第1讲：科学的管理方法

ScientificDepartmentofTheChineseUniversityofHongKongPAUSEUseofEnglishUseofSurveyFourDaysof20tham:Scientificmanagement20thpm:Whatisa21stam:Thesurveyresearch21stpm:Howtoreadandwriteajournal27tham:Measurement27thpm:Exploratoryfactor28th28tham:CFAandStructuralEquationModeling28thpm:MediationandAfewquestionsHowdoweacquireWhatisscientificHowdoweacquirescientificHowdoscientistscumulateWhatistheaimofdoingWhatistheprocessofdoingWhatistheroleoftheoryinComparethehistoryofscientificdiscoverieswiththemodernwayofconductingmanagementresearch.SomediscussionReasonandInductionandLogicalTheproblemofLogicalKarlPopper卡尔·波普尔ThomasKhun托马斯·ImreLakatos伊姆雷·(《科学研究纲领方法论》/1185/viewspace-Derivingtheoriesfrom(reasons(reasonsleadingtothese(Observations,TheHenryGustavMolaisonIntractableepilepsy（癲癇;羊癇Amnesia（失忆症）asaAmnesia（失忆症）asaHehadlosttheabilitytoformnewProposedexplanationHippocampusHippocampus（海马体Amydala（杏仁体、扁桃体(3)Model&The(3)Model&(2)(1)Episodicmemory(30sectofewWorkingmemorypersonalProspectivememorySemanticmemorymemoryofProceduralmemoryproceduresassensedbythebodyYamadoriAtsushi(2002).Fivetypesofhumanmemory.HigherBrainFunctionResearch.22(3):237-Relationshipamong

Thescientificinvestigation(3)Model&(4)(2)(1)MorriswaterH1:NeuroncellsinthehippocampuswouldbeincreasedforthoseratswhohaveplayedintheMorriswatermaze.(15%)H2:Lesionofhippocampusleadstosignificantlengtheningoflatency.(significant)MorriswaterNeuroncellsinthehippocampusincreasedby15%forthoseratswhohaveplayedintheMorriswaterLesionofhippocampusleadstosignificantlengtheningof(3)Model&The(3)Model&

(4) (5)(2)(1) ThescientificInter-relationshipamongthevariablesformstheWhenexplainingwhytheyarerelated,wearebuilding（a）goodhypothesesfollowslogicallyfromatheory（b）goodhypothesescanbeusedtoinvalidatetheoriesNecessitymeansthatH0mustresultsifthetheoryistrue;(strongExclusivenessmeansthatifweseetheresults,thetheoryissupported,butnotothertheories.(ruleoutalternativeexplanations)Afteratheoryisbuiltup,wemaythinkofapplyingthetheorytoexplainotherrelatedphenomena.Thescientificinvestigation(3)Model&ThehippocampusisdestroyedforAlzheimer(dementia)patients.(4)(5)(2)(1)WhatisPhenomenon(What?How?When?peoplehavestrongertendenciesofhavingimpulsivepurchasewhenthepriceoftheproductisrelativelylow.Theoryinordertoavoidinformationoverload,humanbeingshaveanaturalfilteringsystem.Onlyinformationperceivedasimportantwouldundergoseriousanalyticalreasoning.Therestwouldbeignored.theorganinsidethebrainwhichisresponsiblefordeterminingwhethersomethingis“importantandOur

12

Apparentmotion

MarsandSunaroundtheearth Ptolemy’segocentristicCenterof CenterofepicyclemovesPtolemy’segocentristicCenterof ondifferentandepicyclemovescounterclockwise.Epicyclespeedisuniformwithrespecttoequant.Thecombinedmotionisshownatright.

Mars’epicyclecarriesitoncycloidpath(points1through7)sothatfrompoint3through5,Marsmovesbackward(retrograde).

The"equant"isanimaginarypointthat"sees"theplanetmoveatauniformangularspeed.Itsnotlocatinginthecenteroftheorbitcausestheplanet'sactualspeedontheorbittochange.Theroleof“Thegoalwhichphysicalsciencehassetitselfisthesimplestandmosteconomicalabstractexpressionoffacts.Inreality,thelawalwayscontainslessthanthefactitself,becauseitdoesnotreproducethefactasawholebutonlyinthataspectofitwhichisimportantforus,therestbeingintentionallyorfromnecessityomitted.(ErnstMach)TheoreticalATheoryisageneralsetoflawsandprinciplesofbroadscope,fromwhichdifferentmodelsandidealizationsarederivedfromvariousauxiliaryassumptions.Amodelistheoreticalstatement,(sometimesintheformofanequation)usuallydeducedfromatheorywiththeaidaauxiliaryThatis,amodelMisequaltoatheoryTcombinedwithanauxiliaryassumptionA(whichwillbelonglistofassumptionsinmostcases).Thatis,M=T&A.TheLawofdiminishingmarginalThetheoryofdemandandTheclassicaleconomicAnLawofdiminishingmarginal ClassicaleconomicTheoryofDemand&TwoclocksofperfectTomwasintheCityHospitallastnightat2amHedrankalotofwineonthatHehadastrongargumentwithhisgirlfriendthenightHiscarranintoacarinHedroveinthehighwayneartheHedidnotpressthebrakeofhiscarduringtheHebroughtthiscarlastSomeonecalledanambulanceaftertheTheCityHospitalisthehospitalclosesttotheaccidentKarlBenzinventedautomobilesinlate1800’sinTheriver-sidehighwaywasopenedthreeyearsReasonandWoulditbebetterifwerelyonourreasoninordertosearchforknowledge?DeductionandLimitationofdeductionSyllogism逻辑三段论Majorpremise:AllhumansareMinorpremise:SomeanimalsareConclusion:SomeanimalsareInductioncannotbeprovedbyInductioncannotbeprovedbyBertrandRussell’sinductivistTheproblemofProbability(ModifiedMajorpremise:MosthumansareMinorpremise:SomeanimalsareConclusion:MosthumanareThisprobabilityvariesinverselywiththecontentofThisprobabilityvariesinverselywithexplanatoryAstatementwithhighprobabilitymustbeonewhichisverylimited(KarlPopper)Whenwerunoverlibraries,persuadedoftheseprinciples,whathavocmustwemake?Ifwetakeinourhandanyvolume;ofdivinityorschoolmetaphysics,forinstance;letusask,Doesitcontainanyabstractreasoningconcerningquantityornumber?No.Doesitcontainanyexperimentalreasoningconcerningmatteroffactandexistence?No.Commititthentotheflames:Foritcancontainnothingbutsophistryandillusion.(Anenquiryconcerninghumanunderstanding,DavidHume)LogicalPositivism实证论wasfoundedbyAugusteComte(孔德whointroducedtheterm"positivism."Positivismisaphilosophythatholdsthattheonlyauthenticknowledgeisthatwhichisbasedonactualsenseexperience.Positivismdeclaredfalseandsenselessallproblems,conceptsandpropositionsoftraditionalphilosophyonbeing,substances,causes.,etc.,thatcouldnotbesolvedorverifiedbyexperienceduetoahighdegreeofabstractnature.Logicalpositivism(alsocalledlogicalempiricismandneo-positivism)isaschoolofphilosophythatcombinesempiricism,theideathatobservationalevidenceisindispensableforknowledgeoftheworld,withaversionofrationalismincorporatingmathematicalandlogical-linguisticconstructsanddeductionsinThereareonlytwotypesofmeaningfulLogicalormathematicalstatementsFactualstatementsthatcanbevalidated.KarlPopper(波普爾1902-thepositivists'criterionofverifiabilitywasstrongacriterionforscience,andshouldreplacedbyacriterionofFalsifiabilityvs.Threeexamples:evolution,1959

EvolutionFreud’stheory弗洛伊德SocialBlau.(1967).Blau.(1967).Exchangeandpowerinsociallife.NewYork:TheimportanceofHo:Basedonthesocialexchangetheory,employeeswhohavehighleader-member-exchangewiththeirleaderwouldhavehighorganizationalcitizenshipSocialexchangeversusEconomictrustforaproportionatereturnunknowntimeframeunspecifiedobligations(contentofLeader-MembereXchange(LMX)OrganizationalCitizenshipBehaviors(OCB)TheimportanceofHo:Basedonthesocialexchangetheory,employeeswhohavehighGuanxiwiththeirleaderwouldhavehigh

Researchresults:GX↑→PerfWhatdoesthatS/XtheoryisTheimportanceofHo:Allravensareblack.Observation:oneravenisnotblack.HypothesisHo:Allravensareblack.Obs:Ho:Allravensareblack.Obs:oneravenisblack.Hosupported.Ho:Allravensareblack.Obs:oneraveniswhite.Hoisreject.HoHo:AllravensareH1:Anythingnotblackisnotaraven.Obs:Awhiteshoeisnotblack.Con:AwhiteshoeisnotaHo:AllravensareH1:Anythingnotblackisnotaraven.Obs:Ablackshoeisblack.Con:Ablackshoeisnota TheimportanceofHo:Basedonthesocialexchangetheory,employeeswhohavehighguanxiwiththeirleaderwouldhavehighResearchresults:GX↑→PerfWhatdoesthatGXaffectPerfbecauseofS/XandonthingIfS/Xistrue,GXmustaffectNo“maybe”;No“probable”;NoOneproblemofresearchwithoutHo:Allravensareblack.Obs:IsawonemoreblackBlau.(1967).Exchangeandpowerinsociallife.NewYork:TheimportanceofTheWasonandJohnson-Llaird,1972“selectionWhichmasksdoyouhavetoremovetoknowwhetheritistruethat:“ifthereisacircleontheleftofacard,thereisacircleontherightaswell.”TwoproblemsofItisdestructiveinThespiritofscience–ItisagainstthefactandExampleEarlyinthe18thcentury,astrophysicistshadfoundthatthepathofUranus(天王星)cannotbepreciouslypredictedusingNewtonianmechanics.TheobservationisUranusdoesnotorbitaroundtheSuninanexpectedellipticalpathaccordingtoKepler’s开普勒Countertotheprincipleoffalsifiability,theplanetNeptunewasfoundbytwoscientistsinSeptember231846.LateronPluto冥王星)wasdiscoveredbecauseNeptune’sorbitwasfoundtobe“disturbedbyanotherunknownplanet”.ExampleWhenWhenNicolausCopernicus哥白尼proposedheliocentrism日心说)in1514,theargumentwasrefutedbyagroupofastrophysistsarguingthatif“itweretheearthorbitingaroundthesun,weshouldseedeviationswhenweobservethesunatdifferenttimesoftheThomasKuhn库恩Normalscienceasdevelopment，preservationandredevelopmentofresearchparadigmsTheStructureofScientificRevolution.Chicago:UniversityofChicagoPress,3rdedition,scientificcommunityacknowledgesforatimeassupplyingthefoundationforitsfurtherpractices.Thejobofscientificdiscoveryisnotaccomplishedbysingleindividuals,butgroupsofindividualsfollowingthesameparadigm.Achievementsthatsharethesetwocharacteristicsarecalled“paradigms.”Paradigmshavetwocharacteristics:TheirachievementwassufficientlyunprecedentedtoattractandenduringgroupofadherentsawayfromcompetingmodesofscientificItwassufficientlyopen-endedtoleaveallsortsofproblemsfortheredefinedgroupofpractitionerstoresolve.Kuhn,T.S.ThestructureofScientificRevolution.Chicago:TheUniversityofChicagoPress,ScientificAAnewAnAnotherexample:TheFirstAnotherAnotherThethird

Mostlikelylocation

locationof

ThesecondmostlikelylocationofSource:Greene,Brian.(2003)Theelegantuniverse,NewYork:VintageBooks.ImreanattempttoresolvetheperceivedconflictbetweenPopper'sfalsificationismandtherevolutionarystructureofsciencedescribedbyKuhn.Popper'stheoryasoftenreported(inaccurately)impliedthatscientistsshouldgiveupatheoryassoonastheyencounteranyfalsifyingevidence,immediatelyreplacingitwithincreasingly'boldandpowerful'newhypotheses.However,Kuhndescribedscienceasconsistingofperiodsofnormalscienceinwhichscientistscontinuetoholdtheirtheoriesinthefaceofanomalies,interspersedwithperiodsofgreatconceptualchange.core”oftheprogramwhichis“irrefutable”bythemethodologicaldecisionofitsarticulatedsetofsuggestionsorhintsonhowtochangeorsophisticate,the“refutable”protectivebelt.ImreProgramofmethodologicalWhatpathstoavoid(negativeheuristic)–nochangetothehardcoreWhatpathstopursue(positiveheuristic)–newsupportinghypothesesSupportingHardprotective

(modustollens–denyingtheconsequent)ExamplesofExample:LeVerrierandAdamswerefacedwiththefollowingprobleminNewton'stheoryofplanetarymotion.Therewerediscrepancies(unpredictedwobbles)inthemotionoftheoutermostplanetknownatthetime(Uranus).Theypostulatedthatthesemightbecausedbyahithertounknownplanet.BasedonthatconjecturetheyrecalculatedthesolutionstoNewton'sequations,andfitthesolutionstotheknowndataforUranus.Thatfitevenpredictedthepositionofthepostulatedplanet,whereuponNeptunewasseenforthefirsttimeoncetelescopeswerepointedinthatdirection(actually,itwaslaterdiscoveredthatithadbeenseenbefore,butmistakenforacomet).Inthisexample,thepositiveheuristicusedwassomethinglikethis:"IfthereisananomalyinNewton'stheoryontheassumptionthattherearenplanets,thentryassumingthattherearen+1planets."WhenShouldOneModelSupercedeLakatosdoesnotbelievethatfalsificationisimportantinscience,butlikeKuhn,hedoesrecognizethattheories,orparadigms,aresupercededinscience.HeobjectstoKuhn'sdescriptionofthisprocess,ofscientificrevolutions,asbeingalikeareligiousconversion,orasocialrevolution.Lakatosthinksthattheprocessismoreobjective.Hereishisview1.ThesophisticatedfalsificationistregardsascientifictheoryPasfalsifiedifandonlyifanothertheoryQhasbeenproposedwiththefollowingQhasexcessempiricalcontentoverP;thatisitpredcitsnovelfacts,thatis,factsimprobableinthelightof,orevenforbiddenbyP;QexplainstheprevioussuccessofP,thatis,alltheunrefutedcontentofPiscontained(withinthelimitsofobservationalerror)inthecontentofQ;SomeoftheexcesscontentofQisconfirmedThisisLakatos'saccountofnormal12Lakatos,I.(1970).Falsificationandthemethodologyofscientificresearchprogrammes.InCriticismandthegrowthofknowledge.(1970)ImreLakatos&AlanMusgrave(Ed),London:CambridgeUniversityPress,p.116WhenShouldOneModelSupercedeLakatosintroducessomenewterminologytohelpformulatehistheoryofAAproblemshiftisaseriesofmodels...M1,M2,...sucheachcanexplaintheempiricalsuccessofitspredecessor,eachcanexplainatleastsomeoftheempricalfailureofitpredecessorasInotherwords,aLakatosianproblemshiftoccurswheneveraKuhniansolutiontoanormalsciencepuzzleisfound,sincetobeasolutionismustremovetheanomalywithcreatingnewone.Notethataproblemshiftdoesnothavetomakenovelpredictions.AtheoreticallyprogressiveproblemshiftisaproblemshiftthatpredictssomenovelAproblemshiftisempiricallyprogressiveifitistheoreticallyprogressiveandsomeofthenovelpredictionshavebeencorroborated.Example1:TheLeVerrier-AdamsdiscoveryofNeptuneisagreatexampleofaproblemshiftthatwasprogressive,because(1)itledtonovelpredictions(thepositionofNeptune),which(2)werethencorroborated.Example2:Ptolemaicastronomywasdegeneratingnotbecauseitfailedtobetheoreticallyprogressive(Ptolemaicastronomershadtheoptionofaddingmoreepicycles)butbecauseitwasnotempiricallyprogressive.Thatis,addinganepicyclewouldleadtonovelpredictions,buttheywerenotcorroborated(confirmed).PointsofDisagreementbetweenLakatosandSubjectiveorobjective?Kuhn’sdemarcationcriterionappearstobesubjective--itdependsonwhatscientistsdoandwhattheybelieve(theirpsychology).Incontrast,Lakatosinsiststhatastatementmaybepseudoscientificevenifitiseminently‘plausible’andeveryonebelievesinit."Beliefthatearthisflatmaycountasanexampleofthat.And"itmaybescientificallyvaluableevenifitisunbelievableandnobodybelievesinit."Copernicus'stheorythatthesunmoveslikethat,andveryfewbelievedinevolutionwhenDarwinintroducedhistheory.Sociologyorlogic?Lakatos,asaneo-Popperian,wasraisedinthetraditioninwhichlogicwasthemaintoolinphilosophyofscience,whereasKuhnismoreinterestedinthesociologyofscience.ReligionorScience?Kuhncomparessciencetoreligion,butLakatosrejectsthiscomparison.

MainPointofAgreementbetweenLakatosandAnygoodsciencecanbepracticedinapseudoscientificway.Thedemarcationbetweenscienceandpseudosciencereferstoitsmethodandnotjustwhatthetheorysays(itscontent).Forexample,someevolutionistsmaybetemptedtofillinauxiliaryassumptionsinanadhocwaybyworkingbackwardsfromwhatistobeexplained.Forexample,ifseefromthefossilrecordthathorsesteethbecomeelongated,wemaybetemptedintousingevolutionarytheorytoinferthattherewassomechangeintheenvironmentthatmadeshorterteethlessfit,andthenexplainthechangebyappealingtothelawofnaturalselectionthat"onlythefittestsurvive."ItwouldbeequallyeasyforNewtonianmechanicstobepracticedinapseudoscientificway.Afterall,Newtonslawofinertiasaysthatabodycontinuesinastraightlinewithuniformvelocityuntilactedonbyaforce,andthendefinesaforceasanythingthatdivertsabodyfromuniformmotioninastraightline.Lakatosvs.LakatosisagreeingwithKuhn,againstPopper,thattheessenceofscienceliesinthenatureofnormalscience.Example:Astrologyhasnotheoreticallyprogressiveproblemshifts,andthereforenoempiricallyprogressiveproblemshifts.Thatis,itmadenonovelpredictions,despitethatfactthatitmadepredictions.Therefore,astrologywasnotascience.Example:JeaneDixonwasaself-proclaimedpsychicwhopredictedthatJFK'sassassination.Shemadeover200predictionseachyear(mostofthemwrongofcourse).Didhermethodcountasscientific?ItwouldbebyPopper'scriterion,butnotbyKuhn'sorLakatos'sdemarcationcriteria.Likeastrology,therewasnoKuhnianpuzzlesolving,andnotheoreticallyprogressiveproblemshifts.ModernManagement

他性」两个特点（ifandonlyif）的。意思是：如果理论是对的，一定会看见假设的结果（if必然性）；只有该理论才会产生预期的结果（onlyif排他性）“可能“好Whereareweheading1.Social1.SocialExchangeResourcesBasedFinancialcapital;humancapital;psychologicalWhatconstitutethe(3)Model&The(3)Model&(4)(5)(2)(1) OurcurrentInter-relationshipamongthevariablesformstheWhenexplainingthehypotheses,weIfthetheoryweretrue,itmightleadtoHoThesameHocanbeexplainedbymanydifferenttheoriesWhenwethehypothesesweresupported,wefocusedontheresultsthemselves,notthetheorybehindthem.

LeadershipseemstobedispositionalNotenough“Whydon’tculturemoderatethelowerpath?”“ThisiswhyIdonotlikethismodel.Thispathisonlysignificantat.10.Isthat“ThatisanotherquestionIwanttoaskyou.goodtheoryforthismodel?Issocialexchangetheoryuseful“Whyissocialexchangetheoryapplicable“Ihavethoughtaboutitforalongwhile.Maybetheexchangeprocessbetweenleadersandfollowersisconstrainedoramplifiedbyorganizationalculture.……DoyouthinkthisisagoodTheoryofReasonYoucanputinanythingyouTRA(Ajzen&Fishbein,1980,Understandingattitudesandpredictingsocialbehaivor,prenticehall)TPA(Ajzen1991,OBHDP,50(2),179-Attitude=belief*Subjectivenorm=expectationofreferentother*SubjectivePerceivedSubjectiveCosmicBackgroundIneverydirection,thereisaverylowenergyandveryuniformradiationthatweseefillingtheUniverse.Thisiscalledthe3DegreeKelvinBackgroundRadiation,ortheCosmicBackgroundRadiation,ortheMicrowaveBackground.

theCMBradiationisvery

only2.725°abovezero,thusthisradiationshinesprimarilyinthemicrowaveportionoftheelectromagneticspectrum,andisinvisibletothenakedeye.ThistemperaturewillcontinuetodropiftheuniversecontinuestoIn1978,PenziasandWilsonwereawardedtheNobelPrizeforPhysicsfortheirjointdiscovery.Source:BackgroundIn1978,PenziasandWilsonwereawardedtheNobelPrizeforPhysicsfortheirjointdiscovery.ThephenomenonofRed-Redshiftofspectrallinesintheopticalspectrumofasuperclusterofdistantgalaxies(right),ascomparedwiththatoftheSun(left).Wavelengthincreasesuptowardstheredandbeyond(frequencydecreases).Source:Doppler’s Red-shiftandHubble’sAnyincreaseinwavelengthiscalled"redshift.“AccordingtotheDopplerEffect,frequencyofwavesforobjectsmovingtowardstheobserverwouldincrease.Aredshiftcanoccurwhenalightsourcemovesawayfromanobserver.AgoodexplanationoftheredshiftphenomenonofadistantgalaxyisthatitismovingawayfromusintheHowever,wefoundthattheredshiftinlightcomingfromdistantgalaxiesisproportionaltotheirdistance(Hubble'slaw).Source:TheTheBigBangAccordingtotheBigBang,theuniverseemergedfromanextremelydenseandhotstate(bottom).Sincethen,spaceitselfhasexpandedwiththepassageoftime,carryingthegalaxieswithit.AbusinessLMX---in-groupandout-In-In-CloseFeelNormalFeelLMXOurobjectiveAimattheidentificationoftruescientificmanagementknowledgethatisverifiable,replicableandareusefuldescriptionofthemanagementworld.Phenomenalresearchvs.TheorydevelopmentresearchCommitmentorientedHRpracticeswouldleadtohigheremployeecommitment.Found“Attitudetowardsolderadults”effectonserviceworkers(orsocialworkers)(3)Model&The(3)Model&

(4) (5)(2)(1) Whynottheories?TheTheproblemisthatinthepast,managementscientistsdonothavepublicationpressure.Theycanspendtheirwholelifeonaveryspecificissueandcomeupwithoneimportantfindingwhichmaybringindrasticchangesorcontributiontotheliterature.Butmodernscholarscannotdothat.Ifwedonotpublish3to5top-tierpapersinsixyears(oratleastSSCI),youwillbekickedoutfromtheuniversityorhavetoworkasateachingprofessorwhoteachesatleast8coursesayear.Mysuggestionistofocusonaninterestingresearchquestionorissueandtrytopublishsomesmallstudiesaroundit.WhynotdevelopTheproblemofdoingscatteredresearchisthatitislimited.Afterfinishingonephenomenalresearch,thereisnothingtocontinue.Incontrast,ifyoustartandendwitharesearchphenomenon,youwouldaimatdevelopinga theoryoruseanexistingtheorytosolvetheresearchquestion.Canwehaveaphenomenalresearchwhichiscomplexenoughtostartalineofresearch?ThereforeIdonotsuggestyoutoaddonevariabletoanestablishedmodelinordertowriteaStartwitharesearchUsedifferentresearchmethodsandaskdifferentrelatedquestionstoaddressyourresearchquestionToomuchofagood“Theorieshelpusorganizeourthoughts,generatecoherentexplanations,andimproveourpredictions.Inshort,theorieshelpusachi