能效计划评估、计量及验证

1、能效计划评估、计量及验证EM&V Topics内容Introduction Evaluation of Energy Efficiency ProgramsMeasurement and Verification of Energy Efficiency Projects Procedures, Principals and Methods Evaluation Management and Planning 2介绍能效方案的评估能效工程的测量和验证 步骤，要点和方法评估管理和规划1. IntroductionWhy is evaluation important?Evaluation as

2、part of the Program CyclePrograms versus projectsInstitutions Required to Perform Evaluation31. 介绍为什么评估是重要的?评估作为方案周期的一局部 方案与工程的比较 进行评估所需机构 Why Evaluate Efficiency Programs为什么评估能效系统“Things that are measured tend to improve “事情总是通过测量来改善Economist John Kenneth Galbraith 经济学家约翰.肯尼斯.高伯瑞 9/11/074How do we

3、increase performance?我们如何提高性能2/27/095Athletes 运发动Set goals 设定目标Develop training plans 设计培训方案Track progress 跟踪过程Compete! 比赛Example Cycling Training Program举例-自行车培训方案2/27/096Power能力Heart rate心率7Energy Investment Decisions 能源投资决策Investment in Supply Side 供电侧投资Demand-Side 需求侧Investment 投资 Supply-Side 供电

4、侧Generation 发电Transmission 输电Distribution 配电Efficiency 效率Demand Response 需求响应What Information is needed to support Supply-Side 供电侧需要什么信息？ Investment decisions ? 投资决策？ Implementation ? 执行？ Settlement ? 结算？8Efficiency Investment Decisions 能效投资决策 Information Needs 信息需求Demand-Side 需求侧Investment 投资 Suppl

5、y-Side 供电侧Generation 发电Transmission 输电Distribution 配电Efficiency 效率Demand Response 需求响应What Information is needed to support Demand-Side 需求侧需要什么信息？Investment decisions ? 投资决策？Implementation ? 执行？Settlement ? 结算？Lighting 照明Boilers 锅炉Plant Improvements 工厂改进Controls 控制High Efficiency Motors 高效电机9EXAMPLE

6、: California 2021-2021 Energy Efficiency Programs举例：加利福尼亚 2021-2021能效方案Demand-Side 需求侧Utility Investment 公用事业投资$4 Billion US 40亿美元 Supply-Side 供电侧Generation 发电Transmission 输电Distribution 配电Efficiency 效率Demand Response 需求响应Lighting 照明Boilers 锅炉Plant Improvements 工厂改进Controls 控制High Efficiency Motors

7、高效电机 EM&V Protocols Based on:EM&V 协议基于：IPMVP10EXAMPLE: California 2006-2021 Energy Efficiency Portfolio举例：加利福尼亚 2006-2021能效投资方案Demand-Side 需求侧Evaluation Best Practice评估最正确实践 Supply-SideGeneration 发电Transmission 输电Distribution 配电Efficiency 效率Demand Response 需求响应 Applies Standard Protocols 采用标准协议 EM&V

8、 Budget = $100 Million EM&V预算：1亿美元Thousands of Projects Measured 检测了数千项目Evaluation ObjectivesPrimary objectivesDocument and measure the effects of a program and determine how well an efficiency program met its goalsHelp understand why those effects occurred and identify ways to improve current and f

9、uture programs Other objectives: Determining the cost-effectiveness of a program Documenting compliance with regulatory requirements 9/11/0711评估目标 主要目标 记录和测量一个工程的影响，并确定一个能效方案是如何到达其目标帮助理解为什么发生这些影响，并确定如何改进当前和今后的工程 其他目标: 确定工程的绩效 记录证明符监管要求 Evaluation is Part of the Program Cycle评估是工程周期的一局部Evaluation res

10、ults are used to make informed decisions on program improvements and future program designs and offerings The program implementation cycle is one in which programs are designed, then implemented, and then evaluated Using results of evaluations, programs are re-examined for design changes and then mo

11、difiedThis cycle provides for a continuing process of program improvement 9/11/0712 评估结果用于对计工程改进，未来工程设计和方案作出有见地的决定 工程执行周期是包括工程设计，然后执行，再做评估的一个过程 使用评估结果， 可以对工程进行核查以便开展设计变更和修改 这个周期给工程的改进提供了一个连续的过程 Program Evaluation Cycle工程评估周期13Step 1: Program Goal Setting 步骤1：设定工程目标 Setting evaluation goals and repor

12、ting expectations 设 定评估目标和报告期望值Step 2: Program Design 步骤2：工程设计Preliminary evaluation plan and budget 初步评估方案和预算Step 3: Preparing for Program Launch 步骤3：准备工程启动Prepare detailed evaluation plan collect baseline data as needed 准备详细评估方案-收集所需基准数据Step 4: Program Implementation步骤4：工程执行Evaluation data collect

13、ion, analyses and reporting (perhaps continuing on after program is completed) 评估数据采集，分析和报告也许在系统完成之后持续进行Feedback for future programs反响给未来工程 Feedback for current program 反响给当前工程Evaluation Best Practice评估最正确实践Ample budget 5-8% of program budget Appropriate Governance Protocols and Community of Experti

14、se Institutions Features Complete and transparent Balances risk, reliability and costs Consistent to allow comparison across programs and technologies9/11/0714 充足的预算为工程预算的5-8% 适当的监管 议定书和专家 (团队意见 机构 特点 完整和透明 均衡风险，可靠性和本钱前后一致以保障对各工程和技术进行比照 Evaluation Institutions评估机构DSM Institutional Framework DSM Sect

15、ion 2 of Manual 2.2.3.8 2.4 Measurement and Verification Responsibility Contractors Skilled Professionals Professional Societies Certification 2/27/0915 制度框架见手册第2章节22.4 计量和验证 职责 承包人 专业人士 专业协会 认证EM&V FrameworkEM&V 框架Institutions National, Provincial, Cities, Utilities, Consulting Companies Profession

16、al Development Training Certification Documents / Protocols Tools Metering Data 2/27/0916 机构-国家，省，市，公用事业部门，咨询公司 专业开展 培训 认证 文件/议定书 工具-计量-数据Programs versus Projects工程与工程 A portfolio is a collection of programs A program is a collection of multiple, similar projects A project is a single energy efficie

17、ncy activity Evaluation = programs Assess the performance and quality of a program Measurement and Verification (M&V) = projects data collection, monitoring and analysis project17 一个工程组合是多个工程的集合 一个工程是多个相类似工程的组合 一个工程是指 一个能效活动 评估= 工程 评估一个工程的业绩和质量 计量和验证 (M&V) = 工程 对各个节能工程进行数据采集，对节能效果进行监测和分析2. Evaluatio

18、n of Energy Efficiency Programs能效工程的评估Program Evaluation TypesImpact -“Total and “Net Calculations Process EvaluationMarket EffectsGetting Credit for Reduced Emissions (GHG)9/11/0718工程评估类型影响“总量和“净量计算过程评估市场效应获得减排GHG交易配额Types of Evaluations评估类型Impact evaluations determine :Energy (kWh) and Demand (kW)

19、 savings and avoided emissionsOther benefits (such as health benefits, job creation, and water savings) that directly result from a program Can also include cost-effectiveness analysesProcess evaluations assess how well a program was, or is, being implemented Market effects evaluations estimate a pr

20、ograms influence on encouraging future energy efficiency projects because of changes in the energy marketplace9/11/0719影响评估确定:能源(kWh)和需求(kW) 的节约量和防止的排放量从一个工程直接获得的其他效益比方健康效益，增加就业和节约用水 还可包括本钱效益分析过程评估是评估一个工程已经完成的情况或目前正在执行的进展情况市场效应评估估计由于能源市场的变化，工程对推动未来能效工程的影响程度Impact Evaluations: Total and Net影响评估：总量和净值

21、Total Energy Impact - The change in energy consumption that results directly from actions of participants in the DSM program. Net Energy Impact - The total change in energy use that occurred because of the DSM program Total Energy and Net Energy impacts are not usually the same Net Savings/Total Sav

22、ings = Net to Total Ratio (NTR) 20总能源影响是指DSM工程参与者的行动直接产生的能源消费的变化净能源影响由于实施DSM工程， 能源使用方面发生的全部变化总能源和净能源影响通常不是相同的净节能/总节能 =净值与总量的比率(NTR) Net Impacts Methods净值影响方法Self-reporting surveys Information is reported by participants and non-participants, without independent verification or review.Enhanced self-r

23、eporting surveys Self-reporting surveys, interviews and independent documentation review and analysis.Econometric methods Statistical models compare participant and non-participants energy/demand patterns with adjustments using econometric analyses and survey input.Stipulated net to total ratio Base

24、d on historic information9/11/0721 自我报告调查由参与者和非参与者报告调查信息，无独立验证或审查增强的自我报告调查自我报告调查，面谈和独立文件审查和分析计量经济学方法统计模型使用计量经济学分析的调整值和调查输入，比较参与者和非参与者能源/需求模式 约定的净值与总量比率基于历史资料Process Evaluations过程评估Recommendations can consist of suggestions for changing:Programs structure How the program is implemented Program design

25、Program deliveryProgram goals Should test for the use of best practices and consider consumer satisfactionShould assist timely feedback to make program changes as needed or to review early findings. 9/11/0722建议由改进意见组成：工程结构 如何实施工程工程设计工程产出工程目标应当试验最正确实践的应用并考虑消费方的满意度应当协助及时的反响，对工程做必要的修改或对早期发现的问题进行审核The p

26、rogram is new or has many changesEnergy savings are less than expectedThere is low participation by consumers and other participants in programs Program has a slow start-upParticipants are reporting problemsProgram appears to not be very cost-effective 9/11/0723工程是新的或已经有很多修改时节能效果低于预期时消费者和其他参与者较少参与工程

27、时工程起动较慢时参与者报告存在问题时工程的本钱效益不高时Process Evaluations are Valuable when:过程评估有意义的，当：Process Evaluation Methods过程评估方法As with impact evaluations, process evaluation requires a plan It is best if the process evaluation is done by a group independent of the program implementationProcess evaluation is done with

28、 data collection from:Surveys: Individual interviews Group interviews Written surveys Observation, measurement and analyses 9/11/0724正如影响评估，过程评估需要一个方案过程评估最好由一个独立于工程实施方的机构来进行 过程评估所需数据采集来自：调查个别访谈 集体采访 书面调查观察，计量和分析9/11/0725Market Effects Evaluation市场效应评估Market Effects Study evaluates increases in the a

29、doption of energy efficient products, services in the market.Market effects evaluations determine whether the market is changing. Example: What types of high efficiency products are generally available, such as CFLs? Market effects evaluations usually consist of surveys, reviews of market sales data

30、, and analysis of the survey results and collected data.市场效应研究评估市场中的采用能效产品和效劳是否增加市场效应评估确定是否市场正在发生变化。例如：市场上一般有哪些高能效产品，如紧凑型荧光灯CFLs？ 市场效应评估通常包括市场调查，审查市场销售数据，分析调查结果和分析采集的数据。Evaluations can be uses to Calculate Avoided (GHG) Emissions评估可用于计算防止的温室气体(GHG) 排放量防止的排放=净防止的耗能量x 排放因数需要解决的问题有：额外性边界问题需要开发清洁开展机制CDM

31、方法 26Avoided Emissions = (Net Avoided Energy Use) x (Emission Factor) Issues that must be addressed:Additionality Boundary Issues Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) methods required Greenhouse Gas Reporting温室气体报告273. Measurement and Verification of Energy Efficiency Projects能效工程的计量和验证Measurement and

32、Verification DocumentsThe IPMVP - International Performance Measurement & Verification ProtocolIPMVP Options (A,B,C,D)9/11/0728 计量和验证文件 IPMVP-国际性能测试和验证协议IPMVP选项A，B，C，DMeasurement and Verification (M&V)计量和验证 (M&V)M&V is an evolving form of research, although common practices existThese practices are

33、documented in several guidelines, including:The International Performance Measurement & Verification Protocol - IPMVP (2007) U.S. FEMP M&V Guidelines: Measurement and Verification for Federal Energy Projects Version 3.0 (2021)ASHRAE Guideline 14: Measurement of Energy and Demand Savings (2002) 9/11/

34、0729计量和验证是一个不断进化的研究形式，尽管存在通常的做法这些做法包括在几个指南中，包括：国际性能测试和验证协议-IPMVP (2007)美国能源管理方案FEMP M&V指南：联邦能源工程的测量和验证版本 3.0 (2021)美国采暖，制冷和空调工程师协会ASHRAE 指南 14：能源测量和需求侧节能(2002) 9/11/0730Determining the Savings确定节能250,000500,000750,0001,000,000kWhBaseline Period基准期Performance Period绩效期Actual Energy Use 实际能耗 Baseline

35、Projection 基准线预测31M&V Options M&V 选项Options A and B are retrofit-isolation methods选项A和B是改造隔离方式Options C and D are whole-facility methods选项C和D是整个设施方式The difference is where the boundary lines are drawn区别在于边界线的划定M&V Options M&V 选项2/27/0932The Options differ in their approach to the level, duration, an

36、d type of baseline and reporting period measurements. Options A and B measurements are taken at the end-use system level (e.g., lighting, motor system)Option C evaluations are conducted at the whole-building or whole-facility level.Option D evaluations, which involve computer simulation modeling, ar

37、e also made at the system or the whole-building level. 各选项的区别在于他们所涉及基准的水平，时间和类型以及报告期的测量 选项A和B测量是在在终端用能系统层面进行例如照明，电机系统选项C评估是在整个建筑物或设施层面进行。选项D评估，包括计算机仿真模型，是用于系统或整个建筑层面。M&V Options (cont) M&V 选项续前2/27/0933In terms of type of measurement:Option A - involves using a combination of both stipulations and m

38、easurements of the key factors needed to calculate savings in engineering models.Options B - and C involve using data collected from spot, short-term, and/or continuous measurements in engineering models (Option B) or regression analyses (Option C).Option D - may include spot, short-term, or continu

39、ous measurement data to calibrate computer simulation models.在计量类型方面：选项A- 此方案使用对关键系数既通过计量又按公式的方法 ，这些系数供用来计算工程模型中的节能量选项B和C-涉及工程模型使用从现场，短期，和/或连续测量中采集的数据选项B或回归分析选项C。选项D-可能包括现场，短期，或连续测量数据来校准计算机仿真模型。Example: IPMVP in Evaluation Application - New York State Programs案例：IPMVP评估应用-纽约州工程Commercial/Industrial

40、Performance Program (CIPP) pay-for-performance program Approximately one third of NYSERDA savingsM&V protocols based on IPMVP and FEMP M&V Guideline 2.2Employs IPMVP Options A DM&V evaluation of NY States CIPP impactsMultiple approaches ranging from stipulated savings values to using IPMVP options A

41、 DContracts specify that reviews be consistent with IPMVP 9/11/0734商业/工业绩效方案CIPP以绩效为依据拨付资金的工程 大约为纽约州能源研究和开展管理局节能量的三分之一M&V协议基于IPMVP和FEMP M&V 指南2.2款采用IPMVP选项A-DM&V评估纽约州CIPP方案的影响多种方法：从规定节能量到使用IPMVP选项A-D合同规定审查应符合IPMVP4. Procedures, Principals and Methods程序，要点和方法Issues to Address in Evaluation Planning R

42、esource Documents 9/11/0735评估规划中应关注的事项文件资源Common Evaluation Issues To Address in Planning 在规划中应关注的一般评估事项确定评估目标和规模相对大小或全面性设定评估期限和报告期望值设定评估空间边界确定方案的基准线，基准调整，和数据采集的要求确定到达信息可靠目标的预算选择 用于总量和净值节能计算和防止排放计算的影响评估方法选择谁或哪类机构来开展评估9/11/0736Define evaluation goals and scale (relative magnitude or comprehensiveness)Set time frame for evaluation and reporting expectationsSet spatial boundary for evaluation Define program baseline, baseline adjustments, and data collection requirementsEstablish a budget in context of information reliability goals Select impact evaluation approaches for t