消费者服务业增加值比重演变规律研究.doc

消费者服务业增加值比重演变规律研究专 业：企业管理硕 士 生：江波指导教师：李江帆 教授 答辩日期：2005 年5 月摘 要本文是一个探索性研究，目的是揭示发达国家消费者服务业及其内部行业增加值比重的演变规律，以此作为预测中国消费者服务业发展前景的依据。到目前为止，相关研究大多数只从定性的角度分析消费者服务业发展的外部表象，而没有从定量的角度来揭示消费者服务业及其内部各行业增加值比重的演变规律。本文在服务产品理论基础上，提出了较全面的消费者服务业定义，认为消费者服务业应该理解为在私人产品市场购买的、用以满足个人和家庭的需要的服务业。本文在借助投入产出表和各国统计年鉴计算消费者服务业的增加值的基础上，从定性和定量两个角度，揭示发达国家消费者服务业产值比重的演变规律，并建立消费者服务业增加值占GDP比重与人均GDP的回归方程；从纵向和横向两个角度，总结中国消费者服务业产值比重的演变趋势。本文的主要结论包括：（1）发达国家消费者服务业增加值在GDP中的比重与人均GDP呈较弱的正相关关系。（2）发达国家零售贸易业增加值占GDP的比重与人均GDP呈较显著的正相关关系，医疗服务业增加值占GDP的比重与人均GDP呈不太显著的正相关关系，而餐饮旅馆业和教育服务业增加值占GDP的比重与人均GDP呈显著的负相关关系，社会及个人服务业和家政服务业增加值占GDP的比重与人均GDP呈不太显著的负相关关系。（3）中国消费者服务业增加值占GDP比重呈下降趋势。（4）中国消费者服务业的内部增加值结构中，教育文化艺术及广播电影电视业和房地产业在消费者服务业的比重比较大，中国消费者服务业的内部结构特点与发达国家类似。关键词：消费者服务业，投入产出表，增加值比重，演变规律Research on Evolution Laws of Consumer Services Sectors Value Added PercentageMajor: Business AdministrationName: Jiang BoSupervisor: Professor Li JiangfanAbstractThis paper is an exploratory research focusing on the evolution laws of consumer services sectors value added percentage in developed countries, which is used for projecting development of consumer services sector in China. Up to now, a majority of related research has analyzed the exterior phenomena of this sector from the qualitative angle, without inducing from the quantitative angel the evolution laws of its value added percentage as well as its internal structure. Based on Service Product Theory, this paper defines Consumer Services Sector as those service industries which provide service products purchased in private markets in order to meet the ultimate demands of the person and household. Value added of consumer services sector is computed by input-output table and statistical year books of the developed countries. From the view of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, this paper induces evolution laws of consumer services sectors value added percentage in developed countries, and constructs a regression model between value added percentage and GDP per capita. From the view of time series and cross section, this paper sums up trends of consumer services value added percentage in China.The chief conclusions of this empirical analysis are as follows: (1)In developed countries consumer services sectors value added percentage to GDP is weakly positively related to GDP per capita. (2)In developed countries retail trade industries value added percentage to consumer services sector is positively related to GDP per capita and hospital and health care services industries value added percentage to consumer services sector is not very positively related to GDP per capita. (3)In China consumer services sectors value added percentage to GDP presents a descending trend. (4)In the internal structure of consumer services value added in China, education, culture and broadcasting, film and TV industry and real estate industry amount to the biggest part. The internal structure of consumer services value added in China be similar to that of the developed industries.Key Words: Consumer services sector, Input-output table, Value added percentage, Evolution laws后记写完论文最后一章并以最快的速度email给远在新加坡的导师时已是深夜，我长久以来彷徨的心境本应释然，但我无法平静焦急的等待着导师的批阅，尤其是刚刚看完导师给同门论文的“先扬后抑”的评语，心里更是诚惶诚恐。第二天，终于收到了导师的批改意见，我不敢马上看。我在胸前画了十字后，一口气从头看到尾，看到导师对我的肯定和批评，心里的石头终于放下了一大半记得初入李师门时，李老师为我们讲授“做学问与做人”的情景如在昨日，李老师“做学问先学会做人”的道理给我上了人生以来最重要的一堂课；在李老师近三年的指导下，李老师严谨的学术风格时时敦促我在学习中严格要求自己；在和李老师出差的过程中，李老师深邃的洞察力和幽默的言谈令我钦佩万分在导师的谆谆教导之下，我在深入学习管理学理论的同时，不断的吸取经济学尤其是产业经济学的基本理论。可以说，没有导师的循循善诱、没有导师的谆谆教导，我是无法完成这篇论文的。在此，我深深的感谢恩师李江帆教授三年来对我的教诲和关心！三年的硕士研究生学习生涯，我要感谢管院的毛蕴诗教授、李新春教授、吴能全教授、卢泰宏教授、谢康教授等老师，是他们让我的理论知识更加丰富和扎实，是他们使我的思维更加缜密和开阔。魏作磊师兄多次与我畅谈，使得我对论文有了更清晰的构思；毕斗斗师姐多次与我讨论数据的处理方法，常让我有茅塞顿开之感；我多次“骚扰”顾乃