产业政策现有比较优势与企业表现课件

1、 very preliminaryComparative Advantage and the Effects of Place-Based Policies: Evidence from Chinas Export Processing ZonesZhao Chen#, Sandra Poncet*, Ruixiang Xiong#China Center of Economic Studies, Fudan University*Paris School of Economics (University of Paris 1) and CEPII2022/8/4第1页，共23页。I. Int

2、roductionIndustry policies, place-based policies and Economic Zones in ChinaNo conclusive conclusions about the effectiveness of place-based policies (Moretti, 2010, Busso et al., 2013)Difficulties in evaluation of industry policies (Krugman, 1983)How to measure industry policyHow to identify the ca

3、usality2022/8/4第2页，共23页。I. IntroductionIn this paperThe effects of export-processing zones (EPZs)Clear policy purposeThe role of comparative advantage DID estimation using a quasi-experiment of EPZs in China.2022/8/4第3页，共23页。II. Brief literature reviewThe effect of industry policies (Cai, Harrison a

4、nd Lin, 2011)Tariff policy has positive impact on TFP of industries with comparative advantageComments:Tariff policy & TFPComparative advantage: exporting firmsPolicy of protection vs. policy of promotion第4页，共23页。II. Brief literature reviewPolicy evaluation of Economic ZonesCity-level data (Wei, 199

5、5; Wang, 2013; Alder et al., 2013)Firm-level data (Head and Ries, 1996; Schminke and Van Biesebroeck, 2013)Comments:policy at city-level, no within city differenceFew concern about the heterogeneous impactThis paper:Policy difference at city-industry levelComparative advantage第5页，共23页。III. Backgroun

6、d of Chinas EPZsAim: promote exports by preferential policiesEstablishment : 2022/8/4Establishment yearNumber of EPZs2000152001320028200313200518total57第6页，共23页。III. Background of Chinas EPZsOnly some industries chosen as key industries could enjoy preferential policiesPreferential policies in EPZs：

7、free VAT, free trade for imported components; facilitate firms exporting outside： tax reimbursement when providing firms in EPZs with intermediate goods 2022/8/4第7页，共23页。IV. DataData sourceChina annual survey of manufacturing firms from 1998 to 2007SampleTo make the cities more comparable, we only i

8、nclude the cities having EPZs by 20052022/8/4第8页，共23页。3. DataData cleaningBasic cleaning (Brandt et al., 2012, Nie et al., 2012)Industry classification adjustment (Yang et al., 2013)Administrative division adjustment (Bao et al., 2013)Price deflatorExporting firms (1998-2007)Matching key industries

9、2022/8/4第9页，共23页。4. Empirical Results2022/8/4第10页，共23页。4. Empirical ResultsHow to define comparative advantage (CA):Qci = 1, if location entropy for industry i in city c 1 before EPZ establishment, otherwise 0RegressionFull sampleSubsample with CASubsample without CATriple-interaction term with Qci2

10、022/8/4第11页，共23页。4.1 Basic model(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Full-sampleWithout CAWith CAFull-sampleWithoutCAWith CAOLSOLSOLSFEFEFET-0.0477-0.0106-0.0547-0.0594*-0.0317-0.0640*(0.0326)(0.0344)(0.0360)(0.0191)(0.0291)(0.0217)K-0.03320.00541-0.0414(0.0337)(0.0364)(0.0394)T*K0.0663*0.009030.0830*0.104*0.03670.123

11、*(0.0255)(0.0299)(0.0283)(0.0157)(0.0303)(0.0169)Constant-0.909*-1.388*-0.404-0.247-0.328*-0.229(0.232)(0.143)(0.283)(0.243)(0.169)(0.313)Cluster-CityYESYESYESYESYESYESObs338,21197,966240,245338,21197,966240,245R-squared0.9120.9120.9130.9190.9160.921Number of panelid75,19722,46452,7332022/8/4第12页，共2

12、3页。4.2 long-run effectsReference group: n = - 5 -7, -6, -5(n=-4) * Kci(n=-3) * Kci (n= 4) * Kci (n= 5) * Kci 第13页，共23页。4.2 long-run effects: full sample2022/8/4第14页，共23页。4.2 long-run effects: sub-sample w/o CA2022/8/4第15页，共23页。4.2 long-run effects: sub-sample with CA2022/8/4第16页，共23页。5. Robustness c

13、hecks2022/8/4第17页，共23页。5.1 Using interaction terms（FE）T-0.0185(0.0325)T*K0.0451(0.0319)T*Q-0.0549*(0.0330)T*K*Q0.0811*(0.0333)Constant-0.241(0.240)Cluster-cityYESObservations338,211R-squared0.919Number of panelid75,1972022/8/4第18页，共23页。5.2 Considering firms relocation 2022/8/4(1)(2)(3) full-sampleWi

14、thout CAWith CAT-0.0481*-0.0192-0.0539*(0.0194)(0.0282)(0.0225)T*K0.108*0.03760.128*(0.0159)(0.0287)(0.0172)Constant-0.265-0.356*-0.253(0.217)(0.162)(0.276)Cluster-CityYESYESYESObservations277,61079,517198,093R-squared0.9190.9160.921Number of panelid56,09016,55539,535第19页，共23页。5.3 Omitted governance

15、 abilities（FE）(1)(2)(3)Full-sampleWithout CAWith CAT-0.0169-0.0115-0.0149(0.0347)(0.0441)(0.0378)T*K0.0873*0.003930.108*(0.0281)(0.0434)(0.0311)Constant-0.0469-0.144-0.0499(0.269)(0.147)(0.364)Cluster-CityYESYESYESObservations158,34045,687112,653R-squared0.9200.9180.921Number of panelid34,56910,2332

16、4,3362022/8/4第20页，共23页。5.4 Higher export intensity firms（FE） Prologis（2008）(1)(2)(3)Full-sampleWithout CAWith CAT-0.0524*-0.00726-0.0652*(0.0256)(0.0354)(0.0266)T*K0.110*0.03460.130*(0.0215)(0.0457)(0.0231)Constant-0.539-0.570*-0.546(0.436)(0.225)(0.554)Cluster-CityYESYESYESObservations166,80947,361119,448R-squared0.9300.9320.930Number of panelid38,76611,51227,2542022/8/4第21页，共23页。6. Conclusions and implicationsConclusions Average effectsOverall: