第七讲项目风险管理ppt课件

1、Project Risk ManagementArt Or Science?.学习提示学习内容风险与风险管理的含义工程风险管理过程风险管理方案风险识别定性的风险分析定量的风险分析风险反响方案风险的监视与控制软件的运用学习重点工程风险管理过程学习难点风险管理方案风险评价What risk is A basic dictionary definition says that risk is “the possibility of loss or injuryRisk is uncertainty that have a Negative Or positive effect on meeting

2、project objectivesNegativeRisk(1960S-1970S)A general definition(1980S-1990S)风险的属性f (probability, impact)f (threat insurance chance)certainRiskUncertain.Project risk managementProject risk management is the art and science of identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk throughout the life of a pro

3、ject and in the best interest of meeting the project objectives风险管理是对工程管理过程中如何处置风险事件的决策和控制过程工程风险管理是在工程生命期内，为了最大限制地满足工程目的，识别、分析风险并做出相应反响的艺术和科学.Risk preferenceUtilityPotential payoffRisk neutralRisk-averseRisk seekingthe amount of satisfaction or pleasure received from a potential payoff.决策过程的三种规范确定形状

4、风险不确定性Whats the difference between the crisis management and the risk management.Project management maturity by industry group and knowledge areaKEY : 1= Lowest Maturity rating 5=Highest Maturity RatingEngineering/constructiontelecommunicationsInformation systemsHi-TechmanufacturingScope3.523.453.25

5、3.37Time3.553.143.033.50Cost3.77Quality2.913.222.883.26Human resources33.18communication3.533.533.213.48risk2.932.872.752.76procurement3.333.012.913.33.It is important to note that: Risk management is an investment-there are cost associated with It. nature of the project,The e

6、xperience of the project team, constrains imposed on both Cost exceed potential benefitMinimizing potential negative riskWhile maximizing potential positive riskdependsgoalsprinciple.The major process involved in risk managementRisk management planningRisk identificationQualitative risk analysisQuan

7、titative risk analysisRisk response planningRisk monitoring and control编制风险管理方案识别风险风险的定性和定量分析编制风险应对方案风险监视与管理.谢 谢！.风险管理流程风险管理风险监控风险规划风险评价风险应对反响风险文件风险识别风险分析反响线中：虚线表示存在反响实线表示能够存在反响.风险应对方案/预备过程风险识别最高风险的清单制定风险应对战略风险应对手段的选择和分析最正确选择风险应对工具最正确实施方法论证后的风险应对方案修订最高风险的报告形状报告其他步骤的反响风险分析风险优先级和整合实施风险应对方案能够性与影响风险评价风险

8、监控和报告风险监控风险事件清单风险管理方案过程方案和控制组织和培训风险规划.Risk management planningRisk management planning is the process of deciding how to approach and plan for risk management activities for a project。A risk management plan documents the procedures for managing risk throughout the project风险管理方案编制就是决议采用何种方法进展风险管理活动并制

9、定相应方案管理过程。风险管理方案是管理整个工程生命期中的风险程序性文件.Topic addressed in a risk management planMethodology: how will risk management be performed on this project? What tools and data resources are available and applicable？Roles and responsibilities: who are the individuals responsible for implementing specific tasks

10、and providing deliverables related to risk management？Budget and schedule: what are the estimated cost and schedules for performing risk related activities？方法论：工程中的风险管理怎样被执行？可以得到的并真实可行的工具和数据资源是什么?角色和责任：谁是执行特定义务并对风险管理提供可交付性成果的个人或群体？预算和进度：执行与与风险相关的进度和估计的本钱是多少？.Topic addressed in a risk management plan

11、Risk categories: what are the main categories of risks that should be addressed on this project? Is there a risk breakdown structure for the project?Risk probability and impact: how will the probabilities and impacts of risk items be assessed? What scoring and interpretation methods will be used for

12、 the qualitative and quantitative analysis of risksRisk documenting: what reporting formats and process will be used for risk management activities.风险的种类：工程中涉及的主要风险的种类有哪些？能否编制出与WBS和OBS相应工程风险构造分解图？风险的概率和影响：风险工程发生的概率和对工程目的产生的影响如何评价？什么样的打分和解释的方法可用来定性和定量地分析工程风险？风险登记：采用怎样的报告方式和流程用来登记风险管理活动。.Project docum

13、entsCorporate risk management policiesRisk categoriesLessons-learned reports from past projectTemplates for creating a risk management planThe risk tolerances of various stakeholders A risk management plan: summarizes how risk management will be performed on a particular project.完善的风险方案要挟与灾祸应急方案与缓和方

14、案损失和破坏.不完善的风险方案要挟与灾祸应急方案与缓和方案损失和破坏.Risk IdentificationIdentifying risk is the process of understanding what potential events might hurt or enhance a particular project。风险识别是了解能够损害和加强特定工程效益的潜在风险事件的过程。Tools and techniquesThe risk register工程风险管理方案工程方案信息：任务分解构造：工程的产品描画、工程的工期和本钱估计、资源规划、采购方案、假设前提和限制条件；风险类

15、别历史资料：工程文档、公开发表的资料、工程团队成员的知识和阅历访谈法SWOT检查表法假设前提分析图示技术文件审核头脑风暴德尔菲法Identified riskstriggers.Suggestions for identifying risksBrainstorming: is a techniques for by which a group attempts to generate ideas or find a solution for a specific problem by amassing ideas spontaneously and without judgmentDelph

16、i technique is to derive a consensus among a panel of experts who make predictions about future developmentsInterviewing: is a fact-finding technique for collecting information in face-to-face, phone, , or instant-messaging discussions.The Risk RegisterA risk register is a document that contains res

17、ults of various risk management process, often displayed in a table or spreadsheet format. It is a tool for documenting potential risk events and related information。Risk events refer to specific, uncertain events that may occur to the detriment or enhancement of the project风险登记表是一种记录各种风险管理过程结果的文件，通

18、常以表格的方式给出，是用来描画潜在风险事件和相关信息的文件风险事件是指那些特定的能够对工程产生有利或不利影响的不确定事件.Sample Risk RegisterNORANKRISKDESCRIPTIONCATEGORYROOT CAUSETRIGGERSPOTENTIAL RESPONSESRISK OWERPROBABILITYIMPACTSTATUSR441R212.Qualitative Risk AnalysisProbability/impactMatrix or chartTop ten item trackingExpert judgment.Sample probabilit

19、y/impact Matrixrisk6risk9Risk1risk4Risk3risk7Risk2Risk5risk11Risk8risk10risk12highmediumlowhighmediumlowimpactprobability.LowriskMediumriskHighrisk.Top ten risk item tracking: it maintains an awareness of risks through out of the life of a project. MONTHLY RANKINGRISK EVENRANK THIS MONTHRANK LAST MO

20、NTHNUMBER OF MONTH IN TOP TENRISK RESOLUTION PROGRESSInadequate planning124Working on revising the entire project management planPoor definition233Holding meetings with project customer and sponsor or to clarify scopeAbsence of leadership312After previous project manager quiet, assigned a new one to

21、 lead a project.Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Exampledecision probability0.10.7$300,000-$40,000-$50,000-$20,000$60,000=+$60,000-$32,000-$10,000-$2,000$42,000Project 1Project 2outcome=EMVPROJECT1S EMV=$60,00-$32,000=$28,000Project 2,s EMA=-$10,000-$2,000+$42,000=$30,000.SIMULATIONA more soph

22、isticated quantitative risk analysis technique is simulation, simulation uses a representation or model of a system to analyze the expected behavior or performance of the system.Most simulations are based on some form of Monte Carlo analysis.风险的定性分析风险的定量分析定义定性风险分析是评估已识别风险的影响和可能性的过程。这一过程按风险对项目目标可能的影响

23、对风险进行排序。定量风险分析过程的目标是量化分析每一风险的概率及其对项目目标造成的后果，也分析项目总体风险的程度作用与目的识别具体风险和指导风险应对；根据各风险对于项目目标的潜在影响对风险进行排序通过比较风险值确定风险总体级别。测定某一特定项目目标的概率；量化项目的风险影响，决定项目可能需要的成本和时间的应急储备；通过量化各风险对项目目标的影响程度，赠别出最需要关注的风险相互联系风险的定量分析一般在风险的定性分析之后进行。风险的定性分析与风险的定量分析可以分别单独使用，也可以一起使用，这决定于项目的时间、预算的要求和风险以及影响对风险性定量说明的需要。.需要提供的信息和依据风险管理计划已识别的

24、风险项目状态项目类型数据精确性概率范围及后果假设前提风险管理计划已识别的风险风险优先次序清单历史信息专家判断其他计划编制的输出运用的方法与工具访谈概率/影响风险等级评分矩阵专家判断法十大风险项目跟踪风险概率和影响敏感性分析决策树分析模拟（蒙特卡罗分析）分析的结果项目总体风险等级项目优先次序清单需进一步分析和管理的风险清单风险定性分析结果中反映的趋势。经量化的风险优先次序清单项目概率分析完成成本和时间目标的概率定量分析结果中反映的趋势.风险应对方案的编制概念：针对已识别的风险制定行动方案和确定行动措施的过程，其目的在于添加实现工程目的的时机，减少对工程的要挟。这一过程包括确定和分派相应的人员和单

25、位担任每项风险应对措施，保证已识别的风险可以得到适宜的处置。.工程风险应对方案risk register)序号风险事件风险的影响应对策略具体应对措施负责人.Risk Response Planning The basic response strategies for negative risk:Risk avoidanceRisk acceptanceRisk transferenceRisk mitigationThe basic response strategies for positive risks:Risk exploitationRisk sharingRisk enhance

26、mentRisk acceptance.风险应对战略躲避风险：经过变卦工程方案，从而消除风险和产生风险的条件，或者维护工程的目的免受风险的影响。如减少工程范围、延伸工期、采用成熟的技术、防止运用缺乏阅历的承包商。转移风险：设法将风险的结果连同对风险应对的权益转让给第三方。转移风险需求付出相应的本钱包括：保险费、履约保证金、担保费用等。缓解风险：采取一定措施将某一负面风险影响事件的概率和其后果将地道到一种可以接受的限制。缓解风险应留意本钱收益的比较，保证风险管理投资的合理性。接受风险：当某一风险的影响在可接受的范围之内，或者工程团队没能找到其他适宜的风险应对战略时，不改动原有方案去应对某一风险。

27、采用接受风险的战略需求制定：应急方案contingency plan), 退却方案fallback plan)、应急补助和贮藏contingency allowance。 .Risk Monitoring And ControlRisk monitoring and control involves executing the risk management processes to respond to risk evens.Executing the risk management process means ensuring that risk awareness is an ongoi

28、ng activity performed by the entire project team throughout the entire project.Reassessment, risk audits, varianceAnd trend analysis, technical performance measurements, reserve analysis,And status meetings or periodic risk reviews such as The top ten risk item tracking method Tools and technicalReq

29、uested changes, Recommended corrective and preventive actions, And updates to the risk register, project management plan, Organizational process assets, such as lessons-learned information that might help future projectoutput.风险监控风险的监控就是对工程的风险进展监视和控制，包括：跟踪已识别的风险、监视剩余风险和识别新的风险；保证风险管理方案和风险应对方案的执行和实施；评

30、价这些方案对于递减风险的有效性工程风险监视和控制包括在整个工程过程中.风险监控的目的风险应对方案能否有效实施？风险应对措施能否有效？工程假设前提能否依然成立；风险暴露程度与以前的情况相比能否发生变化，如发生，做出趋势分析；某一风险触发器/征兆能否曾经发生；适当的组织政策和管理程序能否得到服从；能否有新的风险.风险监控的方法与措施建立风险数据库；定期对工程风险进展审核；完善风险管理责任制度。.Broad categories of risks might include:MarketriskFinancialriskTechnology riskPeople riskStructure/proc

31、essrisk.Sample risk breakdown structureIT ProjectCompetitionsuppliersCash flowHardwaresoftwarenetworkExecutive supportuser supportteam supportestimatecommunicationresourceProject managementTechnicalBusinessOrganizational.每一阶段的典型风险事件全生命期四个阶段工程同意工程初始方案和详细方案执行终了缺乏主要专家问题定义不明确无可行性研讨目的不明确购买经过竞标无风险管理方案方案草率缺乏准确参数传播不准确角色定义不明确团队缺乏阅历员工缺乏技艺资料可获得性罢工天气范围变卦进度变卦管理制度要求无顺应的控制系统质量差客户不接受基建规模更改现金流动问题总体工程风险风险投资总额.Potential negative risk conditions associated with ea