谁将赢得亿万富翁的太空竞赛

1、GlobalResearch17 March 2019Q-SeriesEquitiesWho will win the billionaires space race?EquitiesAirlinesEurope including UKThe space travel and tourism opportunityAirlinesEurope including UKAn $800bn-plus space economy opportunity by 2030EJune 2019 will be the 50th anniversary of the first man on the mo

2、on, and in this note we explore two sub-segments of an industry UBS expects to grow from $244bn in 2010 to $805bn by 2030E. The sub-segments of space tourism and space to serve long-haultravelonearthhavebothseenahighlevelofnewventureformation(backed by wealthy entrepreneurs) and related government-s

3、ponsored programmes. In this report,wehaveanalysedmarketsize,selectedprivate-sectorplayers,challengesand consumer appetite for this exciting new market.Space tourism likely to be a common reality in the not-too-distant futureWhile space tourism is still nascent, we think it will become mainstream as

4、 the technologybecomesprovenandcostfalls.Forinstance,Bigelowhassuccessfullytested an expandable space module that uses an outer shell technology which will enable larger accommodation structures to be built in space. By c2030, we estimate space tourismwillbea$3bn-plusp.a.opportunitygrowingatdoubledi

5、git-rates.Readerscan testtheirownhypothesisthroughourinteractivesimulationmodel HYPERLINK /shared/d2HP5wzkw8PaI (Clickhere).We see an even bigger opportunity for space to service long-haul travel Although some might view the potential to use space to service the long-haul travel market as science fi

6、ction, we think the c800 route pairs on point-to-point flights that take more than 10 hours mean there is a large market to be cannibalised. Even if we assumeonly5%ofthemorethan150mpassengerswhoflewthoseroutesin2018are servicedbyspace,at$2,500pertrip,theopportunitywouldbeworthover$20bnp.a.A potentia

7、l game-changer in the long termNone of the hotel companies, airlines or tour operators under our coverage has disclosed plans to enter the space tourism or long-haul opportunity via space, but we think airlines and hotel groups are likely to enter the market over time. Indeed, like many other new di

8、sruptive segments (e.g., internet, digital photography), it is not the risk-averse incumbents that are the first movers, but new players. One could ask whether, at that point, it will be too late for incumbents to engage.Figure 1: Space tourism a near-term realityJarrodCastle,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:ja

9、rrod.castle +44-20-75688883Myles Walton, PhD, CFA HYPERLINK mailto:myles.walton +1-617-4398501EricLin HYPERLINK mailto:eric-p.lin +852-37123640CelineFornaro HYPERLINK mailto:celine.fornaro +44-20-75679351Robin M.Farley HYPERLINK mailto:robin.farley +1-212-7132060Cristian Nedelcu,CFA HYPERLINK mailto

10、:cristian.nedelcu +44-20-75684375Source: iStock HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ONPAGE39. UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investo

11、rsshouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Executivesummary3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Introduction t

12、o thespaceeconomy6Spacetourismimpactforhotels,airlinesandrelatedoperators.7 Sizing the space tourism opportunity HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Space routes forlong-haul travel12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Challengesinservicingthelong-haulmarketviaspace17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Companieswhichwouldbenefitfrom

13、spacetravelservicinglong-haul18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Path and hurdles to space tourism, and facilitation of long-haul travelonearth20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Safe andeffectivetechnology20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Regulationalegalframeworkforspacetourismisalreadyinplace21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Re

14、ducedall-incosts21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Consumeradoption22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Findings from UBS Evidence Lab Travel Intentions survey better-than- expectedfindingsforspacetourism/travel25 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Contrastingspacetourismwithsingle-pilotflightsurvey30 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Pa

15、rticipantsinthebillionairesspacerace32Appendix UBS Evidence Lab Travel Intentions surveyfindings 36UBSs Q-Series products reflect our effort to aggressively anticipate and answer key investment questions, to help drive better investment recommendations. Q-Series is a trademark of UBS AG.We would lik

16、e to thank Courtney Cook for the interactive model.JarrodCastle,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:jarrod.castle +44-20-75688883Myles Walton, PhD, CFA HYPERLINK mailto:myles.walton +1-617-4398501EricLin HYPERLINK mailto:eric-p.lin +852-37123640CelineFornaro HYPERLINK mailto:celine.fornaro +44-20-75679351Robin M.F

17、arley HYPERLINK mailto:robin.farley +1-212-7132060Cristian Nedelcu,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:cristian.nedelcu +44-20-75684375Executive summaryThe space economy is expected by UBS to grow from $244bn in 2010 to$805bn by 2030E. This report examines a sub-segment of the space economy, namely space tourism a

18、nd the market for space to facilitate long-haul travel on earth. There are a number of private and government enterprises involved in opening space travel to broader private participation. While space tourism is still at a nascentphase,wethinkthatastechnologybecomesproven,andthecostfallsdue totechno

19、logyandcompetition,spacetourismwillbecomemoremainstream,with thepotentialforlistedcompaniestoexploit.Furthermore,spacetourismcouldbe the stepping stone for the development of long-haul travel on earth serviced by space. Indeed, although there is no comparable frame of reference for survey participan

20、ts, the UBS Evidence Lab Survey suggests that respondents feel more comfortablewiththeconceptofflyingonaspaceshipratherthanapilotlessplane.CommercialspacecompaniessuchasVirginGalactic,SierraNevadaCorporation, SpaceX, Blue Origin, Bigelow and United Launch Alliance are investing aggressively acrossth

21、espaceopportunity.Weviewthescheduleassociatedwithmostofthese venturessceptically(aswellassomeoftheinitialpricingbeingdiscussed)giventhe reality that this is still rocket science. However, not only do we see a “new” entrant opportunity from space for the travel and leisure industry, but also, over ti

22、me, for incumbents such as hoteliers, commercial airlines, tour operators, and entertainmentcompanies,tonamebutafew.Weestimate,giventhespectrum for space tourism, by 2029 space tourism could be a market worth c$3bn per annum but growing at double digits. HYPERLINK /shared/d2HP5wzkw8PaI Click here fo

23、r interactive simulation.Belowweshowindicationsregardingthecosttoexperiencedifferent space opportunities.Zero Gravity ExperienceEdge of spaceZero Gravity ExperienceEdge of spaceSuborbitalLow earth orbit / accommodation in spaceOtherZero G $5.7KWorld View Enterprises $75KVirgin Galactic $250kPast cos

24、t per pax to visit ISS $20-40mTrip to Moon $150mMIGFLUG $5.6KZero2Infinity $75k Cosmo CourseBlue Origin $100-200kOrion $550K per night Bigelow AerospaceAxiom Space $5.5m per nightSpaceXSource: UBS, companyWhile space tourism is very much in the news today, the opportunity to service long-haultravelo

25、nearthbyutilisingspaceislessso.Althoughsomereadersofthis report might think of the potential to utilise space to service the long-haul travel marketonearthassciencefiction,wethinkthat,asspacetechnologycontinuesto evolveandcostsfall,itislikelyinthefuturethatspacewillbeutilisedon:Long-haulaviationrout

26、eswhichtake10hoursormoreontraditionalflights;Routes which are less than 10 hours but carry relatively affluent and time- sensitivetravellers,suchastheNorthAtlanticmarket(largestpremiummarket).Globally there are around 800 flight route pairs servicing over 150m passengersp.a.whichareover10hoursindura

27、tion.Theseroutessawover500Kflights(527k to be precise) in 2018 with planes that on average had 309 seats. If we assume that 5% of these flights in the future are serviced by space at $2500 per trip, the revenue opportunity as of today would be more than $20bnp.a.Space economy forecast to be$805bn by

28、 2030EA number of space opportunities existOpportunity to service long-haul travel utilisingspaceOver 200m passengers a year fly for 10 hours ormoreFigure 3: Revenue opportunity for space travel to service long-haul on earth ($bn) vs cost ($) and penetration on 10-hour-plus routes$1,500$2,500$5,000$

29、7,500$10,0005.0%$12bn$20bn$41bn$61bn$81bn7.5%$18bn$31bn$61bn$92bn$122bn10.0%$24bn$41bn$81bn$122bn$163bn12.5%$31bn$51bn$102bn$153bn$204bn15.0%$37bn$61bn$122bn$183bn$244bn17.5%$43bn$71bn$142bn$214bn$285bn20.0%$49bn$81bn$163bn$244bn$326bnSource: UBS estimatesWe think 5% penetration could prove conserva

30、tive as the findings from the UBS Evidence Lab survey suggest that over 10% of respondents would take a space route for long haul flights. The UBS Evidence Survey found that 13% of respondentswouldbewillingtotravelfrequentlybyspaceship,andafurther13% infrequently. In the US, 20% said they would trav

31、el frequently on a spaceship, while in Germany the proportion was 11%. We recognise that the reliability of these surveys will be low until respondents have a feel for the space travel experience and associatedcosts.Nevertheless, there are a number of challenges for space tourism and space to servic

32、e long-haul, namely: (1) safe and effective technology; (2) regulation; (3) reduced all-in cost; and (4) consumer adoption of the space tourism opportunity. Depending on the development of technology, we envisage a potential timeline for space tourism and long-haul on earth as per below. Realistical

33、ly, for some scenarios it could take decades before some of the more technologically challenging space opportunities are exploited. While planetary travel could occur during the 2040s, we see it as potentially a lifetime commitment.Figure 4: Potential timeline of space tourism and cost (y axis)Sourc

34、e: UBS, CompanyPotential market for space flights is therethough a number of challenges need to be overcomeBelowwehighlightsomecompanies(bothcoveredandnotcoveredbyUBSequity research) which could potentially benefit from the growth in space tourism and long-haul travel on earth.Figure5:Potentialbenef

35、iciariesofspacetourismandlong-haultravelonearth utilisingspaceSpacecraft manufacturersInfrastructure providersService providersInsuranceCommerical airlinesHoteliers and tourBoeingADPSATSHiscoxAir ChinaIHGLockheed MartinFraportMenziesBeazleyCathay PacificMarriottNorthrop GrummanFlughafen ZurichLuftha

36、nsa SkychefLancanshireChina EasternHiltonRaytheonOMASSPKorean AirHyattL3 TechnologiesAzurDufrySingapore AirlinesAccorHarrisGAPQantasTui AGMaxar TechnologiesSydney AirportANAAerojet RocketdyneAirports of ThailandJapan AirlinesAirbusZiamen International AirportAir France-KLMThalesMalaysia AirportIAGRe

37、action EnginesShenzen AirportLufthansaShanghai InternationalLatam AirlinesGuangzhou BaiyunAmerican AirlinesDeltaUnited ContinentalSource: UBSThe associated threat or opportunity from this theme would depend heavily on howthesecompaniesmoveandshapetheirbusinessmodelsaccordingly.Itmight betooearlytoco

38、nnectriskadjustedearningsforecaststothisthemebutignoring it qualitatively would be in our view short sighted. The Kodak moment did not happenwhenKodakfiledforbankruptcybutratheroveradecadeearlier.Ignoring this theme in our view is likely short sightedIntroduction to the space economyNo human being h

39、as walked on the moon in this authors lifetime, and a US spacecraft has not delivered a human into orbit in eight years. But the end of sequestration freeing US government spending and the rise of the billionaire spaceracemeantheoutlookforthespaceeconomy,spacetourismandlong-haul travelusingspacehasb

40、ecomemuchmorebullish.Accesstospaceisthenecessary starting point for an expansion of the space economy. Affordable, safe and frequent access to space will be the stepping stones to developing business models.Fortunately,alotofventuresarecurrentlyfocusedontheproblem.Space access is the enabler to broa

41、der opportunities for investment, but today it represents only 2% or so of the broader space economy. This report touches on theaccesstospacefornon-governmentaluse,whichislikelytoremainrelatively modest for some time but so too was commercial aviation for the first 50 years of its existence, until t

42、he commercial jet agebegan.TheAnnualCommercialSpaceCompendiumcompiledbytheUSFederalAviation Administration(FAA)identifiesaspaceeconomyworthjustunder$400bn.Within that total, about 28% is for commercial TV, which has not grown substantially in recentyears,andlikelyhaslimitedscopeforgrowthgiventherise

43、ofcord-cutting. Other than that exception, we expect the rest of the space economy to show a 3- 10% CAGR over the next 10 to 15 years, and see the fastest growth opportunity in the nascent but potentially fertile area of commercial space services, of whichspacetourismisonesegment.Butthereareotherseg

44、ments,rangingfrom the here-and-now (like GPS services and geolocation to the earth imaging) to longer term business models that are predicated on space based energy production and resource extraction.Figure 6: The space economy: Yesterday, today and tomorrowThebillionairespaceracethis report focuses

45、 on space tourism andtravelonEarthbothpartof a larger spacethemeThe current space economy is worth c$400bnSource: UBS estimatesThe most recent NASA budget waiting for Congressional approval highlights the shift of private enterprise taking ownership of LEO. Our report examines a sub- segment of the

46、space economy namely space tourism and the market for space to facilitate long haul travel on earth.Space tourism impact for hotels, airlines and related operatorsThe first so-called space tourist was Dennis Tito, who journeyed to the InternationalSpaceStation(ISS)in2001.Todate,onlytheRussianSpaceAg

47、ency has facilitated space tourism (seven tourists and eight flights), but a number of companies are now trying to exploit the opportunity. The company that brokered the deals between space tourists and the Russian Space Agency was Space Adventures,andtripscameatareportedcostofmorethan$20mperpartici

48、pant. By way of current pricing, NASA is paying Russia $80m/person for the service of ferryingUSastronautstotheInternationalSpaceStation.However,spacetourist flights were available only from 2001 to 2009, and we are not aware of any current plans on the part of the Russian Space Agency to offer addi

49、tional tourist flights.Wethinkanon-the-groundproxyforspacetourismcouldbetheglobaladventure tourism market, which has been growing at double-digit rates. The market includes any holiday involving a degree of risk or what could be viewed as non- traditionalactivities,suchaspolartrips,travellingtounexp

50、loredareas,adventure cruising, active holidays, caving, climbing, festival tours, sailing, food tours, wildlife-related travel, and walking or kayaking.How the space tourism model will evolve is still uncertain. One could envisage a valuechaininvolving:(1)touroperatorsandagencies;(2)currentbrandedho

51、tels;(3) new space-orientated hoteliers; (4) commercial space companies; (5) commercial airlines; and (6) entertainment companies. We think it will be more likely that new entrants rather than incumbents will be the first to benefit from the potential market.There are companies working to provide ac

52、commodation in space. We view sceptically the schedule associated with most of these ventures (as well as someoftheinitialpricingbeingdiscussed),giventherealitythatthisisstill rocket science. However, the potential for some success in space accommodation will become a reality as access to space beco

53、me frequent, affordable and, most importantly,safe.New entrants to the travel and leisure marketIn our view, the three ventures that have the most advanced space hotel propositions are:Orion Space In 2018, Houston-based Orion Space announced plans to launch its first luxury hotel in space, named Aur

54、ora Station, by 2021/22. The modularspacestationcanhostsixguestsatatimeandtwocrewmembersfor a 12-day space travel tour. The cost per night is estimated to be c$550,000, but including three months training a 12-day stay is expected to cost $9.5m. The company says Aurora Station would be 13.3 metres l

55、ong and 4.3 metres wide, compared to the ISS at 109 metres long and nearly 6x the size in cubic feet.TheAuroraStationwouldorbitat200milesaboveEarth,comparedtothe ISS at 250 miles aboveEarth.Bigelow Aerospace was founded in 1999 by Robert Bigelow, founder of Budget Suites of America. Bigelow Aerospac

56、e plans to launch two space stations, B330-1 and B330-2. The stations would be 17 metres by 7 metres, and operate in cislunar space. The initial plan is to sell accommodation toA number of companies are trying to exploit spacetourismGlobal adventure tourism is a proxy for spacetourismAnd both establ

57、ished and new companies are likely to exploit the opportunitygovernment to conduct experiments in orbital laboratories, with later plans to allow for commercial space tourism. The company plans to launch thestation by2021,buthasalreadydeployedanexpandablehabitablemodule,calledThe BigelowExpandableAc

58、tivityModule(BEAM),onboardtheInternationalSpace Station. BEAM weighs c3,000 pounds and consists of multiple layers such as theairbarrier,therestraint,micro-meteoroidandorbitaldebrislayers,external layers and an exterior cloth. The company also has the larger Olympus conceptual design, which would be

59、 an expandable space station around 50 x times larger than the BEAM.Axiom Space was founded in 2016, and plans to manufacture and develop orbital space stations. The company has announced that it will offer a 10-day excursiontoprivatecitizens,withaninitialplantolaunchtwomodulestoISSin 2022.OncetheIS

60、Sretiresin2025,themoduleswillseparatetoformtheirown spacestation.Axiomissuggestingthata10-daystaywillcost$55m.Incumbent actions regarding space tourism segmentCommercialairlinesWeaskedanumberofEuropeanandAsianairlinesabout theirobjectivesinrelationtospacetourism.KLMdidappeartohavearelationship with