《2050年我国高比例可再生能源发展的宏观经济影响评价》精选课件

1、2050年我国高比例可再生能源发展的宏观经济影响评价The Economic Impacts of High Penetration RE Scenarios in China to 2050A CREAM-CGE model study谢旭轩XIE Xuxuan国家发展和改革委能源研究所/国家可再生能源中心Energy Research Institute of NDRC / China National Renewable Energy Center2019年9月15日Sep. 15th 2019能源基金会课题Supported by Energy Foundation第1页，共19页。汇

2、报内容Outline研究背景Research Backgroud可再生能源CGE模型构建The Renewable Energy CGE model分析结果和讨论Results and discussion第2页，共19页。研究背景Research background第3页，共19页。研究背景Background- world energy transformationEnergy scenariosReinventing Fire: energy saving + renewables & nuclear powerThe third industrial revolution: IT +

3、 renewablesIIASA, Global energy assessment: energy efficiency improvement + zero carbon energy (RE to 60-80% 2050)EU energy roadmap: low carbon devopment (85% reduction to 2050), energy system transformation (RE 55%+ )Other reports: IEA world energy outlook, energy technology outlook, IPCC RE source

4、s and climate change mitigation, etc.The main approachEnergy efficiencyRE (reshaping of energy structure)COALOILNUCLEARRE?第4页，共19页。能源结构革命可能对经济产生显著影响Reshaping of energy structure数据来源Sources:EU energy development roadmapGermany: Energy PlanJapan: Basic Energy PlanUS: 2050 RE power development scenario

5、 study66%49%25%50%44%60%41%57%那么，能源结构革命的社会经济影响如何？The question is: whats the economic and social impacts?第5页，共19页。我国必须改变化石能源为主的能源结构Chinas energy structure should be reshaped in the coming decades研究能源路线图和能源发展战略，必须分析不同情景下的社会经济影响，以判断相关情景的经济可行性和可承受性-Research of energy roadmap should study on impacts on s

6、cenarios to evaluate the feasibility of such reshapement建立能源结构转型与经济部门分析的联系，有助于讨论我国能源转型战略各种可能、各种情景下，能源与经济的影响和反馈In this study we developed a energy computerable general equilibrium (CGE) model to set up the relation between energy and economy2000201920192050第6页，共19页。可再生能源CGE模型构建the renewable energy CG

7、E model (cream cge)-developed by cnrec 第7页，共19页。可再生能源CGE模型框架Overview of CREAM-CGE model与日本国立环境研究所(NIES) AIM/CGE 模型Based on NIES AIM/CGE of Japan逐年动态递归CGE模型Recursive dynamic model with parameters updated every period第8页，共19页。模型41个部门Sector definition（41）部门编号名称缩写部门编号名称缩写1纺织和制衣业TXT23铁路运输业TSP_RL2化工业CHM24

8、公路运输业TSP_RD3非金属开采和制品业NMP25公共运输业TSP_PP4其他非金属制品业O_NM26水运运输业TSP_WT5钢铁冶炼业M_IS27航空运输业TSP_AR6有色金属制品业M_NF28其他交通部门TSP_OT7粮食加工业GMP29仓储业ST_WH8蔬菜和植物油炼制业VOL能源转换部门9屠宰和肉类生产业MET30天然气生产和加工TGAS10饮料制品业DNK31石油和核燃料生产P_N11其他食品加工业O_FD32炼焦COK12造纸业PAP33电力生产ELE13金属制品业MPD土地利用部门14交通工具制造业TPQ34农业AGR15机械制造业MCN35林业FST16电子设备制造业ELP

9、36养殖业LST17其他制造业O_MN自然资源开发利用部门18水产品生产和供应业WPS37采矿业MMN19建筑业CST38其他农业OTH_AGR20科学研究和教育业R_D39煤炭采掘业CMN21卫生、社会安全和福利H_W40石油开采业COIL22服务业SVC41天然气开采业NGAS国民经济41部门（投入产出表2019调整版）based on the input output table of 2019第9页，共19页。投入产出表按发电技术的拆分Disaggregate power generation sector投入产出表已知的参数是整个发电部门的Y，Xi，Vl，Vk等需要估算的变量是各种发

10、电技术的产出YTECH，各个环节的中间投入Xi,tech，Xm,TD，Xm,OH，劳动力投入Vl,tech，Vl,TD，Vl,OH和资本投入Vk,tech，Vk,TD，Vk,OH根据电力统计资料或行业报告获得各技术的发电量、发电成本、资本、劳动力、投入比例等信息，以此为依据将电力部门拆分（Source: S. Wing（2019)）Main energy technology1Coal power6Wind power2Oil power7Biomass power3Gas power8Solar PV4Hydro power9Bio-liquid production5Nuclear pow

11、er10Bio-gas production第10页，共19页。可再生能源与经济部门的影响关系Relationships between RE development and economy直接替代化石能源Substituting fossil fuel directly替代火电In power sector: substitution of coal-fired powerI替代燃油交通n transport sector: substitution of petrol oil with bio-gas and bio-oil; electric car, hybrid vehicle de

12、mand more clean electricity替代居民化石能源消费In household sector: substitution of coal, gas, LPG with clean power.对非能源部门的间接影响Indirect impacts on non-energy sectors能源价格传导Due to energy price change. Fossil energy price would fall, resulting in lower energy cost and higher output level in other sectors; power

13、price would increase, resulting in negative impacts on other sectors.绿色就业Driving effect on other related sectors, forming green economic growth point and creating green employment.对化石能源部门的间接影响Negative shock on the sectors related to fossil energy.宏观经济影响（产出、就业、工业结构）Impacts on the whole economy result

14、ed from the above effects (sectoral output, employment, and industry structure)部门产值、居民收入、就业、价格指数、进出口等Sectoral output, GDP, residential income, employment, commodity price, import and export, output of sectors, GDP.环境和健康影响Environmental and health co-benefits11第11页，共19页。结果和讨论Results and discussion第12页

15、，共19页。经济发展和结构基本假设Economic development and structure84 trillion142 trillion202020302050240 trillion产业结构调整Industry structure Transform to tertiary industry人均GDPPer capita GDP (美元/人US dollar/cap):4400 in 20198700 in 202014300 in 203026800 in 2050GDP6 times to 2019RMB in 2019Reference: DRC and the WB (2

16、019)第13页，共19页。能源结构The energy mixSource : CREAM-CGE simulation2050年：60亿吨标煤2050 Total: 59.9 *108 tce 2050年：53.5亿吨标煤2050Total: 53.5 * 108 tce53.5%13%26.5%37%63%19%第14页，共19页。经济影响Economic output -RE sectors可再生RE非化石Non-fossil产值Output11.112.8增加值Value added7.28.3GDP234对GDP贡献Contribution to GDP3.1%3.5%Unit:

17、Trillion Yuan in 2019单位：万亿元（按2019年价）增加值Added value 水电Hydro 0.95 (0.5%GDP)风电Wind3.36 (1.4%GDP)太阳能Solar 2.4 (1.0%GDP)生物质Biomass0.3 (0.1%GDP)In year 2050与届时农业，或钢铁部门相当Similar to Agriculture, or iron and steel, or textile plus paper, or construction industry各部门增加值Added value of sectors(百亿人民币10 billion RM

18、B)各部门产值Output of sectors(百亿人民币10 billion RMB)第15页，共19页。创造就业Job creation and green growth in 2050 - other sectors related创造就业岗位560万个Creating 5.6 million jobs带动其他行业增加产值7.6万亿人民币Hatching 7.6 trillion Yuan other industry output增加值2.3万亿Producing 2.3 trillion Yuan added value by other industries*基准情景高比例情景可

19、再生行业服务业R&D交通建筑业其他制造业电子机械制造业金属冶金其他金属第16页，共19页。对其他行业的影响+/- Impacts on all sectors煤炭采掘业负面影响最大：减少就业人数116.5万人，产值降低一半以上Coal mining：1.2 million employment loss, half output reduction其他影响较大的行业：建筑业、原油开采、天然气开采等Other sectors: construction, oil exploitation, gas exploitation服务业、教育研发部门显著上升Significant increased i