【波士顿咨询BCG】2025转型悖论企业增长遇阻时的发展之道研究报告

BCG

BUSINESSTRANSFORMATION

TheTransformation

Paradox:HowtoGrow

WhentheGrowingGetsTough

By

TuukkaSeppä

,

KristyEllmer,

AndreasHolmbom

,

DominicC.Klemmer,

Paul

Catchlove

,

MartinReeves

,

UlrichPidun

,GabeBouslov,andAdamJob

ARTICLEAPRIL16,2025

Businessleaderscannolongerrelyonatailwindtoboostgrowth.Theyfaceencroaching

constraintsonallfronts:tradewarsareerodingtheglobalizationpremiumbusinesseshave

enjoyedoverthepast30-plusyears;theeraofessentiallyfreecapital,whichWesternfirmshad

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enjoyedformorethanadecade,hasended;and,withtheongoingdemographicshi,automaticpopulation-drivengrowthisnolongeragiveninmostofthedevelopedworld.

Consequently,inthefirstquarterof2025,GDPgrowthforecastswerereviseddownwardfortheUSandEU.Achievinggrowthinthisenvironmentwillrequireadedicatedeffort—a

growth

transformation.

Unfortunately,suchtransformationshavelowoddsofsuccess:ouranalysisof1,700transformationsgloballyoverthepast20yearsshowsthatonlyaboutone-thirdaccelerategrowthinavalue-accretiveway.(SeeExhibit1.)

Successfulgrowthtransformationstendtosharesomecommonfactors,ourresearchshows.

(See

“TheTenSuccessFactors.”)

Companiesthatdeployedfiveormoreofthesekeyfactorssawnearlydoublethesuccessratecomparedtothosethatappliednone.

Justassignificantly,ourresearchrevealsthatthecurrenteconomicenvironmentshouldn’t

dissuadeleaders.Transformingforgrowthmayseemlikeanaudaciousundertakingtoday—but

we’vefoundthatthesuccessrateforsuchtransformationsisactuallyhigherintimesoflowgrowththaninotheryears.Theupshot?Companyleadershavethechancetoturnslowdownintorenewal.

ThreeParadoxesofGrowthTransformation

Theveryideaoftransformingforgrowthduringaslowdownmayseemcontradictory.Butinour

research,thecompaniesthatsucceedinthiseffortdosobyembracingparadox,notavoidingit.At

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theheartofeverysuccessfulgrowthtransformationarethreesuchtensions—eachonerepresentingakeychallengeleadersmustreconciletotiptheoddsintheirfavor.

Paradox#1:Creativityvs.Discipline.Asuccessfulgrowthtransformationrequiresfosteringanenvironmentthatbalancescreativitywithdisciplinedexecution.

Inabusinesscontextthatisnotconducivetogrowth,

innovationismorecrucialthanever.

Asa

result,asuccessfulgrowthtransformationrestsonfosteringacreativeenvironment.Ourempiricalanalysisverifiesthis:companieswithamorecreativeculture1havethreepercentagepointshigheroddsofsuccessingrowthtransformationscomparedtothebaselinesuccessrateoflessthanone-thirdacrossoursample.(Seethesidebar“AboutOurStudy.”)

AboutOurStudy

Ouranalysisisbasedonapproximately1,700transformationsoccurringaroundtheglobeincompanieswithatleast$1

billionmarketcapitalizationovertheperiodfrom2004to

2020.Transformationswereidentifiedbyannualrestructuringcostsinexcessof0.5%ofsales.

Wedefineasuccessfulgrowthtransformationasonethat

bothacceleratesgrowthrelativetoitsindustrypeersand

deliverstotalshareholderreturn(TSR)outperformance.A

company’sgrowthaccelerationisthedifferencebetweenitsindustry-adjustedgrowthrate(IAGR)inthefiveyearsaeritstransformationstartsanditsIAGRinthetwoyearsbeforeitstransformationstarts.IAGRisacompany’sannualized

growthrateoveratimeperiod,lessthemedianannualizedindustrygrowthrateoverthatsameperiod.TSR

outperformanceistheannualizedTSRthatacompany

deliversinexcessofmedianindustryTSRoverthefive-yearperiodaerthecompany’stransformationbegins.

NotethatwealsoassessedsuccessratesbasedonTSRandIAGRdevelopmentoverathree-yearperiod,findingsimilarresults.InExhibit3,three-yearperiodsuccessratesare

showntoenabletheinclusionof2020transformations.

Webasedthesuccessfactorsontheliteraturereviewand

casestudies.Thesefactorsweretranslatedintoquantitativeproxiesandanalyzedusinglogisticregression,astatistical

modelthatpredictstheprobabilityofasuccessfuloutcomewhileaccountingformultipleeffects.Wethenconvertedthe

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resultinglog-oddstoanadjustedprobabilityratecomparedto

thebaselineaveragesuccessrate.

Whileinnovationandunderlyingcapabilitiessuchasimaginationandcreativityseemlikemessy,unmanageableconstructs,theBCGHendersonInstitute’s

extensiveresearchintothesethemes

showstheycanbeharnessedsystematically:thereisnoneedtohopeforinspirationtostrikeorforageniustocomealongandsavethecompany.

Onecrucialprerequisitetofosteringimaginationistolookoutward—toidentifypatternsand

anomaliesthatsparknewideas.

Wefindthatcompaniesthatactivelylookbeyondtheir

boundaries—atissuesrelatedtotheirindustry,

geopolitics,

macroeconomics,and

sustainability,

ratherthanmerelyattheirproducts,processes,andpeople2—haveafivepercentage-pointhigherrateofsuccessintheirgrowthtransformations.

ConsiderthepathofBrooksAutomation.Originallyasemiconductorequipmentandrobotics

manufacturer,thecompanyfounditselfstrugglingtogrowintheearly2000s.Leaderslooked

beyondtheboundariesofthebusiness,studyingallthepatentsthatcitedBrooks’patentsaswellasthepatentscitingthosepatents.Thisanalysisrevealedpreviouslyuntappedopportunitiesinlifesciences,wherethesameprecisiontechnologiesusedtomanipulate

semiconductors

couldbe

appliedtohandlingbiologicalsamplesintightlycontrolledenvironments.BrooksAutomation

pivotedtowardthisnewopportunityandeventuallybecamealeaderintheemergingbiobankingindustry.

Fosteringcreativityiscrucial,butgrowthtransformationsalsorequiredisciplinedexecution.A

formalprogramwithdedicatedgovernanceandprocesses3—forexample,settingupa

transformationoffice—iscrucialtocoordinatingandtrackingprogressonchangeefforts.Thisisparticularlyimportantforgrowthinitiatives,theimpactsofwhicharehardertomeasureduetoconfoundingeffectsonthetopline.

Fosteringcreativityiscrucial,butgrowth

transformationsalsorequiredisciplinedexecution.

Whileensuringrigor,growthprogramsalsoneedtofosterinnovationbyallowingspacefor

experimentationandsomefailures.Onewayofachievingthisistoappointa

chieftransformation

officer

(CTO)withthemissionofreconcilingdisciplineandcreativity.Forexample,uponappointingDominicCuginiasCTO,KeyBanktaskedhimwithdigitizingandmodernizingthebank’sservices

using

AI—

forinstance,customer-facing

GenAI

features—whileensuringrigorousexecutionstandardsthroughoutthedigitaltransformation.

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Creatingadedicatedleadershippositionforagrowthtransformationhasfurtherbenefits:aCTOcanensurethatthechangeeffortfollowsanoverarchingstrategyratherthanbeingacollectionofad-hocinitiatives.This,forexample,waspartoftheagendaofDanielleKirgan,theexecutivein

chargeofoverseeingthetransformationofMacy’s,astheretailersoughttomodernizeitsonlineoperationsandstoreformats.4

AnotherimportantrolefortheCTOistoaddcapabilitiescrucialtotransformationsuccesstotheleadershipteam.Empirically,theappointmentofaCTOattheoutsetofthetransformationis

associatedwitharemarkable22percentagepointshighersuccessrateinoursample.5Itisnowonder,then,that

CTOhiring

hasincreasedsignificantlyinrecentyears.

Paradox2:Visionvs.Foundation.Successfullytransformingforgrowthrequiressettingoutalong-termvisionforthefirm.Butitalsomeansbuildingthefoundationsintheshorttermthatenabledeliveryonthatvision—byfreeingupresourcesandreducingpressurefromstakeholders.

Ouranalysisshowsthatadoptingalong-termmindset—looking

beyondquarterlyresults

and

towardlong-termpositioning—booststheoddsofasuccessfulgrowthtransformationbythree

percentagepoints.6Crucially,thelong-termorientationhastogobeyondwords:leadersneedto

puttheirmoneywheretheirmouthisbyinvestingin

innovation.

Ourevidencesuggeststhat

companieswithabove-averageR&Dspendingachieveasix-percentage-pointhighersuccessrateingrowthtransformations.7

Butachievinggrowthrequiresmorethandevisingpromisinginitiatives.Italsomeanscreatingtherightfoundationsintheshortterm:specifically,leadersneedtocraacompellingnarrative

regardingtheirgrowthvisionforinvestors.Thisreducespressureandensuresmanagementhas

thesupportformakingpotentiallyfundamentalbusinessmodelchanges.Ouranalysisshowsthatcompaniesabletoconvinceinvestorsofthe

value-creation

potentialoftheirtransformationsinthefirstyearoftheirjourneyshavesignificantlybetteroddsofsuccess.8

Moreover,leadersneedtorapidlyright-sizethecostbasetofundtheirgrowthinitiatives:our

researchshowsthatcompaniesthatachievehighercostefficiencygainsthanpeersinthefirstyearoftheirchangeprogramhaveathree-percentage-pointhighersuccessrateintransformingfor

growth.9Thisunderlinesthatsuccessfulandprofitablegrowthisnotonlyamindset—it’salsoaboutcreatinganefficientoperatingmodeltosupportitandtofundthejourney.

Successfulandprofitablegrowthisnotonlyamindset—it’salsoaboutcreatinganefficientoperatingmodeltosupportitandtofundthejourney.

Anexampleofatransformationthatsquaredthecircleofshort-termfoundationbuildingandlong-termvisionisthatofDeltaAirLines.Emergingfrombankruptcyin2007,thecompanyannounced

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amergerwithNorthwestAirlines,promisingtoitsinvestorsamoreefficient,globallycompetitivecarrier.Anintegrationofthecompanies’operationsledtotherealizationofsignificantcostsavingsandahealthierbalancesheetwithmoremanageabledebtlevels.

Deltathenturneditsattentiontointernationalexpansionandfleetupgradesandanoperating

disciplinetobecomethemoston-timeairlineintheUS—allsupportingthecarrierinachievingrecord-breakingprofitsin2013andgoingfromstrengthtostrengthinthesubsequentyears(untiltheCOVIDpandemichittheaviationindustry).

Paradox3:Experiencevs.Adaptability.Inaturbulentworld,transformationneedstoturnfromaone-timeeffortintoanalways-oncapability.However,ascompaniesembarkonrepeatedchangejourneys,theyneedtoadapttheirapproachtochangealongsidethechallengestheyface.

Ourresearchsuggeststhatcompaniesthathavepreviouslyembarkedonasuccessfulgrowth

transformationwithinour20-yearsampletimeframeincreasetheirchancesofbeingsuccessful

againby11percentagepoints.Thisunderlinesthefactthat,justascompaniesneedtotransformmorefrequentlytoadapttonewrealitiesandtopreemptdisruption,it’scrucialtocreateacultureinwhichchangeisseenasthenorm—likeAmazon’sfamed“Day1”ethos.

Moreover,throughrepeatedchangeefforts,firmscanbuildupaknowledgebaseofsuccessful

tacticsthattheycanuseindifferentsituations.Thisiscrucial,as

ourresearch

showsthatdifferenttactics—forexample,usingincentives,runningeducationprogramsonthebenefitsofthechange,orrelyingonsocialcontagiondrivenby“changechampions”—areeffectiveindifferentsituations,dependingontheorganizationalsetupandthekindofchangebeingpursued.

Assuch,companiesshouldbecarefultonotmerelyapplythesametried-and-testedapproachoverandoveragainbuttoadapttheirapproachtochangealongsidethechallengestheyarefacing.

Our

research

suggeststhatonly20%offirmsescapethis“successtrap”—anoverrelianceonproven

methods—byembracingadaptabilityintheirchangestrategy.

TheTenSuccessFactors

Instudyingthecompaniesthathaveeffectivelynavigatedthesethreeparadoxes,we’veidentifiedtendistinctfactorsthatconsistentlydrivesuccessfulgrowthtransformations.Somefactorsare

prerequisitecapabilities—suchasfosteringacreativecultureandinvestingininnovation—while

othersfallundertheumbrellaoftransformationexecution,suchassettingupaformalprogramorappointingachieftransformationofficer.(SeeExhibit2.)

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Eachofthesuccessfactorsoutlinedabove,ontheirown,canimprovetheoddsofrunninga

successfulgrowthtransformation.However,ouranalysisalsoshowsthattheeffectsofthesefactorsarecompounding.Transformationsthatemploymultiplesuccessfactors—forexample,fosteringalong-termviewandinvestingininnovation,settingupadedicatedchangeprogram,andappointingaCTO—cansubstantiallyincreasetheirratesoftransformationsuccess.(Seethesidebar

“DefiningtheTenSuccessFactors.”)

DefiningtheTenSuccessFactors

Thesuccessfactorsaredefinedasfollows:

·Fosteracreativeculture:Firmearningscallsshowabove-averagementionsofcreativity-relatedterms

relativetoindustrypeersinthetwoyearsleadinguptothetransformation.

·Lookbeyondtheboundariesofyourfirm:Firm

earningscallsshowabove-averagementionsofindustry,geopolitical,macroeconomic,andotherrelatedterms

relativetoindustrypeersinthetwoyearsleadinguptothetransformation.

·Setupaformalprogram:Firmspendingon

restructuringwasgreaterthan1.5%ofsalesintheyearthetransformationstarted.

·Appointachieftransformationofficer:Thefirmhadachieftransformationofficerintheroleintheyearthatthetransformationstarted.

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·Adoptalong-termmindset:Firmearningscallsshowabove-averagementionsoftermsrelatedtolong-term

mindsetrelativetoindustrypeersinthetwoyears

leadinguptothetransformation.

·Investininnovation:Thefirmhadabove-averageR&Dspendingasapercentageofsalesrelativetoindustry

peersinthefiveyearsaertransformationstarted.

·Rapidlyright-sizethecostbase:Thefirmhadabove-averagecostefficiencygainsinthefirstyearofthe

transformation,reducingtheircost-of-revenueratiomore

thanindustrypeersrelativetothepretransformation

baseline.

·Cra什acompellingnarrative:Thefirmhadhigher

“expectations”shareofTSRdecompositioninyearone

ofthetransformationrelativetoindustrypeers.

·Buildtransformationexperience:Thefirmhashada

previouslysuccessfultransformationintheanalysis

timeframe(2004to2020).

·Transformfromapositionofstrength:Thefirmwasinthetop30%withinitsindustryforTSRperformancein

theyearbeforethetransformation.

Overall,theaveragetransformationsuccessrateincreasesfrom28%—forfirmsthatdonotapplyanyofthefactors—to55%forthosethatapplyfiveormorefactors.Giventhatlessthanafihofthefirmsinoursampleleveragemorethantwoofthesefactorsintheirtransformations,thereissignificantroomforfirmstosetthemselvesapartfromthecrowd.

WhyNowIstheTimetoTransformforGrowth

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Thereisafinalandcriticalparadoxforchangeleaderstowraptheirheadsaround:periodsoflowaggregategrowthandhigheconomicuncertaintyseemtobegoodtimesforkick-starting

companies’individualgrowthjourneys.

Forexample,wefoundthat,ofthetransformationprogramsinitiatedduringthefinancialcrisisof2008and2009,33%achievedvalue-accretivegrowthoutperformance—exceedingtheaverage

successrateof28%duringyearsofhigheraggregategrowthinoursample.ThecontrastisevenmorestarkfortheEurozonecrisis(2012)andtheoutbreakoftheCOVID-19pandemic(2020),inwhicharemarkable39%and43%oftransformationsinitiatedfoundsuccessoverathree-year

timeframe.(SeeExhibit3.)

Therearegoodreasonswhyinitiatingagrowthtransformationmaybeparticularlyvaluable

againstachallengingbackdrop.Forone,crisisperiodshaveadisproportionateeffectonlong-termperformance:

ourresearch

showsthatthegapbetweenwinnersandloserswithinanindustry

widenssignificantlyintimesofcrisis.Asaresult,outperformanceduringrecessionarytimescontributessignificantlytooveralllong-termoutperformance.

Suchoutperformanceisdrivenbygrowth,withourresearchalsoshowingthat,overafive-year

period,morethanhalfoftotalshareholderreturn(TSR)canbeattributedtosalesgrowth—withinvestorexpectations,costreductions,andchangesinoperatingmarginsmakinguptherest.Overaten-yearhorizon,nearlythree-quartersofTSRisdrivenbysalesgrowth.Putdifferently:growth

willgetyouaheadcompetitivelyintimesofcrisis.

Moreover,growthcanbolsterresilience,whichisparticularlyvaluableinturbulenttimes.Whileresilienceistraditionallythoughtofasadefensive,

operationalstrategy,

thisis

shortsighted:

investinginmodularsupplychainsandcashbuffersisimportant,butsoistheabilitytoshapethe“newnormal”—whichoenemergesaeraturbulentperiod—toyouradvantage.Thisisexactlywhatatransformationaimedatrenewinggrowthissetuptodo.

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Crisisperiodshaveadisproportionateeffectonlong-termperformance.

Therearemanyexamplesofthis:ChinesemarketplaceAlibaba,originallyfocusedonfacilitatinginternationalsalesofChinesegoods,launcheditsdomestice-commerceplatformTaobaowhenthe2003SARSepidemicravagedAsiaandspurredinterestinonlinepurchasing;Taobaoisnowoneofthelargestonlineshoppingplatformsintheworld.

Amazon,aerlosingmorethan90%ofitsmarketvalueduringthedotcomcrash,initiateditspivotfromstoretomarketplace,openingitsplatformtothird-partysellersin2001;theynowaccountforabout60%ofsalesontheplatform.Starbucks,facingdrasticreductionsinstorevisitsduetothe

pandemic,investedinitsdrive-throughandmobileorderingofferings,whichnowconstitutemorethan30%oforders.

Finally,ouranalyseshaveshown,

time

and

again,

thatthereisabenefittopreemptingthenext

downturn.Initiatingagrowthtransformationfromapositionofstrengthmeansbeingbetterabletoshapethejourney,ratherthanhavingtoreacttoexternalpressure.Ourempiricalanalysis

underlinesthis:growthtransformationsinitiatedwhileTSRisstillaheadofindustryaverageshaveafive-percentage-pointhigherrateofsuccess.

Manyoftheworld’smostvaluablecompanieshavetakenthistoheartandaremastersof

disruptingtheirownlucrativerecipes.Forexample,NvidiaembracedtensorcoresdesignedforAItaskswhileitscoregamingbusinesswasstillgrowing;ApplemovedtodevelopitsownchipswhileitscollaborationwithIntelwasstillyieldinggrowingmarketsharesinnotebooks;andAdobe

movedtoacloud-basedsubscriptionmodelforitscreativesuitewhileitsdisk-basedsaleswerestillrising.

Growthtransformationsarehardtogetright,butcompanyleaderscantipthescalesintheirfavorbyreconcilingtheinherentparadoxes.Andthere’snotimelikethepresent.

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Authors

©2025BostonConsultingGroup12

TuukkaSeppä

ManagingDirector&SeniorPartner;GlobalLeader,BCGTransformPractice

Helsinki

AndreasHolmbom

ManagingDirector&Partner

Philadelphia

PaulCatchlove

SeniorDirector–BCG

Transform

Helsinki

UlrichPidun

Partner&Director,BCG

HendersonInstituteFellow

Frankfurt

KristyEllmer

ManagingDirector&Partner

Boston

DominicC.

Klemmer

ManagingDirector&Partner

Cologne

MartinReeves

ManagingDirector&SeniorPartner,ChairmanoftheBCGHendersonInstitute

SanFrancisco-BayArea

GabeBouslov

Associate

Chicago

AdamJob

StrategyLabDirector,BCGHendersonInstitute

Munich

©2025BostonConsultingGroup13

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