专业估值模型_EXCEL模版.xls

最新修改 增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。原先的估值对应FCFF估值。其他估值模型有些数是链接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全 更改了自由现金流定义 EBIT（1-所得税率）折旧资本支出非现金性流动资本变化 预测前首先需要自己输入的数据 3主营收入及成本：各公司收入及成本的预测方法不尽相同，需要分析师自己做 4预测假设：各种假设条件 5固定资产预测：历史折旧和摊销 7损益表及利润分配：2003-2004A利润数据 8资产负债表：2003-2004历史数据 7损益表及利润分配、8资产负债表：无公式的单元格需要手动填入，如一些特殊会计科目 DCF估值（FCFF）：分析日期、股本结构，假设条件中的“第二阶段增长率、长期增长率、应付债券利率、”。注意：第二阶段(2010-2017)年数不可更改。 其他估值模型：各假设条件（第二阶段年数也不可更改） 11输出结果：2003-2004年经营活动现金流量、投资活动现金流量、融资活动现金流量 增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。原先的估值对应FCFF估值。其他估值模型有些数是链接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全 DCF估值（FCFF）：分析日期、股本结构，假设条件中的“第二阶段增长率、长期增长率、应付债券利率、”。注意：第二阶段(2010-2017)年数不可更改。 估估值值过过程程中中所所用用的的固固定定参参数数 参参数数数数值值 无风险利率Rf5.00% 平均风险股票必要报酬率Rm11.00% 一般情景预测历史数据区 名名称称20022003 产产品品 分分产产品品收收入入 尿素收入32,261.0832,356.92 DMF收入5,800.3724,055.91 甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品收入7,048.498,786.03 醋酸收入 尿素收入增长率0.30% DMF收入增长率314.73% 甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品收入增长率24.65% 醋酸收入增长率 分分产产品品价价格格 市场尿素月均价1,261.001,384.00 市场DMF月均价 市场甲醇月均价1,842.002,396.00 醋酸月均价 尿素价格上涨幅度9.75% DMF价格上涨幅度#DIV/0! 甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等价格上涨幅度30.08% 醋酸价格上涨幅度 分分产产品品产产量量 尿素产量增长率-8.62% DMF产量增长率#DIV/0! 甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品等化工品产量增长率-4.17% 醋酸产量增长率0.00 尿素产量 DMF产量 甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品等化工品产量 醋酸产量 主主要要产产品品收收入入合合计计（万万元元）45,109.9465,198.86 其它产品收入（万元）0.000.00 其它产品占主营收入比例0.00%0.00% 主主营营业业务务收收入入（万万元元）45,11065,199 调调整整比比例例0.00%0.00% 主主营营业业务务收收入入（万万元元） 调调整整后后45,11065,199 主营收入增长率%44.5% 主主营营业业务务成成本本预预测测20022003 尿素利润6,969.755,923.59 DMF利润1473.165494.36 甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品利润838.852,218.79 醋酸利润 尿素毛利率21.60%18.31% DMF毛利率25.40%22.84% 甲醇/甲醛/三甲胺等化工品毛利率11.90%25.25% 醋酸毛利率 主营业务利润9281.7613636.74 主营业务利润增长率46.92% 主主营营业业务务毛毛利利率率20.58%20.92% 子公司收入预测 并并表表子子公公司司 股股权权比比例例20022003 子公司利润预测 并并表表子子公公司司 股股权权比比例例20022003 合合计计 少少数数股股东东权权益益 调调整整后后少少数数股股东东权权益益 显性期预测 200420052006E2007E2008E2009E 44,671.0366,824.0099,801.64109,033.30137,763.57157,050.47 40,632.0945,839.0075,634.35104,224.13114,646.55108,914.22 14,044.4422,559.0023,574.1629,467.6932,414.4632,414.46 36,000.00111,600.00 38.06%49.59%49.35%9.25%26.35%14.00% 68.91%12.81%65.00%37.80%10.00%-5.00% 59.85%60.63%4.50%25.00%10.00%0.00% 1,653.001,855.721,911.391,815.821,725.031,638.78 0.000.000.000.000.00 2,800.003,904.323,709.103,709.103,709.103,709.10 6,000.006,200.00 19.44%12.26%3.00%-5.00%-5.00%-5.00% #DIV/0!-13.22%10.00%6.00%0.00%-5.00% 16.86%39.44%-5.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 15.59%33.25%45.00%15.00%33.00%20.00% #DIV/0!30.00%50.00%30.00%10.00%0.00% 36.79%15.19%10.00%25.00%10.00%0.00% 0.000.000.000.00 6.0018.00 99,347.56135,222.00199,010.15242,725.12320,824.58409,979.15 0.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 99,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,979 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 99,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,979 52.4%36.1%47.2%22.0%32.2%27.8% 200420052006E2007E2008E2009E 8,669.1013,749.0021,332.5423,305.8129,446.8833,569.45 9652.256883.0015210.0724758.6927234.5624579.19 历史数据区 2,529.404,762.004,976.295,307.125,837.845,837.84 0.008,551.8925,185.30 19.41%20.57%21.37%21.37%21.37%21.37% 23.76%15.02%20.11%23.76%23.76%22.57% 18.01%21.11%21.11%18.01%18.01%18.01% 23.76%23.76%22.57% 20850.7525394.0041518.9053371.6271071.1789171.78 52.90%21.79%63.50%28.55%33.16%25.47% 20.77%18.78%20.86%21.99%22.15%21.75% 20042005E2006E2007E2008E2009E 20042005E2006E2007E2008E2009E 一般情景预测 1 1、经经营营活活动动2003200420052006E2007E 主营业务收入同比增长率44.53%52.38%36.11%47.17%21.97% 主营业务成本 /主营业务收入79.08%79.23%81.22%79.14%78.01% 主营业务税金及附加 /主营业务收入 （营业税率）0.50%0.55%0.49%0.49%0.49% 营业费用 /主营业务收入1.12%1.47%1.41%1.41%1.41% 管理费用 /主营业务收入3.22%2.49%1.94%1.94%1.94% 实际税率23.95%17.16%19.63%19.63%19.63% 股利分配比例25.44%19.86%9.51%9.51%9.51% 2 2、营营运运资资金金2003200420052006E2007E 货币资金 /主营业务收入49.67%34.84%27.05%27.05%27.05% 应收帐款周转天数(相对于主营业务收 入)0.010.000.000.000.00 应收票据周转天数(相对于主营业务收 入)6.381.665.055.055.05 存货周转天数(相对于主营业务成本)38.2247.4248.1848.1848.18 应付票据周转天数(相对于主营业务成 本)0.000.009.119.119.11 应付帐款周转天数(相对于主营业务成 本)39.31116.7245.4645.4645.46 预付帐款增加 /主营业务成本2.29%-0.60%1.16%1.16%1.16% 待摊费用增加 /营业费用和管理费用-0.13%0.03%2.06%2.06%2.06% 预收帐款(负债)增加 /主营业务收入1.62%0.91%3.33%3.33%3.33% 预提费用增加 /营业费用和管理费用0.00%0.00%0.49%0.49%0.49% 其他流动资产增加 /主营业务收入增 加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 其他流动负债增加 /主营业务收入增 加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 其他长期资产增加 /主营业务收入增 加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 其他长期负债增加 /主营业务收入增 加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 坏帐准备 /应收帐款0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 短期投资跌价准备#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%0.00% 存货跌价准备(含工程亏损准备)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 长期投资减值准备#DIV/0!#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%0.00% 固定资产减值准备0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 在建工程减值准备0.00%#DIV/0!0.00%0.00%0.00% 3 3、资资本本性性投投资资 a、假定固定资产采用直直线线法法折旧 b、现有固定资产和新建固定资产的折旧年限平均为12年 残值率为5.00%年折旧率=7.92% c、各年的固定资产投资如下：2 20 00 03 32 20 00 04 42 20 00 05 52006E2006E2007E2007E 55,760.3160,852.5051,739.0060,000.0030,000.00 4、债债务务和和利利息息2003200420052006E2007E a、最低货币资金为主营业务收入的34.84% b、银行长期贷款利率为6.00% c、现金不足时增加短期贷款，利率为5.50% d、现金存款利率为1.35% 预计银行长期贷款增加额（万元）42,700.0049,400.0032,333.0020,000.00(40,000.00) 2008E2009E 32.18%27.79% 77.85%78.25% 0.49%0.49% 1.41%1.41% 1.94%1.94% 19.63%19.63% 9.51%9.51% 2008E2009E 27.05%27.05% 0.000.00 5.055.05 48.1848.18 9.119.11 45.4645.46 1.16%1.16% 2.06%2.06% 3.33%3.33% 0.49%0.49% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 2008E2008E2009E2009E 3,000.003,000.00 2008E2009E (35,000.00)(35,000.00) 经经营营情情景景分分析析 情情景景选选择择2 2一一般般情情景景预预测测 会会计计年年度度截截止止日日：12/3112/312005E2006E 1销售收入增长率36.11%47.17% 2销货成本 / 销售收入81.22%79.14% 3管理费用 / 销售收入1.94%1.94% 营业费用 / 销售收入1.41%1.41% 股利分配比例9.51%9.51% 1 1乐乐观观情情景景预预测测 销售收入增长率39.72%51.89% 销货成本 / 销售收入79.60%77.55% 管理费用 / 销售收入1.84%1.84% 营业费用 / 销售收入1.34%1.34% 股利分配比例14.51%14.51% 2 2一一般般情情景景预预测测 销售收入增长率36.11%47.17% 销货成本 / 销售收入81.22%79.14% 管理费用 / 销售收入1.94%1.94% 营业费用 / 销售收入1.41%1.41% 股利分配比例9.51%9.51% 3 3保保守守情情景景预预测测 销售收入增长率32.50%42.46% 销货成本 / 销售收入82.84%80.72% 管理费用 / 销售收入2.03%2.03% 营业费用 / 销售收入1.48%1.48% 股利分配比例4.51%4.51% 2007E2008E2009E 21.97%32.2%27.79% 78.01%77.8%78.25% 1.94%1.9%1.94% 1.41%1.4%1.41% 9.51%9.5%9.51% 24.16%35.39%30.57% 76.45%76.29%76.68% 1.84%1.84%1.84% 1.34%1.34%1.34% 14.51%14.51%14.51% 21.97%32.18%27.79% 78.01%77.85%78.25% 1.94%1.94%1.94% 1.41%1.41%1.41% 9.51%9.51%9.51% 19.77%28.96%25.01% 79.57%79.40%79.81% 2.03%2.03%2.03% 1.48%1.48%1.48% 4.51%4.51%4.51% 历历史史折折旧旧：200220032004固固定定资资产产折折旧旧 原值72,321.7875,494.11224,525.01 折旧3,422.505,488.04 折旧率0.00%4.53%2.44% 假假设设： 现有固定资产的折旧年限/折旧率7.92% 使使用用直直线线折折旧旧法法 新建固定资产的折旧年限/折旧率6.00% 20052006E2007E2008E2009E 初始固定资产原值224,52517,774.9017,774.9017,774.9017,774.9017,774.90 2005固定资产投资+在建工程转44,2392,654.342,654.342,654.342,654.342,654.34 2006固定资产投资+在建工程转60,7503,645.003,645.003,645.003,645.00 2007固定资产投资+在建工程转31,8751,912.501,912.501,912.50 2008固定资产投资+在建工程转3,938236.25236.25 2009固定资产投资+在建工程转3,469208.13 在建工程期初余额0.007,500.006,750.004,875.003,937.50 新增工程物资0.000.000.000.000.00 新增在建工程15,000.006,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00 转固定资产7,500.006,750.004,875.003,937.503,468.75 在建工程期末余额7,500.006,750.004,875.003,937.503,468.75 期初固定资产合计189,218.01220,527.77256,453.54260,466.80237,243.81 + +固定资产投资51,739.0060,000.0030,000.003,000.003,000.00 折旧20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11 固定资产减值准备0.000.000.000.000.00 期期末末固固定定资资产产合合计计220,527.77256,453.54260,466.80237,243.81213,812.70 无无形形资资产产投投资资和和折折旧旧 历历史史摊摊销销：200220032004 摊销 假假设设：不考虑无形资产增加，无形资产采用直线法摊销，摊销年限10 年 20042005E2006E2007E2008E2009E 期初无形资产净值0.000.000.000.000.00 摊销0.000.000.000.000.00 期末无形资产净值0.000.000.000.000.000.00 一般情景预测 利利润润表表（单单位位：万万元元） 历史数据区显性期预测 会计年度截止日：12/3120022003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E 主主营营业业务务收收入入45,11065,19999,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,979 增增长长率率44.5%52.4%36.1%47.2%22.0%32.2%27.8% 减：折扣与折让 主主营营业业务务收收入入净净额额45,11065,19999,348135,222199,010242,725320,825409,979 减：主营业务成本35,82851,56278,710109,162157,491189,354249,753320,807 主营业务税金及附加2743275496669801,1951,5802,019 主主营营业业务务利利润润9,00813,31020,08925,39440,53952,17669,49187,153 毛毛利利率率20.6%20.9%20.8%19.3%20.9%22.0%22.2%21.8% 加：其他业务利润226.26119.3872.7912.00150.00200.00200.00200.00 减：存货跌价损失0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 营业费用414.57731.761,460.751,902.002,799.233,414.114,512.645,766.67 管理费用2,627.692,102.052,471.252,620.003,855.934,702.936,216.157,943.57 利息费用7,661.398,975.988,616.626,366.623,805.98 利息收入480.51623.80820.091,041.031,534.13 汇兑损益(收益为正) 其他0.000.000.000.000.00 财务费用782.48810.47939.56633.891,805.181,249.54(1,221.41)2,271.85 营营业业利利润润5,409.949,784.9015,289.8220,250.1132,228.3943,009.5660,183.6571,370.45 加：投资收益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 加：期货收益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 补贴收入802.87859.631.201,439.00600.000.000.000.00 营业外收入23.3629.3638.68203.0050.0050.0050.0050.00 减：营业外支出93.05317.94103.4150.0080.0080.0080.0080.00 加：以前年度损益调整 税税前前利利润润6,143.1210,355.9515,226.2921,842.1132,798.3942,979.5660,153.6571,340.45 减：所得税1,533.672,479.922,612.624,287.006,437.418,435.6911,806.4914,002.15 实际税率25.0%23.9%17.2%19.6%19.6%19.6%19.6%19.6% 加：财政返还 减：少数股东损益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 加：未确认的投资损失 减：购并利润 净净利利润润4,609.457,876.0312,613.6717,555.1126,360.9834,543.8748,347.1657,338.30 销销售售净净利利率率10.2%12.1%12.7%13.0%13.2%14.2%15.1%14.0% 净净利利润润增增长长率率70.9%60.2%39.2%50.2%31.0%40.0%18.6% 发行在外股份数量(万股）16,700.0016,700.0016,700.0025,050.0025,050.0033,050.0033,050.0033,050.00 EPSEPS0.2760.4720.7550.7011.0521.0451.4631.735 EPS增增长长率率70.9%60.2%-7.2%50.2%-0.7%40.0%18.6% 股股利利2,004.002,004.002,505.001,670.002,507.693,286.124,599.225,454.53 期期初初未未分分配配利利润润0.003,906.188,596.8116,813.0030,065.1149,964.2576,040.42112,536.29 提提取取法法定定盈盈余余公公积积460.92787.601,261.371,755.002,636.103,454.394,834.725,733.83 提提取取法法定定公公益益金金230.46393.80630.68878.001,318.051,727.192,417.362,866.92 提提取取任任意意盈盈余余公公积积0.000.000.00 期期末末未未分分配配利利润润1,914.078,596.8116,813.4330,065.1149,964.2576,040.42112,536.29155,819.31 一般情景预测 资资产产负负债债表表（万万元元） 历史数据区显性期预测 会计年度截止日：12/3120022003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E 资产 货币资金21,798.0132,383.1334,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83138,707.47 短期投资0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 减：短期投资跌价准备 短期投资0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 应收票据384.001,139.13453.061,872.002,755.083,360.264,441.465,675.71 应收股利0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 应收利息0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 应收帐款679.492.410.000.000.000.000.000.00 其他应收款78.87204.3492.9446.0067.7082.57109.14139.47 减：坏帐准备 应收帐款净额758.36206.7592.9446.0067.7082.57109.14139.47 预付帐款3,151.864,334.363,862.665,127.006,951.109,144.2412,036.9415,752.61 应收补贴款0.000.000.00 存货3,781.435,399.4410,226.1214,408.0020,786.8524,992.2632,964.2842,342.51 其中:工程施工 减：存货跌价准备(含工 程亏损准备)0.000.000.000.000.000.00 存货净额3,781.435,399.4410,226.1214,408.0020,786.8524,992.2632,964.2842,342.51 待摊费用19.2915.5916.91110.00247.00414.10634.96917.20 待处理流动资产净损失 一年内到期的长期债券投资 期货保证金0.000.000.000.00319.59319.59319.59319.59 其他流动资产0.000.000.000.000.00 流流动动资资产产总总额额29,892.9543,478.4049,261.1558,140.0086,965.25103,969.18139,077.22203,854.55 长期股权投资0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 长期债权投资 长期投资合计0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 减：长期投资减值准备 长长期期投投资资净净额额0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 其中：合并价差0.000.000.00 股权投资差额 固定资产原值72,321.7875,494.11224,525.01233,788.00294,538.00326,413.00330,350.50333,819.25 减：累计折旧28,611.9732,034.4737,522.5152,013.0076,087.24102,073.97128,296.96154,728.07 固定资产净值43,709.8143,459.64187,002.50181,775.00218,450.76224,339.03202,053.54179,091.18 减：固定资产减值准备0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 固定资产净额43,709.8143,459.64187,002.50181,775.00218,450.76224,339.03202,053.54179,091.18 工程物资11,362.6724,857.862,215.5122,415.0022,415.0022,415.0022,415.0022,415.00 在建工程4,701.5548,439.930.0014,050.006,750.004,875.003,937.503,468.75 减：在建工程减值准备 固定资产清理0.00 待处理固定资产净损失 固固定定资资产产合合计计59,774.03116,757.43189,218.01218,240.00247,615.76251,629.03228,406.04204,974.93 无形资产0.0030.100.000.000.000.000.000.00 递延资产 开办费 长期待摊费用0.000.000.000.00482.00355.00228.00101.00 其他长期资产0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 其中：临时设施净值 无无形形资资产产及及其其他他资资产产合合计计0.0030.100.000.00482.00355.00228.00101.00 递延税款借项 资资产产总总额额89,666.98160,265.93238,479.16276,380.00335,063.01355,953.21367,711.26408,930.48 负债和股东权益 循循环环贷贷款款9,500.007,500.007,000.008,000.000.0016,750.660.000.00 应付票据0.000.000.002,726.003,932.884,728.556,236.868,011.22 应付帐款6,211.315,630.2725,520.6613,785.0019,615.5923,584.0431,106.8739,956.67 预收帐款(负债)3,401.524,454.575,358.659,859.0016,482.3024,560.4835,237.9048,882.50 代销商品款 应付工资0.000.000.000.00150.00150.00150.00150.00 应付福利1,194.121,351.991,580.241,575.001,600.001,600.001,600.001,600.00 应付股利1,860.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 应交税金(252.51)(181.86)(1,145.33)(341.00)3,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00 其他应交款3.076.5425.0322.00150.00150.00150.00150.00 其他应付款434.16581.65461.18601.0015,000.0015,000.0015,000.0015,000.00 预提费用0.000.000.0022.0054.3893.87146.06212.77 其他流动负债0.000.000.000.000.00 一年内到期的长期负债0.000.004,600.000.000.000.000.000.00 流流动动负负债债22,351.6719,343.1643,400.4336,249.0059,985.1489,617.6092,627.70116,963.16 长期银行贷款11,500.0054,200.00103,600.00135,933.00155,933.00115,933.0080,933.0045,933.00 应付债券0.000.000.000.000.00 长期应付款0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 专项应付款0.0023,045.0017,667.4311,835.009,478.589,478.589,478.589,478.58 住房周转金 其他长期负债0.000.000.000.000.00 长长期期负负债债合合计计11,500.0077,245.00121,267.43147,768.00165,411.58125,411.5890,411.5855,411.58 递延税款贷项0.000.000.000.00 负负债债总总额额33,851.6796,588.16164,667.86184,017.00225,396.72215,029.18183,039.28172,374.74 少数股东权益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 股本16,700.0016,700.0016,700.0025,050.0025,050.0033,050.0033,050.0033,050.00 减：已归还投资 股本净额16,700.0016,700.0016,700.0025,050.0025,050.0025,050.0025,050.0025,050.00 资本公积金35,676.0735,676.0735,701.0530,018.0030,018.0030,018.0030,018.0030,018.00 其中：补充流动资本 盈余公积金1,525.422,704.774,596.827,230.0011,184.1516,365.7323,617.8032,218.55 其中：公益金508.47901.591,532.272,410.00 未确认的投资损失0.000.000.000.000.00 未分配利润1,913.828,596.8116,813.4330,065.0049,964.2576,040.42112,536.29155,819.31 外币报表折算差额 资本汇差调整 股股东东权权益益合合计计55,815.3163,677.6573,811.3092,363.00116,216.40147,474.15191,222.09243,105.86 负负债债和和股股东东权权益益89,666.98160,265.81238,479.16276,380.00341,613.13362,503.32374,261.37415,480.60 检检查查0.000.120.000.00(6,550.11)(6,550.11)(6,550.11)(6,550.11) 资资产产负负债债率率37.75%60.27%69.05%66.58%65.98%59.32%48.91%41.49% 一般情景预测 现现金金流流量量表表 （单单位位：万万元元） 历史数据区显性区预测 会计年度截止日：12/3120042005E2006E2007E2008E2008E2009E2009E 经经营营活活动动产产生生的的现现金金流流量量 税税后后利利润润17,555.1126,360.9834,543.8748,347.1657,338.30 加加:少数股东损益0.000.000.000.000.00 处置固定、无形资产和其他长期资产的损失0.000.000.000.000.00 固定资产报废损失 财务费用633.891,805.181,249.54(1,221.41)2,271.85 投资损失(减:收益)0.000.000.000.000.00 折旧和摊销20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11 坏帐准备0.000.000.000.000.00 短期投资跌价准备0.000.000.000.000.00 存货跌价准备（含工程亏损准备）0.000.000.000.000.00 长期投资减值准备0.000.000.000.000.00 固定资产减值准备0.000.000.000.000.00 在建工程减值准备0.000.000.000.000.00 营营运运资资金金的的变变动动 应收票据的减少/(增加)(1,418.94)(883.08)(605.19)(1,081.20)(1,234.25) 应收股利的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00 应收利息的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00 应收帐款的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00 其他应收款的减少/(增加)46.94(21.70)(14.87)(26.57)(30.33) 预付帐款的减少/(增加)(1,264.34)(1,824.10)(2,193.14)(2,892.70)(3,715.67) 应收补贴款的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00 存货的减少/(增加)(4,181.88)(6,378.85)(4,205.41)(7,972.02)(9,378.22) 待摊费用的减少/(增加)(93.09)(137.00)(167.10)(220.86)(282.24) 期货保证金的减少/ (增加)0.00(319.59)0.000.000.00 其他流动资产的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00 长期待摊费用的减少/(增加)0.00(482.00)127.00127.00127.00 其他长期资产的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00 递延税款借项的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00 应付票据的增加/(减少)2,726.001,206.88795.671,508.311,774.36 应付帐款的增加/(减少)(11,735.66)5,830.593,968.457,522.838,849.79 预收帐款(负债)的增加/(减少)4,500.356,623.308,078.1810,677.4313,644.60 代销商品款的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00 应付工资的增加/(减少)0.00150.000.000.000.00 应付福利的增加/(减少)(5.24)25.000.000.000.00 应付股利的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00 应交税金的增加/(减少)804.333,341.000.000.000.00 其他应交款的增加/(减少)(3.03)128.000.000.000.00 其他应付款的增加/(减少)139.8214,399.000.000.000.00 预提费用的增加/(减少)22.0032.3839.4952.2066.70 其他流动负债的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00 长期应付款的增加/(减少)(5,832.43)(2,356.42)0.000.000.00 其他长期负债的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00 一年内到期长期负债的增加/(减少)(4,600.00)0.000.000.000.00 应付债券的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00 递延税款贷项的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00 经经营营活活动动的的现现金金流流量量17,723.0771,573.8067,603.2381,043.1495,863.02 投投资资活活动动的的现现金金流流量量 短期投资0.000.000.000.000.00 长期投资0.000.000.000.000.00 未确认的投资损失0.000.000.000.000.00 投资收益0.000.000.000.000.00 固定资产投资(51,739.00)(60,000.00)(30,000.00)(3,000.00)(3,000.00) 投投资资活活动动的的现现金金流流(51,739.00)(60,000.00)(30,000.00)(3,000.00)(3,000.00) 融融资资活活动动产产生生的的现现金金流流量量 长期贷款的增加/(减少)32,333.0020,000.00(40,000.00)(35,000.00)(35,000.00) 股利分配(1,670.00)(2,507.69)(3,286.12)(4,599.22)(5,454.53) 财务费用(633.89)(1,805.18)(1,249.54)1,221.41(2,271.85) 股份发行8,350.000.000.000.000.00 资本公积金的增加/(减少)(5,683.05)0.000.000.000.00 计入循环贷款前融资活动产生的现金流量32,696.0615,687.13(44,535.66)(38,377.81)(42,726.39) 循环贷款的增加(减少)3,287.41(8,000.00)16,750.66(16,750.66)0.00 融融资资活活动动的的现现金金流流35,983.477,687.13(27,785.00)(55,128.46)(42,726.39) 现现金金净净变变动动1,967.5419,260.939,818.2322,914.6850,136.63 期期初初现现金金余余额额34,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83 期期末末现现金金余余额额36,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83138,707.47 自自由由现现金金流流量量 (此此行行数数据据未未用用)(34,015.93)11,573.8037,603.2378,043.1492,863.02 公公司司自自由由现现金金流流FCFF EBIT20,884.0034,033.5744,259.1058,962.2473,642.30 税率19.63%19.63%19.63%19.63%19.63% EBIT*(1-税率)16,785.0527,353.7335,572.2747,389.5959,188.36 加：折旧20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11 减：资本支出55,283.6656,288.4229,873.002,873.002,873.00 减：非现金性流动资本的增加(减少)10,462.74(22,171.83)(5,696.09)(7,567.40)(9,694.75) FCFF(28,532.11)17,311.3737,382.0978,306.9892,441.23 非非现现金金性性流流动动资资本本变变化化 流动资产14,651.6921,563.0031,127.3238,313.0250,506.3865,147.08 流动负债31,800.4328,249.0059,985.1472,866.9492,627.70116,963.16 流动资本(17,148.74)(6,686.00)(28,857.83)(34,553.91)(42,121.32)(51,816.07) 非非现现金金性性流流动动资资本本变变化化10,462.74(22,171.83)(5,696.09)(7,567.40)(9,694.75) 股股权权资资本本自自由由现现金金流流FCFE 净利17,555.1126,360.9834,543.8748,347.1657,338.30 加：折旧20,429.2424,074.2425,986.7426,222.9926,431.11 加：债务的增加(减少)28,733.0012,000.00(23,249.34)(51,750.66)(35,000.00) 减：资本支出55,283.6656,288.4229,873.002,873.002,873.00 减：非现金性流动资本的增加(减少)10,462.74(22,171.83)(5,696.09)(7,567.40)(9,694.75) FCFE970.9528,318.6213,104.3527,513.8955,591.17 一般情景预测 债债务务、现现金金和和利利息息（单单位位：万万元元）2004A20052006E2007E2008E2009E 循循环环贷贷款款利利率率5.50% 期初现金余额34,609.4636,577.0055,837.9365,656.1688,570.83 当期现金流量 经营活动产生的现金流量17,723.0771,573.8067,603.2381,043.1495,863.02 投资活动产生的现金流量(51,739.00)(60,000.00)(30,000.00)(3,000.00)(3,000.00) 计入循环贷款前融资活 动产生的现金流量 32,696.0615,687.13(44,535.66)(38,377.81)(42,726.39) - - 最低现金余额36,577.0053,831.4365,656.1686,781.74