云基础设施：AWS微软Azure和谷歌云Q1预览

1、Global Research | 12 April 2021Cloud Infrastructure1Q21 Preview of AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google CloudSummaryAs we approach the 1Q21 reporting season for Microsoft, Amazon and Google, we share our thoughts about their cloud infrastructure segments Azure, AWS and Google Cloud, respectively, after s

2、peaking to 30+ customers and partners throughout the quarter. Our focus was on the pace at which cloud migration discussions and deal commitments are likely to convert to actual go-lives and usage as well as flagging the key incremental trends that we picked up from our checks. We are hosting an inv

3、estor call at 10am ET on Tuesday April 13 to summarize our views.Key Insights From our ChecksWe conclude: 1. More so than in any other quarter, we heard anecdotes pointing to a material pick-up in commitments to start migrating existing on-premise IT workloads to the cloud. We suspect that this stem

4、s from enterprises now having greater line of sight to a post-pandemic normal, overall IT budgets improving and cloud adoption simply becoming mainstream. Even though these up-front commitments have a long tail (3- year terms with usage really ramping in years 2 or 3), this is a major medium-term po

5、sitive for the AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud and a risk to hardware and software firms supporting on-premise infrastructures. 2. On the margin we heard more anecdotes suggesting that Microsoft Azure is gaining ground among larger enterprises.We were surprised by the number of customers and p

6、artners flagging a material interest in migrating and querying data in public cloud data centers, a positive for each of the Big 3 as well as Snowflake. 4. More large AWS customers are now transacting through the AWS Marketplace to acquire 3rd-party software products hosted on AWS, as a way to burn

7、through up-front volume commitments with AWS. For Amazon and Google investors, this means that customers are accelerating the conversion of up-front deal commitments to reported revenues while for Software investors it means that any firm with an AWS-hosted version offered on the AWS Marketplace has

8、 new and potentially powerful sales channel.Read-through to Microsoft, Amazon and GoogleOur best estimate of buy-side revenue growth bogeys for 1Q21 are 48-49% for Microsoft Azure, 28% for AWS and 45-47% for Google Cloud. Our customer and partner checks throughout 1Q21 led us to conclude that overal

9、l demand and cloud migration activity improved compared to 4Q20 and we see upside potential to these investor expectations. Among the Big 3, we see the greatest potential for upside in the AWS growth estimate, which at 28% implies stable growth and sequential dollar growth of $338 million (+28% y/y)

10、 despite the fact that the year-ago 1Q20 quarter had a $100 million tougher sequential compare given that it followed a December quarter that included the big AWS re:Invent conference. EquitiesAmericasSoftwareKarl KeirsteadAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:karl.keirstead karl.keirstead+1-310-734-2455Taylor M

11、cGinnisAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:taylor.mcginnis taylor.mcginnis+1-212-713 1332Benjamin MillerAssociate Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:ler ler+1-212-713 3629This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research

12、 Review published by UBS, begin on page 20. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report a

13、s only a single factor in making their investment decision.Cloud InfrastructureUBS ResearchOverall Market TrendsLets start by reviewing overall public cloud infrastructure trends, starting with a snapshot of reported growth metrics and then discussing the incremental themes that we picked up from ou

14、r customer and partner checks throughout 1Q21.Backdrop Growth Stabilization in 2H20After a sharp deceleration in reported y/y growth rates as well as dollar sequential revenue growth in 2Q20 following the start of the pandemic, 3Q20 and 4Q20 were marked by stabilization, with the combined revenues f

15、rom the Big Three ($23.7 billion in 4Q20, disclosed by Amazon and Google but estimated for Microsoft Azure) growing by 37% in each quarter. Note, however, that growth modestly accelerated for each of Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud in 4Q20 and the combined sequential dollar growth of $1.74 billion

16、in 3Q20 and $2.23 billion in 4Q20 were the two strongest quarters ever. Among the big cloud providers, only Microsoft offers any hint at growth metrics for their cloud segment, with Azure expected to grow by 46-48% in 1Q21, which at the high end would represent consistent growth and sequential dolla

17、r growth of $695 million a record first quarter for Azure and close to the single-quarter (estimated) records of $711 million in 2Q19 and $704 million in 4Q20. Bottom line, weve now transitioned from a post-pandemic deceleration in 2Q20 to stabilization in 2H20 to the potential for acceleration in 2

18、021.Figure 1: Y/Y and Sequential Growth Trends ($ in millions)CY18CY19CY20CY21E4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2QDec-18Mar-19Jun-19Sep-19Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20 Mar-21E Jun-21EAWSRevenue7,4307,6968,3818,9959,95410,21910,80811,60112,74213,02913,672% Y/Y Change45%41%37%35%34%33%29%29%28%28%27%Sequential Do

19、llar Growth7512666856149592655897931,141287643% Y/Y Change42%-19%3%7%28%0%-14%29%19%8%9%AzureRevenue2,9163,3114,0224,3424,7355,2485,8966,4097,1137,8088,680% Y/Y Change, c/c76%75%68%63%64%61%50%47%48%48%46%Sequential Dollar Growth185396711320392514648513704695872% Y/Y Change81%51%32%16%112%30%-9%60%7

20、9%35%35%Google CloudRevenue1,7091,8252,1002,3792,6142,7773,0073,4443,8314,0274,511% Y/Y Change53%52%43%45%47%45%50%Sequential Dollar GrowthN/S116275279235163230437387196484% Y/Y Change41%-16%57%65%20%110%Total Revenue12,05512,83214,50315,71617,30318,24419,71121,45423,68624,86426,863% Y/Y Change44%42

21、%36%37%37%36%36%Total Sequential Dollar GrowthNA7781,6711,2131,5869421,4671,7432,2321,1781,999% Y/Y Change21%-12%44%41%25%36%Source : Company filings, UBSeFeedback from Industry ChecksSince we published our 4Q20 Cloud preview in January 2021, weve spoken to 30 enterprise customers and partners to sh

22、arpen our view of demand trends, in particular to refresh our view of cloud infrastructure adoption in 2021 and the pace at which new deals are likely to convert to actual usage. See the unvarnished feedback below:CustomersIn terms of the cloud infrastructure providers, two years ago our AWS spend w

23、as growing 5x that of the others, and Google was nonexistent. Today Azure is growing 5x that of AWS and GCP is still nonexistent. You get great access with Microsoft, and they bring great support. Google Cloud just hasnt really cracked the enterprise. We continue to spend on-premise, but are getting

24、 far more capacity/power in return, we just refreshed our IBM Power systems. Core IBM and HPE will see marginal growth over the next few years, but networking will struggle.For Microsoft, our overall spend has gone up, mostly because of our decision to choose Azure as our primary cloud provider. In

25、terms of the cloud, weve deployed production workloads into each of the Big 3, but havent done any lift-and-shift yet. Its all around new apps, and we use a modern RedHat OpenShift platform. COVID accelerated our shift to the cloud just moderately - we dont have a cloud-first mandate, it doesnt make

26、 sense for us to move legacy apps to the public cloud platform, as we have two almost fully-depreciated data centers, its just cheaper to run there than in the cloud. We leverage cloud when its less expensive or we dont have time to build, and those instances are becoming more frequent with time. Sp

27、ending on AWS/Azure/GCP has increased a couple % points in terms of our overall IT spending mix. We also use some Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, but only to host our Oracle ERP apps, we do not plan on leveraging more than that. We dont want to put more in OCI since were trying to reduce our Oracle rel

28、ationship.In terms of cloud adoption, 80% of everything we do is in the cloud, COVID has probably accelerated that a little further, to maybe 85%. Were also spending more on-premise, there are areas where on-premise is cheaper. This year, we made a decision to exit Rackspace, we brought about two th

29、irds of those workloads back in- house, one third to another cloud. The Rackspace ROI just didnt pan out.COVID had a big impact on our IT spend, I would say it accelerated our plans. For us, AWS is the big winner, we had to grow our infrastructure to support the roll-out of our new mobile apps and o

30、ther initiatives. We could also see growth in Snowflake and other vendors given our larger focus on data. We were prepared for these changes because we were 97% in the cloud before COVID hit, AWS remains our dominant cloud. It has even increased its share. Were growing with Google Cloud, but only fo

31、r a very specific niche need.Our cloud migration plans really havent changed with COVID. We are spending more on data analytics and became a customer of Snowflake just 6 weeks ago.Post-COVID and our budget cuts, we elected to make the public cloud our primary IT infrastructure and are accelerating o

32、ur migration activity. We have a new RFP out to AWS, Microsoft and Google to select our primary cloud partner.We serve the still-healthy life sciences vertical and are expecting an increase in our IT spend in 2021. We use mostly AWS for data analytics and dev/test and plan to accelerate the migratio

33、n of existing apps, we are less than 20% of the way there, lots left to move.Were spending up-front to re-purpose many existing on-premise apps and move them either to our private cloud or to AWS/Azure.We have historically focused on building our own IT infrastructure and using co-lo facilities whil

34、e most other large Internet firms embraced AWS. Weve shifted our stance and are now 50% co-lo and 50% AWS/Google Cloud. The plan is to be 70% on AWS/Google Cloud over the next few years. Now, data localization is the only advantage of on-premise/co-lo. The scale benefits have eroded, this has swung

35、materially in favor of the cloud vendors.We actually started to pull back from AWS in 2020 given the cost, but we saw very aggressive moves by AWS in areas like cloud VDI/Workspace which helped to narrow the cost gaps with on-premise solutions. Were still depreciating our on-premise infrastructure s

36、o will squeeze everything we can out of it, I actually increased our on- premise spend by 30% in 4Q20. Maybe well have one more on-premise refresh cycle and then off we go to the cloud, but all new workloads are already going to AWS.We use all 3 major cloud providers and have been on that journey fo

37、r some time,COVID didnt really accelerate it.Our on-premise spend will be flat, no growth in 2021, 100% of the spending growth will go to cloud initiatives. Were really leaning into Google Cloud in particular, and are becoming a large customer of BigQuery for our data analytics needs.At a high level

38、, 2021 will largely be about cloud-based projects, both SaaS applications and cloud infrastructure, especially AWS, not so much about on-premise investments.Given the turmoil in 2020 we delayed our cloud migration plans but we now want to move forward and are going through a selection process with A

39、WS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud right now. UBS Note: this is one of the largest companies in the world, they use mostly AWS but also have a footprint with Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, well do our best to keep our eye on their selection process.Were pushing more things to the cloud, budgets

40、 are shifting to cloud-centric vendors like Microsoft.In the beginning of 2021 we chose Microsoft Azure as our primary cloud partner and are now planning for a material cloud migration over the next 3 years (with a ramp that looks like 10%, 20% and 70% over these 3 years). Im not even confident we c

41、an do this in 3 years, but we must make the move within 7 years as our data centers reach end-of-life. The question were dealing with now is whether we should carry- over our databases or utilize Azures. We could tune and configure Oracle to run on Azure and were trying to avoid using the native dat

42、abases of the cloud vendors in order to avoid lock-in.Weve recently undertaken a massive migration, shutting down 38 global data centers, and so we run a lot of our Oracle databases in AWS and Azure. As we lift- and-shift workloads to AWS and Azure, we may not carry-over all our Oracle databases, we

43、re currently examining if there is a better way. We already use a lot of Azure SQL databases.Were one of the largest telecom providers in India and public cloud infrastructure adoption here has gone exponential. Microsoft was the first to build a data center in India and while the others have now fo

44、llowed, Azure still has by far the biggest presence in India.Weve become more aggressive about moving to the cloud, were now 55% on the public cloud, mostly Azure, and 45% on-premise. Our internal goal is to get to 75% public cloud.Large Cloud PartnerIn terms of the cloud infrastructure market, thos

45、e big backlog growth metrics you saw in 4Q20 were real, the 4th quarter was very strong. Weve recently seen $2 billion of commitments across 4 deals alone. They now have a massive pipeline they now need to convert. Youll see much more consumption in the 2H of this year, as consumption or usage typic

46、ally lags by 2 quarters. But these are 3-5 year deals so a full ramp will take some time. Were seeing a bigger uptick in data center exits, as well as data and analytics modernization. Its not a flurry, but definitely an uptick in the number of $0.5+ billion commitments. Mainframe replacements is an

47、other area of strength and AWS is in the process of launching a competency around this.On the pricing front, discounts are greater than 6-12 months ago, yes. AWS is doing more custom-negotiated deals discounted down to the product level. If youre large consumer of EC2, for instance, youll have speci

48、fic negotiations there. All of the hyper-scalers are getting more aggressive. They are also provide a chunk of money to customers up-front to help offset the cost of the services, and bringing the partner ecosystem along to get clients to their platform quicker. Were seeing incentive plans, AWS has

49、MAP (migration acceleration program).Among the Big 3, AWS is still the behemoth out there. Microsoft is catching up, theyre doing a good job leveraging their extensive IT relationships. Google is being the most aggressive with everybody because they have to be, were seeing the partner ecosystem arou

50、nd Google really shape up. Look at whos signed with Google Sabre, Deutsche Bank, Fedex and now Ford with a $400-500 million deal. The onlytraction Oracle OCI has is for on-premise Oracle workloads that customers just want to move off-premise. On those $2 billion of deals I mentioned, Oracle wasnt ev

51、en in the mix. Theyre only popular for Oracle apps, Ive never seen them beat the Big 3.Other PartnersCustomers are looking to reduce their on-premise footprints, and we saw lots of planning and assessment activity in 2H20 as customers prepare for more AWS/Azure use in 2021. Given that these conversa

52、tions really started in Sept 2020, Id say usage on AWS/ Azure is likely to start in 2Q21 and then really ramp closer to 4Q21.Weve seen an enormous pick-up in demand for cloud migration projects, a crazy level of demand. Conversations re-started in 3Q20 and 4Q20 and through February, 1Q21 is up mater

53、ially. AWS remains the dominant firm, but were seeing a real spike at Google Cloud compared to 2018/2019. They used to be a back-up vendor for non-essential workloads, but now theyre winning large customers for enterprise- grade projects.December was the busiest month of the year for us, and each mo

54、nth in 4Q20 felt incrementally better. Even on-premise felt better as there are plenty of applications that arent moving to the cloud anytime soon. But any on-premise uptick was more on the software side, were not seeing much appetite for new server, storage or networking hardware. Looking into 2021

55、, it will be the biggest year for cloud migrations ever. Id say the biggest 2021 theme will be cloud migration to AWS, Azure and Google Cloud.Weve seen a demand pick up over the last 3 months, customers seem more confident, funding for delayed deals is resuming. On-premise spend is still muted, Id s

56、ay 80% of the uptick in spend that we saw in 4Q was directed to cloud-based projects.CIO priorities appear to be a) further cloud migrations, b) cyber-security and c) automation tech, like RPA and low-code development platforms. On cyber-security, I think Microsoft will be a huge beneficiary. On top

57、 of that, cloud migrations are just pulling along so many other parts of their portfolio.Were one of the largest resellers in the world and are seeing a nice recovery in storage and server hardware spend over the last few months. 98% of the on-premise infrastructure is not yet migrated to the cloud,

58、 enterprises have huge on-premise footprints, there is still a refresh need even if everyone is becoming cloud-first and new apps/workloads are all being built for the cloud. I think cloud and on-premise can both grow, but for sure, there are organizations that are no longer interested in the care a

59、nd feeding of their on-premise infrastructure, they just want to move stuff out of their data centers and into the cloud or co-lo facilities.Were seeing a material uptick in interest in the cloud, both lifting-and-shifting existing applications and databases as well as targeting new workloads for th

60、e cloud. The biggest change is the acceleration in lift-and-shift demand. As a result, AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud are gaining database market share, creating softening demand for on-premise database software. The impact on the database market from the hyper-scalers is definitely the #1 is