2020Q4中国贸易季刊

1、In This Issue:Part 1: Domestic TradeRecent developmentsPolicy updates and outlookPart 2: Foreign TradeRecent developmentsHighlightsOutlookHelen ChinVice PresidentE: HYPERLINK mailto:helenchin helenchinWilliam KongSenior Research Manager3E: HYPERLINK mailto:williamkong williamkong10Fung Business Inte

2、lligence1/F LiFung Tower888 Cheung Sha Wan Road Kowloon, Hong KongT: (852) 2300 247011F: (852) 2635 1598E: HYPERLINK mailto:fbicgroup fbicgroup17W: HYPERLINK / 19Part One: Domestic TradeRecent developmentsChinas economic recovery picks up speed in 4Q20Chinas real GDP growth accelerated from 4.9% yoy

3、 in 3Q20 to 6.5% yoy in 4Q20, the fastest pace in more than two years (see exhibit 1). Overall, Chinas nominal GDP amounted to 101.6 trillion yuan in 2020, up by 2.3% yoy in real terms. China was the only major economy to record economic growth in 2020.Exhibit 1: Chinas real GDP growth and forecasts

4、, 1Q20 to 1Q21FY191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q21F 6.1%-6.8%3.2%4.9%6.5%18.0%6.51Q202Q203Q204Q201Q2120.0yoy growth (%)15.010.0With Chinas private consumption further catching up with the strong rebound inproduction, and given a low comparison base inthe same period last year,we predict Chinas real GDP growth t

5、o reach 18. 0% in 1 Q21.We project strong growthof over 8.0% for theChinese economy in 2021 as a whole, boosted by a full recovery in domestic demand and a betterglobal environment.5.00.0-5.0-10.0Source: National Bureau of Statistics, PRCGrowth in retail sales further recovers in 4Q20Chinas total re

6、tail sales of consumer goods were up by 4.6% yoy in 4Q20, compared with 0.9% yoy in 3Q20. In 2020, Chinas total retail sales of consumer goods reached39.2 trillion yuan, down by 3.9% yoy (see exhibits 2, 3 and 4).Exhibit 2: Chinas total retail sales, year-on-year nominal growth, January 2019 to Dece

7、mber 2020FY19Jan-Feb 20MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec8.0%-20.5%-15.8%-7.5%-2.8%-1.8%-1.1%0.5%3.3%4.3%5.0%4.6%10.05.0Amid a rebound inCOVID-19 cases in early 2021, migrant workers have been discouragedfrom travelling back home for the ChineseNew Year, which couldhurt retail sales. Still, we predict t

8、hat the growthin retail sales will top25.0 % yoy in 1 Q21 due to a low comparison base in the same period lastyear.yoy growth (%)Jan 19Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 20Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0We expect that therevival of consumerconfidenc

9、e and therollout of consumption- boosting measures will push retail sales growth to 12. 0% yoy in 2021 .Source: National Bureau of Statistics, PRCExhibit 3: Chinas total retail sales, month-on-month nominal growth,July to December 2020mom growth (%), seasonally adjustedJul 20AugSepOctNovDecTotal ret

10、ail sales0.601.404.110.821.551.24Source: National Bureau of Statistics, PRCNominal growth, yoy (%)FY191Q201H201-3Q20FY20Total retail sales8.0-19.0-11.4-7.2-3.9Goods7.9-15.8-8.7-5.1-2.3Sales by enterprises above designated size3.9-18.9-9.0-4.4-1.0Online sales19.55.914.315.314.8Catering services9.4-44

11、.3-32.8-23.9-16.6Exhibit 4: Chinas total retail sales, 2019 to 2020Source: National Bureau of Statistics, PRCImpact of the COVID-19 outbreak on differenttypes of consumptionwas not uniform. While catering services sales fell amid the threat of COVID-19, online retailsales of goods bucked the trend t

12、o post stronggrowth as people avoidedgoing out and turned toonline shopping.Exhibit 5: Chinas retail sales by enterprises above designated size, by product,2019 to 2020Nominal growth, yoy (%)FY191Q201H201-3Q20FY20Grain, oil and food10.212.612.910.69.9Beverages12.314.0Tobacco and liquor7.4

13、-14.0-Garments, footwear, hats and textiles2.9-32.2-19.6-12.4-6.6Cosmetics12.6-13.2-Gold, silver and jewellery0.4-37.7-23.6-12.5-4.7Commodities for daily use13.9-7.5Home appliances & audio/video equipment5.6-29.9-12.2-8.0-3.8Traditional Chinese and Western medicines9.02.95

14、.86.27.8Cultural and office appliances3.3-5.8Furniture5.1-29.3-14.1-9.9-7.0Communication appliances8.5-12.9Petroleum and related products1.2-23.5-18.4-16.7-14.5Automobiles-0.8-30.3-15.2-6.3-1.8Building and decoration materials2.8-23.9-11.0-7.5-2.8Source: National Bureau of Statisti

15、cs, PRCIn 2020, basic consumerstaples such asbeverages and grain, oil and food still managed to post respectable salesgrowth. Meanwhile, retailsales of consumerdiscretionary items suchas garments, footwear,hats, knitwear and gold, silver and jewellerydropped. It is noteworthy thatcommunication appli

16、ances andcosmetics recorded thefastest retail sales growth in 4Q20 .Industrial production grows at fast pace in 4Q20Chinas industrial production, measured by the value-added of industrial output (VAIO) of industrial enterprises above designated size1, rose by a better-than-expected 7.1% yoy in 4Q20

17、(see exhibit 6). Overall, Chinas industrial production expanded by 2.8% yoy in 2020.Exhibit 6: Chinas industrial production growth, January 2019 to December 2020We expect that ChinasJan-Feb20MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec-13.5%-1.1%3.9%4.4%4.8%4.8%5.6%6.9%6.9%7.0%7.3%industrial production growth wil

18、l top 25.0 % yoy in 1 Q21 , given an improving demand,10.0yoy growth (%)5.0Jan 19Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 20Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0.0-5.0-10.0order shifts fromalternative production countries, a large share of migrant workerschoosing not to travel back hom

19、e for theChinese New Year, and a low comparison base last year.-15.0Source: National Bureau of Statistics, PRC1 Industrial enterprises above designated size refer to industrial enterprises with annual revenue of 20 million yuan or more.Fixed asset investment continues to grow in 4Q20The nominal grow

20、th of Chinas fixed asset investment (FAI) (excluding rural households) accelerated from 0.8% yoy in 1-3Q20 to 2.9% in 2020. Overall, Chinas FAI (excluding rural households) amounted to 51.9 trillion yuan in 2020 (see exhibit 7).Exhibit 7: Chinas FAI (excluding rural households) growth, July to Decem

21、ber 2020Year-to-date, yoy growth %Jul 20AugSepOctNovDecFAI (excluding rural households)-1.6-2.62.9Manufacturing sector-10.2-8.1-6.5-5.3-3.5-2.2Infrastructure (excluding power, heat, gas and water infrastructure)-1.0-1.00.9Real estate developmentSource: National Bu

22、reau of Statistics, PRCWe expect that the strong export performance and higher industrial pricesthis year will buoy investment in themanufacturing sector, which will take the lead in boosting Chinas FAI in 2021.Growth in M2 and outstanding RMB loans slowsBoth the broad money supply (M2) and the tota

23、l outstanding RMB loans have grown at a slower pace recently, indicating a moderation in credit growth (see exhibit 8 & 9).Exhibit 8: Broad money supply (M2) and RMB loans, January to December 2020Broad money supply (M2)Total outstanding RMB loansAs ofAmount (trillion yuan)yoy growthAmount (trillion

24、 yuan)yoy growthEnd-Jan 20202.38.4%156.512.1%End-Feb203.18.8%157.412.1%End-Mar208.110.1%160.212.7%End-Apr209.411.1%161.913.1%End-May210.011.1%163.413.2%End-Jun213.511.1%165.213.2%End-Jul212.610.7%166.213.0%End-Aug213.710.4%167.513.0%End-Sep216.410.9%169.413.0%End-Oct215.010.5%170.112.9%End-Nov217.21

25、0.7%171.512.8%End-Dec218.710.1%172.812.8%Source: Peoples Bank of ChinaExhibit 9: Increase in RMB loans, 2019 to 2020 Increase in RMB loans (trillion yuan)FY1916.88FY2020.03Jan 203.34Feb0.91Mar2.85Apr1.70May1.48Jun1.81Jul0.99Aug1.28Sep1.63Oct0.69Nov1.43Dec1.26Source: Peoples Bank of ChinaWith Chinas

26、recoverypicking up pace, its monetary policy isshifting from crediteasing to normalization. However, we believe that the process will begradual and the easing in credit growth will bemoderate.Yi Gang, Governor of the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC), said in January that Chinas monetary policy would be

27、stable, and that liquidity would be kept reasonably sufficient in 2021. Growth rates of M2 money supply and aggregate financing should match that of nominal GDP. He also added that the central bank will seek to balance supporting economic growth and containing risksPMI indicates growth moderation in

28、 manufacturing sectorChinas manufacturing PMI rose from 51.7 in October to 52.1 in November, and then retreated to 51.9 in December and 51.3 in January. The decline in headline PMI readings in the last couple of months indicates growth moderation in the manufacturing sector. (See exhibit 10)Producti

29、on activities have expanded at a slower pace in recent months, as the output index fell from 54.7 in November to 53.5 in January. The slower expansion was mainly attributed to a moderation in growth in overall new orders: The new orders index dropped from 53.9 in November to 52.3 in January.Prices o

30、f industrial products have continued to increase: The ex-factory prices index rose from 53.2 in October to 58.9 in December, and stayed high at 57.2 in January. The jump in product prices was partly attributed to the surge in the prices of materials: The input prices index went up from 58.8 in Octob

31、er to 68.0 in December, before retreating to67.1 in January.The business expectations index went down from 60.1 in October to 57.9 in January. Nevertheless, the latest index reading was still well above the critical 50-mark, indicating that purchasing managers in China were still optimistic about th

32、e near-term outlook for their respective industries.Chinas manufacturingPMI came in at 51. 3 inJanuary, indicating thatthe manufacturing sector has continued to recover, albeit at a slower pace.Growth in production activities slowed alongwith growth moderation in new orders. Prices of industrial pro

33、ductscontinued to rise, due partly to the jump in prices of materials.Exhibit 10: Chinas manufacturing PMI at a glance, January 2021IndexSeasonally adjusted indexIndex compared with the previous monthDirectionPMI51.3Lower ExpandingOutput53.5Lower ExpandingNew Orders52.3Lower ExpandingNew Export Orde

34、rs50.2Lower ExpandingBacklogs of Orders47.3Higher ContractingStocks of Finished Goods49Higher ContractingPurchases of Inputs52Lower ExpandingImports49.8Lower ContractingInput Prices67.1Lower RisingEx-factory Prices57.2Lower RisingStocks of Major Inputs49.0Higher ContractingEmployment48.4Lower Contra

35、ctingSuppliers Delivery Time48.8Lower SlowingBusiness Expectations57.9Lower OptimisticSource: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing; National Bureau of Statistics, PRCLooking ahead, we predict that themanufacturing PMI will fluctuate within 51.0 to 52.0 in the next fewmonths, pointing to a stab

36、le recovery of the manufacturing sector and the economy.NMI indicates slower recovery in non-manufacturing sectorChinas Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index, which is quoted as the Non- manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (NMI), went down from 56.4 in November to52.4 in January (see exhibit

37、 11). The index readings indicate that the recovery in the non-manufacturing sector has decelerated lately.The new orders index continuously declined from 53.0 in October to 48.7 in January. The latest index reading indicates a fall in new orders.The sales prices index rose above the critical 50-mar

38、k in November and stayed above51.0 since then, meaning that enterprises have raised their service charges recently. Meanwhile, the input prices index went up from 50.9 in October to 54.5 in January, indicating that input prices have increased at a faster pace lately.The business expectation index co

39、ntinuously declined from 62.9 in October to 55.1 in January, suggesting that purchasing managers in the non-manufacturing sector have become relatively less optimistic about the near-term outlook for their respective industries.We expect that Chinasnon-manufacturingsector will continue torecover and

40、 that the NMI will fluctuate within 52. 0 to 54. 0 in the next fewmonths.Exhibit 11: Chinas Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (NMI) at a glance, January 2021IndexSeasonally adjusted indexIndex compared with the previous monthDirectionBusiness activity52.4Lower ExpandingNew orders48.7Lower

41、ContractingInput prices54.5Higher RisingSales prices51.4Higher RisingBusiness expectations55.1Lower OptimisticSource: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing; National Bureau of Statistics, PRCPolicy updates and outlookChina outlines economic tasks for 2021The Central Economic Work Conference, a

42、meeting which sets the tone for the economic tasks this year, was held on 16-18 December last year. According to a statement released after the meeting2, the Chinese government will continue to pursue a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. It also pledged to maintain necessary poli

43、cy support for the economy and avoid sudden policy shifts. The proactive fiscal policy must be implemented in a manner that is of higher quality, more effective and more sustainable, and the intensity of expenditure must be maintained to strengthen the financial support for major national strategic

44、tasks. Meanwhile, the prudent monetary policy must be pursued in a more flexible, tailored and appropriate way, with steps to ensure a stable macro leverage ratio.In addition, the conference stressed the importance of expanding domestic demand and demand-side management, reflecting an increasing foc

45、us on demand. Approaches will include creating jobs, improving social security, reforming income distribution, fostering the middle class, and increasing public spending.China issues notice to expand rural consumptionOn 5 January, the Ministry of Commerce, National Development and Reform Commission

46、and 10 other government departments issued a notice on measures for boosting the consumption of bulk commodities and in key sectors to tap the potential of rural consumption.3 The circular outlines five tasks:Stabilising and expanding automobile consumption by launching a new round of automobile sal

47、es promotion and trade-ins in rural areas.Promoting the consumption of electrical appliances, furniture and home decorations by encouraging the phasing-out of old appliances and furniture and the purchase of green smart appliances, and providing subsidies for environment-friendly furniture.Boosting

48、catering consumption, and promoting the development of green catering and O2O catering.Strengthening areas of weakness in rural consumption by improving the rural circulation system, upgrading agricultural supply chains and promoting lifestyle services in rural areas.Reinforcing policy support and i

49、mproving policies and measures to help enterprises.In our view, the relativelyloose macro policy adopted last year will start to return to normal in 2021, but theprocess should be gradual, as the Chinese government has pledged no suddenpolicy shifts.The notice underlinesthe need to promoteconsumptio

50、n upgrade in rural areas to boostdomestic consumption. It is noteworthy that theannounced tasks focus not only on spending on goods, but also onservices.2 HYPERLINK /politics/leaders/2020-12/18/c_1126879325.htm /politics/leaders/2020-12/18/c_1126879325.htm3 HYPERLINK /xinwen/2021-01/05/content_55773

51、24.htm /xinwen/2021-01/05/content_5577324.htmPart Two: Foreign TradeA. Recent developments1. China ends 2020 with historically strong export performanceIn 2020, Chinas exports climbed 3.6% yoy to a record high of US$2,590.6 billion, while its imports fell by 1.1% yoy to US$2,055.6 billion (see exhib

52、its 12, 13 and 14). Monthly exports in November and December were also record highs.Exhibit 12: Chinas quarterly foreign trade data, 1Q20 to 4Q20ExportsImportsTrade BalanceAmount (USD billion)yoy growthAmount (USD billion)yoy growthAmount (USD billion)FY202,590.63.6%2,055.6-1.1%535.01Q20476.6-13.6%4

53、64.2-3.1%12.42Q20618.9-0.2%465.1-9.9%153.83Q20710.08.4%552.92.9%157.14Q20785.216.7%573.45.0%211.7Source: China CustomsExhibit 13: Chinas monthly foreign trade data, January to December 2020ExportsImportsTrade BalanceAmount (USD billion)yoy growthAmount (USD billion)yoy growthAmount (USD billion)Janu

54、ary 2020211.6-2.9%156.9-12.7%54.7February80.4-40.6%142.57.7%-62.1March184.6-6.9%164.8-1.3%19.8April199.53.1%154.6-14.4%44.9May206.5-3.5%143.9-16.7%62.6June212.90.2%166.62.3%46.3July236.96.8%175.0-1.6%61.9August234.49.1%176.0-2.3%58.5September238.79.4%202.012.7%36.8October236.210.9%178.24.4%58.1Novem

55、ber267.020.6%191.53.9%75.5December281.918.1%203.86.5%78.2Source: China CustomsGiven a continuedimprovement in external demand, we areoptimistic about thenear-term prospects ofChinas exports.Combined with a lowcomparison base in thesame period last year, weforecast that Chinas exports will surge by 3

56、0. 0% yoy in 1Q21.Exhibit 14: Growth rates of exports and imports, January 2019 to December 202030.020.0yoy growth (%)10.0Jan 19Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 20Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec0.0-10.0-20.0-30.0-40.0-50.0ExportsImportsSource: China CustomsExhibit 15: Expor

57、ts by category, 2019 to 2020yoy growth (%) of export value, in USD20191H201-3Q202020Textile yarn, fabrics and textile products0.927.833.729.2Garments and clothing accessories-4.0-19.4-10.4-6.4Footwear1.7-30.2-25.3-21.2Toys24.2-12.1-1.97.5Furniture and parts0.8-11.62.311.8Lighting fittings and parts9

58、.6-6.56.314.3Suitcases and handbags0.5-30.2-27.2-24.2Refined oil7.0-15.1-28.3-33.7Steel-11.3-18.7-20.4-15.4Mechanical and electrical products-0.1-Source: China CustomsThe strong increase intextile exports in 2020 was driven by a surge inoverseas demand for face masks, which had anexport val

59、ue of US$50 billion from March to December 2020 alone.Exhibit 16: Imports by category, 2019 to 2020The drop in Chinasimports in 2020 was ledby a decrease in theyoy growth (%) of import value, in USD20191H201-3Q202020Soybeans-7.212.711.811.8Iron ores33.610.29.517.4Crude oil0.4-23.0-22.9-27.3Steel-14.

60、1-0.318.017.4Textile yarn, fabrics and textile products-12.1-11.4-11.4-10.2Vehicles and vehicle chassis-4.3-12.1-17.6-4.2Integrated circuits-14.6Plastics-5.5-9.9-5.1-1.6import value of crude oil.However, the decrease was driven by a fall in crude oil prices ratherthan import quantities: C