国民总收入对居民消费支出的影响

1、民总收入对居民消费支出的影响19902010年的国民总收入与居民消费支出的观测值如表所示日期国民总收入（亿元）x居民消费支出（亿元）y199018718.309450.90199121826.2010730.60199226937.3013000.10199335260.0016412.10199448108.5021844.20199559810.5028369.70199670142.5033955.90199778060.8036921.50199883024.3039229.30199988479.2041920.40200098000.5045854.602001108068.204

2、9435.902002119095.7053056.602003135174.0057649.802004159586.7065218.502005183618.5072652.502006215883.9082103.502007266411.0095609.802008315274.70110594.502009341401.50121129.902010403260.00133290.90做出X与Y的散点图，如下:500,000100,000-400,000-300,000-200,000-Y可以看出X与Y之间呈线性关系，并且很明显。做出X与Y的回归，得出回归结果如下:Dependent

3、Variable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:07/07/12Time:09:40Sample:19902010Includedobservations:21CoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.X0.3255990.00836138.942710.0000C9617.2641463.5936.5709950.0000R-squared0.987626Meandependentvar54211.01AdjustedR-squared0.986975S.D.dependentvar36599.84S.E.ofregression4176.9

4、99Akaikeinfocriterion19.60297Sumsquaredresid3.31E+08Schwarzcriterion19.70244Loglikelihood-203.8311Hannan-Quinncriter.19.62456F-statistic1516.535Durbin-Watsonstat0.290208Prob(F-statistic)0.000000估计模型结果如下：y=9617.264+0.325599*X1s=(1463.593)(0.008361)t=(6.570995)(38.94271)R2=0.987626F=1516.535DW=0.29020

5、8S.E=4176.999模型检验:经济检验：b=0.325599,表明我国国民总收入每增加1亿元时，居民消费支出增加0.325599亿元。b=9617.264，表明居民消费支出的基本量为9617.264亿元。估计标准误差评价：S.E=4176.999即估计标准误差为4176.999，它表示居民消费支出估计值与实际值之间的平均误差为4176.999亿元。S.E越小，则回归精度越高，代表性越好。拟合优度检验：R2=0.987626，说明样本回归直线的解释能力为98.7626%，表示我国居民消费支出的总变差中，由解释变量国民总收入x解释的部分占98.7626%，或者说我国居民消费支出变动的98.7

6、626%可由样本直线做出解释，模型的拟合程度较高。参数显著性检验：对于b1，t的统计量38.94271，P=0.00，在a=0.05时拒绝原假设H0：b1=0表明国民总收入对我国居民消费支出有显著影响。b0的t统计量为6.570995,P=0.00，通过检验，拒绝原假设，表明其他因素对我国居民消费支出也有显著性影响。DW=0.290208，说明随机误差项有ut正的相关性。Series:ResidualsSample19902010Observations21Mean-5.72e-12Median1500.318Maximum4661.912Minimum-7627.361Std.Dev.4071.235Skewness-0.531486Kurtosis1.863270Jarque-Bera2.119306Probability0.346576P=0.346576接受原假设