江苏英语高考真题有答案

2017年普通高等学校招生全国统一考试（江苏卷）

英语试题

注意事项：

1.答题前，先将自己的姓名、准考证号填写在试题卷和答题卡上，并将准考证号条形码粘贴在答题卡

上的指定位置。用2B铅笔将答题卡上试卷类型A后的方框涂黑。

2.选择题的作答：每小题选出答案后，用2B铅笔把答题卡上对应题目的答案标号涂黑，写在试题卷、

草稿纸和答题卡上的非答题区域均无效。

3.非选择题的作答：用签字笔直接答在答题卡上对应的答题区域内。写在试题卷、草稿纸和答题卡上

的非答题区域均无效。

4.考试结束后，请将本试题卷和答题卡并上交。

第一部分听力（共两节，满分20分）

做题时，先将答案标在试卷上，录音内容结束后，你将有两分钟的时间将试卷上的答案转涂到答题

卡上。

第一节（共5小题；每小题1分，满分5分）

听下面5段对话。每段对话后有一个小题，从题中所给的A、B、C三个选项中选出最佳选项。

听完每段对话后，你都有10秒钟的时间来回答有关小题和阅读下一小题。每段对话仅读一遍。

例：Howmuchistheshirt

A.19.15.B.9.18.C.9.15.

答案是C。

1.Whatdoesthewomanthinkofthemovie

Alt'samusing.B.It,sexciting.C.It,sdisappointing.

2.HowwillSusanspendmostofhertimeinFrance

A.Travelingaround.

B.Studyingataschool.

C.Lookingafterheraunt.

3.Whatarethespeakerstalkingabout

A.Goingout.

B.Orderingdrinks.

C.Preparingforaparty.

4.Wherearethespeakers

A.Inaclassroom.B.Inalibrary.C.Inabookstore.

5.Whatisthemangoingtodo

A.GoontheInternet.B.Makeaphonecall.C.Takeatraintrip.

第二节（共15小题：每小题1分，满分15分）

听下面5段对话或独白。每段对话或独白后有几个小题，从题中所给的A、B、C三个选项中选出

最佳选项。听每段对话或独白前，你将有时间阅读各个小题，每小题5秒钟：听完后，各小题将给出5

秒钟的作答时间。每段对话或独白读两遍。

听第6段材料，回答第6、7题。

6.Wha（isthewomanlookingfor

A.Aninformationoffice.B.Apolicestation.C.Ashoerepairshop.

7.WhatistheTownGuideaccordingtotheman

A.Abrochure.B.Anewspaper.C.Amap.

听第7段材料，回答第8、9题。

8.Whatdoesthemansayabouttherestaurant

A.It'sthebiggestonearound.

B.Itoffersmanytastydishes.

C.Itsfamousforitsseafood.

9.Whatwillthewomanprobablyorder

A.Friedfish.B.Roastchicken.C.Beefsteak.

听第8段材料，回答第10至12题。

10.WherewillMr.Whitebeat11o'clock

A.Attheoffice.B.Attheairport.C.Attherestaurant.

1l.WhatwillMr.Whiteprobablydoatoneintheafternoon

A.Receliveaguest.B.Haveameeting.C.Readareport.

12.WhenwillMissWilsonseeMr.White

A.Atlunchtime.

B.Lateintheafternoon.

C.Thcnextmorning.

听第9段材料，回答第13至16题。

13.WhyisBillgoingtoGermany

A.Toworkonaproject.

B.TostudyGerman.

C.Tostartanewcompany.

14.WhatdidthewomandislikeaboutGermany

A.Theweather.B.Thefood.C.Theschools.

15.WhatdoesBillhopetodoabouthisfamily

A.BringthemtoGermany.

B.LeavetheminEngland.

C.Visittheminafewmonths.

16.Whatistheprobablerelationshipbetweenthespeakers

A.Fellow-travelers.B.Colleagues.C.Classmates.

听第10段材料，回答第17至20题。

l7.WhendiditrainlasttimeinJuarez

A.Threedaysago.B.Amonthago.C.Ayearago.

18.WhatseasonisitnowinJudrez

A.Spring.B.SummerC.Autumn.

19.Whataretheelderlyadvisedtodo

A.Takeawalkintheafternoon.

B.Keeptheirhomescool.

C.Drinkplentyofwater.

2O.Whatisthespeakerdoing

A.Hostingaradioprogram.

B.Conductingaseminar.

C.Forecastingtheweather.

第二部分：英语知识运用（共两节，满分35分）

第一节：单项填空（共15小题；每小题1分，满分15分）

请认真阅读下面各题，从题中所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中，选出最佳选项，并在答题卡上将该

项涂黑。

例：Itisgenerallyconsideredunwisetogiveachildheorshewants.

A.howeverB.whateverC.whicheverD.whenever

答案是B。

21.ManyChinesebrands,theirreputationsovercenturies,arefacingnewchallengesfromthe

modernmarket.

A.havingdevelopedB.beingdevelopedC.developedD.developing

22.notfbrthesupportoftheteachers,thestudentcouldnotovercomeherdifficulty.

A.ItwereB.WereitC.ItwasD.Wasit

23.LocatedtheBeltmeetstheRoad.JiangsuwillcontributemoretotheBeltandRoadconstruction.

A.whyB.whenC.whichD.where

24.ThepublicationofGreatExpectations,whichbothwidelyreviewedandhighly

praised,strengthenedDickensstatusasaleadingnovelist.

A.isB.areC.wasD.were

25.WorkingwiththemedicalteaminAfricahasthebestinherasadoctor.

A.heldoutB.broughtoutC.pickedoutD.givenout

26.Wechoosethishotelbecausethepricefbranighthereisdownto$20,halfofitusedtocharge.

A.thatB.whichC.whatD.how

27.Hehurriedhome,neveroncelookingbacktoseeifhe.

A.wasbeingfollowedB.wasfollowing

C.hadbeenfollowedD.followed

28.1n1963theUNsetuptheWorldFoodProgramme,oneofpurposesistorelieveworldwidestarvation.

A.whichB.itsC.whoseD.whom

29.0nlyfiveyearsafterSteveJobs'death,smart-phonesdefeatedPCsinsales.

A.controversialB.contradictory

C.confidentialD.conventional

30.Aquickreviewofsuccessesandfailuresattheendofyearwillhelpyouryearahead.

A.shapeB.switchC.stretchD.sharpen

31.He'sbeeninformedthatheforthescholarshipbecauseofhisacademicbackground.

A.hasn'tqualifiedB.hadn'tqualified

C.doesn'tqualifyD.wasn'tqualifying

32.Determiningwhereweareoursurroundingsremainsanessentialskillfbroursurvival.

A.incontrasttoB.indefenseof

C.infaceofD.inrelationto

33.—WhatdoesthestuffonyourT-shirtmean

—It'snothing.Justsomething.

A.asclearasday

B.offthetopofmyhead

C.undermynose

D.bcyondmywildestdreams

34.Thedisappearanceofdinosaursisnotnecessarilycausedbyastronomicalincidents.But

explanationsarehardtofind.

A.alternativeB.aggressiveC.ambiguousD.apparent

35.—GoingtowatchtheWomen'sVolleyballMatchonWednesday

—!Willyougowithme

A.YouthereB.Youbet

C.YougotmeD.Youknowbetter

第二节：完形填空（共20小题；每小题1分，满分20分）

请认真阅读下面短文，从短文后各题所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中，选出最佳选项，并在答题卡

上将该项涂黑。

ForalongtimeGabrieldidn'twanttobeinvolvedinmusicatall.Inhisfirstyearsofhighschool,Gabriel

wouldlookpityinglyatmusicstudents.36acrossthecampuswiththeirheavyinstrumentcases.37

atschoolforpracticehours38anyoneelsehadtobethere.Hesworetohimselfto39music,ashe

hatedgettingtoschoolextraearly.

_40__,oneday,inthemusicclassthatwas_41_ofhisschool'sstandardcurriculum,hewasplaying

idly（随意地）onthepianoandfoundit____42___topickouttunes.Withasinkingfeeling,herealizedthathe

actually_43_doingit.Hetriedtohidehis_44_pleasurefromthemusicteacher,whohad_45_overto

listen.Hemightnothavedonethisparticularlywell,—46—theteachertoldGabrielthathehadagood

___47_andsuggestedthatGabrielgointothemusicstore-roomtoseeifanyoftheinstrumentsthere_48—

him.Therehedecidedtogivethecello（大提琴）a_49_.Whenhebeganpracticing,hetookitvery_50_.

Buthequicklyfoundthathelovedplayingthisinstrument,andwas_51_topracticingitsothatwithina

coupleofmonthshewasplayingreasonablywell.

This_52_,ofcourse,thathearrivedatschoolearlyinthemorning,_53_hisheavyinstrumentcase

acrossthecampustothe_54_looksofthenon-musicianshehadleft_55_.

36.A.travellingB.marchingC.pacingD.struggling

37.A.risingupB.comingupC.drivingupD.turningLp

38.A.beforeB.afterC.untilD.since

39.A.betrayB.acceptC.avoidD.appreciate

40.A.ThereforeB.HoweverC.ThusD.Moreover

41.A.partB.natureC.basisD.spirit

42.A.complicatedB.safeC.confusingD.easy

43.A.missedB.dislikedC.enjoyedD.denied

44.A.transparentB.obviousC.falseD.similar

45.A.runB.joggedC.jumpedD.wandered

46.A.becauseB.butC.thoughD.so

47.A.earB.tasteC.heartD.voice

48.A.occurredtoB.tooktoC.appealedtoD.heldto

49.A.changeB.chanceC.missionD.function

50.A.seriouslyB.proudlyC.casuallyD.naturally

51.A.committedB.usedC.limitedD.admitted

52.A.provedB.showedC.stressedD.meant

53.A.pushingB.draggingC.liftingD.rushing

54.A.admiringB.pityingC.annoyingD.teasing

55.A.overB.asideC.behindD.out

第三部分：阅读理解（共15小题；每小题2分，满分30分）

请认真阅读下列短文，从短文后各题所给的A、B、C、D四个选项中，选出最佳选项，并在答题卡

上将该项涂黑。

A

CHR0N0L0GICA

----TheUnbelievableYearsthatDefinedHistory

DIDYOUKNOW-

❖In105ADpaperwasinventedinChina

❖WhenColumbusdiscoveredtheNewWorld

❖TheBritishMuseumopenedin1759

CHRONOLOGICAisafascinalifigjourneythroughLime,fiomthefoundationofRometoLhe

creationoftheinternet.Alongthewayaretalesofkingsandqueens,

hotairballoons••,andmonkeysinspace.

Travelthrough100ofthemostunbelievableyearsinworldhistoryand

learnwhybeingaRomanEmperorwasn,talwaysasgoodasitsounds,

howtheHundredYears'Wardicin'tactuallylastfor100yearsand

whySpencerPercevalholdsaratherunfortunaterecord.

CHRONOLOGICAisaninformativeandentertainingtourintohistory,

beautifullyillustratedandfullofunbelievablefacts.While

CHRONOLOGICAtellsthestoriesoffamouspeopleinhistorysuchas

ThomasEdisonandAlexandertheGreat,thisbookalsogivesanaccount

ofthelivesoflesser-knownindividualsincludingtheexplorerMungo

ParkandsculptorGutzonBorglum.

Thiscompletebutbriefhistoricalcollection

iscertaintoentertainreadersyoungandold,

andguaranteedtopresenteventhebiggest

historyloverwithsomethingnew!

56.WhatisCHRONOLOGICAaccordingtothenext

A.Abiography.B.Atravelguide.

C.Ahistorybook.D.Asciencefiction.

57.HowdoesthewriterrecommendCHRONOLOGICAtoreaders

A.Bygivingdetailsofitscollection.

B.Byintroducingsomeofitscontents.

C.Byiellingstoriesatthebeginning.

D.Bycomparingitwithotherbooks.

B

Bcfuicbiilli,babiescanIcllllicdiflcicnucbetweenloudsoundsand

voices.Theycanevendistinguishtheirmother'svoicefromthatofafemale

stranger.Butwhenitcomestoembryoniclearning（胎教）,birdscouldrule

theroost.AsrecentlyreportedinTheAuk:OrnithologicalAdvances,some

motherbirdsmayteachtheiryoungtosingevenbeforetheyhatch（孵化）.Red-backedfairywrens（ftM）,whichl^einnorthernand

easternAustralia,laythreeorfoureggsatatune.

New-bornchickscanthenimitatetheirmom'scallwithinafewdaysof

enteringtheworld.

Thiseducationalmethodwasfirstobservedin2012bySoniaKleindorfer,abiologistatFlinders

UniversityinSouthAustralia,andhercolleagues.FemaleAustraliansuperbfairywrenswerefoundtorepeat

onesoundoverandoveragainwhilehatchingtheireggs.Whentheeggswerehatched,thebabybirdsmadethe

similarchirptotheirmothers—asoundthatservedastheirregulart4feedme!”call.

Tofindoutifthespecialqualitywasmorewidespreadinbirds,theresearcherssoughtthered-backedfairy

wren,anotherspeciesofAustraliansongbird.Firsttheycollectedsounddatafrom67nestsinfoursitesin

Queenslandbeforeandafterhatching.Thentheyidentifiedbeggingcallsbyanalyzingtheorderandnumberof

notes.Acomputeranalysisblindlycomparedcallsproducedbymothersandchicks,rankingthembysimilarity.

Itturnsoutthatbabyred-backedfairywrensalsoemergechirpingliketheirmoms.Andthemore

frequentlymothershadcalledtotheireggs,themoresimilarwerethebabies'beggingcalls.Inaddition,the

teamsetupaseparateexperimentthatsuggestedthatthebabybirdsthatmostcloselyimitatedtheirmom's

voicewererewardedwiththemostfood.

Thisobservationhintsthateffectiveembryoniclearningcouldsignalneurological（神经系统的）strengths

ofchildrentoparents.Anevolutionaryinferencecanthenbedrawn.**Asaparent,doyouinvestinquality

children,ordoyouinvestinchildrenthatareinneed“Kleindorferasks."Ourresultssuggestthattheymightbe

goingforquality.*'

58.TheunderlinedphraseinParagraphImeans"”.

A.betheworstB.bethebest

C.betheasbadD.bejustasgood

59.WhatareKleindorfer'sfindingsbasedon

A.Similaritiesbetweenthecallsofmomsandchicks.

B.TheobservationoffairywrensacrossAustralia.

C.ThedatacollectedfromQueensland'slocals.

D.Controlledexperimentsonwrensandotherbirds.

60.Embryoniclearninghelpsmotherbirdstoidentifythebabybirdswhich.

A.canreceivequalitysignalsB.areinneedoftraining

C.fittheenvironmentbetterD.make（heloudestcall

C

Anewcommoditybringsaboutahighlyprofitable,fast-growingindustry,urgingantitrust（反垄断）

regulatorstostepintocheckthosewhoccntrolitsflow.Acenturyago,theresourceinquestionwasoil.Now

similarconcernsaresbeingraisedbythegiants（巨头）thatdealindata,theoilofthedigitalage.Themost

valuablefirmsareGoogle,Amazon,FacebookandMicrosoft.Alllookunstoppable.

Suchsituationshaveledtocallsfbrthetechgiantstobebrokenup.Butsizealoneisnotacrime.The

giants'successhasbenefitedconsumers.Fewwanttolivewithoutsearchenginesoraquickdelivery.Farfrom

chargingconsumershighprices,manyoftheseservicesarefree（userspay,ineffect,byhandingoveryetmore

data）.Andtheappearanceofnew-borngiantssuggeststhatnewcomerscanmakewaves,too.

Butthereiscauseforconcern.Theinternethasmadedataabundant,all-presentandfarmorevaluable,

changingthenatureofdataandcompetition.Googleinitiallyusedthedatacollectedfromuserstotarget

advertisingbetter.Butrecentlyithasdiscoveredthatdatacanbeturnedintonewservices:translationand

visualrecognition,tobesoldtoothercompanies.Internetcompanies'controlofdatagivesthemenormous

power.Sotheyhavea"God'seyeview“ofactivitiesintheirownmarketsandbeyond.

Thisnatureofdatamakestheantitrustmeasuresofthepastlessuseful.BreakingupfirmslikeGoogle

intofivesmalloneswouldnotstopremakingthemselves:inlime,oneofthemwouldbecomegreatagain.A

rethinkisrequired—andasanewapproachstartstobecomeapparent,twoideasstandout.

Thefirstisthatantitrustauthoritiesneedtomoveformtheindustrialageintothe21stcentury.When

consideringamerger（兼并），fbrexample,theyhavetraditionallyusedsizetodeterminewhentostepin.They

nowneedtotakeintoaccounttheextentoffirms'dataassets（资产）whenassessingtheimpactofdeals.The

purchasepricecouldalsobeasignalthatanestablishedcompanyisbuyinganew-bornthreat.Whenthistakes

place,especiallywhenanew-borncompanyhasnorevenuetospeakof,theregulatorsshouldraiseredflags.

Thesecondprincipleistoloosenthecontrolthatprovidersofon-lineserviceshaveoverdataandgive

moretothosewhosupplythem.Companiescouldbeforcedtoconsumerswhatinformationtheyholdandhow

manymoneytheymakeformit.Governmentscouldorderthesharingofcertainkindsofdata,withusers*

consent.

RestartingantitrustfortheinformationagewillnotbeeasyButifgovernmentsdon'twantsadata

oconomybyafewgiants,theymustactsoon.

61.Whyisthereacalltobreakupgiants

A.Theyhavecontrolledthedatamarket

B.Theycollectenormousprivatedata

C.Theynolongerprovidefreeservices

D.Theydismissedsomenew-borngiants

62.WhatdoesthetechnologicalinnovationinParagraph3indicate

A.Datagiants*technologyisveryexpensive

B.Google'sideaispopularamongdatafirms

C.Datacanstrengthengiants'controllingposition

D.Datacanbeturnedintonewservicesorproducts

63.Bypayingattentiontofirms'dataassets,antitrustregulatorscould.

A.killanewthreatB.avoidthesizetrap

C.favourbiggerfirmsD.chargehigherprices

64.Whatisthepurposeoflooseningthegiants'controlofdata

A.Bigcompaniescouldrelievedatasecuritypressure.

B.Governmentscouldrelievetheirfinancialpressure.

C.Consumerscouldbetterprotecttheirprivacy.

D.Smallcompaniescouldgelmoreopportunities.

D

OldProblem,NewApproaches

Whilecleanenergyisincreasinglyusedinourdailylife,globalwarningwillcontinueforsomedecades

afterCO2emissions（排放）peak.Soevenifemissionsweretobegintodecreasetoday,wewouldstillfacethe

challengeofadaptingtoclimatechange.HereIwillstresssomesmarterandmorecreativeexamplesofclimate

adaptation.

Whenitcomestoadaptation,itisimportanttounderstandthatclimatechangeisaprocess.Weare

thereforenottalkingaboutadaptingtoanewstandard,buttoaconstantlyshiftingsetofconditions.Thisis

why,inpartatleast,theUSNationalClimateAssessmentsaysthat:"Thereisno'one-sizefitsall'adaDtation.”

Nevertheless,therearesomeactionsthatoffermuchandcarrylittleriskorcost.

Aroundtheworld,peopleareadaptinginsurprisingways,especiallyinsomepoorcountries.Floodshave

becomemoredamaginginBangladeshinrecentdecades.MohammedRezwansawopportunitywhereothers

sawonlydisaster.Hisnot-for-profitorganizationruns100riverboatsthatserveasfloatinglibraries,schools,

andhealthclinics,andareequippedwithsolarpanelsandothercommunicatingfacilities.Rezwaniscreating

floatingconnectivity（连体）toreplacefloodedroadsandhighways.Butheisalsoworkingatafarmore

fundamentallevel:hisstaffshowpeoplehowtomakefloatinggardensandfishpondspreventstarvationduring

thewetseason.

ElsewhereinAsiaevenmoreastonishingactionsarebeingtaken.ChewangNorphellivesina

mountainousregioninIndia,whereheisknownastheIceMan.Thelossofglaciers（冰川）thereduetoglobal

warmingrepresentsanenormousthreattoagriculture.Withouttheglaciers,waterwillarriveintheriversat

timeswhenitcandamagecrops.Norphefsinspirationcamefromseeingthewasteofwateroverwinter,when

itwasnotneeded.Hedirectedthewastedwaterintoshallowbasinswhereitfroze,andwasstoreduntilthe

spring.Hisfieldsoficesupplyperfectlytimedirrigation（灌溉）water.Havingcreatedninesuchicereserves,

Norphelcalculatesthathehasstoredabout200,000m3ofwater.Climatechangeisacontinuingprocess,so

Norphefsicereserveswillnotlastforever.Warmingwillovertakethem.Butheisprovidingafewyears

duringwhichthefarmerswill,perhaps,beabletofindothermeansofadapting.

IncreasingEarih'sreflectivenesscancool(heplanet.InsouthernSpainthesuddenincreaseof

greenhouses(whichreflectlightbacktospace)haschangedthewarmingtrendlocally,andactuallycooledthe

region.WhileSpainasawholeishealingupquickly,temperaturesnearthegreenhouseshavedecreased.This

exampleshouldactasaninspirationforallcities.Bypaintingbuildingswhite,citiesmayslowdownthe

warmingprocess.

InPeru,localfarmersaroundamountainwithaglacierthathasalreadyfallenvictimtoclimatechange

havebegunpaintingtheentiremountainpeakwhiteinthehopethattheaddedreflectivenesswillrestorethe

life-givingice.Theoutcomeisstillfarfromclear.ButtheWorldBankhasincludedtheprojectonitsof"100

ideastosavetheplanet”.

Moreordinaryformsofadaptationarehappeningeverywhere.Afriendofmineownsanareaoflandin

westernVictoria.Overfivegenerationsthelandhasbeentoowetforcropping.Butduringthepastdecade

decliningrainfallhasallowedhimtoplanthighlyprofitablecrops.Farmersinmanycountriesarealsoadapting

likethis-eitherbygrowingnewproduce,orbygrowingthesamethingsdifferently.Thisiscommonsense.

ButsomesuggestionsforadaptingarenotWhenthepollutingindustriesarguetharwe'velostthebattleto

controlcarbonpollutionandhavenochoicebuttoadapt,il'sanonsensedesignedtomakethecaseforbusiness

asusual.

Humanbeingswillcontinuetoadapttothechangingclimateinbothordinaryandastonishingways.Butthe

mostsensibleformofadaptationissurelytoadaptourenergysystemstoemitlesscarbonpollution.Afterall,if

weadaptinthatway,wemayavoidtheneedtochangeinsomanyothers.

65.TheunderlinedpartinParagraph2implies.

A.adaptationisanever-changingprocess

B.thecostofadaptationvarieswithtime

C.globalwarmingaffectsadaptationforms

D.adaptationtoclimatechangeischallenging

66.WhatisspecialwithregardtoRezwan'sproject

A.Theprojectreceivesgovernmentsupport.

B.Differentorganizationsworkwitheachother.

C.Hisorganizationmakesthebestofabadsituation.

D.Theprojectconnectsfloodedroadsandhighways.

67.WhatdidtheIceMandotoreducetheeffectofglobalwarming

A.Storingiceforfutureuse.

B.Protectingtheglaciersfrommelting.

C.Changingtheirrigationlime.

D.Postponingthemeltingoftheglaciers.

68.WhatdowelearnfromthePeruexample

A.Whitepaintisusuallysafefbrbuildings.

B.Theglobalwarmingtreadcannotbestopped.

C.Thiscountryisheatinguptooquickly.

D.Sunlightreflectionmayrelieveglobalwarming.

69.Accordingtotheauthor,pollutingindustriesshould.

A.adapttocarbonpollution

B.planthighlyprofitablecrops

C.leavecarbonemissionalone

D.fightagainstcarbonpollution

70.What'stheauthor'spreferredsolutiontoglobalwarming

A.Sellingupanewstandard.

B.Reducingcarbonemission.

C.Adaptingtoclimatechange.

D.Monitoringpollutingindustries.

第四部分：任务型阅读（共10小题；每小题1分，满分10分）

请认真阅读下面短文，并根据所读内容在文章后表格中的空格里填入一个最恰当的单词学科&网。

注意：请将答案写在答题卡上相应题号的横线上。每个空格只填一个单词。

PopulationChange

Whyistheworld'spopulationgrowingTheanswerisnotwhatyoumightthink.Thereasonforthe

explosionisnotthatpeoplehavebeenreproducinglikerabbits,butthatpeoplehavestoppeddroppingdeadlike

flies.In1900,peoplediedattheaverageageof30.By2000theaverageagewas65.Butwhileincreasing

healthwasatypicalfeatureofthe20thcentury,decliningbirthratecouldbeadefiningoneofthe21st.

Statisticsshowthattheaveragenumberofbirthsperwomanhasfallenfrom4.9intheearly1960sto2.5

nowadays.Furthermore,around50%oftheworld'spopulationliveinregionswherethefigureisnowbelow

thereplacementlevel(i.e.2.1birthsperwoman)andalmostalldevelopednationsareexperiencing

sub-replacementbirthrate.Youmightthinkthatdevelopingnationswouldmakeuptheloss(especiallysince

80%oftheworld'speoplenowliveinsuchnations),butyou'dbewrong.Decliningbirthrateisamajor

probleminmanydevelopingregionstoo,whichmightcausecatastrophicglobalshortagesofworkforcewithin

afewdecades.

AgreatdeclineinyoungworkforceislikelytooccurinChina,forinstance.WhatdoesitimplyFirst,

Chinaneedstoundergorapideconomicdevelopmentbeforeapopulationdeclinehitsthecountry.Second,if

otherfactorssuchastechnologyremainconstant,economicgrowthandmaterialexpectationswillfallwell

belowrecentstandardsandthiscouldinvitetrouble.

Russiaisanothercountrywithpopulationproblemsthatcouldbreakitseconomicpromise.Since1992the

numberofpeopledyinghasbeenbiggerthanthatofthosebeingbombyamassive50%.Indeedofficialfigures

suggestthecountryhasshrunkby5%since1993andpeopleinRussialiveashorterlifenowthanthosein

1961.WhyisthisoccurringNobodyisquitesure,butpoordietandabovealllong-timealcoholismhavemuch

todowithit.Ifcurrenttrendsdon'tbend,Russia'spopulationwillbeaboutthesizeofYemen'sbytheyear

2050.

InthenorthofIndia,(hepopulationisboomingduetohighbirthrates,butinthesouth,wheremost

economicdevelopmentistakingplace,birthrateisfallingrapidly.Inafurthertwist,birthrateishighestin

poorlyeducatedruralareasandlowestinhighlyeducatedurbanareas.Intotal,25%ofIndia'sworking-age

populationhasnoeducation.In2030,asixthofthecountry'spotentialworkforcecouldbetotallyuneducated.

Onesolutionisobviouslytoimportforeignworkersviaimmigration.AsfortheUSA,itisalmostunique

amongdevelopednationsinhavingapopulationthatisexpectedtogrowby20%from2010—2030.Moreover,

theUSAhasatrackrecordofsuccessfullyacceptingimmigrants.Asaresultit'slikelytosecariseinthesize

ofitsworking-agepopulationand(owitnessstrongeconomicgrowthoverthelongerterm.

PopulationChange

Thebirthrateinthe21stcenturymaybemuch(71)thanitwasinthe