成长型市场视角：人力资本趋势1015

1、r s. africa as of 2008; india and mexico as of 2007; others as of 2009 资料来源: 经合组织、世界银行、haver、美国国家自然科学基金会、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本 报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国 finra 的注册/合格研究分析师。 高盛集团 jan-12dec-11feb-12ju

2、n-12 jul-12 may-12aug-12 oct-11 nov-11mar-12apr-12sep-12 indonesia china turkey mexico russia korea brazil s.africa india oct-12 8 2 2012 年 10 月 12 日 growth markets: economic and market data exhibit 1: market performance: equity, rates and currency as of oct 10, 2012 全球 global markets price return (

3、us$, %) 3000 gm performance chart* indices1-monthytd em gsstem50 gm* dm gsstdm50 -0.4 -0.1 2.3 2.2 2.0 8.3 9.4 8.6 10.4 4.6 2700 2400 2100 -1-0.500.511.522.5 growth markets price return (us$, %)currency (vs. usd)cy201210y yield msci indices india 1-month 9.8 ytd 21.4 current 53.06 1mo chg (%) 4.5 pe

4、 (x) 15.0 eps growth (%) 8.3 pb (x) 2.6 roe (%) 16.9 current (%) 8.2 1 mo chg (bp) -2 china offshore5.4 6.39.83.11.515.7 mexico indonesia korea china domestic* turkey brazil -0.7 0.5 0.3 1.9 4.3 3.9 21.7 3.4 11.1 -0.9 38.8 -6.3 12.95 9613 1115 6.28 1.82 2.04 1.1 -0.3 1.3 0.9 -0.8 -0.9 18.8 15.1 9.5

5、10.9 11.2 11.6 35.5 11.0 17.8 7.9 9.0 -11.7 2.8 3.5 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.4 15.4 24.7 11.7 15.4 15.8 10.7 5.3 5.9 2.9 3.5 8.4 9.6 -23 -7 -13 3 16 -7 russia s.africa -5.7 -6-4 -0.8 -2 024681012 7.6 2.2 31.15 8.72 1.6 -6.1 5.1 12.8 -7.3 14.7 0.6 2.2 13.9 18.2 3.0 7.2 -7 35 gsstdm50 = gs dm brics nifty 50 bask

6、et; gsstem50 = gs em brics nifty 50 basket *growth market performance is based on aggregation of its corresponding msci country index market cap series; china domestic performance is based on csi300 index source: msci, factset, bloomberg, gs global ecs research exhibit 2: macro economic indicators (

7、gs est.) as of oct 10, 2012 exhibit 3: msci country index return decomposition of gm as of oct 10, 2012 gdp (%yoy)cpi (%yoy) ca surplus/deficit (% gdp) (%) 10 1-mo chg in ntm eps 1-mo fx return 1-mo chg in ntm p/e 1-mo us$ price return 2012e2013e2012e2013e2012e2013e brazil russia india china mexico

8、indonesia korea turkey s. africa gm em dm 1.6 4.1 5.7 7.6 3.7 6.0 2.6 3.2 2.6 5.6 5.6 1.4 4.0 4.3 7.0 8.0 4.0 6.4 3.5 5.5 3.4 6.4 6.3 1.5 5.3 5.1 7.2 2.8 4.2 4.5 2.4 9.2 5.7 4.4 4.7 2.1 4.9 6.4 5.7 3.0 3.7 5.7 2.8 9.0 5.0 4.3 4.6 2.0 -2.5 5.1 -3.5 2.5 -0.6 -2.0 2.8 -6.5 -5.0 0.5 0.5 -0.3 -2.6 4.1 -3

9、.7 2.3 -1.2 0.5 1.4 -8.0 -4.5 0.2 0.3 -0.6 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 note: regional aggregations are based on nominal gdp ppp weighted source: gs global ecs research 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 source: msci, factset, gs global ecs research 3 2012 年 10 月 12 日全球 prologue: trends in growth markets human capital current v

10、iews: counting down to a potential 2013 takeoff for gm equities weve just spent three weeks on the road, discussing the world and growth markets with a wide variety of clients in europe, the us, and latin america. for the last two years, the defensive parts of gm have held up better than the cyclica

11、l (china, russia, brazil) parts of gm as emerging markets have largely disappointed investors as economic growth in gm has largely been revised down for the last 8 quarters (coincident with chinas tightening cycle) and valuations have compressed. unsurprisingly, dm companies have been better about c

12、utting costs and maintaining margins, while gm companies, presumably more focused on growth, have had weaker results as the top line has weakened. as we head towards 2013, and get past the chinese leadership change, the us election, and find some resolution to the us fiscal cliff, we are hopeful tha

13、t gm growth estimates will stabilize and inflect, partly catalyzed by the expectation of more pro-active chinese policy, thereby refocusing investors on top line growth, particularly in the cyclical part of gm. in this issue: a comparison of human capital in the growth markets continuing our compara

14、tive analyses across gm, in this issue we tackle the broad area of human capital. we look at trends in education, intellectual property, patents, and royalties, and compare them to the paths trodden by the developed economies. this topic supplements our previous work on commodity drivers and linkage

15、s, because many of the primary balances in gm countries are based on either commodity or human capital drivers. these two axes are naturally interlinked; the rise of china has largely been a human capital and manufacturing story but its growth has had important effects on commodities markets, and co

16、untries with commodity stories have become important consumers for chinese manufactured goods. from papers like robert lucas influential on the mechanics of economic development (1988), human capital (h) is generally acknowledged to be one of the four inputs to economic growth, the other three being

17、 labor / demographics (l), financial capital (k), and total factor productivity (tfp, the residual). since demographic trends are largely known (and hard to change), we examine human capital (the other side of the labor picture) since skill levels and the pace of improvement can differ widely. the o

18、ther subtext of our story is how quickly human capital is changing in many parts of the developing world, and how competitive a place the world has become. many espouse the idea that it will take developing countries many decades to catch up to developed markets; in this issue we explore some of tho

19、se trends and see where growth markets stack up, both in current capabilities and rate of growth. in countries like china and korea, where human capital is building rapidly especially at the college graduate level, we wonder whether the countries will be able to fully utilize this energy going forwa

20、rd. as we build some foundational pillars for addressing the question of the middle-income trap, something which is often cited as a reason that developing countries may never become developed, we begin to notice signs of dutch disease and the resource curse, where a dependence on commodities can cr

21、owd out the manufacturing sector via the exchange rate and terms of trade. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 4 2012 年 10 月 12 日全球 comparing education across gm in fortnightly thoughts: where countries succeed companies follow (sept 20), human capital was one of the factors examined. in this issue, we take a closer loo

22、k at what we believe is one of the fundamental sources of economic energy for a country. we start with a montage of very basic education information: literary rates, school life expectancy, doctorate degrees awarded, and education spending. although our analysis is quantitative, we understand there

23、is an important qualitative dimension as well every dollar or year spent on education may produce very different outcomes because of teaching quality, area of focus (primary vs secondary vs tertiary), or income strata (as in some latin american countries). exhibit 5, while imperfect, attempts to rou

24、ghly show that expenditure and output may not be well correlated. - korea looks more like a dm than a growth market, with similar levels of educational achievement as most of the oecd on a number of measures. indeed, korea may need to deal with increasing education inflation, where the focus on educ

25、ational achievement creates a workforce overqualified for the jobs available. - in china, public spending on education is below the oecd average, but private spending narrows the gap considerably. china appears to punch well above its expenditure weight: exhibit 5 shows very high test scores (althou

26、gh only for wealthier shanghai), china now mints more hard science ph.ds annually than the us (exhibit 6), and chinese students in the us are the largest and fastest growing group (exhibit 8). - although the large fiscal deficit of india may hamper its ability to spend on public education, indonesia

27、 spends about the same amount, turkey spends even less. - commodity wealthy countries like brazil and mexico spend more than the oecd average but that doesnt appear to produce high average test scores, or many doctorates. russia has a relatively high percentage of hard science doctorates, however (e

28、xhibit 6). - although there is a loose correlation between public education spending and per capita gdp (exhibit 7), some countries exhibit greater mobility along the trend than others (china vs. south africa for instance). this graph does not take into account the effects of commodity wealth on per

29、 capita gdp. related areas: international students in the us and brain drain/gain to triangulate the quality dimension, we also looked at other related statistics, like the number and proportion of students in the us (exhibit 8). again, korea clearly punches well above its weight, with over 8 times

30、the propensity (0.17% vs. most other countries at 0.02%) to study in the united states, something which is clearly not shared by koreas north asian neighbors, even china (although chinas cagr is the fastest). and perhaps more importantly, the measure of brain drain/gain shown in exhibit 9 suggests t

31、hat the us is generally the big winner in attracting scientific talent (although this is for a few select fields and does not include all of our countries). the point is an important one; if an indian scientist is educated in the us and decides to stay there after getting his/her degree, then this w

32、ill create gdp for the us, not india. so ultimately the ability to attract, absorb, and efficiently use highly skilled people is also an important growth factor. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 meanpisascore indonesia japantaiwan germany turkeyfrancerussia mexico korea s.africa china brazil india usuk educationspend

33、ingasa%ofgdp russia chinabrazil usuk mexico germany taiwan india* korea japan* turkey turkeyrussia chinakorea india indonesia germany s.africa mexico france uk japan brazil uk (1.0) russia (0.6) 100 (thous) 0 5 2012 年 10 月 12 日 exhibit 4: literacy rates and school life expectancyexhibit 5: education

34、 spending as a % of gdp, vs standardized test scores 全球 18 school life expectancy (yrs)literacy rate (rhs) 100% 600 china (2.0) r = 0.03 16 14 90% 80% 550 japan (1.3) france (0.5) korea (4.0) 12 10 8 6 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 500 450 400 germany (0.5) turkey (0.9) us (1.6) oecd avg (0.9) mexico (1.8) in

35、donesia (1.7) brazil (2.9) 4 20% 2 10%350 00% 300 india* (1.4) (%) 345678910 education spending as a % of gdp note: for literacy rate: brazil as of 2008; india as of 2007; s. africa as of 2004; the rest as of 2009; for school life expectancy: all data as of 2010 source: oecd, worldbank, unesco, gs g

36、lobal ecs research exhibit 6: china produces more hard science ph.ds than the us earned doctoral degrees note: brackets = private education as a % of gdp; china as of 2011; indonesia as of 2010; turkey as of 2006; the rest as of 2009; pisa (oecd study) aims to evaluate education systems worldwide by

37、 assessing 15-year-olds competencies in the key subjects: reading, mathematics and science. china pisa score draw from students in shanghai only. india pisa score draw from students in two states. source: oecd, worldbank, unesco, euromonitor, gs global ecs research exhibit 7: public education spendi

38、ng as a % of gdp, vs. gdp per capita (thous) 70 60 hard science engineering other doctorates hard-sci. japan as of 2007; others as of 2008; *based on urban population source: oecd, worldbank, unesco, nsf, gs global ecs research exhibit 8: korea has over 8 times students in the us in term of % of tot

39、al urban population international students in the us 1,000 10,000 gdp per capita (us$) source: oecd, worldbank, unesco, gs global ecs research exhibit 9: brain drain and gain 100,000 total international students in the us (2010/11)researchers who have left the countryimmigrants as a % of researchers

40、 160 20.3% % of total urban population (rhs)0.20% 40200204060 0.18% us 120 80 40 6.3% 4.4% -11.3% 0.16% 0.14% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% australia sweden switzerland canada denmark uk france japan netherlands germany spain brazil belgium italy india note: numbers above the bars are th

41、e 5 year cagr of international students in the us source: institute of international education, gs global ecs research 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 note: ranked according to the difference between immigrants as % of researchers and researchers who have left the country; results draw from a survey on 17,182 active

42、 researchers from four research areas, biology, chemistry, earth and environmental sciences, and materials across 16 countries during 2011 source: nber, gs global ecs research 6 2012 年 10 月 12 日全球 r it shows a reasonable correlation, and shows that high tech exports shares in dm are largely declinin

43、g (which is also related to increases in dm consumption). from this admittedly basic chart, it would appear that korea and china are very focused on moving up the export value chain. although this strategy has been largely successful, we would argue that other factors (terms of trade, government inc

44、entives, etc) must also play some part in this development. r s. africa as of 2008; india and mexico as of 2007; all others as of 2009; no breakdown available for brazil and india source: oecd, worldbank, nsf, ceic, china nbs, gs global ecs research exhibit 12: r size of the bubbles and circles indi

45、cate high-tech exports as a % of manufactured exports; korea is from 2001- 2009 source: oecd, worldbank, nsf, ceic, china nbs, gs global ecs research exhibit 13: current r s. africa as of 2008; india and mexico as of 2007; 1001,00010,000100,000others as of 2009; sensitivity is ppt chg of r researche

46、rs in r s. africa as of 2008; india and mexico as of 2007; others as of 2009 source: oecd, worldbank, imf, nsf, china nbs, gs global ecs research 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 conception or creation of new knowledge, products, processes, methods, or systems and in the management of the projects concerned. postgrad

47、uate phd students (isced97 level 6) engaged in r although the us and european patent systems have obvious differences, we combine them because the majority of eu countries subscribe to the european patent convention through the european patent office, and therefore it captures the two largest region

48、s of the oecd. the current rankings are shown in exhibits 16 and 17, and the time series for each country is shown in exhibits 18 and 19. from these charts, a certain taxonomy of the growth markets unfolds: - the unsurprising world leaders are the us (40%), japan (20%), and germany (9%), but korea (

49、5%) the leader within gm, outranking more developed economies (uk, france). - korea appears to be following the japan example, by focusing on improving its human capital and technological advantages. given koreas enormous commodities deficit (12% of annual gdp) as highlighted in gmp #5 (assaying gm

50、commodity linkages, may 18, 2012), like korea has few options other than human capital as a source of value added and gdp growth. - china is behind korea in the patent race but as shown in the previous section the fundamental elements are in place for china to continue to increase its push for highe

51、r levels of achievement. in particular, as we highlighted in gmp #4 (the rising gm share of global fdi, may 3, 2012), the enormous amount of fdi (nearly $1 trn over the last 8 years), combined with the chinese policy of encouraging joint venture greenfield fdi with a high degree of technology conten

52、t, is helping china raise its technological skill set rapidly. - india and turkey, both net commodity deficit countries with negative trade balances, have low patent bases but the slope of their efforts is encouraging it may take time but korea has shown than even large commodity deficits can be ove

53、rcome with human capital. - brazil, russia, south africa, and indonesia all commodity rich countries, do not appear to be placing much focus on patents their market shares are very small and despite their reasonably high educational levels, their patent trends appear basically flat. this supports th

54、e idea of the resource curse, where the focus and productive elements of a country converge on developing their plentiful resources, rather than raising the ip of manufacturing or services. - mexico, which has both manufacturing and commodity sectors, appears to be in the middle of the patent race;

55、although its base is low, it is steadily rising albeit at a lower rate than the commodity deficit countries. - finally, as a cross-reference to patent analysis, we present the insead/wipo global innovation scores for the gms and select dms in exhibit 20; korea and china lead the gms and are close to

56、 the major dms; indeed korea is already ahead of france and japan. 高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究 germany francerussia brazil s.africa korea mexico turkey indonesia usuk taiwan japan chinaindia russia brazil germany s.africa france korea mexico turkey indonesia china usuk japan taiwan india 200220032004200520062007

57、20082009201020112002200320042005200620072008200920102011 uk(5) switzerland(1) russia(51) china(34)brazil(58) indonesia(100) us(10) korea(21) s.africa(54) turkey(74) india(64) germany(15) mexico(79) france(24) japan(25) 20.2% 9 2012 年 10 月 12 日 exhibit 16: patents granted (us + europe)exhibit 17: pat

58、ent applications (us + europe) 全球 25% 43% percentage of total granted (2011) 9yr cagr of patent granted (rhs) 9yr cagr of total patent granted (rhs) 40% 35% 25% 44% percentage of total application (2011) 9yr cagr of patent application (rhs) 9yr cagr of total patent application (rhs) 40% 35% 20% 15%

59、10% 30% 25% 20% 15% 20% 15% 10% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 10% 5% 0% 5% 0% 5% 0% -5% source: wipo, uspto, epo, gs global ecs research exhibit 18: some countries are focused on greater ip % of total patents granted (us + europe) source: wipo, uspto, epo, gs global ecs research exhibit 19: and some cou

60、ntries are clearly not % of total patents granted (us + europe) koreachinaindia brazilrussia 5.0%turkeymexico5.0% s. africaindonesia 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% korea 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% source: wipo, uspto, epo, gs global ecs research exhibit 20: korea and china have better innovation environments global i