Oracle应用系统发展势头强劲

1、附件九:Oracle应用系统发展势头强劲主要竞争对手业绩不佳，99年13季度软件销售额增长率（同比上年）如下：99年第一季度99年第二季度99年第三季度Oracle5%28%11%Peoples oft-44%-61%-67%SAP-8%-15%-26%竞争对手业绩不佳的主要原因是:?向e-bus in ess方向转变太慢?销售队伍严重流失?在客户关系管理领域（CRM落后?处在产品转型阶段风险大?分析家们对它们近期前景亦不看好详细内容请参阅下面文章）Both SAP and PSFT made disappointing pre-announcements last weekindicatin

2、g their results for Q3 would be weaker t hananalysts expected. Final results for both compan ies wererelease withinthe past two days.In SAP reported final Q3 numbers in line with pre-announced results of(7%) total revenue growth and (26%) pure license growth.Analyst agreedthe revisions were signific

3、ant and the potentialfor further downside is3 / 11greater than the likelihood of any upside in the near-term.TheUS-based business continues to struggle, with mod erateimprovement inthe Asia/Pacific region. The primary surprise fo r the quartercame fromhigher-than-expected operating expenses as SAP c

4、ontinues to investheavily in R&D and marketing to support its newly launchedinternetstrategy. Average revenue per new sale fell sig nificantlyas a resultof increased mid-market sales, incremental salesto the installed base,lower priced add-ons, and more prospects buying in smaller chunks. Theove

5、rwhelming consensus among the analysts for SAP is anenvironmentcharacterized by a number of challenges, including a tough macroeconomicsituation, continued salesforce attrition (especi ally in theU.S.), anda complicated and late transition in an effort to become aninternet-enabled back- and front-of

6、fice applicati on provider.Furthermore, analysts expressed concern with thefundamental trend ofSAPs decreasing high-margin license revenue coup ledwith theirincreasing low-margin consulting revenue. The co nsensusfollowingmanagements comments was predominantly characterized as cautiouslyuncertain, w

7、ith no clearly available catalyst to generatenear-terminterest in the stock.PSFTs reported Q3 results were in line with the recentdownwardlyrevised guidance given in the Companys October 1 1th5 / 11pre-release. License revenue for the quarter was down 67%year overyear, with management attributing th

8、e shortfall to thecontinued soft demand for PSFTs core back-officeapplications,especially in the U.S. marketplace. Two noted co ncernsamong a number of analysts include issues surroun dingPSFTs lack ofcompetitiveness in a shift to a e-business drivenmarketplace as well as PSFTs inability to retain t

9、alentedindividuals.The hard-to-answer question remains the timing fopotential recovery as PSFT shifts its product bas e towardse-businesssolutions and eventually integrates front-office supplierVantive. Analysts current expectations are for somerecovery beginningin early 2000, but acknowledge that t

10、ransition ri sksremain, and caution investors that it is safer to remain onthesidelines in the near-term. Overall, the analyst s sentimenttowardsPSFT was similar to that of SAP - youre behind the timesand havequite a way to catch up! As a result, neither re presents athreat to ORCL in the foreseeabl

11、e future.Summary of Results:7 / 11ERP license revenue comparison:YoY pure license growth:CY Q1CYQ2CYQ3ORCL5%28%11%PSFT(44%)(61%)(67%)SAP(8%)(15%)(26%)SAP Operating Margin: 7.3% vs 19.3% in Q398Peoplesoft Operating Margin: 1.5% vs 18.6% in Q3Analyst Quotes:- Neil Herman, Salomon Smith BarneyWhile, in

12、 our view, the macroeconomic environment for the ERP playersmay have stopped getting worse, SAP has some work to do98regarding its mySAP and Internet initiatives. Therefore, we areinclined to believe that this may not be the last disappointingearnings announcement b efore the company emergesfrom the forest.- Devika Malik, J.P. MorganWe think that SAPs weak third-quarter results are due to two factors:(1.) based on our ongoing discussions with CIOs(head of IT), we believe that companies are