申万海外新能源、中小盘816hk-huadian fuxintt

1、SWSResearchisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuan99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | Utilities|CompanyBringing ChinatotheJul18,CarbonHUADIANFUXINENERGYCORP-H(00816lndMarketData:Jul17,ClosingPriceSWSResearchisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuan99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | Utilities|CompanyBringing ChinatotheJul18,CarbonHU

2、ADIANFUXINENERGYCORP-H(00816lndMarketData:Jul17,ClosingPriceRevenue(RMBYOYYOYe(RMB kHigh/LowMarketCap(USDEPSDilutedEPS(RMB) ROE (%)Debt/asset (%) DividendYield(%) P/E (x)P/B (x) EV/EBITDA(x)MarketCap(HK$ PricePerformanceHuadian Fuxin achieved er generation of 10.8TWh (-5.5% YoY), bringing output 1H1

3、7 amounted to 20.1TWh (-3.8% YoY). We attribute the decline to a high erms roduction last year. Considering coal in 1H17 were n Source:werevisedownourEPSforecastsfromRmb0.28toRmb0.24in17E(+1.7%YoY),fromRmb0.36 to Rmb0.29 in 18E (+19.4% YoY), and from Rmb0.40 to Rmb0.33 in 19E (+12.4 YoY). We A023051

4、3070005 price down from HK$2.10 to HK$2.00. With 11% upside, we ain Normalising er, weak coal. er production returned to normal levels 1H17 after unusually heavy rainfall in 2016 drove er output to extremely high HUADIAN FUXIN (816:HK)_ er generation was 3.2TWh in 2Q17 (-30.4% YoY), bringing 1H17 ou

5、tput to 5.3TWh 33.4% YoY). We t the companys hydro and coal capacity are both located in erMar Province.Thus,reduceder output easesre on er.For1H17,coal-ameto5.8TWh(+21.5%YoY).However,ascoalpricehasremainedatahighlevelfollowing a 65%-plus rally to generation being squeezed.ak in November 2016, we 1H

6、17 net margin from coal-NuclearS and Sanered. Huadian Fuxin owns 39% of Fuqing Nuclear ion and 10% of xpect Fuqing Unit 4 to be o loperationinOctobernit 1 to be fired up at end-2017. The Fuqing plant consists of 3.2GW of Thecompanydoesnotholdanyequities or derivatives of the listed companycurrentlyi

7、noperation,and3.4GWunderconstruction.Basedonourt at the Fuqing Nuclear Sion contributes Rmb200-250m net profit per annum, we forecast Fuqing Nuclear Sion net profit contribution of 18E to total Rmb0.8-1.0bn.hisreport”),butweshall providefinan l subjecttotherelevantlawsand regulations.Anyaffiliatesof

8、theCurtailment eases. Winder generation amounted to 3.9TWh for 2Q17 (+15.8% YoY) and 7.1TWh for 1H17 (+11.3% YoY). The company plans to install 700-800MW over mayholdequitiesof,exceed 1 percent of iedshare to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investmentCompared with 201

9、6, the curtailment e is improving and curtailment of Huadian s declined, although still accounts for n 10% of the er ingto.Company fulfills its duty of disclosure withinitssphereofknowledge.Thec nts maycontactBy comparison, China Longyuan (916:HK BUY) recorded a June curtailment rate of 8.8% and Hua

10、neng Renewables (958:HK BUY) recorded a 6% rate.wsresearchcomrelevantdisclosurematerialsorlog ain Outperform. We revise down our EPS forecast from Rmb0.28 to Rmb0.24 in 17E (+1.7%YoY), fromRmb0.36 to Rmb0.29 in 18E (+19.4%YoY), and fromRmb0.40 toRmb0.33 undercolumnforfurtherinformation.Thec shall ha

11、ve a comprehensive understanding ofthedisclosureand19E(+12.4YoY).WelowerpricefromHK$2.10toHK$2.00, representing7.2x17E and 0.6x 17E PB, or 6.1x 18E PE and 0.55x 18E PB. With 11% upside, we maain our Outperform rating.eruponthelastSWSResearchisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuan99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai |

12、Utilities|SWSResearchisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuan99EastNanjingRoad,Shanghai | Utilities|CompanyBringing Chinatothe5.5%3.8%元调至 0.24 元（同比增长 1.7%，2018 年由 0.36 元调至 0.29 元（同比增长19.4%，201912.4%11%的上行空间，因此维持增持。30.4%5.3TWh（33.4%。由于公司水电及火电装机均位于福建省，因此水火互济效应明显，水电回归正常为火电让出发电空间。然而，2016 年下半年以来，煤炭价在，据15.8%7.1TWh（

13、同比增长 11.3%。公司计划年内新增装机 700-800MW。2017 年以来，新能源（958HK，买入）六月限电率分别为 8.81.7%，19.4%，201912.4%。Jul18,Utilities|CompanyFigure1:SegmentrevenueSource:CompanyJul18,Utilities|CompanyFigure1:SegmentrevenueSource:Companydata,SWSFigure2:2016SegmentoperatingprofitSource:Companydata,SWSFigure3:Thermalcoal(Q5500)price

14、ofNingboSource:Wind,SWSPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantPageJul18,Utilities|CompanyTable1:eCostofeAdministrative ProfitbeforeWSTable2:ConsolidatedCashFlow LossesfromCXCFfrominvestingJul18,Utilities|CompanyTable1:eCostofeAdministrative ProfitbeforeWSTable2:ConsolidatedCashFlow LossesfromCXCFfromin

15、vestingNetchangein-OtherCFfromfinancing0000NetcashWSBandPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantPagemillion CFfromfinancing-Dividenderest-EquityOtherCFfrominvestingCFfromoperatingChangeinworking-FinancemillionProfitbeforeetaxFinanceRepairsandma GrossmillionJul18,Utilities|CompanyLong-termangibleandother

16、 TradeandLong-termShareEquityWSTable4:KeylEarningsperOperatingCFperNetassetsperGrossprofitEBIT GrowthrateofTurnoverrateofnetJul18,Utilities|CompanyLong-termangibleandother TradeandLong-termShareEquityWSTable4:KeylEarningsperOperatingCFperNetassetsperGrossprofitEBIT GrowthrateofTurnoverrateofnet WSPl

17、easerefertothelastpageforimportantPageDividendyield GrowthrateofEBITDA DividendperDilutedearningsperRatiospershare OthercurrentOthercurrentTradeandotherJul18,Utilities|Company The views his report accura y reflect al views of yst. yst t neither he/she nor his/her asso servesasanofficerof norhasanyfi

18、nan erestsinrelationtothelistedcorporationreviewedbyyst. Noneofthe listedcorporationsoranythirdpartyhasprovidedoragreedtoprovideanycompensationorotherbenefitsinconnectionwiththisreporttoanyofyst,the or the groupcompany(ies). A group company(ies) ofthe Company confirm tthey, whether individually or a

19、s a group(i) are not involvedin anymarket making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do no ve any individual employed by or asso ted wi Jul18,Utilities|Company The views his report accura y reflect al views of yst. yst t neither he/she nor his/her asso servesasanofficerof

20、norhasanyfinan erestsinrelationtothelistedcorporationreviewedbyyst. Noneofthe listedcorporationsoranythirdpartyhasprovidedoragreedtoprovideanycompensationorotherbenefitsinconnectionwiththisreporttoanyofyst,the or the groupcompany(ies). A group company(ies) ofthe Company confirm tthey, whether indivi

21、dually or as a group(i) are not involvedin anymarket making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do no ve any individual employed by or asso ted wi ny group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do no ve any fi

22、nan l erest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or with he last 12months, have any investment b ing relationshipwith the listed corporation reviewed.UndertakingsofI(We) am(are)conferredthe alQuality of Securities Investment Consulting Industry by the SecuritiesAs

23、so tionofChina andhave as the Securities yst. I hereby i e this report independently andobjectively with due diligence, profes al and prudent resear ethods andonly legitimate information is used his report. I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report. I have never been, am not,

24、 and will not be compensated directly or indirectly in any form for the specificmendations or opinions herein.DisclosurewithrespecttotheThe company is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. The company is a qualified securities investment consulting institute approved by China Securities Regul

25、atory Commis with the code number ZX0065.Releasing securities research reports is the basic form of the securities investment consulting . The company yze the values or trendsofsecuritiesandrelatedproductsorotherrelevantaffectingfactors,provideysisadviceonsecuritiesvaluation/investmentetc.byingsecur

26、itiesresearchreportssolelytoitsc The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The c nts may contact for the relevantdisclosure materials or log o for theysts qualifications，the arrangement of the quiet period and the roductionofShareInvestmentRating Security Investment

27、 Rating：Whenmeasuringthedifferencenthe markup of the security t of the markets ark within six months after the release of this wedefinethetermsasTradingBUY:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneraten20%upsideovera6-monthBUY:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneraten20%upsideovera12-monthOutperform:Sh

28、arepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneraten10-20%upsideovera12-monthHold:Sharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneraten10%downsideto10%upsideovera12-montherform: Share price performance is expected to generate betn10-20%downsideovera12-monthperiod. SELL: Share price performance is expected to generate more

29、n 20% downside over a 12-month period. When measuring the difference bet report, we definetheterms as follows: Overweight：Industryperformsbettern the markup of the industry index t of the markets ark within six months after the release of ntofthewholeEqualweight：Industryperformsaboutthesametofthewho

30、le ntofthewholeWe would like to remind t different security research institutions adopt different rating terminologies and rating standards.Weadopt the rating method mend the relative weightings of investment. The c nts s to buy or sell securities shall be based on their actual such as their portfol

31、io structures and other sary factors. The c nts shall read through the whole report so as to he complete opinions information and shall not rely solely on the investment ratings to reach . The Company employs its own industry classification system. industry classification is available at our sales H

32、SCEI is the benarkemployedhisreport.nelifyouThis report is to be used solely by the c nts of SWS Research . ( subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, hereinafter referred to as “Company”).TheCompanywillnotdeemanyersonasitsc ntnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisThisreportisbasedon public information,

33、however,theauthenticity,accuracyorcompleteness ofsuchinformation is notwarrantedbytheCompany.The materials, tools, opinions and speculations contained herein are for the c nts reference only, and are not to be regarded or deemed as an invi ion for the sale or purchase of any security or other invest

34、ment instruments.The c nts t the text messagereminder mendationare no na briefcommunicationof the research which are subject to the complete report released on the Companys website ). The c nts may ask for follow-explanationsiftheysoThematerials,opinionsand estimatescontainedherein only reflecttheju

35、dgmentoftheCompanyonthe day thisreportisreleased. The pri ,valuesand investment returns of the securities or investment instruments referred to here ay fluctuate. At different periods, the Company may release reports which are inconsistent with the materials, opinions and estimates contained herein.

36、Save and except as otherwise stipulated his report, the contactor upon thepage of the report only acts as the liaison who shall not provide any consulting servi .The c nts shall consider the erests ay affect the objectivity of this report, and shall not base their s solely on this report. The c nts

37、should make investment s independently and solely at your own risk. Please be t in event, the company will not share gains or losses of any securities investment with the c nts. Whether written or oral, any commitment to share gains or losses of securities investment is invalid. The investment and s

38、ervireferred to hereay not be suitable for certain c nts and shall not constitute al advice for individual c nts. The Company does not ensuret this report fully takeso consideration of the particular investment objectives,finan l situations or needs of individual c nts. The Company strongly suggests

39、 the c nts to consider themselves whether the opinions or suggestions herein are suitable for the c nts particular situations; and to consult an independent investment consultant if neUnder no shallthe informationcontained hereinor the opinions expressed herein forms an mendationto anyone. no circum

40、stanshalltheCompany beheldresponsible foranylosscausedby theuseofanycontentshereinby anyone.Pleasebeparticularlycautiousto the risks and exures of the market via investment.Independent investmentconsultantshouldbeconsulted beforeanyinvestment deci for this report where the receiver of this report is

41、 not a c nt of the Company.is rendered based on this report or at any request of PleaserefertothelastpageforimportantPageJul18,Utilities|CompanyThe sesses all copyrights of this report which shall be treated as non-public information. The Company s related to report. Unless otherwise indicatedJul18,

42、Utilities|CompanyThe sesses all copyrights of this report which shall be treated as non-public information. The Company s related to report. Unless otherwise indicated in writing, all the copyrights of all the materials herein belong to the Company. In the absence of any authorization by the Company in writing, no part of this report shall be copied, photocopied, replicated or redistributed to any othersoninanyformby anymeans,orbeusedinanyotherways which willinfringeupon thecopyrightsoftheCompany.Allthe trademarks,servicemarksandmarksusedhereinaretrademar