美国可再生能源行业的机遇与挑战（英文版）

Agreatdeal.Better.

CHALLENGESAND

OPPORTUNITIESIN

THEUSRENEWABLEENERGYSECTOR

TABLEOFCONTENTS

4

Introduction

6

1:Capacity

10

2:SectoralShifts

14

3:Policylandscape

18

4:Mergersandacquisitions

2

0

Conclusion

s

2CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIESINTHEUSRENEWABLEENERGYSECTOR

INTRODUCTION

Theenergytransitionisadvancingacrosstheglobe;theUSisoneofitsstandardbearers.Thisreportexaminesthetechnological,regulatoryandcommercialforcesthataredrivingtheworld’slargesteconomytowardsagreenerfuture.

In2010,5%ofpowerintheUSAgridcamefromrenewablesources–definedasthe

totalofphotovoltaicsolar,thermalsolar,wind,geothermal,smallhydroandbiopower.In2035,thisfigurewillhit50%.1Whileasmallnumberofbighitterswillbattleitout

tospearheadtheenergytransitioninthecomingdecades–alongsidetheUS,China,

Germany,IndiaandAustraliaareexpectedtoaccountfornearlythree-quartersofall

renewablecapacityaddedbetween2022and2035–thereislittledoubttheUSwillplayaleadingrole.Aconfluenceoftechnological,regulatoryandcommercialforcesmeansthat,evenamidgeopoliticalandeconomicinstability,America’srenewableenergy

marketremainsoneoftheworld’smostvibrant.

ThisreportputsthetrendsdominatingUSrenewablesunderamicroscope.Itbegins

byexaminingoverallcapacity,drawingonthelatestresearchtomapthechanging

trajectoryofAmericanenergy.Itthenlooksattherapidevolutionofthosesectorsmostresponsivetotheriseofrenewables,includinghydrogenenergy,electricvehiclesandbatterystorage.Anassessmentofthepoliticalenvironmentfollows,evaluatingsupportstructuresthathavebeenputinplacefortheenergytransition–andtheirdurability.

Finally,analysisofmergersandacquisitions(M&A)activityshedslightonhowthecommercialworldisrespondingtothesetrends.

Altogether,itpaintsapictureofadynamicsector–butalsoonefacingitsfairshareofchallenges.ThereislittledoubtthatrenewableswillgrowinAmerica.Butwhetherit

becomesagreensuperpower,orisforcedtosettleforthestatusofrenewablealso-ran,willdependonhowfaritcanexploittheopportunitiesaheadandsuccessfullynavigatethepitfalls.

1.“TheUnitedStatesPowerMarket:Outlookto2035,”GlobalDatareport,January2024.

4CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIESINTHEUSRENEWABLEENERGYSECTOR

CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIESINTHEUSRENEWABLEENERGYSECTOR

1:CAPACITY

Therenewableenergymarketin

NorthAmericaisundergoingconstanttransformation.TheUSAisthe

trailblazer;capacityhasexpanded

rapidlythankstoarangeoffederal

andstate-levelinitiativescreatingafertileenvironmentforgrowth.Theseinitiativescontinuetospurexpansionandmoreareontheway–butsotooaresomepotentialstumblingblocks.

TheUSgovernment’scommitmenttorenewableenergyisreflectedinseveralkeypoliciesandregulatorymeasures.TheEnergyPolicy

Actof2005-specificallySection

203-mandatesthatthefederal

governmentconsumeatleast7.5%ofitstotalelectricityfromrenewablesources.IncentiveprogramssuchastheProductionTaxCredit(PTC)and

InvestmentTaxCredit(ITC)havebeenpivotalindrivinginvestmentinwindandsolarpower.

Atthestatelevel,RenewablePortfolioStandards(RPS)requireutilitiesto

sourceacertainpercentageoftheirpowerfromrenewablesources.

MoststatesnowhaveRPSonthe

statutebooks,andthestandardsaresupplementedbyRenewableEnergyCertificates(RECs),allowingutilitiestotradecreditstomeettheirRPS

obligations.

Thethirdsectionofthisreport

examinesUSpolicyindepth,

includingadditionalinitiatives–

notablytheInflationReductionAct

(IRA)–thathaveoverhauledthe

energylandscapeatbothstateandfederallevels.Buttheheadlineis

clear:USrenewableenergypolicieshavehadthecollectiveeffectof

precipitatingaboominrenewable

capacity.In2010,solarphotovoltaic(PV)capacitywasamere2.1GW.

By2022,ithadsurgedto141.4GW,

reflectingacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of41.7%.Projections

indicatethatsolarPVcapacitywill

continuetogrowataCAGRof14.6%,reaching923.1GWby2035.SolarPV’sshareoftherenewableenergymixisexpectedtoincreasefrom45.1%in2022to72.1%by2035.Offshorewindisstartingfromalowerbase,but

isexpectedtogrowatastaggering

CAGRof62%between2023and2035.By2035,renewablesareforecasttoaccountfor62%ofNorthAmerica’spowercapacitymix,upfrom36%in2023.SolarPVandonshorewindwillbetheprimarydrivers,withCAGRsof14.6%and5.4%respectively.2

TheEnergyPolicyActof

2005-specificallySection203-

mandatesthat thefederalgovernment

consumeat

least7.5%ofitstotalelectricityfromrenewable

sources.

ProjectionsindicatethatsolarPVcapacitywillcontinuetogrowataCAGRof14.3%,reaching923.1GWby2035.

2.“TheUnitedStatesPowerMarket:Outlookto2035,”GlobalDatareport,January2024.

6CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIESINTHEUSRENEWABLEENERGYSECTOR

Balancingoptimismandrealism

WhiletheoutlookforrenewableenergyacrosstheUSlooksrosy,several

challengesneedtobeaddressedtoturnboldcapacitypredictionsintoreality.VyakaranamPavanKumarisananalystinGlobalData’spowerdivision.“Risingcosts,inflationarypressures,supplychainlimitations,andanexpandingbacklogofrenewableenergyprojectsawaitinggridconnectionrepresentsignificant

Tomitigate

therisksof

cyberattacksandmanageintricatenetworksand

distribution

systems,adigitaltransformationisimperative.

obstaclestothegrowthofrenewableenergyintheUS,”hesays.“Tomitigatetherisksofcyberattacksandmanageintricatenetworksanddistributionsystems,adigitaltransformationisimperative.”

Continuedpolicyaidandfinancialincentivesforbusinessesbigandsmallwillbecrucialinmaintainingthemomentumofrenewableenergygrowth.Anddigitaltransformationofenergyinfrastructureisessentialtohelpcombatnovelthreats;gridmanagementmustbeenhancedtobothmitigatecyberrisksandenable

theefficientintegrationofrenewableenergysources.TheFederalgovernmentclearlyrecognizesthesechallengesasapriority.TheDepartmentforEnergyhas,forinstance,pledged$245milliontoenhancethecybersecurityofcleanenergytechnologiesandtheenergysupplychain.

RenewableenergycapacityinNorthAmericaispoisedforsubstantialgrowth.

Supportivepolicies,technologicaladvancementsandincreasinginvestmentwillallhelp.WithsolarPVandwindpowerleadingthecharge,asignificantshiftintheregion’senergymixisunderway–iftheroadblockstorampingupcapacitycanbeavoided.Iftheyare,itwillhavesignificantspillovereffectsforawhole

rangeofnewandgrowingindustries.Itistothesethenextsectionturns.

Production(mmgy)

Figure1:NorthAmericarenewablefuelproductioncapacity,2018-2030

(millionsofgallonsperannum)

16,000

2018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

UnitedStatesCanada

Figure1:RenewablefuelispoisedformassiveexpansioninNorthAmericaintherun-upto2030,withtheUStakingacommandinglead.Source:“NorthAmericaEnergyTransition:SectorsandCompaniesDrivingDevelopment,”GlobalDatareport,March2024..

CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIESINTHEUSRENEWABLEENERGYSECTOR

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

2:SECTORALSHIFTS

Astheshifttowardsrenewables

gatherspaceinNorthAmerica,so

toodoawholerangeofindustries

thatwillsupportandbenefitfrom

theenergytransition.Examplesof

thesesectorsincludecarboncapture,utilisationandstorage(CCUS),

hydrogen,energystorageandelectricvehicles(EVs).Incumbentsandnewbusinessesalikewillbenefitfromthehugeopportunitiescreatedbythe

growthofthesenascentindustries.

CCUS

NorthAmericaisagloballeaderin

CCUStechnology.Itaccountedfor

63%oftheworld’sCCUScapabilitiesin2021,withtheUSplayingapivotalrole;207projectsarecurrentlyinthepipelineacrossthecountry,andtheyareexpectedtoaddover240milliontonnesperannum(mtpa)ofcapacityby2030.TotalNorthAmericanCCUScapacityisprojectedtoreach278

mtpaby2030,asignificantincreasefromthe45mtpaglobalcapacity

recordedattheendof2021.WithCO2storage,powergenerationandbluehydrogenproductionallsub-sectorsthatwillbenefitfromtheriseofCCUS,itpointstoabrightfuturerightacrosstherenewablevaluechain.3

Hydrogen

Hydrogenenergy’spotentialismorespeculativecomparedtoother

renewables.Butcommercialand

regulatoryactivityaroundhydrogenacrossNorthAmericasuggeststherewardsmerittherisks.Canada

hasannouncedtheworld’stwo

largestgreenhydrogenprojects,byGreenHydrogenInternational,eachwithacapacityof43mtpa.Theseprojectswillsignificantlybolster

NorthAmerica’shydrogenmarket,facilitatingtheestablishmentof

hydrogenexporttraderelationshipsandscalingregionalelectrolyser

productioncapacity.

Acrossthecontinent,hydrogen

capacityisexpectedtogrowata

CAGRof84%between2024and

2030.Thecompletionofanumberoflarge-scaleprojectswillbethemaindriverofthisgrowth.CompanieslikeAirProductsandChemicalsIncare

emergingassignificantcontributors,withmultipleprojectsinthepipeline.IntheUS,theDepartmentofEnergypledged$52.5millionin2021tofund31projectsadvancingnext-generationcleanhydrogentechnologiesand

tosupporttheHydrogenEnergy

C2

TotalNorth

American

CCUS

capacityis

projectedto

reach278mtpaby2030.

NorthAmerica’senergystoragecapacityis

expectedtoexceed29GWby2030,growingataCAGRof23%between2021and2030.

3.“NorthAmericaEnergyTransition:SectorsandCompaniesDrivingDevelopment,”GlobalDatareport,March2024.

10CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIESINTHEUSRENEWABLEENERGYSECTOR

Earthshotinitiative.Thegoalisthat,by2031,thecostofhydrogenwillhit$1perkilogram.Ifmet,itspotentialtoprovidepoweracrossawhole

rangeofareaswhereithashithertoprovedprohibitivelyexpensivewillconsiderablyexpand.4

Storage

Optimisingenergystorageiscrucialformanagingtheintermittencyof

renewableenergysources;windandsolarpowerareatthemercyofthe

weather.NorthAmerica’senergy

storagecapacityisexpectedto

exceed29GWby2030,growingataCAGRof23%between2021and2030.Batterystorage,particularlylithium-iontechnology,willdominatethis

growth,accountingfor97%ofstoragecapacity.TheUnitedStatesleadsinlithium-ionpipelinecapacitywith28GWofupcomingprojects.

Investmentinemergingbattery

chemistriesandhydrogenenergystorageisalsoexpectedtorise

duetoincreasingdemandandtheincentivetosecurerawmaterialsupplies.Additionally,investmentintransmissioninfrastructurewill

beessentialtoconnectdistributed

renewableresourcestodemand

centresandreduceenergylosses.TheinvestmentgrowthrateisexpectedtohitaCAGRof6.3%between2022and2027.5

EVs

ThedemandforEVsintheUnited

StatesandCanadaissettoincreaseduetohigherpetrolprices,growingenvironmentalconsciousnessand

improvedbatteryperformance.By

2035,EVsareexpectedtoexceed75%ofthelightvehiclemarketacross

NorthAmerica.Batteryelectric

vehicle(BEV)salesintheregion

areprojectedtoreach10.5million

unitsby2035,growingataCAGRof17.3%between2024and2035.TheUnitedStateswillremaintheprimarycontributortoEVsales,accountingfor89%oftheregion’sBEVsalesin2023-alsoincreasingitsshareof

globalBEVsalesfrom11%in2023to17%by2035.6

Acrossthe

continent,

hydrogen

capacityis

expectedto

growata

compound

annualgrowth

rate(CAGR)of

84%between

2024and2030.

TheUnitedStateswill…increaseitsshareof

globalBEVsalesfrom11%in2023to17%by2035.

4.,5.,6.Ibid.

CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIESINTHEUSRENEWABLEENERGYSECTOR11

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3:POLICYLANDSCAPE

TherenewableenergypolicylandscapeintheUSAhaswitnessedsignificantshiftsoverrecentyears.Acombinationoffederalandstate-levelinitiativesnowexiststosupportthegrowthandintegrationofrenewableenergy

technologies.Perhapsthemostsignificantofthese–theInflationReduction

Act–haspouredhundredsofbillionsofdollarsintotheenergytransitionsofar.But,withapresidentialandotherelectionsduetobeheldinNovember,

Theimpactthelong-termviabilityofthecurrentpro-renewablessettlementisuncertain.

oftheIRA

hasfostered

afavorable

environmentforinvestorsand

isanticipated

topropel

renewable

energyprojectswithin[theUSA].

14CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIESINTHEUSRENEWABLEENERGYSECTOR

InflationReductionAct(IRA)

AccordingtoKumar,“theimpactof

theIRAhasfosteredafavourable

environmentforinvestorsandis

anticipatedtopropelrenewable

energyprojectswithin[theUSA].”

Passedintolawin2022,theIRAisa

cornerstoneofUSclimatepolicy.It

offersextensivetaxcredits,grants

andinvestmentsaimedatpromotingrenewableenergy.ByNovember

2023,IRAfundinghadchannelled

over$240billioninto272renewableenergyprojects,withprojections

suggestingthisfigurewillsurpass$1trillionby2032.Thelargestallocationshavebeenforsolarprojects($80

billion),energystorageandbattery

manufacturing($45billioneach),andwindpower($22billion).Therehavebeensignificantknock-oneffectsforjobcreation;estimatessuggesttheIRAboostedemploymentinrenewablestothetuneofnearly300,000jobsbyFebruary2024.Thisfigureisexpectedtoriseto1.5millionjobsby2030.7

WhatoffearsthatasecondTrump

administrationcouldderail

investmentsdependentonIRA

funding?Kumarissanguine:“TorepealanactofCongresswouldnecessitatethepassageofnewlegislationthat

explicitlyrepealstheoriginalact,

whichishighlyimprobable”,heargues.“Moreover,theRepublicanParty

wouldneedtogainsufficientcontrolofCongresstointroduceanewact

forthenextpresident’sconsideration,aneventthatisalsounlikely.So,itishighlyimprobablethattheIRAwillbeaffected,givenitspositivemomentumtowardrenewableenergyprojects.”

Budgetarystimulus

TheUSgovernmenthasaimed

tomaintainIRAmomentumwith

additionalcashinjectionsinto

renewableinitiatives.TheFiscal

Year2024budgetincludes$16.5

billionfortheDepartmentofEnergy(DOE)tofundclimateandclean

energyresearch,developmentanddeployment.Thisbudgetmarksa

20%increaseoverthepreviousfiscalyearandsupportsawiderangeof

renewableinitiatives,including:

•$3.5billionforDOE’sOfficeofScienceand$1.6billionfortheNationalScienceFoundation;

•$1billionforfusionresearch

underCHIPSandScienceAct

authorisations–America’slargestinvestmentincleanenergypowerofitskindtodate;

•$1.2billionforDOEindustrialdecarbonizationactivities;

•$245milliontoenhance

cybersecurityofcleanenergy

technologiesandtheenergysupplychain;

•$4.5billionforcleanenergy

infrastructure,including$1.8billiontoretrofitlow-incomehomes.8

$

TheFiscalYear

2024budget

includes$16.5

billionforthe

Department

ofEnergy

(DOE)tofund

climateand

cleanenergy

research,

development

and

deployment.

7.Source:GlobalDatafigures.8.“TheUnitedStatesPowerMarket:Outlookto2035,”GlobalDatareport,January2024.

CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIESINTHEUSRENEWABLEENERGYSECTOR15

FederalProgrammes

TheProductionTaxCredit(PTC)andInvestmentTaxCredit(ITC)havebeenvitalinencouragingthedevelopmentofrenewableenergyprojects,

enablinginvestorstoreclaima

portionoftheirprofitspreviously

submittedtothegovernmentin

tax.ThePTCwasphaseddown

by40%forwindfacilitiesin2020

andtheschemewasinitiallyset

toexpireforallrenewableenergy

technologiesstartingconstructionafterDecember31,2021.However,aftertheintroductionoftheIRA,

thePTCwasextendedforeligible

technologiesuntiltheendof2023.Ithassincebeenextendedagain,andremainsvitalingovernmenteffortstocoaxinvestmentintorenewabletechnologies.

Launchedin2011,theSunShot

Initiativeaimstomakesolarenergycost-competitivewithotherpower

sources.By2017,theinitiativehad

successfullymetitsgoalofreducingthecostofutility-scalesolarpowerto$0.06/kWh.Newtargetssetin2016aimtofurtherreducethelevelized

costofenergy(LCOE)forsolarPVto$0.03/kWhby2030.

TheUSwindindustryhasbenefitedfromcontinuousfederalsupport.

ThePTChasplayedanespecially

importantrole-and,inMarch2021,theUSgovernmentannounceda

nationalgoalofadding30GWof

offshorewindcapacityby2030and25GWofonshorewindcapacityby2025.

TheDOEisalsofundingoffshore

windR&Dprogramsandproviding$3billionthroughtheInnovativeEnergyLoanGuaranteeProgram.

Itisn’tjustthemajorplayersin

windandsolarbenefitingfrom

policymakers’backing.Underthe

IRA,$10millionhasbeenallocatedtosupportadvancedbiofuelindustriesthatachievea50%emission

reductionoverconventionalfuels,withafurther$500milliondedicatedtoinfrastructureimprovements

forblending,storing,supplyingordistributingbiofuels.9Meanwhile,theDOE’sHydrogenProgram

Planoutlinespathwaysforthe

developmentanddeploymentofcleanhydrogentechnologies.Theplanincludesfundingforhydrogenproduction,deliveryinfrastructure,storageandfuelcells.

State-LevelIncentives

Stategovernmentshave

implementedRenewablePortfolio

Standards(RPS)tomandatethata

certainpercentageofenergysuppliedtoconsumerscomesfromrenewablesources.Thesetargetsvarybystate,typicallyrangingfrom10%to100%byspecifieddates.Forexample,

Californiaaimsfor100%renewableenergyby2045,whileNewYorkistargeting70%by2030.

Table1offersmoredetailedinsightonrenewableenergytargets,currentprogressandthedegreeofstate-to-statevariance.

InMarch

2021,theUS

government

announceda

nationalgoal

ofadding30

GWofoffshore

windcapacity

by2030and25

GWofonshore

windcapacity

by2025.

9.“NorthAmericaEnergyTransition:SectorsandCompaniesDrivingDevelopment,”GlobalDatareport,March2024.

16CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIESINTHEUSRENEWABLEENERGYSECTOR

State

Share/Amount

Year

Notes

Arizona

15%

2025

-

California

100%

2050

50%by2025,60%by2030and100%by2045.

Colorado

100%

2050

-

Connecticut

48%

2030

38%by2025.

Delaware

40%

2035

25%by2025.

Hawaii

100%

2045

40%–2030,and70%–2040.

Illinois

25%

2025-2026

Distributedgeneration:1%ofannualrequirement;

wind:75%ofannualrequirementforinvestor-ownedutilities,and60%forrenewableenergygenerators;

solarPV:6%ofannualrequirement.

Indiana

10%

2025

10%voluntarytarget.

Iowa

105MW

(alreadyachieved)

Applicableonlytoinvestor-ownedutilities.

Maine

80%

2030

100%by2050.

Maryland

50%

2030

-

Massachusetts

40%

2030

-

Michigan

-

-

Thegovernmentislookingtosetlong-termgoalof100%renewableelectricityby2050;negotiationsareyettoconclude.

Minnesota

26.50%

2025

Netcarbonneutralityby2050.

Missouri

15%

2021

-

Montana

15%

Eachyear

-

Nevada

25%

2025

50%in2030andeachyearthereafter;forsolarpower,thereisa6%annualrequirementfor2016–2025.

NewHampshire

25.20%

2025

-

NewJersey

50%

50%

100%by2050.

NewMexico

50%

2030

80%by2040,and100%by2045.

NorthCarolina

12.50%

2021

-

Ohio

8.50%

2026

-

Oregon

25%

2025

Plus,increasedRPSof50%by2040appliesIOUswhohaveashareofmorethan3%ofthestate’sload;forutilitieswithaload-shareof1.5%–3%,requirementis10%in2025,andforutilitieswithaloadshareoflessthan1.5%,itis5%in2025.

RhodeIsland

100%(offset)

2033

InJune2022,thegovernorofRhodeIslandsignedalegislationrequiringthestate’selectricityusetobecompletelyoffsetbyrenewablesby2033.

Utah

20%

2025

-

Vermont

75%

2032

10%fordistributedgenerationand12%forenergytransformationin2032.

Virginia

100%

2050

-

Washington,D.C.

100%

2045

Allutilitiesarerequiredtoeliminatecoalfromtheirstateportfoliosby2025.

Guam

100%

2045

Targetappliestonetelectricitysales.

PuertoRico

20%

2035

100%by2050.

USVirginIslands

30%

2025

-

Table1:Statebreakdownofrenewableenergypoliciesandgoals.Source:“TheUnitedStatesPowerMarket:Outlookto2035,”GlobalDatareport,January2024.

CHALLENGESANDOPPORTUNITIESINTHEUSRENEWABLEENERGYSECTOR17

4:MERGERSANDACQUISITIONS

Despitesignificantchallengesoverrecentmonthsandyears-includinghighinterestrates,inflationarypressuresandsupplychainconstraints–therehavebeensomebigstoriesintherealmofmergersandacquisitions,withmoreinthepipeline.

Thevolume

ofrenewableenergydeals

declined

markedlyin

2023fromthelevelsobservedin2022.

Entering2023,theUSrenewableenergyM&Alandscapefacedsignificant

economicandgeopoliticalheadwinds.Consequently,accordingtoKumar,

“thevolumeofrenewableenergydealsdeclinedmarkedlyin2023fromthe

levelsobservedin2022.”However,investoroptimismgrewduringthelatterhalfof2023amideasingsupplychainbottlenecksandthetricklingthroughoflegislativesupport,particularlyfromtheInflationReductionAct.NewdirectpayandtaxcredittransferabilityoptionsundertheIRA,alongwithcontin