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This
template
is
not
designed
for
Notes
view
printouts.Only
use
this
template
for
onscreen
presentations
to
large
groups
of
50+.To
have
the
option
of
using
the
Notes
Page
for
printouts
and
Slide
view
for
onscreen
presentations,
use
the
“U_Template
2000.”txho/11022ho0402
color.pptACCELERATING
INNOVATION
IN
ENERGYEnergy
is
Key
.
.
.
NowOctober
22,
2001This
report
is
solely
for
the
use
of
client
personnel.
No
part
of
it
may
be
circulated,
quoted,
or
reproducedfor
distribution
outside
the
client
organization
without
prior
written
approval
from
McKinsey
&
Company.This
material
was
used
by
McKinsey
&
Company
during
an
oral
presentation;
it
is
not
a
complete
record
ofthe
discussion.txho/11022ho0402
color.pptTODAY’S
DISCUSSION
Capital
markets:
ruthless
driver
ofinnovationCreative
destruction
in
the
Energy
Industry
What
can
Houston
do
to
lead
innovation
inEnergy?2txho/11022ho0402
color.pptNote:
Number
of
exits
averaged
over
twenty
year
periodSource:
McKinsey
analysis19351955197519952005EThe
S&P
500
is
abrutal,
unemotionalyardstick
ofperformanceThe
pace
of
changeis
acceleratingLONG-TERM
SURVIVAL
IS
DIFFICULT,
AND
GETTING
MOSOImplied
lifetime
in
S&P
500
based
on
company
exits
in
years3txho/11022ho0402
color.pptMARKETS
WIN
IN
THE
LONG
TERM4Overall
performance
of
S&P
500
would
have
beenabout20%
less
per
year……
if
itwere
made
up
of
those
companies
on
thelist
in
1957txho/11022
ho0402
color.ppt5HISTORICAL
PERFORMANCE
HAS
BEEN
ANALYZED
USING
THE
McKINSEY
LONG-TERM
PERFORMANCE
DATABASE
(PDB)PDBoverviewEnergy
sectorsFinancial
data
(60
items)
for
1,067
companiesin
16
industries
for
the
period
1962-2000*IndustryNumber
ofcompaniesIndustriesInteresting
dynamics
to
analyzeMore
than
10
players
with
50%ofsales
in
the
relevant
SIC
categoryCompaniesU.S.-basedBelonged
to
a
predetermined
SIC
codeObtained
at
least
50%
of
their
sales
from
specified
SIC
code(“pure-play”)Had
a
market
cap
withinthe
top
80%
of
all
market
cap
valuesCompanies
that
IPOed
in
last
4
years
met
both
market
capandpure
playcriteria
for
the
last
2
yearsCompanies
were
removed
only
when
they
merged,
gotacquired
or
went
bankruptSelection
criteriaAirlines23Commodity
Chemicals36Specialty
Chemicals47Defense28Medical
Supplies66Software171Paper47Pharmaceuticals101Soap24Telecommunications55Transportation25Semiconductors55Computer
hardware73Network42Utilities104Oil170Energy
subtotal274Total1,067*Currently
2000
data
has
been
updatedonlyfor
high
tech
companiesSource:McKinsey’s
long-term
performance
databasetxho/11022ho0402
color.pptACROSS
ALL
MAJOR
INDUSTRY
SECTORS,
NONE
HAS
EXHIBITEDSUSTAINED
OUTPERFORMANCE
..TelecomSource:McKinsey
performance
database6ToiletriesEconomynormalrange7-yearrollingnormalizedtotalreturntoshareholders:Selectindustriesvs.economyPharmaceuticals Defencetxho/11022ho0402
color.ppt...INFACT,MANYINDUSTRIESRARELYORNEVEROUTPERFORMAirlines
PaperCommodity
ChemicalsSpecialty
Chemicals7-yearrollingnormalizedtotalreturntoshareholders:Selectindustriesvs.economyEconomy
normal
rangeSource:McKinsey
performance
database7txho/11022ho0402
color.pptIF
YOU’RE
A
SURVIVOR,
YOU’VE
PROBABLY
UNDERPERFORMEDTHE
MARKET*
Companies
that
were
on
the
first
S&P
500
list
in
1957
and
remained
on
the
list
through
19957-yearrollingnormalizedtotalreturntoshareholders:Long-tersurvivorsvs.economyEconomy
returnEconomy
normal
range
(90%
confidence
band)Economy
survivors*Source:McKinsey
analysis,
McKinsey
corporate
performance
database8txho/11022ho0402
color.ppt9OUTPERFORMANCE
COMES
FROM
ATTACKERSSource:
McKinsey
analysis;
McKinsey
corporate
performance
database1
5Years
in
sample* Three
year
rolling
average
1962-95101520-10%5%0%-5%10%25Survivor’scurseTotal
return
to
shareholders
relative
to
industry
of“new
entrants”
into
top
80%
by
market
cap*TRS
relative
to
industry
average15%Attacker’s
advantage..becomes…txho/11022ho0402
color.pptSURVIVORS
UNDERPERFORM
BECAUSE
THEY
FAIL
TOCREATE,
INNOVATE,
AND
EXIT
QUICKLY
ENOUGHSurvivors
are
paralyzed
byfear
of–Product
cannibalization–Customer
conflict–Dilutive
acquisitionSurvivors
suffer
fromcultural
lock-inThesurvivor’s
mentalmodel
focuses
onprotecting
the
corebusinessSalesTimeVision,
ideas,
passionInability
toinnovateFocus
on
operationsDenialRationalityCreation
andinnovation10txho/11022ho0402
color.pptStockpriceCAGR44%(vs.S&PCAGR13%)#2
onlinebroker
with~20%
of
totalonline
retailbrokeragemarketaccountsLaunchesonline
tradingSchwab
assembles
secretdevelopment
teamCREATING
OPTIONS:
CANNIBALIZING
DIRECTCHANNELS
AT
SCHWABOnline
tradingbecomes
corebusinessSource:Literature
search,
company
reports,Bloomberg,McKinsey
analysisPercent
change
in
stock
price
since
Jan
92SchwabS&P
FinanceS&P
50011txho/11022ho0402
color.pptSource:Datastream,
company
reports,
Literature
searchDivestedpaper,rubberAcquiredmobilephonemanufacturerDivested
cableand
machinedivisionsDivestedpowerDivested
cablemachinery
andNokia
tiresDivested
televisions,chemicals
and
cablesStockpriceCAGR63%(vs.S&PCAGR13%)#1
worldmarket
shareof
cell
phones(~32%)Divested
dataoperationsDESTROYING:
NOKIA
–
FROM
CONGLOMERATE
TOWORLD’S
LARGEST
PHONE
MANUFACTURERPercent
change
in
stock
price
since
Jan
90NokiaS&P
50012txho/11022ho0402
color.pptTODAY’S
DISCUSSION
Capital
markets:
ruthless
driver
ofinnovationCreative
destruction
in
the
Energy
Industry
What
can
Houston
do
to
lead
innovation
inEnergy?13txho/11022ho0402
color.pptAs
expected
in
aregulated
industry,utilities
closelytrack
the
generaleconomyOil
was
hit
hard
inthe
80’s,
but
hasbeen
steadilyrecoveringUtilitiesOilPETROLEUMANDUTILITIESVS.THEECONOMY7-yearrollingaverageofnormalizedTRS14txho/11022ho0402
color.pptIn
the
long
run,
noneof
the
player
classesdelivers
significantreturns
beyond
theeconomy
as
a
wholeHowever,
returns
forIndependents
andOFSEs
appear
to
bemore
sensitive
to
oilprice
swingsPETROLEUMPLAYERCLASSPERFORMANCEVS.THES&P500MajorsIndependentsOFSEs7-year
rolling
average
of
normalized
TRS15txho/11022ho0402
color.pptINNOVATION
IN
ENERGYCompanyBusiness
model,technologyAcquisition,
businessmodelAcquisition,
businessmodelAcquisition,
businessmodelDriversCultural
revolution
at
a
gas
pipeline
company
thathas
redefined
commodity
tradingMid-80’s
low
tech
start-up
significantly
moresuccessful
than
the
dot-comsWith
a
high
quality
management
team,
it’spossible
to
grow
significantly
through
M&APulling
the
financial
restructuring
lever
hard
torelease
the
value
in
capital-heavy
assetsActivity16txho/11022ho0402
color.pptRELIANT
–
TRANSFORMATION
OF
AREGULATED
UTILITYLocalutilityNew
business
modelexperimentation1882-1995Founded
as
utility
toservice
local
HoustonmarketEntered
and
exited
utilityfuels
businessEntered
cable
TV
(1986)Acquired
interests
in
SouthAmerica
(1992)1995-2000Entered
IPP
market–Plants
in
California,
IndiaEntered
power
and
gastrading
(Currently
#4
ingas,
#3
in
power)Invested
intelecommunications
ande-commerce
(REICommunications,GuideS)2000-Created
two
distinctbusinesses–Regulated
distribution–Unregulated
wholesalepower
and
gasSource:Exited
South
Americanoperations
and
Cable
TVHoovers;
analyst
reports;
press
releasesBusiness
separation17txho/11022ho0402
color.pptTHE
REINVENTION
OF
BPPortfolio
pruningAttacking
throughconsolidationBusinessmodel
innovation1985-92Divested
noncore
lines
ofbusiness–Nutrition
(BP
Nutrition)–Computing
Services(Scicon)–Coal
(BP
Coal)–Minerals
(Selection
Trust)Acquired
strategic
coreassets–Sohio–Britoil1992-98Performance-drivenbusiness
unitsPeer
group/collaborativeperformance
managementOutsourced
noncorefunctions
(accounting,
IT)1998AmocoARCOVastarBurma
CastrolVeba18txho/11022ho0402
color.pptINNOVATION
IN
THEOIL
INDUSTRYCompanyAcquisition,
technologyAcquisition,
technology,business
modeldestructionAcquisition,
technologyAcquisition,
businessmodelDriversCement
company
creating
the
one-stop
shopfor
the
oil
patchEx-pipeline
subsidiary
leveraging
distinctiveexploration
and
acquisition
to
create
valuePioneer
in
oilfield
technology
playing‘smart’
inside
and
outside
of
the
oil
patchSpun-off
subsidiary
exploiting
proventechnologies
to
drive
revenue
growthActivity19txho/11022ho0402
color.pptTODAY’S
DISC
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