产业结构和经济稳定外文翻译

1、产业结构和经济稳定外文翻译本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目：Industrialstructureandeconomicstability出处：Appliedeconomicletters作者：SherrillShaffer原文：Motivatedbypriorresultspredictingcontrastinglinkagesbetweenindustrialstructureandeconomicstability,wepresentexploratoryempiricalevidenceonthisimportantissue.Consistentwiththeturnoverhypot

2、hesis,wefindthatemploymentgrewmoresteadilywherebusinessestablishmentsinallsectorswerelarger,suggestinganoffsettingbenefittothefirst-momentcostsofestablishmentsizeidentifiedbypreviousresearch.Consistentwiththejob-matchinghypothesis,wefindthatemploymentgrewmoresteadilywheremoreestablishmentspercapitao

3、peratedinallsectors.Similarbutlessconsistentresultswerealsofoundregardingthestabilityofincomegrowth.IntroductionandBackgroundThefundamentalimportanceofeconomicperformancehasspawnedanextensiveliteratureontheempiricaldeterminantsofeconomicgrowthseeRajanandZingales,1998;Levineetal.,2000forprominentexam

4、ples.OnerecentdiscoveryisthatcommunitiesorlocalregionstendtoexperiencemorerapidgrowthofincomeoremploymentwherebusinessesaresmallerShaffer,2002,2006a,b.Aseparatestrandofresearch,meanwhile,hasdemonstratedtheimportanceofstudyingthevolatilityofgrowthratesratherthanmerelytheirmeansRameyandRamey,1995;Kurz

5、,2004;Ismihan,2005;Bekaertetal.,2006.ItisrelevantinthisregardthatseveralstudiesDavisandHaltiwanger,1992;Rob,1995;Davisetal.,1996havefoundthatjobsatsmallerfirmstendtobelesspermanentthanatlargerfirms;whileIlmakunnasetal.2005havesuggestedthatsuchturnovermayactuallybeonereasonforfasterproductivitygrowth

6、,anunexploredimplicationisthatthevolatilitywherebusinessesaresmallertheConversely,heterogeneityfallibilitycanresultingreaterofemploymentandincomemaybehigher(turnoverhypothesis'.amongdecision-makersduetohumanvariabilityofeconomicperformanceinmorecentralizeddecisionprocessesSah,1991;SahandStiglitz

7、,1991;AlmeidaandFerreira,2002,possiblysuggestingthatalocaleconomymayexhibitgreaterstabilitywheretheaveragefirmsaresmallerormorenumerous.Asimilaroutcomeispredictedtotheextentthatacentralizeddecisionprocessesarelesssuccessfulatmanagingconflictandbdistributionalconflictsimpairefficientadjustmentstoexog

8、enousshocksRodrik,1999;AlmeidaandFerreira,2002.Inviewofthesecontrastingconsiderations,animportantempiricalquestioniswhetherestablishmentsizeandothermeasuresofindustrialstructuremaybesystematicallyassociatedwithsecondmomentmeasuresofeconomicperformance.Thisarticleaccordinglypresentspreliminaryevidenc

9、eoflinkagesbetweenselectedmeasuresofindustrialstructureandthevolatilityoflocalincomeandemploymentgrowthrates.Weusethreemeasuresofindustrialstructure,eachdistinguishedbybroadsector.AsinShaffer2002,wemeasureaverageestablishmentsizebynumberofemployeesand,alternatively,bydollarsofvalueadded,shipmentsorr

10、eceipts.Wealsolookatestablishmentspercapita,motivatedbytwoopposingconsiderations.Findinganewjobshouldbeeasierinamarketwithmoreemployersinagivensector,leadingtomorestablelevelsorgrowthratesofincomeandemploymentthe'job-matchinghypothesis'.But,ceterisparibus,smallerfirmswilltendtopermitthecoexi

11、stenceoflargernumbersoffirms,inwhichcasethedocumentedemploymentturnoveratsmallerfirmsdiscussedabovewilltendtooffsetthestabilizingbenefitofmorenumerousfirms.Eachofourmeasuresofindustrialstructureiscompiledseparatelyforthemanufacturing,wholesale,retailandservicesectors.Werelatethesemeasuresofstructure

12、totwosecond-momentmeasuresofeconomicperformance,theSDofannualrealpercapitaincomegrowthratesandtheSDoftheannualgrowthrateoftotalestablishmentemployment.Theresultscontributetotwoseparatestrandsoftheliterature,onempiricalcovariateswithgrowthvolatilityandonmacroeconomiceffectsofestablishmentsizeandother

13、measuresofindustrialstructure.Wefindforallsectorsthatlargerestablishmentsandmoreestablishmentspercapitaareassociatedwithmorestableemploymentgrowthrates,consistentwiththeturnoverandjob-matchinghypotheses.Thesamelinkagesarefoundforsomebutnotallofthesectorswithregardtothevolatilityofgrowthratesinrealpe

14、rcapitaincome.Thenextsectionintroducestheempiricalmodelandthesample.SectionIIIpresentstheresults,whileSectionIVconcludes.TheModelandSampleWeembedourkeyvariablesinastandardlinearempiricalgrowthequation,1WhereYisameasureofeconomicperformanceasdiscussedabove,isanestimatedinterceptterm,sisameasureofindu

15、strialstructureasdiscussedabove,xisavectorofcontrolvariablesdiscussedbelow,andareestimatedcoefficientsandisastochasticerrorterm.AsinBekaertetal.2006,ourSDsofeconomicgrowthratesaremeasuredovera5-yearperiod.Asinpriorstudiesofeconomicgrowth,thecontrolvectorincludesthenaturallogarithmofpopulation,theden

16、sityofpopulationpersquaremileoflandarea,ameasureofeducationandinitialmedianhouseholdincome.PopulationisameasureofmarketsizeasinCetorelliandGambera2001.ItisalsosimilartothetotallaborforcevariableusedinOhuallachainandSatterthwaite1992andcanbeinterpretedasmeasuringurbanizationeconomies.Ifjob-matchingoc

17、cursmorequicklyorefficientlyinmorepopulousareas,thentheestimatedcoefficientonthisvariableshouldbenegativeanotherimplicationofthejob-matchinghypothesisintroducedabove.Populationdensityhasbeenfoundsignificantlyrelatedtoseveralfirst-momentmeasuresofeconomicperformance,possiblyduetoscaleeffectsortosuper

18、iormatchingbetweenfirmsandworkersindensermarketsCicconeandHall,1996;Anderssonetal.,2004;Carlinoetal.,2007;Strumskyetal.,2005.Ifthesebenefitsinfluenceeconomicstability,asonemightexpect,thentheestimatedcoefficientonpopulationdensityshouldbenegativeinourmodel.Educationismeasuredasthepercentageofpopulat

19、ionaged25andoverwhohavecompletedhighschool,andreflectstheaccumulatedlevelofhumancapital.ItissimilartomeasuresusedinpreviousstudiesofeconomicgrowthsuchasRajanandZingales1998,Levineetal.2000andCetorelliandGambera2001,withtheoreticallinkagestoaveragegrowthratesexploredbyTeles2005.Arelatedmeasureofeduca

20、tionhasbeenusedinatleastonestudyofgrowthvolatilityBekaertetal.,2006.Inaddition,educationwasfoundtobepositivelyassociatedwithsectoralemploymentgrowthinUSmetropolitanareasbyOhuallachainandSatterthwaite1992.Ifeducationcontributestoeconomicstabilityaswell,itsestimatedcoefficientinourregressionsshouldben

21、egative.Initialmedianhouseholdincomecanreflectaconvergenceeffectinfirst-momentmeasuresofeconomicperformance,asnotedbyBarroandSala-i-Martin1992.Thesamelogicwouldnotapplytosecond-momentmeasuresofeconomicperformance,renderingthesignandsignificanceoftheestimatedcoefficientonthisvariableanopenempiricalqu

22、estion.However,asimilarvariableinitialpercapitaGDPhasbeenusedinatleastonepriorstudyofgrowthvolatilityBekaertetal.,2006.Table1summarizesthedata.Oursamplecomprisesmorethan2000USnonmetropolitancounties,measuringeconomicperformanceduring1991?1995andstructuremeasuresasof1987.Metropolitanareasareexcludedb

23、ecausetheirbordersaregenerallynotcoterminouswithindividualcounties,confoundingmeasurementproblemsforvariablesdrawnfromcounty-leveldata.Thoughnotreportedinthetable,thepairwisecorrelationcoefficientsbetweenaverageestablishmentsizeandestablishmentspercapitarangedbetween-0.21and0.18,andwerejust-0.07inth

24、ewholesalesectorand0.07inthemanufacturingsector.Thesesmallandhighlyvariablecorrelationsindicatethatthetwocategoriesofstructurevariablesreflectstatisticallyseparatedimensionsofindustrialstructureinoursample.Theselectionofperformancedataasofseveralyearsfollowingthestructuredatahelpstoreducethelikeliho

25、odofreversecausalityalthough,commontoallempiricalgrowthstudies,causalitycannotbedefinitivelyestablished.Thislagstructurealsominimizesthepotentialforendogeneitybias,astheregressorsarepredetermined.ResultsTable2reportstheregressionestimatesfortheSDofrealpercapitaincomegrowthrates,whileTable3reportsest

26、imatesfortheSDofemploymentgrowthrates.Asindustrialstructureismeasuredinthreewaysforeachoffoursectors,eachtablereports12regressions.Duetomissingorzeroestablishmentdataforafewcountiesineachsector,thevariousregressionsutilizeslightlydifferingnumbersofobservations,asreportedinthetables.Thesignificancele

27、velsarecomputedfromSEscorrectedforheteroscedasticity.InTable2,thevariousstructuremeasuresarestatisticallysignificantineightofthe12regressions.Percapitaincomeisfoundtogrowmoresteadilywheremanufacturing,retailandwholesaleestablishmentsemploymoreworkers,orwherewholesaleestablishmentsarelargerasmeasured

28、byvalueofannualshipments.Thesefindingsareconsistentwiththeturnoverhypothesisdiscussedabove.Conversely,steadiergrowthisseenwherewholesaleestablishmentsemployfewerworkersorincountieswithfewerwholesaleestablishmentspercapitaormoremanufacturingestablishmentspercapita.Thecontrastingestimatesforthewholesa

29、lesectormayreflectnonlinearitiesintheunderlyingrelationships,anissuebeyondthescopeofthisstudy.Thesefindingsindicatethatindustrialstructureissystematicallyrelatedtothevolatilityofincomegrowthrates,inwaysthatarelargelyconsistentbutthatdovarysomewhatacrossmajorsectors.ThefitoftheequationsinTable2ismode

30、st,withadjustedR2rangingfrom0.3tonearly0.5.Thecontrolvariablesaremostlysignificantatthe0.01level.Initialmedianhouseholdincomeisneversignificant,incontrasttothesignificanceofinitialpercapitaGDPfoundinseveralcross-countryregressionsonconsumptiongrowthvolatilitybyBekaertetal.2006.Incomeisfoundtogrowmor

31、esteadilyinmorepopulouscounties.Populationdensityandeducationarefoundtocontributetohighervolatilityofpercapitaincomegrowthrates,thougheducationlosesitssignificancewhencontrollingforwholesaleestablishmentspercapita.Thesignoftheeducationvariablecontrastswiththatfoundincross-countryspecificationsbyBeka

32、ertetal.2006.InTable3,thevariousstructuremeasuresareagainstatisticallysignificantineightofthe12regressions.Employmentisseentogrowmoresteadilywheretherearemoreestablishmentspercapitainanyofthefoursectors,consistentwiththejob-matchinghypothesis.Inaddition,steadieremploymentgrowthoccurredwherewholesale

33、orserviceestablishmentsemploymoreworkers,orwhereretailorserviceestablishmentshavealargeraveragedollarvolumeofbusiness,consistentwiththeturnoverhypothesis.Theselatterfindingsindicatethatthebenefitsofjoblongevityatlargerfirmsmorethanoffsetthevolatilitytheoreticallypredictedbymorecentralizeddecision-ma

34、king,asdiscussedabove.ThefitoftheseequationsislesstightthaninTable2,withadjustedR2around0.1.Populationdensityisneversignificantbuttheothercontrolvariablesareconsistentlysignificant.Employmentgrowsmoresteadilyinmorepopulouscounties,whereeducationishigher,orwhereinitialmedianhouseholdincomeislower.The

35、populationresultisconsistentwiththejob-matchinghypothesisdiscussedabove,andtheeducationandinitialincomeresultsmatchthosefoundincross-countryregressionsforconsumptiongrowthvolatilitybyBekaertetal.2006.AsinTable2,educationlosesitssignificancewhencontrollingforwholesaleestablishmentspercapita.Conclusio

36、nMotivatedbypriorresultssuggestingcontrastingandimportantpredictionsrelatingindustrialstructuretoeconomicstability,wehaveexploredempiricallinkagesbetweenmultiplesector-specificstructuremeasuresandthevolatilityofsubsequentgrowthratesinrealpercapitaincomeandemployment.Significantassociationswerefoundi

37、ntwo-thirdsofthespecifications,controllingforastandardsetofenvironmentalvariables.Overall,theturnoverhypothesiswasfoundtodominatethecontrastingpredictionsofinefficientcentralizeddecision-making,asemploymentandincomebothtendedtogrowmoresteadilywhereestablishmentswerelarger.Thesefindingssuggestanoffse

38、ttingbenefittothefirst-momentcostsofestablishmentsizeidentifiedbyShaffer2002,2006a,b.Thejob-matchinghypothesisisconsistentwithsteadiergrowthwheremoreestablishmentspercapitaoperate,asfoundforallsectorsintheemploymentregressionsandforthemanufacturingsectorintheincomeregressions.Contrastingresultsweref

39、oundintheincomeregressionsforwholesaleestablishmentsmeasuredbyemploymentsizeandforwholesaleestablishmentspercapitaAlthoughourmulti-yearlagstructurereducesthelikelihoodofreversecausalitybetweenindustrialstructureandgrowthvolatility,causalitycannotbedefinitivelyestablished,ashortcomingcommontoallempir

40、icalgrowthstudies.Consequently,policyinferencesshouldbedrawnwithcaution,pendingadditionalresearchontheprecisemechanismsunderlyingtheobservedpatterns.译文：产业结构和经济稳定谢里尔谢弗经济及金融系电子由B箱：通过预测产业结构和经济稳定之间的联系，在事先对比结果的启发下，我们提出探索这一重要问题的证据。在符合营业额假设的前提下，我们发现更稳定的就业增长在各行业机构均较大，这意味着一个抵消造福于编制第一时刻由以前的研究中发

41、现的成本。这与工作匹配假说相一致，即就业增长在经营各行业的场所更加稳定。与此相类似，但不太一致的结果也发现关于收入增长的稳定性。一、引言和背景经济运行的重要性催生了大量关于影响经济增长的实证因素的文献（见拉詹和辛格勒,1998;莱文等人，突出的例子为2000）。最近的一项研究发现，社区或局部地区往往经历着更快速的收入或就业增长，尤其是在小规模企业（谢弗,2002,2006a,b）。一个单独的研究链，它同时展示了学习增长率波动的重要性，而不仅仅是他们的手段（拉米和拉米,1995;库尔兹,2004;Ismihan,2005;贝卡尔特等,2006）。正是在这方面的几项有关的研究（戴维斯和黑尔蒂旺热,

42、1992;罗布,1995;戴维斯等人，1996）发现，在大公司工作往往比在小企业更持久；而Ilmakunnas等（2005）建议，这类营业额实际上可能是一个更快的生产率增长的原因，一个未开发的含义是就业和收入的波动性可能会导致更高的营业额在规模较小的地方企业中（即营业额假说）。相反,决策者由于人类的不可靠而导致经济的差异性更加集中地表现在决策的过程中（萨,1991;Sah和斯蒂格利茨，1991;阿尔梅达和费雷拉，2002）。这意味着,在一个企业平均规模较小或企业较多的地方，它的经济可能会更加稳定。一个在预计范围内的类似结果：（一）集中决策过程不太善于管理冲突和成功。（二）分配的冲突损害效率调整

43、（罗德瑞克,1999;阿尔梅达和费雷拉,2002）外生冲击。基于这些对比的考虑，一个重要的经验问题是，是否建立规模和产业结构等措施可能是系统地与经济表现的二阶矩措施相关。本文据此提出了初步的证据，关于选择工业结构和地方收入和就业增长率的波动性的相应措施之间的联系。我们使用的三种产业结构措施受到每个部门的广泛尊敬。正如谢弗（2002）,我们衡量平均的建立规模，通过员工人数、创造美寻找一元的附加值、发货或收据。我们也期待由两个对立因素推动的人均机构份新的在某一有很多雇主的部门的工作应该更容易，它导致更多稳定水平的收入和就业增长率(即“就业选配假说”)。但是，其他条件不变，小企业往往会允许更多数量的

44、企业并存，在这种情况下，在小企业就业(如上所述)记录的营业额往往会抵消许多公司更加稳定的利益。我们产业结构的每一个措施都被单独编译为制造业，批发，零售和服务行业。我们称这些结构措施为经济表现的两个二阶矩措施，即每年的人均实际收入增长率统计处和编制总额的年均增长速度的SD就业这些措施。这个结果导致了两个单独的文献股，经济增长波动的实证协变量和建立规模与其他产业结构措施对宏观经济的影响。我们发现所有规模较大的企业和人均较多的部门都与稳定的就业增长速度相关联，符合营业额和就业选配假设。同样的联系是找到了但并不带来所有部门人均实际收入增长速度的波动。下一节介绍了经验模型和样本。第三节介绍结果，而第四部

45、分为结论。二、模型及样本我们将关键变量嵌入一个标准的线性增长方程，1其中Y是衡量经济表现，如上所述，是一个估计的截距项,S是产业结构衡量标准，因为上面的讨论,X是下面讨论的控制变量向量，是估计系数，是随机误差项。如贝卡尔特等(2006),我们的经济增长率已经被测量了5年的时间。正如之前的经济增长的研究，控制矢量包括人口的自然对数，平均土地面积的人口密度,教育和初始家庭收入中位数的衡量。人口是市场规模的测量措施在Cetorelli和Gambera(2001)。这也类似于总劳动人口的变量在Ohuallachain和Satterthwa计e（1992）的使用，它可作为衡量城市化的经济解释。如果就业选

46、配起来更快或者更有效地发生在人口较多的地区，那么对这个变量的估计系数应为负（另一个上面介绍的就业选配假说的含义）。人口密度已被发现与经济表现的几个第一时刻措施显著相关，可能是由于规模效应，或企业和工人之间的匹配，优越的密集市场（西科尼和霍尔,1996;安德森等,2004;卡诺等,2007;斯拉姆斯基等，2005）。如果这些利益影响经济稳定，那么人们可能会想到估计人口密度系数应在我们的模型之中。教育是衡量人口年龄在25岁及以上的完成了高中学业的比例，并反映了人力资本积累水平。它类似于在拉詹和津加莱斯（1998）,利文（2000年）和Cetorelli和Gambera（2001）等人先前的研究中经

47、济增长的措施，并以平均增长研究利率理论之间的联系（特莱斯,2005）。一个关于教育的措施已被用于至少一年的生长波动研究（贝卡尔特等,2006）。止匕外，教育被认为是与美国大都会区的部门就业的O'huallachain和Satterthwaite（1992）增长有关。如果教育促进经济稳定良好，其回归系数的估计应该是否定的。家庭收入中位数可以初步反映经济表现的第一矩收敛作用的措施，如巴罗和萨拉-伊-马丁（1992）指出。同样的逻辑并不适用于二阶矩措施的经济表现，呈现这个变量的符号和系数的估计这一个开放性经验问题的意义。然而，类似的变量（初步的人均国内生产总值）已用于至少一年的生长波动之前的研究（贝卡尔特等,2006）。表1总结了数据。我们的样本超过2000年的美国非大都市在测量1991?1995年的经济表现和1