全球金属展望报告

1、Metals Outlook PresentationGlobal Commodities ResearchNatashaKanevaGregoryShearerExecutiveDirectorVicePresident(1-212)834-3175(44-20)7134-8161 HYPERLINK mailto:natasha.kaneva natasha.kaneva HYPERLINK mailto:gregory.c.shearer gregory.c.shearer JPMorgan ChaseBankNAJ.P. Morgan SecuritiesplcGlobal Commo

2、dities ResearchMarch 2019M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NSee the end pages of this presentation for important disclosures.M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NJ.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors

3、 should be aware that the firm mayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheir investmentdecision.1Image sources: UC Rusal, World Gold Council, Glencore plc, Nornickel. Used with permission.The soft patch in global gro

4、wth looks likely to persist at least through mid-year, but the dovish turns by major central banks and increasingly aggressive policy support from China has fuelled expectations of an improved growth profile. Some signs of stabilization have emerged in recent months, but the data flow remains choppy

5、.J.P. Morgan Real GDP Forecast Revision IndexIndex, 4Jan2002=100; Changes reflect %-point revision to 4- quarter rolling percent change forecastJ.P. Morgan Real GDP Forecast Revision IndexIndex, 4Jan2002=100; Changes reflect %-point revision to 4- quarter rolling percent change forecastJ.P. Morgan E

6、conomic Activity Surprise IndexPercent92.589.789.592.790.189.992.990.393.190.790.593.391.192.589.789.592.790.189.992.990.393.190.790.593.391.190.993.5EM (RHS)GlobalDM91.393.791.5-30-20-1001020EASI GlobalEASI EMEASI DM30M E T A L S O U T L O O KP R E S E N T A T I O NJan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-1

7、7 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19Mar-19Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19Mar-1925050-10-15-20-25Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex TR premium/discount to global manufacturing PMIBloomberg Industrial Metals Subind

8、ex TR premium/discount to global manufacturing PMIPercentM E T A L SO U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NJan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14M E T A L SO U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NJan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 N

9、ov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18Jan-193By any rate such divergence is unsustainable, and mean reversion should come about. To converge with spot metals prices, global industrial production has to rebound to a solid 3% pace over the next six mo

10、nthsa needed condition for the manufacturing PMI to track around 53.Global PMI and Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex TRLHS: PMI Index; RHS: BCOMINTR IndexGlobal PMI and Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex TRLHS: PMI Index; RHS: BCOMINTR IndexGlobal Industrial Production growth and manufacturing

11、PMILHS: Global IP growth percent; RHS: Global PMI, index1704919050BCOMPMI2105123052250532701704919050BCOMPMI2105123052250532702905431055470.0480.5491.0501.5512.0522.5533.0543.5Global PMIGlobal IP554.0M E T A L S O U T L O O KP R E S E N T A T I O NJan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct

12、-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18Jan-19Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18Jan-194M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NHowever, we do eventually see Chinas monetary-driven stabilization ultimate

13、ly working to drive growth back up to 6.4% by 3Q19. As firmer growth becomes more apparent and demonstrable later in the year, we, in turn, see metals, for the most part, once again setting new year-to-date highs in 3Q19.M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O N JPM Global EconomicForecastsS

14、ource: J.P. Morgan5Further forward, with US 1-year forward recession risks still oscillating around 44%, we still factor in the significant likelihood of a macro rollover in 2020 for the time being and continue to see a major 4Q19 correction in industrial-linked metals prices.Probability of US reces

15、sion beginning within a year and two yearsPercentProbability of US recession beginning within a year and two yearsPercentProbabilities of US recession within 1 year from economic indicatorsM E T A L SO U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NSource: Various government and non-government sources, J.P. Mor

16、ganM E T A L SO U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NSource: J.P. Morgan. Historical average unconditional probability is the historical average probability of a recession starting within 12 months when beginning in an expansion, unconditional on any data. All other probabilities are based on regressi

17、on models.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%within 2 yearswithin 1 year80%Jan13May13Sep13Jan14May14Sep14Jan15May15Sep15Jan16May16Sep16Jan17May17Sep17Jan18May18Sep18Jan19Indicators the as the deviation from two-year 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%within 2 yearswithin 1 year80%Jan13May13Sep13Jan14May14Sep14Jan15May15Sep

18、15Jan16May16Sep16Jan17May17Sep17Jan18May18Sep18Jan196If we are correct and accommodative monetary policy and looser financial conditions manage to stabilize and then lift global growth by early-2Q, we expect bond yields to move decisively higher, weighing on precious metals in the coming months.Gold

19、s premium/discount to 10-yr real yieldsUS$/ozGolds premium/discount to 10-yr real yieldsUS$/ozMarket Expectations for Fed hikes in 2019 and 2020Percent$200$150$100$50$0-$50201920203.1O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NJan-18Mar-18May-18$200$150$100$50$0-$50201920203.1O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A

20、T I O NJan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-195-Nov 12-Nov 19-Nov 26-Nov 3-Dec 10-Dec 17-Dec 24-Dec 31-Dec 7-Jan 14-Jan 21-Jan 28-Jan 4-Feb 11-Feb 18-Feb 25-Feb 11-MarM E T A L S7M E T A L SAverage gold returns by quintile of expansionPercent change. Monthly data since Jan 1970Average gold

21、returns by quintile of expansionPercent change. Monthly data since Jan 197080%100%60%20%40%0%-100%0%100%2009200%1991200180%100%60%20%40%0%-100%0%100%2009200%19912001300%19751982400%1970ExpansionRecession1961500%Gold prices during expansions and recessions Measures change in the price of gold through

22、out the cycle with the beginning of expansion normalized to zero. We assume the current cycle will last 10 years. Monthly data since Jan 1960.50%40%30%22%20%18%14%10%6%0%-2%-10%M E T A L SO U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O N0-20%20-40%40-60%60-80%80-100%RecessionSource: CME, NBER, J.P. Morgan8JPM b

23、ase and precious metals price forecastsIndustrialIndustrialmetalsareLMEcashinUS$permetrictonne.PreciousmetalsarespotpricesinUS$pertroyounce Price and forecasts are quarterly and annualaveragesQuarterly and annual averagesCurrentActual changeMar 151Q192Q193Q194Q1920192020202120222023Past 1mo Past3mos

24、Past12mosBase MetalsAluminumUS$/mt1,8751,8901,8502,0021,880CopperUS$/mt6,4466,2356,2006,4005,600NickelUS$/mt12,84412,40012,69013,00011,200ZincUS$/mt2,8312,6702,5002,4502,300 1,9061,8331,8131,9212,306 6,1095,4165,3626,1667,584 12,32310,00011,00013,75016,500 2,4802,1001,9802,2202,5502.3%-1.8%0.6%-9.1%

25、5.3%5.2%8.4%-6.4%4.2%16.7%21.1%-5.4%9.2%10.2%12.4%-12.5%Precious MetalsGoldUS$/t oz.1,3021,2901,2601,3461,4051,3251,4601,3721,3041,369-0.3%5.1%1.6%-1.0%SilverUS$/t oz.15.2915.4515.0016.6217.3516.1017.6016.1015.8016.90-1.8%4.8%-1.3%-6.8%PlatinumUS$/t oz.8328168209009508729809008709205.7%5.7%4.5%-12.9

26、%PalladiumUS$/t oz.1,5531,3951,3301,4001,1501,3191,0359201,0001,10011.1%24.9%23.1%57.3%Source: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Forecasts as of 11 March 2019.M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O N9M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NRisks to our outlook skew bullish for base

27、 metals but are more balanced for precious metals. Risks to the outlook: bullish base, balancedpreciousWeaker USD (bullish base andprecious)The main risk to our view is that as global growth stabilizes, the US dollar could weaken meaningfully, which could lead to residual commoditiesstrength.Chinese

28、 Stimulus base)Our outlook for China had envisioned that the continued policy support would offset trade war drags, allowing GDP growth to stabilize slightly above 6% this year. With trade war tail risks fading, a key question is whether the policy stimulus will ultimately deliver larger boosts to g

29、rowth than expected. Similarly, if deleveraging efforts are rolled back, stimulus could have more immediate bullishfeed-through.PBOC Benchmark Rate Cut (bullish base)Similar to the point above,a benchmarkrate cut would considerablyadvancemonetary stimulus, openingfurtherupsidefor China-linkedassets.

30、Cycle Extension (bullish base, mixed precious)M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NIftherecentdovishturnsbycentralbanksdoindeedmeanthecyclehaslongertorunandrecessionrisksbeginmaterially dropping this would be clearly bullish for growth-dependent base metals. While a lower risk of a reces

31、sion would hurt safe havendemandforprecious,theultimatepriceimpactwouldbemoreinfluencedbytheFedsactions(seebelow).M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NFed Hawkish Rethink (bearish precious and base)Expectations have solidly shifted towards the Fed being more tolerant of above 2% inflatio

32、n given the recent embrace of average inflation targeting. However, if the Fed is not as dovish as expected in regards to inflation (i.e. continuing its current hiking cycle without clear signs of stronger inflation), this would clearly be bearish for precious metals as it would likely lead to some

33、major repricing inrates.Source: J.P. Morgan10CopperCopyright Glencore plc. Used with permission.M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O N11M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NM E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NHeadlines of copper supply disruptions have accelerated

34、 in recent weeks. In total, we have removed 165 kmt from our mine supply forecast as a result, yet our global copper mine production estimate for 2019 is running only 83 kmt lower than our November 2018 estimate.M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O N20020010002013201420152016201720182019D

35、ifference between JPM estimates and realized copper mine productionThousand mtSource: Company reports, Government and Industry data, USGS, Antaike, CRU, Wood Mackenzie, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research12140120100140120100806040200China copper scrap imports on contained basisChina copper scrap import

36、s on contained basisThousand mtO U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NJan-17Feb-17Mar-17Apr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17Dec-17Jan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Dec-18Jan-19Source: China Customs, LMEO U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NJan-17Feb-17Mar-17A

37、pr-17May-17Jun-17Jul-17Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17Dec-17Jan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Dec-18Jan-19M E T A L S13M E T A L SIn China, we see demand growing 2.7% this year (vs. 5% last year) driven by strong political intentions to support the domestic Infrastructure in

38、vestment will continue to be the main driver of copper demand through electrical grid and railway projects.China State Grid investmentBillion RMBChina State Grid investmentBillion RMBChina Yangshan copper premiumThousand mt600PlanActual500600PlanActual50040030020010002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20

39、17 2018 2019Jan-19Jan-18Jan-17Jan-16135125115105Jan-15M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NSource: GridSource: LME, SHFE, CMX, CRU, Metals BulletinM E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O N14Demand outside of China is not particularly strong, especially in Europea view reflected i

40、n continued low regional cathode premiums.CopperCopperdemandgrowth,2019E Percent change,M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NSource: CRU, J.P. Morgan Commodities ResearchM E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O N15Inventories on global exchanges are still running below 5-year aver

41、ages, but unlike 2018, the draws are taking place outside of China. We continue to estimate that the global copper market will register a slight deficit of about 140 kmt in 2019, which, for all purposes, should be considered a balanced market.Global copper inventories (exchange and bonded)Thousand m

42、tGlobal copper inventories (exchange and bonded)Thousand mtChina copper inventories (SHFE and bonded)Thousand mtJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec4002019Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec400201920185 year average5 year range6008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800Jan Feb Mar Apr May

43、 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec400201920185 year average5 year range5006007008009001,000M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NSource: LME, SHFE, CMX, CRU,Metals BulletinSource: SHFE, CRU, MetalsBulletinM E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O N16Over the long term, behind nickel, EVs

44、present the second greatest relative demand growth potential for copper. BEVs contain around 83 kg of copper, on average, or 60 kg more than a pure ICE vehicle.CopperCoppercontainedinlightvehiclesbypowertrain KilogramsCopperintensityperEVchargerKilograms9080Additional copper relative to an ICE9080Ad

45、ditional copper relative to an ICE706050403020100BEVPHEVFull+Mild HybridsICE403635302520151054.51.10Level 1Level 2Level 3M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NSource: International Association, J.P. MorganCommodities ResearchSource: CRUM E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O N17M

46、E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NWe estimate that additional copper demand from EVs (including charging port infrastructure) will grow from around 130 kmt in 2017 to roughly 965 kmt by 2025. This 965 kmt represents around 4% of annual refined copper production.M E T A L S O U T L O O K

47、 P R E S E N T A T I O N CopperconsumptioninEVsector(Thousandmt)2025F2024F2023F2022F2021F2020F2019F2018E201720160100200300400500600BEVPHEVFull+MildHybridsCharginginfrastructureChinaBEV700800900Source: CRU, International Copper Association, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, J.P. Morgan Estimates18Copper

48、supply and demand balance, thousand metric tonnes2014201420152016201720182019E2020F2021F2022F2023FMine Production18,65119,22520,18020,06520,60420,75421,62222,34523,25223,170growth2.4%3.1%5.0%-0.6%2.7%0.7%4.2%3.3%4.1%-0.4%Refined Production21,81822,16722,73722,95023,56424,07324,71225,30625,64125,918g

49、rowth5.5%1.6%2.6%0.9%2.7%2.2%2.7%2.4%1.3%1.1%Refined Use21,54821,76722,33222,90023,64624,21524,32725,17425,57725,979growth3.8%1.0%2.6%2.5%3.3%2.4%0.5%3.5%1.6%1.6%Balance2704004055161Source: Company reports, Government and Industry data, USGS, Antaike, CRU, Wood Mackenzie, J.P. Morgan

50、 Commodities Research. Published: 11 March 2019.Alternative scenarios to JPM copper base-case viewRiskRisk biasScenariosForecast range under risk scenarioM E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NBullishM E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NBearish:Bullish:a) Chinese demand slows m

51、arkedly on the back of economicmoderation and less metals intensive growth; b) Global economic growth momentum is not begins to underperform expectations; c) mining disruptions come in less- in 2018 adding to already strong mine production growth; d) oil declines rapidly from current $75/bbl level.a

52、) Strong Chinese demand is maintained through 2018 with metals intensity surprising to the upside; b) global economic growth continues to outperform expectations, providing an even more supportive environment for commodities; c) a high level of strike-related disruptions plague mine supply in 2018;d

53、) Grasberg production continues to disappoint; e) US$ weakens meaningfully.$5,680/t for2H2018$8,520/t for2H2018Source: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research19Copper balance by region, thousand metric tonnesMine Production201420152016201720182019E2020F2021F2022F2023FAsia2,7982,8943,2283,2713,4893,2703,496

54、3,9404,2594,268China1,7141,5361,6901,8081,9061,9682,0102,0402,0682,076North America2,6122,7342,8832,6682,5452,8162,8762,8892,9382,803Central & South America7,5578,0038,3458,3488,6189,2599,4409,6849,98910,151Europe1,0201,0431,0761,1031,0891,0621,0721,0331,005969Eurasia1,3621,3361,3591,4311,5461,7351,

55、7661,7921,8371,848Middle East254280328341381374408435448449Africa2,0831,9831,9892,0582,3242,5752,9393,0483,3393,379Oceania9659529748468749881,005950921783Mine Production18,65119,22520,18020,06520,86522,07923,00223,77224,73624,649Refined Use201420152016201720182019E2020F2021F2022F2023FAsia13,52813,98

56、814,58415,25515,80916,28316,62616,95817,24117,522China9,78810,16210,62011,15311,71112,02712,31212,46712,62212,767North America2,2082,1832,2242,1962,2552,2962,1962,3602,3882,416Central & South America582537470432441458443491507524Europe3,5963,6473,6683,6323,7213,7333,6393,8553,9043,949Eurasia62244741

57、8412424429427438441444Middle East734706757768788803790844864884Africa255244193185189195188208214221Oceania22141819191918191919Refined Use21,54821,76722,33222,90023,64624,21524,32725,17425,57725,979Global Balance201420152016201720182019E2020F2021F2022F2023FRefined Production21,81822,16722,73722,95023

58、,56424,07324,71225,30625,64125,918Refined Use21,54821,76722,33222,90023,64624,21524,32725,17425,57725,979Balance2704004055161M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NSource: Company reports, government and Industry data, USGS, Antaike, CRU, Wood Mackenzie, J.P. Morgan Commodi

59、ties Research. Published: 11 March 2019.M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O N20AluminumM E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O NCopyright UC Rusal. Used withpermission.M E T A L S O U T L O O K P R E S E N T A T I O N21Since we have downgraded Chinas aluminum production by close

60、to 1 mmt as price-driven closures now amount to 3.4 mmt/a since 1Q18. We now forecast Chinas aluminum production to reach 36.9 mmt in 2019, +1.9%China aluminum smelters cash operating profitRMB/tChina aluminum smelters cash operating profitRMB/tGlobal closures of smelting capacityThousand mt6,0005,0