cbo -美国其他外国国民移民增加对国会预算办公室基线的影响 Effects on CBOs Baseline of the Increase in Immigration Among Other Foreign Nationals

congressionalBudgetoffice

NonpartisanAnalysisfortheU.S.congress

EffectsonCBO’sBaselineofthe

November21,2024

IncreaseinImmigrationAmongOtherForeignNationals

Presentationatthe72ndAnnualEconomicOutlookConferenceoftheUniversityofMichigan’sResearchSeminarinQuantitativeEconomics

JaegerNelson,ChiefoftheFiscalStudiesUnitMacroeconomicAnalysisDivision

Forinformationabouttheconference,see

/econ/rsqe/conference

.Thispresentationdescribesprojectionspublishedearlierin2024.SeeCongressionalBudgetOffice,EffectsoftheImmigrationSurgeontheFederalBudgetandtheEconomy(July2024),

/publication/60165

,andTheDemographicOutlook:2024to2054(January2024),

/publication/59697

.

TheIncreaseinImmigrationAmongOtherForeignNationals

ThenumberofpeopleenteringtheUnitedStateshasincreasedsharplyinrecentyears.InCBO’sprojection,thatincreaseinimmigrationboostseconomicgrowthandreducesthesizeofthebudgetdeficitoverthe2024–2034projectionperiod.

Thispresentationdescribesthedemographiccharacteristicsofthepeopleinthe

immigrationsurgeandtheeffectsofthesurgeonCBO’sprojectionofthefollowing:

Grossdomesticproduct;

Compensationandwages;

Interestrates,unemployment,andinflation;and

Thefederalbudget.

1

CBO’sProjectionofNetImmigration

andtheCharacteristicsofImmigrantsintheSurge

2

CategoriesofImmigration

NetimmigrationisthenumberofpeoplewhoentertheUnitedStatesinagiven

yearminusthenumberwholeaveinthatyear.CBOgroupsthoseimmigrantsintothreecategories:

TheLPR+categoryincludeslawfulpermanentresidents(LPRs)pluspeoplewhoareeligibletoapplytobecomeLPRsonthebasisoftheircurrentstatus,suchasasyleesandrefugees.

TheINAnonimmigrantcategoryreferstopeopleadmittedasnonimmigrantsundertheImmigrationandNationalityAct(INA),includingstudentsand

temporaryworkers.

Theother-foreign-national(OFN)categoryconsistsofpeopleintheUnitedStateswhoarenotinthefirsttwocategoriesandwhohavenotsubsequently

becomeU.S.citizensorreceivedLPR,asylee,ornonimmigrantstatus—suchaspeoplewhoenteredtheUnitedStatesillegallyandpeoplewhowere

permittedtoenterthroughtheuseofparoleauthorityandwhomaybeawaitingproceedingsinimmigrationcourt.

3

NetImmigration,byCategory

InCBO’sprojections,net

immigrationofpeopleinthe

other-foreign-nationalcategoryis2.4millionpeoplein2023and

2024;after2024,itfallstoalevelmoreconsistentwithhistorical

experience—200,000peopleperyear.NetimmigrationofOFNs

returnstothatlevelinlargepartbecausetheprojectionsare

subjecttosignificantuncertainty.

Totalnetimmigrationis3.3millionpeoplein2024,2.6millionpeoplein2025,and1.8millionpeoplein2026,inCBO’sprojections.It

averages1.1millionpeopleperyearoverthe2027–2054period.

INA=ImmigrationandNationalityAct;LPR=lawfulpermanentresident.4

DemographicCharacteristicsofImmigrantsintheSurge

InCBO’sestimation,thedemographiccharacteristicsofimmigrantsinthesurgedifferfromthoseofthegeneralpopulation:

Immigrantsinthesurgeareyounger,onaverage,andaremoreoftenmalethanpeopleinthegeneralpopulation.

Theyhavelowerlevelsofeducationalattainment,onaverage,thanthegeneralpopulation.

–Inthegeneralpopulation,40percentofpeoplehaveahighschooldiplomaorless,and60percenthaveatleastsomecollege.

–AbouthalfofOFNshaveahighschooldiplomaorless,andabouthalfhaveatleastsomecollege,CBOestimates.

5

DemographicCharacteristicsofImmigrantsintheSurge

(Continued)

ImmigrantsinthesurgehaveloweraverageweeklywagesonarrivalintheUnitedStatesthandopeopleinthegeneralpopulationwithsimilarlevelsofeducationalattainment:

–Thosewhohaveahighschooldiplomaorlessearnroughly15percentlessthantheirsimilarlyeducatedcounterpartsinthegeneralpopulation.

–Thosewithatleastsomecollegeearnroughly30percentlessthantheirsimilarlyeducatedcounterpartsinthegeneralpopulation.

Overtime,theaveragewagesofpeopleinthesurgepopulationconvergeonthoseofthegeneralpopulationwithineducationalgroups.

6

EffectsoftheImmigrationSurge

onCBO’sProjectionofGrossDomesticProduct

7

EffectofImmigrationonCBO’sEconomicBaseline

Thesurgeinimmigrationincreasesthedemandforgoodsandservicesandthesupplyoflaborandcapitalservices.InCBO’sbaseline,thesurgeincreases

nominalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)by$8.9trillion,or2.4percent,overthe2024–2034period.Thatincreaseisattributabletofivesources:

Thesizeofthepopulation,

Theaveragerateofparticipationinthelaborforce,

Thecompositionofemployment,

Innovation-relatedproductivity,and

Transitoryfactors.

InCBO’sassessment,thesurgeinimmigrationincreasestotalcompensationandreducesaveragecompensationperhour.Theeffectonwagesdiffersforpeople

withvariouslevelsofeducationalattainment.

Additionally,inCBO’sestimates,thesurgeinimmigrationincreasesinterestratesbyroughly0.1percentagepointsin2034andmodestlyincreasesinflationand

theunemploymentrateoverthe2024–2034period,onaverage.

NominalGDPiseconomicoutputmeasuredincurrent-yeardollars.8

ACounterfactualDemographicProjectionofNetImmigration

CBOconstructeda

counterfactualdemographicprojectionthatexcludestherecentandprojectedsurgeintheimmigrationofOFNs.

Toquantifytheeffectofthesurgeontheeconomy,CBOsubtractedtheflowofnet

immigrationofOFNsinthecounterfactualprojection

fromtheflowinthebaseline.

9

ChangesintheLaborForceParticipationRateofImmigrantsinthe

SurgeAfterArrival

Whenimmigrantsinthesurgefirstarrive,theirlaborforceparticipationrate(LFPR)islowerthanitwillultimatelybebecauseittakestimeforpeopletoobtainwork

authorizationsandfindwork.Overthefirstninemonths,thatrateincreasesquickly:

InCBO’sassessment,abouthalfofimmigrantsinthesurgereceiveworkauthorizationaboutsixmonthsafterenteringtheUnitedStates,onaverage.

Someimmigrantsfindworkwithoutworkauthorization.

Afterninemonths,theaveragelaborforceparticipationrateofimmigrantsinthesurgeis

higherthantheaveragerateinthegeneralpopulation,CBOprojects,becauseofdifferencesbetweenthosegroupsinage,sex,andLFPRsbyageandsex.

Forexample,menoverage30inthesurgehavehigherLFPRsthantheircounterpartsinthegeneralpopulation.

Womeninthesurge,bycontrast,havelowerLFPRsthantheircounterpartsinthegeneralpopulation,regardlessofage.

10

EffectoftheImmigrationSurgeonLaborForceParticipation

Between2021and2024,thelaborforceparticipationrateofthegeneralpopulationin

CBO’sbaselineislowerthaninthecounterfactualscenario

withoutthesurge.

By2025,theLFPRofthat

populationishigherthanit

otherwisewouldbebecause

moreimmigrantsinthesurgehavebeenintheUnitedStatesforninemonthsorlonger.

Beyond2034(notshown),the

differencebetweenLFPRsinthebaselineprojectionandinthecounterfactualprojectiondecreasesasthesurge

populationages.

LFPR=laborforceparticipationrate.11

EffectoftheImmigrationSurgeontheSizeoftheLaborForce

InCBO’sbaselineprojection,

mostoftheincreaseinthesizeofthelaborforcecomingfromthesurgeinimmigrationoccursbetween2024and2026.By

2034,thesurgeinimmigrationincreasesthesizeofthelaborforceby5.8millionpeople.

Theincreaseinthesizeofthepopulationaccountsforabout80percentofthetotalboosttothelaborforcein2034.

Thehigherratesoflaborforceparticipationamongimmigrantsaccountsfortherest.

12

Innovation-RelatedProductivity

InCBO’sassessment,peoplewithacollegedegreewhoworkinscience,technology,engineering,andmathematics(STEM)occupationsare

disproportionatelylikelytocontributetoinnovation-relatedactivitiesthatwillincreasepotentialtotalfactorproductivity(TFP)growth.

CBO’sassessmentofthateffectdependsonthreeestimates:

Thenumberofcollege-educatedSTEMworkersinthesurge,

ThecontributionofeachSTEMworkerintheimmigrantsurgetopotentialTFPovertheirworkinglife,and

ThetimepathofthatcontributiontopotentialTFP.

PotentialTFPisthepotentialproductivityoflaborandcapital,excludingtheeffectsofbusinesscycles.13

Innovation-RelatedProductivity(Continued)

InCBO’sestimates,immigrantsproduceinnovationsshortlyafterarrival,withaone-yeardelayforjobmatching(Prato2023;

Bernstein2022).

ContributionstopotentialTFParemodeledoveranaveragecareerlengthof20yearsafterarrivalintheUnitedStates.

Althoughinnovationsmayoccurshortlyafterarrival,theeffectofthoseinnovationsonpotential

TFPoccurswithalag,inCBO’sassessment(Koganetal.2017).

STEM=science,technology,engineering,andmathematics;TFP=totalfactorproductivity.14

Innovation-RelatedProductivity(Continued)

Thesurgeinimmigrationis

projectedtoaddapproximately200,000STEMworkerstothelaborforcebytheendof2026;thelargestflowsoccurin2023and2024.

Innovationsmadebythose

STEMworkers,includingtheireffectonotherworkers’

productivity,boostTFPgrowthby4.5basispointstowardtheendofthe10-yearperiod.

STEM=science,technology,engineering,andmathematics;TFP=totalfactorproductivity.15

EmploymentCompositionEffect

Theemploymentcompositioneffectaccountsforthelower-than-averagelevelsofeducationalattainmentandworkexperienceintheU.S.labormarketamongpeopleinthesurge.That

compositioneffectiscapturedinCBO’sbaselinethroughachangeintotalfactorproductivity.

InCBO’sassessment,theemploymentcompositioneffectpartiallydiminishesovertime,consistentwithassimilationobservedinwagedata.Withineducationalgroups,theaveragewagesofpeopleinthesurgepopulationconvergeonthoseofthetotalpopulationoveraneight-yearperiod.

16

CombiningtheInnovationandEmploymentCompositionEffects

InCBO’sprojections,immigrants

inthesurgeaffectpotentialTFPgrowththroughaninnovation

effectandacompositionaleffect.

Theinnovationeffectaccountsfortheboosttoinnovation

resultingfromanincreaseinthenumberofSTEMworkers.

Thecompositionaleffect

accountsfordifferencesin

educationandworkexperiencebetweenimmigrantsinthesurgeandthegeneralpopulation.

TFP=totalfactorproductivity.17

EffectsofImmigrationonNominalandPotentialGDP

Theincreaseinthepopulationisthelargestdriveroftheincreasein

potentialGDP.From2024to2034:

PopulationboostspotentialGDPby$7.8trillion,

HigherLFPRsamong

immigrantsincreasepotentialGDPby$1.5trillion,

Anincreaseininnovation-relatedproductivityincreasespotential

GDPby$600billion,and

Theeffectoftheemployment

compositiondecreasespotentialGDPby$1.1trillion.

Inadditiontothoseeffectson

potentialGDP,transitoryfactorsslightlyboostnominalGDP.

TFP=totalfactorproductivity.PotentialGDPisthemaximumsustainableoutputoftheeconomy.Thepopulationeffectwascalculatedasthoughthesurgepopulation’scharacteristics

werethesame,onaverage,asthoseoftheoverallpopulation.18

ContributionofComponentsofRealGDP

By2034,thesurgeinimmigrationincreasesrealGDPby2.9percent.Onaverage,overthe2024–2034

period:

Personalconsumption

expendituresaccountfor1.2percentofgrowth,

Residentialinvestment

accountsfor0.4percent,

Nonresidentialfixedinvestmentaccountsfor0.4percent,

Governmentconsumptionandinvestmentaccountfor

0.2percent,and

Netexportsoffsetthatgrowthby0.1percent.

a.Includeshomeconstruction,renovations,andbrokers’commissions.

b.Alsoknownasbusinessfixedinvestment.Includesbusinesses’purchasesofequipment,structures,andintellectualpropertyproducts,suchassoftware.19

EffectsoftheImmigrationSurge

onCBO’sProjectionof

CompensationandWages

20

EffectonTotalCompensationandCompensation

per

Hour

Thesurgeinimmigration

increasestotalcompensationoverthe30-yearprojectionperiod.

From2021to2031,thesurge

reducestotalcompensationperhourintheeconomybecause

immigrantshavelowerlevelsofeducationalattainmentandearnlowerwagesonarrivalthan

domesticworkers.

Overtime,increasesin

productivityandtheconvergenceofimmigrants’wagestoward

thoseofdomesticworkersboostaveragecompensationperhour.

21

EffectonWages

Thesurgeinitiallyslowsthegrowthofaveragecompensationperhour,becauserecentarrivalsearnbelow-averagewages,inCBO’sassessment.After2031,thesurgeincreasesthegrowthinaveragecompensationperhourfortworeasons:

Theaveragewagesofpeopleinthesurgepopulationconvergeonthoseofthetotalpopulation—withineducationalgroups—overtime,and

IncreasesinTFPgrowthstemmingfromhigherratesofinnovationincreaseaveragewages.

22

EffectonWages(Continued)

WagegrowthofpeopleintheUnitedStateswhoarenotpartofthesurge—primarilyU.S.citizens—decreasesslightlythrough2026beforeincreasing

thereafterbecauseoftheincreaseinproductivity.Theeffectvariesforpeoplewithdifferentlevelsofeducationalattainment:

Forpeoplewithahighschooldiplomaorless,wagegrowthinitiallyslowsbecauseoftheincreaseinthesupplyofworkerswithsimilarskills.

Forpeoplewithatleastsomecollege,wagegrowthisgenerallyunchangedinitiallybutincreasesovertime.Theincreaseinthenumberofworkerswithlesseducationincreasesthedemandforpeoplewithmoreeducationtoworkwiththem—pushinguptheirwagesandroughlyoffsettingthedownward

pressurestemmingfromagreatersupplyofworkerswithsimilarskills.

23

EffectsoftheImmigrationSurge

onCBO’sProjectionof

InterestRates,Unemployment,

andInflation

24

EffectoftheImmigrationSurgeonInterestRates

Short-terminterestratesinitiallydeclinefollowingasmallincreaseintheunemploymentrateandanegligiblechangeintherateofinflation.

Overtheprojectionperiod,long-terminterestratesincreasemorethanthey

wouldhavewithoutasurgefollowinganincreaseintherateofreturnoncapital.Therateofreturnoncapitalincreasesasaresultofthefollowing:

Fastergrowthofthelaborforce,

FastergrowthinTFP,and

Greaterdemandforresidentialinvestment.

Overtime,long-terminterestrate