第二季度全球经济预测

1、introduction 2021 Euromonitor International1Euromonitor International Analytics offers precise answers to vital business questions in an increasingly fast-paced and uncertain world. Our Macro Model provides regularly updated forecasts and “what-if” scenarios for core macroeconomic variables, includi

2、ng gdp, growth and unemployment. Its global scope ensures our macro forecasts and scenarios reflect the economically inter-connected world in which we live.The Global Economic Forecasts report focuses on quarterly macro changes for the worlds key economies and what these mean to our view of the like

3、ly, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the global economy. Ultimately, we help businesses stay ahead of risks and opportunities as they emerge on a macroeconomic basis.The global economic outlook has improved since q1 2021. Global real gdp growth in 2021 is now expected to be the fastest in mo

4、re than 40 years, at 5.8% (a 0.5 percentage point upgrade relative to the q1 forecast), followed by 4.5% growth in 2022 (a 0.4 percentage point forecast upgrade). The forecast upgrade is mainly driven by advanced economies, which are now expected to grow by 5% in 2021 (a 1 percentage point increase

5、relative to the q1 forecast) and by almost 4% in 2022 (a 0.7 percentage points forecast upgrade), compared to the long-term trend growth of 1.5%. In contrast, developing economies real gdp growth rate forecast for 20212022 has been raised by just 0.20.3 percentage points to 6.5% and 5.0%, compared t

6、o the long-term trend of 4.1%.The strong recovery outlook for advanced economies is mainly driven by the US, due to its relatively fast vaccine deployment and the strong fiscal stimulus measures deployed by President Biden. Faster than expected increases in vaccination rates and a reduction in coron

7、avirus infections in the UK have also led to a major upgrade in UK forecasts.Among developing economies, the economic outlook has improved in China, Mexico and Turkey, on the back of stronger than expected recoveries at the end of 2020 and early 2021. However, the emergence of a major new pandemic w

8、ave in India during spring 2021 is expected to cause an economic contraction in q2, leading to a significant forecast downgrade.The covid-19 pandemic remains a significant constraint on global economic activity in q2, with ongoing lockdownsand social distancing measures in many countries. However, m

9、ore targeted lockdowns and greater consumer adaptation, such as online shopping, have reduced the impact of recent lockdowns.5.8-5-10-1.9-3.36.5-6.82.1-3.53.95.06.78.6-4.8Advanced EconomiesDeveloping and Emerging EconomiesWorldEurozoneChinaUS05%10Source: Euromonitor International Macro ModelGlobal R

10、eal GDP Growth Baseline Forecast 20192023 2021 Euromonitor International2Vaccination rates sufficient for approaching herd immunity are likely to be reached in advanced economies and some developing economies in q3q4 2021. Once mass vaccination is attained, a strong recovery is expected in currently

11、 depressed high social contact sectors, supported by rising consumer confidence, fiscal stimulus and high accumulated savings. In contrast, most developing economies are unlikely to reach high vaccination rates before the second half of 2022,delaying their recovery.Both pessimistic and optimistic sc

12、enarios are becoming less likely as more extensive vaccination campaigns are undertaken in q2q3. The baseline forecast is now assigned around 66% probability, with pessimistic scenarios of a delayed economic recovery assigned around 28% probability and the optimistic scenario of a faster recovery as

13、signed around 6% probability.The main downside risks remain the emergence of more contagious coronavirus variants, and the possible spread of variants that are more resistant to the current vaccines.The risk of a vaccine-resistant virus mutation coming from developing economies with ongoing strong p

14、andemic waves and slow vaccination campaigns, such as Brazil or India, is especially concerning.Global Real GDP Index, Baseline and Alternative Scenarios 20192023Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model2019202020212022202390100110120 Pre COVID-19 Euromonitor BaselineCOVID-19 Optimistic 1 COVID-

15、19 Pessimistic 1COVID-19 Pessimistic 2100=2019 Global Real GDP 2021 Euromonitor International3 2021 Euromonitor International4GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021COVID-19BASELINE / MOST LIKELYCOVID-19PESSIMISTIC 1COVID-19PESSIMISTIC 2COVID-19OPTIMISTIC 12021 Global gdp growth5.0%, 6.5%2.2%, 3.8%0.8%, 2

16、.2%6.5%, 7.5%2022 Global gdp growth3.5%, 5.5%1.0, 3.0%-2%, 0.0%5.0%, 6.8%Probability6171%1828%38%49%ASSUMPTIONSGlobal infection rate525%1535%2045%520%Infection mortality rate0.31.3%0.31.3%0.52%0.31.3%covid-19 significant social distancing effects in 2021202224 quarters36 quarters48 quarters13 quarte

17、rsNumber of covid-19 waves in 2021202212 global pandemic wave in first half of 202123 global pandemicwaves in 202120223 to 4 global pandemicwaves in 20212022.12 global pandemic wave in first half of 2021Business and consumer confidence indices over one-year horizonReturn to historic averages by Q3 2

18、0211030% below baseline forecast3060% below baseline forecastReturn to historic averages by Q2 2021Global stock prices over one-year horizon030% growth in 2021Down by 1040% relative to baselineDown by 4060% relative to baselineUp by 1040% above baselineRisky borrowing rates (private sector or emergi

19、ng market economies) relative to safest government bond interest rates over one-year horizonClose to historic averageRise by 14 percentage points above baselineRise by 26 percentage points above baselineClose to historic averagecovid-19 scenarios summarygdp growth forecasts & revisions from last qua

20、rter GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021ADVANCED ECONOMIESCOUNTRY / REGION2020 %2021 %2022 %2023 %20242028AVERAGE(F) %2021FORECAST REVISION %Percentage points2022FORECAST REVISION %Percentage pointsAdvanced Economies-4.85.03.92.41.51.00.7US-3.56.74.32.81.62.01.3Canada-5.46.24.22.51.82.20.5Eurozone-6.8

21、3.93.92.21.2-0.20.4Germany-4.93.13.82.01.1-0.20.6France-8.25.33.52.11.40.30.0Italy-8.93.74.02.20.8-0.50.5Spain-10.85.35.42.71.4-0.20.6UK-9.95.55.22.21.51.50.4Japan-4.83.02.31.40.60.70.5South Korea-0.93.43.02.52.00.40.2 2021 Euromonitor International5gdp growth forecasts & revisions from last quarter

22、 GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021EMERGING AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIESCOUNTRY / REGION2020 %2021 %2022 %2023 %20242028AVERAGE(F) %2021FORECAST REVISION %Percentage points2022FORECAST REVISION %Percentage pointsEmerging and Developing Economies-1.96.55.04.74.10.20.3China2.38.65.55.14.50.60.3India-6.99.4

23、7.67.56.1-1.10.1Indonesia-2.04.55.55.45.00.00.2Brazil-4.43.02.32.42.40.0-0.3Mexico-8.54.73.22.52.31.20.4Russia-2.92.82.62.21.60.40.4Turkey1.84.73.73.43.20.70.3 2021 Euromonitor International6GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021inflation quarterly forecastsCOUNTRY / REGION2020 %2021 %2022 %2023 %2024202

24、8AVERAGE(F) %2021FORECAST REVISION %Percentage points2022FORECAST REVISION %Percentage pointsAdvanced Economies0.71.71.71.81.90.40.1USA1.32.82.42.22.00.90.4Eurozone0.31.31.41.61.80.30.0Germany0.52.01.51.71.80.5-0.1UK0.91.72.22.12.00.30.3Japan0.00.00.40.71.00.00.0Emerging and Developing Economies3.32

25、.83.53.43.3-0.20.2China2.41.72.42.52.50.20.2India5.65.04.74.44.40.00.0Brazil3.25.54.03.73.51.50.2Russia3.44.84.03.83.81.20.3 2021 Euromonitor International7GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021central bank interest rate forecastsSource: Euromonitor International Macro ModelSource: Euromonitor Internatio

26、nal Macro ModelAdvanced Economies Interest Rate ForecastDeveloping and Emerging Countries Interest Rate Forecast201820192020202120222023202420254.03.902468 %201820192020202120222023202420253.65.00246810 % IndiaChina BrazilRussia-1012 %20182019202020212022202320242025-0.10.120182019202020212022202320

27、242025-10123 %0.10.0US Eurozone UK 2021 Euromonitor International8JapanGLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021INDICATOR2020 %2021 %2022 %2023 %20242028AVERAGE (F) %2021FORECAST REVISION %Percentage points2022FORECAST REVISION %Percentage pointsReal gdp Growth-3.56.74.32.81.62.01.3Inflation1.32.82.42.22.00

28、.90.4Federal Funds Rate0.40.10.10.21.50.00.0Real gdp growth in q1 2021 was better than expected, at an annualised rate of 6.4%. This puts economic activity in q1 at less than 1% below its level at the end of 2019. Both consumer spending and business investment experienced strong growth, putting them

29、 close to end of 2019 levels as well. Economic activity is expected to exceed end of 2019 levels in q2 2021.General outlookThe US economic outlook has continuedto improve, due to the large fiscal stimulus implemented by the Biden administration and rapid progress with coronavirus vaccinations.the us

30、 2021 Euromonitor International9GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021the usChicago, Illinois, USAReal gdp is now expected to increase by 6.7% in 2021 (two percentage points higher than the previous q1 forecast), followed by 4.3% growth in 2022. This would put US economic activity less than 0.4% below th

31、e level forecast for 2021 pre-pandemic, rising above the pre-pandemic forecast level in 2022.At the current pace of US vaccinations, US high social contact sectors should mostly normalise from covid-19 effects during the summer of 2021. The US Google Mobility report from early May shows movement in

32、retail and recreation sector locations just 3% below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting the sector has already mostly recovered from the pandemic. 2021 Euromonitor International10GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021large coronavirus-driven economic contraction in q1 2020. Industrial production growth was

33、24.5% year-on-year, while the services sectors year-on-year growth was a slower 15.6%. Exports increased by 38.7% year-on-year, sustained by the recovery in global trade.General outlookChinas economy grew by an unprecedented18.3% year-on-year in q1 2021 (up from 6.5% year-on-year growth in q4 2020).

34、 This rapid growth mainly reflects a recovery from thechinaINDICATOR2020 %2021 %2022 %2023 %20242028AVERAGE (F) %2021FORECAST REVISION %Percentage points2022FORECAST REVISION %Percentage pointsReal gdp Growth2.38.65.55.14.50.60.3Inflation2.41.72.42.52.50.20.2Central Bank Policy Rate3.93.93.94.04.00.

35、00.0 2021 Euromonitor International11GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021Beijing, Chinaa reduction in pressure on local governments to boost growth through potentially unsustainable investment or other artificial means, leaving more room for debt reduction and economic rebalancing to consumption. Fisca

36、l policy is still expected to remain accommodative in 2021, with a moderate reduction in the budget deficit. 2021 Euromonitor International12Real gdp is now expected to increase by 8.6% in 2021 (0.6 percentage points higher than in the q1 forecast) and by 5.5% in 2022, leaving 2022 economic output 0

37、.5% below the level forecast before the pandemic.The government has not stated a real gdp growth target for 2021, establishing only a minimum goal of growth above 6%. This signalschinaGLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021Indias economy continued to grow at the beginning of 2021; however, the baseline fo

38、recast anticipates an economic contraction in q2 compared to the previous quarter. The pressure derives from locally-imposed mobility restrictions in light of the escalating health crisis. Indias gdp is expected to return to growth in q3 2021 under the baseline scenario.General outlookIndias real gd

39、p growth forecast has been reviseddown for 2021, as the country struggles with rapidly rising numbers of covid-19 cases during q2 2021. After a strong economic performance at the end of 2020, India is projected to record 9.4% annual real gdp growth in 2021 and 7.6% in 2022. The baseline forecast pro

40、bability stands at 6171% in 2021.indiaINDICATOR2020 %2021 %2022 %2023 %20242028AVERAGE (F) %2021FORECAST REVISION %Percentage points2022FORECAST REVISION %Percentage pointsReal gdp Growth-6.99.47.67.56.1-1.10.1Inflation5.65.04.74.44.40.00.0Central Bank Rate4.34.04.04.35.10.00.0 2021 Euromonitor Inte

41、rnational13GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021Bangalore, Indiaindia 2021 Euromonitor International14Inflation is picking up and is predicted to reach 5.4% in q2 2021, compared with 4.3% in q1, affected by rising prices for food, beverages, clothing and footwear. Consumer price growth is to start gradu

42、ally subsiding from q4 2021 onwards. The inflation level will remain within Indias target band, which was confirmed in March 2021 at 4%, with a margin of 2% on either side for the upcoming five years.Mobility restrictions and weak consumer sentiment are behind elevated unemployment in q2 2021 (6.2%

43、in the baseline scenario). However, the government is resisting imposing a nationwide lockdown for fear of repeating thenegative effect on the economy and employment rates observed in 2020, paving the way foran optimistic outlook for gradually shrinking unemployment in q3 2021.GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECA

44、STS Q2 2021In the first half of 2021, Japans external sector has been a major driver of economic activity, underpinned by strong overseas demand for cars and electronics. The global vaccine roll-out and robust external demand from the US and China are likely to support growth in Japans manufacturing

45、 sector over 2021. Recovery in the services sector has been more subdued, due to surging covid-19 cases and the renewed state of emergency.General outlookOur baseline real gdp growth forecasts forJapan have been upgraded in q2 2021. The Japanese economy is forecast to expand by 3% in 2021 (a 0.7 per

46、centage points upgrade from the q1 forecast), followed by 2.3% growth in 2022. This baseline scenario is assigned a 6171% probability.japanINDICATOR2020 %2021 %2022 %2023 %20242028AVERAGE (F) %2021FORECAST REVISION %Percentage points2022FORECAST REVISION %Percentage pointsReal gdp Growth-4.83.02.31.

47、40.60.70.5Inflation0.00.00.40.71.00.00.0BoJ Policy Rate-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.40.00.0 2021 Euromonitor International15GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021Tokyo, JapanJapans inflation is forecast to remain muted and well below the Bank of Japans target of 2% in the coming years. As a result, the central bank

48、 is expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy stance in the medium term to keep borrowing costs low and promote economic recovery amid heightened uncertainty. 2021 Euromonitor International16The Japanese government approved a record high budget of JPY107 trillion for the 2021 fiscal year

49、to boost economic recovery. In addition, a gradually improving labour market and elevated household savings are set to support private consumption growth over 2021. However, a slow vaccination roll-out could halt the rebound in consumer confidence. Moreover, consumption prospects depend on the fate

50、of the Tokyo Olympic Games.japanGLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021The Eurozones economic recovery has been slower than expected in early 2021 due to ongoing social distancing measures, a third coronavirus wave in the spring and delays in vaccination campaigns in q1. Real gdp declined by 0.6% quarter-

51、on-quarter in q1 2021, putting the Eurozone in a technical recession.General outlookEurozone real gdp is expected to grow by 3.9%annually over 20212022. This would still leave it 3% below the pre-pandemic forecast level in 2022.the eurozoneINDICATOR2020 %2021 %2022 %2023 %20242028AVERAGE (F) %2021FO

52、RECAST REVISION %Percentage points2022FORECAST REVISION %Percentage pointsReal gdp growth-6.83.93.92.21.2-0.20.4Inflation0.31.31.41.61.80.30.0ecb Refinancing Rate0.00.00.00.00.60.00.0 2021 Euromonitor International17GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021Milan, ItalyA strong recovery is expected in the se

53、cond half of 2021, backed by the relaxation of social distancing measures in q2q3, accelerating vaccination campaigns, rising private sector confidence and high accumulated savings to spend. Stronger global export demandand fiscal support, mainly from EU recovery programmes, are also expected to boo

54、st economic growth. This baseline forecast is assigned a 6171% probability. 2021 Euromonitor International18EU covid-19 infection rates increased in March, due in large part to the spread of more infectious coronavirus variants, leading to lockdown measures extending in early spring. However, the th

55、ird Eurozone pandemic wave peaked in mid-April, and lockdown restrictions are gradually being lifted. Earlier vaccine supply bottlenecks have also been solved with new purchase agreements.the eurozoneGLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021outlook for 2021 has been revised upwards to 5.5%, owing to faster

56、relaxation of social distancing measures, higher consumer confidence and spending in q2 2021. The Bank of England is more optimistic, expecting the UKs real gdp growth to reach 7.3%, the highest in more than 70 years. This comes as the UK records stronger than initially predicted jobless figures and

57、 retail sales, including sales online.Consumption in turn should continue benefiting from high household saving rates.General outlookIn 2020, the UK economy contracted by arecord 9.9%. This was the largest economic drop the country has faced since the Great Frost of 1709 and was much deeper than in

58、2009.Euromonitor Internationals real gdp growththe ukINDICATOR2020 %2021 %2022 %2023 %20242028AVERAGE (F) %2021FORECAST REVISION %Percentage points2022FORECAST REVISION %Percentage pointsReal gdp growth-9.95.55.22.21.51.50.4Inflation1.01.72.22.12.00.30.3Bank Rate0.20.10.10.31.20.00.0 2021 Euromonito

59、r International19GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECASTS Q2 2021Edinburgh, Scotland, UKWhile high unemployment is expected to remain a major concern for the UK in 2021, the estimated rate was lowered to 5.9% for the year based on the baseline forecasts. Extension of government support for jobs primarily an extens

60、ion of the furlough scheme, which pays employees a portion of their income (up to 80% of the salary, with a maximum of gbp2,500) up until the end of September 2021 was the main factor in the positive change. 2021 Euromonitor International20Real gdp growth has been revised up by 0.4 percentage points