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ElectricityMarket
Report2023
INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY
TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrumofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,
electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocates
policiesthatwillenhancethereliability,
affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits31membercountries,11associationcountriesandbeyond.
Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationof
internationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.
Source:IEA.
InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:
IEAmembercountries:
AustraliaAustria
BelgiumCanada
CzechRepublic
DenmarkEstonia
Finland
France
GermanyGreece
HungaryIrelandItaly
Japan
Korea
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Mexico
NetherlandsNewZealand
NorwayPolandPortugal
SlovakRepublic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA
IEAassociationcountries:
ArgentinaBrazil
China
Egypt
India
IndonesiaMorocco
Singapore
SouthAfricaThailand
Ukraine
ElectricityMarketReport2023
Abstract
IEA.CCBY4.0.
PAGE|3
Abstract
Electricityiscentraltomanypartsoflifeinmodernsocietiesandwillbecomeevenmoresoasitsroleintransportandheatingexpandsthroughtechnologiessuchaselectricvehiclesandheatpumps.
Powergenerationiscurrentlythelargestsourceofcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsglobally,butitisalsothesectorthatisleadingthetransitiontonetzeroemissionsthroughtherapidrampingupof
renewablessuchassolarandwind.Atthesametime,thecurrentglobalenergycrisishasplacedelectricitysecurityandaffordabilityhighonthepoliticalagendainmanycountries.
TheInternationalEnergyAgency’sElectricityMarketReport2023
offersadeepanalysisofrecentpolicies,trendsandmarket
developments.Italsoprovidesforecaststhrough2025forelectricitydemand,supplyandCO2emissions–withadetailedstudyoftheevolvinggenerationmix.Thisyear’sreportcontainsa
comprehensiveanalysisofdevelopmentsinEurope,whichfacedavarietyofenergycrisesin2022.TheAsiaPacificregionalso
receivesspecialfocus,withitsfast-growingelectricitydemandandacceleratingcleanenergydeployment.
TheIEA’sElectricityMarketReporthasbeenpublishedsince2020.Itsrelevancegoesbeyondenergyandclimateissues,since
electricitysupplyimpactseconomies,regionaldevelopment,the
budgetsofbusinessesandhouseholds,andmanyotherareas.Itisindispensablereadingforanyoneinterestedinthemultifaceted
importanceofenergyinoureconomiesandsocietiestoday.
ElectricityMarketReport2023
Tableofcontents
IEACCBY4.0.
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Tableofcontents
Executivesummary 5
Globaloverview 11
Demand 12
Supply 20
Emissions 31
Wholesaleprices 34
Carbonpricingtrends 38
Regionalperspectives 41
AsiaPacific 42
Americas 63
Europe 74
Eurasia 93
MiddleEast 99
Africa 108
Generalannex 118
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Executivesummary
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Executivesummary
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ExecutiveSummary
Globalelectricitydemandgrowthslowedonlyslightlyin2022despiteenergycrisisheadwinds
Worldelectricitydemandremainedresilientin2022amidthe
globalenergycrisistriggeredbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.
Demandrosebyalmost2%comparedwiththe2.4%average
growthrateseenovertheperiod2015-2019.Theelectrificationofthetransportandheatingsectorscontinuedtoaccelerateglobally,withrecordnumbersofelectricvehiclesandheatpumpssoldin
2022contributingtogrowth.Nevertheless,economiesaroundthe
world,inthemidstofrecoveringfromtheimpactsofCovid-19,werebatteredbyrecord-highenergyprices.Soaringpricesforenergy
commodities,includingnaturalgasandcoal,sharplyescalated
powergenerationcostsandcontributedtoarapidriseininflation.Economicslowdownsandhighelectricitypricesstifledelectricitydemandgrowthinmostregionsaroundtheworld.
ElectricityconsumptionintheEuropeanUnionrecordeda
sharp3.5%declineyear-on-year(y-o-y)in2022astheregionwasparticularlyhardhitbyhighenergyprices,whichledtosignificant
demanddestructionamongindustrialconsumers.Exceptionallymildwinteraddedfurtherdownwardpressureonelectricityconsumption.ThiswastheEU’ssecondlargestpercentagedecreaseinelectricitydemandsincetheglobalfinancialcrisisin2009–withthelargest
beingtheexceptionalcontractionduetotheCovid-19shockin2020.
ElectricitydemandinIndiaandtheUnitedStatesrose,while
CovidrestrictionsaffectedChina’sgrowth.China’szero-Covidpolicyweighedheavilyonitseconomicactivityin2022,anda
degreeofuncertaintyremainsoverthepaceofitselectricity
demandgrowth.Wecurrentlyestimateittobe2.6%in2022,
substantiallybelowitspre-pandemicaverageofover5%inthe
2015-2019period.FurtherdataexpectedinduecoursewillprovidegreaterclarityontrendsinChinain2022,whichcouldalsohave
implicationsfortheglobalpicture.ElectricitydemandinIndiarosebyastrong8.4%in2022,duetoacombinationofitsrobustpost-pandemiceconomicrecoveryandexceptionallyhighsummer
temperatures.TheUnitedStatesrecordedasignificant2.6%y-o-y
demandincreasein2022,drivenbyeconomicactivityandhigherresidentialusetomeetbothheatingandcoolingneedsamidhottersummerweatherandacolder-than-normalwinter.
Low-emissionssourcesaresettocoveralmostallthe
growthinglobalelectricitydemandby2025
Renewablesandnuclearenergywilldominatethegrowthofglobalelectricitysupplyoverthenextthreeyears,together
meetingonaveragemorethan90%oftheadditionaldemand.
Chinaaccountsformorethan45%ofthegrowthinrenewable
ElectricityMarketReport2023
Executivesummary
IEA.CCBY4.0.
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generationintheperiod2023-2025,followedbytheEUwith15%.Thesubstantialgrowthofrenewableswillneedtobeaccompaniedbyacceleratedinvestmentsingridsandflexibilityfortheir
successfulintegrationintothepowersystems.Theincreasein
nuclearoutputresultsfromanexpectedrecoveryinFrenchnucleargenerationasmoreplantscompletetheirscheduledmaintenance,andfromnewplantsstartingoperations,largelyinAsia.
Globalelectricitygenerationfrombothnaturalgasandcoalisexpectedtoremainbroadlyflatbetween2022and2025.Whilegas-firedgenerationintheEuropeanUnionisforecasttodecline,significantgrowthintheMiddleEastwillpartlyoffsetthisdecrease.
Similarly,dropsincoal-firedgenerationinEuropeandtheAmericaswillbematchedbyariseinAsiaPacific.However,thetrendsin
fossil-firedgenerationremainsubjecttodevelopmentsintheglobaleconomy,weatherevents,fuelpricesandgovernmentpolicies.
DevelopmentsinChina,wheremorethanhalfoftheworld’scoal-firedgenerationoccurs,willremainakeyfactor.
China’sshareofglobalelectricityconsumptionisforecasttorisetoone-thirdby2025,comparedwithone-quarterin2015.
Overthenextthreeyears,morethan70%ofthegrowthinglobalelectricitydemandissettocomefromChina,IndiaandSoutheastAsiacombined.Emerginganddevelopingeconomies’growthis
accompaniedbyacorrespondingriseindemandforelectricity.Atthesametime,advancedeconomiesarepushingforelectrificationtodecarbonisetheirtransportation,heatingandindustrialsectors.
Asaresult,globalelectricitydemandisexpectedtogrowatamuch
fasterpaceof3%peryearoverthe2023-2025periodcomparedwiththe2022growthrate.Thetotalincreaseinglobalelectricity
demandofabout2500terawatt-hours(TWh)outto2025ismorethandoubleJapan'scurrentannualelectricityconsumption.
Nevertheless,uncertaintiesexistregardingthegrowthofelectricitydemandinChina.Whilethecountryrecentlyeaseditsstringent
CovidrestrictionsinearlyDecember2022,thefullextentoftheeconomicimpactsremainunclear.
Afterreachinganall-timehighin2022,power
generationemissionsaresettoplateauthrough2025
GlobalCO2emissionsfromelectricitygenerationgrewin2022ataratesimilartothe2016-2019average.Theirincreaseof1.3%in2022isasignificantslowdownfromthestaggering6%risein
2021,whichwasdrivenbytherapideconomicrecoveryfromtheCovidshock.Nonetheless,electricitygeneration-relatedCO2
emissionsreachedarecordhighin2022.
Theshareofrenewablesintheglobalpowergenerationmixisforecasttorisefrom29%in2022to35%in2025.Asrenewablesexpand,thesharesofcoal-andgas-firedgenerationaresettofall.Asaresult,emissionsofglobalpowergenerationwillplateauto
2025anditsCO2intensitywillfurtherdeclineinthecomingyears.
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Executivesummary
IEA.CCBY4.0.
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TheEuropeanUnionsawgas-firedgenerationincreaseduringaturbulent2022
Duetohistoricdroughtconditions,hydropowergenerationin
Europewasparticularlylowin2022.Italysawadropin
hydropowergenerationofmorethan30%comparedwithits2017-2021average,followedcloselybySpain.Similarly,Francerecorded
a20%declineinitshydrooutputcomparedwiththepreviousfive-yearaverage.
NucleargenerationintheEuropeanUnionwas17%lowerin
2022thanin2021duetoclosuresandunavailabilities.Plant
closuresinGermanyandBelgiumreducedtheavailablenuclear
capacityin2022.Atthesametime,Francefacedrecord-lownuclearavailabilityduetoongoingmaintenanceworkandotherchallengesinitsnuclearfleet.Theconstrainednuclearoutputandlow
hydropowersupplyinEurope–combinedwithreduced
dispatchablecapacityduetopreviousretirementsofthermalgenerationplants–putadditionalpressureonremaining
dispatchablecapacitiestomeetdemand.Asaresult,although
variablerenewablegenerationgrewandrecord-highgasprices
supportedfuel-switchingfromgastocoal,gas-firedgenerationgrewin2022by2%intheEuropeanUnion.Thesefactorshavealso
contributedtosignificantchangesinthetraditionalimport-export
structureofelectricityinEurope:FrancebecameanetimporterandtheUnitedKingdomanetexporterforthefirsttimeindecades.
Inordertoincreasethesecurityofelectricitysupply,reservecapacitiesofconventionalpowergenerationhavebeen
broughtbackinEuropeforthe2022-2023and2023-2024
winters.Similarly,someplantsthatwerepreviouslysettobe
decommissionedwerealsoextended.Germanyhadthehighest
shareofsuchplantsinEurope,havingdelayedtheplanned
shutdownofitsthreeremainingnuclearreactors,aswellas
delayingtheclosureorreactivatingfossil-firedplantsthatmakeup15%ofitscurrentfossil-firedgenerationcapacity.AnincreasedriskofpoweroutageswasreportedinsomeEuropeancountriesduringseveralweeksofcoldweathercombinedwithlower-than-averagehydroandnuclearoutput.Securityofsupplywasachievedthroughsuccessfulshort-termplanningandmanagement.
WhiletheCO2intensityofglobalpowergeneration
decreasedin2022,itincreasedintheEuropeanUnion
After2021,2022marksthehighestpercentagegrowthinCO2emissionsofEUpowergenerationsincetheoilcrisesofthe
1970s,recordinga4.5%year-on-yeargrowth.Excludingthe2021post-pandemicrebound,theEuropeanUnionalsosawin2022thehighestabsolutegrowthinpowergenerationemissionssince2003.Thiswasmainlyduetoariseincoal-firedgenerationofmorethan6%instarkcontrasttothealmost8%averageannualrateof
declineincoal-firedgenerationoverthepre-pandemicperiodof2015-2019.
ThesetbackintheEuropeanUnionwillbetemporary,however,aspowergenerationemissionsareexpectedtodecreaseon
averagebyabout10%annuallythrough2025.Bothcoal-andgas-
ElectricityMarketReport2023
Executivesummary
IEA.CCBY4.0.
PAGE|9
firedgenerationareexpectedtoseesharpfalls,withcoaldecliningby10%andgasbyalmost12%annuallyonaverageoverthe
outlookperiodasrenewablesrampupandnucleargenerationrecovers.
Electricitypricesremainhighinmanyregions,withrisksoftightsupplyinEuropenextwinter
Theincreaseinwholesaleelectricitypriceswasmost
pronouncedinEuropein2022,wheretheywere,onaverage,
morethantwiceashighasin2021.Theexceptionallymildwintersofarin2022/23inEuropehashelpedtemperwholesaleelectricity
prices,buttheyremainhighcomparedwithrecentyears.Elevatedfuturespricesforwinter2023/24reflecttheuncertaintiesregardinggassupplyinEuropeoverthecomingyear.
IntheEuropeanUnion,awiderangeofresponsestothe
energycrisishavebeenobserved.Inordertoreducerelianceonfossilfuelsandtoincreaseresiliencetopriceshocks,theEuropean
CommissionpublisheditsREPowerEUplaninMay2022to
acceleratecleanenergydeployment.Atthesametime,discussionsaboutelectricitymarketdesigngainedmomentumduetosoaring
wholesaleprices,andtheCommissionlaunchedaconsultationonmarketdesignreform.Todampentheeffectsofhighelectricity
pricesonconsumers,manycountriesintroducedmeasuressuchastheregulationofwholesaleandretailprices;revenuecapsoninfra-marginaltechnologiessuchasrenewables,nuclearandcoal-
plants;reductionsofenergytaxesandVAT;anddirectsubsidies.
Whilesuchmarketinterventionscanhelpmitigatetheimpactsoftheenergycrisis,thepotentialcreationofuncertaintyintheinvestmentlandscapeneedstobeminimisedtoensurethatresponsestothe
crisisdonotcomeattheexpenseofmuch-neededinvestment.
Affordabilitywillcontinuetobeachallengeforemerginganddevelopingeconomies
Globally,higherelectricitygenerationcostsin2022were
drivenbysurgingenergycommodityprices.Whilethecost
increasesweremoremoderateincountrieswithregulatedtariffs
andlong-termfuelsupplyagreements(oil-indexedLNG,long-termcontractsorfuelsupplycontracts),regionsdependentonshort-termmarketsforfuelprocurementwereseverelyaffected.Inparticular,record-highLNGpricesledtodifficultiesforSouthAsiancountriestryingtoprocuregasforthepowersector,whichcontributedto
blackoutsandrationingofelectricityintheregion.Ifpricesofenergycommoditiesremainelevated,fuelprocurementwillcontinuetobeaseriousissueforemerginganddevelopingeconomies.
NuclearpowerisgatheringpaceinAsia,curbingtheCO2intensityofpowergeneration
TheenergycrisishasrenewedinterestintheroleofnuclearpowerincontributingtoenergysecurityandreducingtheCO2
intensityofpowergeneration.InEuropeandtheUnitedStates,discussionsonthefutureroleofnuclearintheenergymixhaveresurfaced.Atthesametime,otherpartsoftheworldarealready
ElectricityMarketReport2023
Executivesummary
IEA.CCBY4.0.
PAGE|10
seeinganaccelerateddeploymentofnuclearplants.Asaresult,globalnuclearpowergenerationissettogrowonaverageby
almost4%over2023-2025,asignificantlyhighergrowthratethanthe2%over2015-2019.Thismeansthatineveryyearto2025,about100TWhofadditionalelectricityissettobeproducedbynuclearpower,theequivalentofaboutone-eighthofUSnuclearpowergenerationtoday.
Morethanhalfofthegrowthinglobalnucleargenerationto
2025comesfromjustfourcountries:China,India,JapanandKorea.Amongthesecountries,whileChinaleadsintermsof
absolutegrowthfrom2022to2025(+58TWh),Indiaissettohavethehighestpercentagegrowth(+81%),followedbyJapan.This
resultsfromtheJapanesegovernment’spushtorampupnucleargenerationinordertoreducerelianceongasimportsand
strengthenenergysecurity.OutsideAsia,theFrenchnuclearfleetprovidesmorethanone-thirdoftheabsolutegrowthinglobal
nucleargenerationto2025asitgraduallyrecovers.
Extremeweathereventshighlighttheneedforincreasedsecurityofsupplyandresilience
Inaworldwhereboththedemandandsupplyofelectricityarebecomingincreasinglyweather-dependent,electricitysecurityrequiresincreasedattention.Alongwiththehighcostofelectricitygeneration,theworld’spowersystemsalsofacedchallengesfromextremeweathereventsin2022.Inadditiontothedroughtin
Europe,therewereheatwavesinIndia,wherethehottestMarchin
overacenturywasrecorded,resultinginthecountry’shighesteverpeakinpowerdemand.Similarly,centralandeasternChinawere
hitbyheatwavesanddrought,whichcauseddemandforair
conditioningtosurgeamidreducedhydropowergenerationin
Sichuan.TheUnitedStatessawseverewinterstormsinDecember,triggeringmassivepoweroutages.Mitigatingtheimpactsofclimatechangerequiresfasterdecarbonisationandaccelerateddeploymentofcleanenergytechnologies.Atthesametime,asthecleanenergytransitiongatherspace,theimpactofweathereventsonelectricitydemandwillintensifyduetotheincreasedelectrificationofheating,whiletheshareofweather-dependentrenewableswillcontinuetogrowinthegenerationmix.Insuchaworld,increasingtheflexibility
ofthepowersystemswhileensuringsecurityofsupplyandresiliencewillbecrucial.
ElectricityMarketReport2023
Globaloverview
IEA.CCBY4.0.
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Globaloverview
ElectricityMarketReport2023
Globaloverview
IEA.CCBY4.0.
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Demand
ElectricityMarketReport2023
Globaloverview
IEA.CCBY4.0.
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Globalelectricitydemandgrowtheasedin2022,butissettoacceleratefrom2023,ledbyAsia
TheenergycrisissparkedbytheRussianFederation’s(hereafter
“Russia”)invasionofUkrainehasbeencharacterisedbyrecord-highcommodityprices,weakereconomicgrowthandhighinflation.
Higherfuelpricesincreasedthecostofelectricitygenerationaroundtheworld,puttingdownwardpressureonconsumptioninmany
regions.Despitetheworseningcrisis,globalelectricitydemandremainedrelativelyresilient,growingbyalmost2%in2022.
By2025,forthefirsttimeinhistory,Asiawillaccountforhalfoftheworld’selectricityconsumptionandone-thirdofglobalelectricitywillbeconsumedinChina.Overtheoutlookperiod,globalelectricity
demandissettogrowatanacceleratedpace,byanannualised
3%,aselectricityconsumptionincreasesinemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs),ledbythePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafter“China”),IndiaandSoutheastAsia.
Astheenergycrisisabates,globalelectricitydemandgrowthissettorisefrom2.6%in2023toanaverage3.2%in2024-2025.This
strongergrowthiswellabovethepre-pandemicrateof2.4%
observedinthe2015-2019period.Indeed,by2025demandwill
increaseby2500TWhfrom2022levels,whichmeansthatoverthenextthreeyearstheelectricityconsumptionaddedeachyearis
roughlyequivalenttothatoftheUnitedKingdomandGermany
combined.MorethanhalfoftheincreasewillcomefromChina.TheremaininggrowthwilllargelytakeplaceinIndiaandSoutheastAsia.
InChina,electricitydemandgrowthwassubduedonweakereconomicactivityin2022,risingatanestimated2.6%,and
significantlybelowitstrendof5.4%in2015-2019.Chinaisbyfar
theworld’slargestelectricityconsumerat31%ofglobaldemandin2022.For2023-2025weexpectanaverageannualgrowthof5.2%.
InIndia,therobustpost-pandemicrecoverycontinuedtosupportstrongelectricitydemandofover8.4%in2022,whichwas
substantiallyhigherthantheaverageannualgrowthrateof5.3%seeninthe2015-2019period.Thepeaksummerseasonalso
arrivedearlyin2022,resultinginthehottestMarchinovera
century.ElectricitydemandfromMarchtoJulywas12%higherthanthesameperiodin2021.Forthe2023-2025period,weexpect
slightlyslowergrowth,averaging5.6%peryear.
ElectricitydemandintheEuropeanUnion(EU)fell3.5%in2022,withspikingelectricityprices,demanddestructioninelectricity-
intensiveindustries,energysavingmeasuresandamildwinterallcontributingtothedecline.WeexpectEUdemandtogrowby
around1.4%onaveragein2023-2025.
IntheUnitedStates,electricitydemandroseby2.6%in2022,
surpassingpre-Covidlevels.Butanexpectedeconomicslowdownin2023isexpectedtoleadtoadeclineofabout0.6%,before
returningtogrowthof1.2%in2024and1.3%in2025.
InAfrica,electricitydemandroseby1.5%in2022,withgrowth
temperedbybothloftyenergypricesandhighinflationrates.Our
2023-2025outlookfortheregionshowsmuchstrongergrowthofanaverage4.1%,ledbyapost-crisiseconomicrecovery.
ElectricityMarketReport2023
Globaloverview
IEA.CCBY4.0.
PAGE|14
Outto2025,morethan70%ofthegrowthinglobalelectricitydemandissettocomefrom
China,IndiaandSoutheastAsiacombined
Year-on-yearrelativeglobalchangeinelectricitydemand,Year-on-yearchangeinelectricitydemandbyregion,2019-2025
2015-2025
Electricitydemandgrowth
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
TWh
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
HistoricaldemandUpdatedforecast
Previousforecast(July2022)
IEA.CCBY4.0.
1500
1300
1100
900
700
500
300
100
-100
-300
-500
2019202020212022202320242025
China
UnitedStatesONetchange
India
EuropeanUnion
SoutheastAsiaOthers
IEA.CCBY4.0.
ElectricityMarketReport2023
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IEA.CCBY4.0.
PAGE|15
TWh
18%
18%
16%
25%
33%
13%
10%
5%
By2025,Asiawillaccountforhalfoftheworld’selectricityconsumptionandone-thirdofglobal
electricitywillbeconsumedinChina
Evolutionofglobalelectricitydemandbyregion(left)andregionalshares(right),1990-2025
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
19901995200020052010201520202025
oChinaaOtherAsiaaAfricaaRestoftheworld
1990200020152025UnitedStates&OECDEurope
IEA.CCBY4.0.
ElectricityMarketReport2023
Globaloverview
IEA.CCBY4.0.
PAGE|16
Globaleconomicgrowthshowssignsofresiliencebutcontinuestofacechallenges
Theglobaleconomycontinuestofacemyriadchallengesinthe
wakeofRussia’swarinUkraineandtheriseincentralbankratesaimedatcombatingpersistentinflation.TheInternationalMonetaryFund’s(IMF)
January2023WorldEconomicOutlook
provides
forecastsupto2024andshowsglobalGDPgrowthof6.2%in2021contractingto3.4%in2022andeasingto2.9%in2023.By2024,growthincheshigheragain,to3.1%.Thelatestforecastrepresentsdownwardrevisionsof0.2%,0.7%and0.3%,respectively,
comparedwiththe
April2022forecast,
whichunderpinnedourJulyupdate.TheJanuary2023outlook,however,wasslightlymore
optimisticthanthepreviousOctober2022
forecast
fortheshort
term,withglobalGDPgrowthforboth2022and2023raisedby
0.2percentpoints.TheOctoberoutlook,whichprovidedprojectionsupto2027,forecastaglobalGDPgrowthrateof3.4%in2025.
FortheUnitedStates,theIMFreviseditslatestGDPestimateto
2%for2022from3.7%inAprilanditsoutlookto1.4%from2.3%
for2023.Growthisforecastataslower1%in2024.Thecontractingtrendreflectspersistentandbroadeninginflationpressuresand
higherinterestratesthatwillcontinuetotemperpurchasingpower.
2025growthfromtheOctoberoutlookis1.8%.
FortheEuroarea,GDPgrowthisestimatedintheJanuaryoutlookat3.5%for2022beforeplummetingtojust0.7%in2023andthenrecoveringto1.6%in2024.Thelatestforecastshowsasharp
downwardrevisionfromtheAprilestimateof2.3%for2023.Theweakeroutlooklargelyreflectsthespillovereffectsfromthewarin
UkraineandratehikesfromtheEuropeanCentralBank,whicharepartiallyoffsetbylowerwholesaleenergypricesandsupportfromenergypricecontrols.For2025,agrowthof1.9%wasforecastintheOctoberoutlook.
Underpressurefromitszero-Covidpolicy,China’seconomyslowedfromthepre-pandemicaveragegrowthof6.7%between2015-2019to3%in2022.However,thecountry’ssuddeneasingofitsstringentpandemicrestrictionspromptedanupwardrevisionto5.2%for
2023,upthreepercentagepointsfromtheOctoberprojectionsbutsimilartoits5.1%estimateinApril.Growthisforecasttoslowto4.5%in2024.TheOctoberforecastestimatedgrowthof4.6%for2025.
TheGDPgrowthforIndiaisestimatedat6.8%for2022.The
outlookwasreviseddownwardinJanuaryto6.1%from6.9%for
2023,largelyduetosloweconomicgrowthinitstradingpartner
countries.GDPgrowthfor2024wasunchangedat6.8%.The2025forecastfromthepreviousOctoberoutlookis6.8%.
Sub-SaharanAfrica’sGDPgrowthisestimatedtoeasefrom4.7%in2021to3.8%in2022,duetohigherinflationandslower-than-
expectedprogressonpovertyreduction.However,economicgrowthwillspeedupfrom3.8%in2023toabove4%in2024and2025.
TheIMFexpectsLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean’sGDPtogrowby3.9%in2022,1.8%in2023and2.1%in2024.Octoberforecastfor2025was2.5%.
ElectricityMarketReport2023
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ThewarinUkraine,energycrisisandpersistentinflationsuppresstheeconomicoutlook
RealGDP,annualchange
9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%
Grossdomesticproductgrowthassumptionsbycountryandregion,2022-2025
2022
2023
2024
2025
World
2022
2023
2024
2025
UnitedStates
2022
2023
2024
2025
Euroarea
2022
2023
2024
2025
UnitedKingd
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