOW5.8%26.5%3.9%CovivioN4.3%-4.4%4.7%Big YellowN-4.5%53.4%3.0%GecinaOW4.1%-12.8%3.6%British LandN-3.6%-26.4%5.0%Grand CityN18.8%-15.4%4.0%Capital & CountiesUW-26.1%-14.2%0.6%IcadeN5.0%-10.4%5.7%Intu PropertiesUW-9.8%-71.5%0.0%KlepierreN-1.8%-11.2%6.7%Derwe

44、nt LondonN-3.7%-5.4%2.0%KojamoOW-0.1%12.9%2.2%GraingerOW6.6%-12.0%1.8%Lar EspaaN12.9%-27.6%7.0%Great PortlandN1.9%-9.2%1.6%LEG ImmobilienOW17.1%-8.1%3.7%HammersonN-9.4%-48.7%8.1%MerlinOW13.7%-19.5%3.9%HelicalN4.1%-16.3%2.6%PSP SwissN-11.5%11.7%2.8%LandsecOW5.3%-25.8%4.9%ShurgardN-5.1%12.1%3.2%London

45、MetricN-0.2%26.0%3.7%TLGOW33.3%-18.4%3.9%SEGRON-6.4%16.0%2.4%Unibail-RodamcoN12.8%-27.3%7.7%ShaftesburyN-2.4%-5.2%1.8%VastnedN20.4%-40.7%7.3%St. Modwen Properties Workspace GroupOW OW4.9%-9.2%-0.5%-9.2%1.7%3.6%VGPWereldhaveNUW-3.0%128.1%-8.8%-43.6%3.1%11.5% Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Priced as

46、of 21 October 2019AustraliaA-REIT KeyThemesIdea Vicinity Centres(VCX)EIT Key ThemesSource: J.P. Morgan estimatesSub-sector asset yield spreads to 10 bondOfficeRetailIndustrial5%3%1%-1%20052007200920112013201520172019Source: JLL, Bloomberg & J.P. Morgan estimatesWe forecast +4.4% EPS growth in FY20,

47、vs just +1.1% for the ASXSource: J.P. Morgan estimatesSub-sector asset yield spreads to 10 bondOfficeRetailIndustrial5%3%1%-1%20052007200920112013201520172019Source: JLL, Bloomberg & J.P. Morgan estimates$6bn of equity raised in 2019 ytd A- will remain active, leveraging the cost of capital advantag

48、e non-retail hold over unlistedpeersPrime cap rates (4.5-6%) and IRRs (6-7%) are high by global standards and likely to compress supported by RBA rate cuts. Debtcosts an EPStailwindSector trading broadly in line with our valuations. We are Overweight VCX, LLC, SCP and and Underweight GMG andMGRRetai

49、l asset performance iswideningOffice demand is moderating,vacancy is verylowIndustrial assets in demand,operating metrics aresolidResidential is improving after a soft1HValuation SummaryPE RatioDPS Yield(%)GearingVar to PTA-REITs19.14.6%25.9%4.2%Large Caps19.04.4%24.7%3.6%Small Caps19.35.3%31.4%7.1%

50、Top Idea - Vicinity Centres (VCX)Flagshipassetsperformingexceptionallywell -NOIGrowth,spreads,salesandvaluationsall+3.5%Supportivebackdrop-populationgrowth,ratecuts,taxcuts,improvingresimarketsandlimitedsupplyBalance sheet in great shape 26% geared and 5x net debt /EBITDAActivating non retail uses t

51、o enhance and preservevalueRetail sales growth is improving4Specialty SalesTotal SalesFlagship performing strongly, core is tougher FlagshipCore3210-1Retail sales growth is improving4Specialty SalesTotal SalesFlagship performing strongly, core is tougher FlagshipCore3210-120152016201720182019Source:

52、 Company InformationSource: Company Information, J.P. Morgan estimatesNOI growth4.7%-1.1%1.5%Re-leasing spreads5.0%-8.2%-2.0%Total MAT Growth3.7%1.8%2.7%Spec & Mini major Growth5.7%0.8%3.1%Spec sales / sqm13,8758,60711,083Valuations3.7%-5.6%-1.4%Hong Kong - Opportunities in uncertaintyPolicy Address

53、 a near-term boost to residentialmarketMaintain OW ondevelopersOur top picks within thesectorHong Kong: Policy Address a near-term boost to residential marketChange of mortgage policies for first-time home buyers and on completedunits:90% maximum property value lifted from HK$4mn toHK$8mn;80% maximu

54、m property value lifted from HK$6mn toHK$10mn;Stress tests for mortgage applicants under this scheme areloosenedLikelytoexpandthepoolofdemandwhile supplyisstillrelativelystatic,leadingtohomeprice increaseMortgage payments and stress test income limits before and after revision of mortgage policiesMo

55、rtgage payments and stress test income limits before and after revision of mortgage policiesProperty value (HK$)LTV limitDown paymentLoan amountMonthly paymentStress-test: required monthly income4,000,000Old90%400,0003,600,000($14,459)($37,679)New90%400,0003,600,000($14,459)($37,679)6,000,000Old80%1

56、,200,0004,800,000($19,279)($46,053)New90%600,0005,400,000($21,689)($56,519)8,000,000Old60%3,200,0004,800,000($19,279)($46,053)New90%800,0007,200,000($28,919)($75,359)10,000,000Old50%5,000,0005,000,000($20,083)($47,971)New80%2,000,0008,000,000($32,132)($76,754)Note: Assumptions include 30-year mortga

57、ge term; prevailing mortgage rates of 2.625%; stress tests based on 3% increase in mortgage rates Source: HKMC, HKMA, J.P. Morgan estimatesMaintain OW on developersNewmortgagepolicieswill drive arecoveryofsecondarytransactionvolume,whichwill inturn improvethesentimentoftheresidentialmarketandbenefit

58、developersprimarylaunchesHK home prices vs developersshare pricesSecondary volume vs developers shareprices20019018017016015014013012011010090Jan-14Jul-14Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-1980Jan-14Jul-14Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19200180160140

59、12010080120100806040200Property prices (CCL): Jan 2014=100 Developers share price index: Jan 2014=10012-mth trailing primaryvolumeSource: HKET, Bloomberg, Centaline, Midland Realty, J.P. Morgan estimatesDevelopers share price indexx: Jan 2014=1004-week rolling avg secondary transaction volume (RHS)H

60、K developers discount at historicallowOur top picks within the sectorTop picks:Developers with significantfarmlandLink REITs div yield spread vs sharepriceexposure: NWD (17.HK), Henderson (12.HK)Developers with more defensiveand recurrent businesses: CK Asset REIT with mainly non-discretionarymall e