2024年非洲投资指南（英）-15正式版

WHERETOINVEST

INAFRICA

2024

ALEADINGAFRICANCORPORATEANDINVESTMENTBANK

CONTENTS

FOREWORD3

WHYAFRICA?5

AMODELFORAFRICA11

WHERETOINVESTINAFRICA14

INVESTABLEMARKETSSEENFROM30,000FEETABOVE20

ARCHETYPES26

COUNTRYSNAPSHOTS41

THEAFRICANCONTINENTALFREETRADEAREA135

SUSTAINABILITYINAFRICA139

CONCLUSION145

APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY146

REFERENCES153

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

WHYAFRICA?

FOREWORD

AMODEL

FORAFRICA

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

AfricaisnavigatingsignificantturbulenceandEconomically,globalinflationhasprovedmoreperformanceandpotential,marketaccessibilityand

INVESTABLE

MARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

transformationsfrommultiplefronts.Geopolitically,persistentthaninitiallythought,forcingmajorcentralinnovation,economicstabilityandinvestmentclimate,

therearetwomajorwarsthataredrivingtheworldbankstomaintainpolicyratesathighlevelsforlongeraswellasinsocialandhumandevelopment–allof

ARCHETYPES

economiesintothreeaxes–UnitedStates,Chinaand

thenon-alignedandpersistenttensionsbetweenthe

thananticipatedandkeepingthecostoffundingfor

manyAfricancountrieselevated.

whicharefactorsthathavebeenproventodetermine

acountry’sprogressandthereforeits

COUNTRY

SNAPSHOTS

USandChinaaredisruptingglobalvaluechains.

ThewarbetweenRussiaandUkraine–thefirst

Amidthesecrosscurrents,ZambiaandGhanawere

forcedtoundergopainfuldebtrestructuringprocesses

investmentpotential.

Thesearethefactorsthatthisreport,theRMBWhere

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

majorwarinEuropeinmanyyears–hasfuelledthe

deglobalisationwhichgainedmomentumfromthe

thatresultedincurrencydevaluations.Egyptand

Nigeria,ontheotherhand,hadpolicy-drivencurrency

toInvestinAfrica(WTIIA),amalgamatesusingasimple

yetrobustmethodologytoconsistentlyproduceone

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

Trumpadministration’stradetaxesonChinaandwasdevaluationsduetomisalignmentsintheirbalanceofmetricthatgivesaninvestorasenseofhoweachof

CONCLUSION

laterreinforcedbytheglobalpolicyresponsetothepayments.Inthisageofsocialmediadisinformation,athe31countriesweanalysed,jointlyaccountingfor92%

COVID-19pandemic.Theotherwar,betweenHamas

andIsrael,isalsoaddingtoglobaldivisionsonmoraland

headlinethatreads“Africaisnolongerinvestible.”

ofAfrica’sGDP,stacksup.Themethodologyusedstill

allowstheinvestortouncovertheunderlyingdrivers

APPENDIX:

METHODOLOGY

humanitariangroundsbutinlessdisruptivewaystoButAfricaisnotacountry.Itisacomplexanddiverseofacountry’sperformancethatinformitsranking.The

REFERENCES

tradesofar.continentof54countriesthatdifferineconomicWTIIAreportprovidesinsightsofwherepolicycanbe

3

usedtochangecountries’futureperformancesand

thereforetheirrelativeinvestmentattractiveness.

processtoaugmentduediligencewhendetermining

wheretodeploycapitalforbetterrisk-adjustedreturns

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

andimpactwithinthediversecountriesofAfrica.For

WHYAFRICA?

Itisdifficult,ifnotimpossible,toperfectlycharacterise

acountry’sinvestmentpotentialusingoneall-

policymakers,wehopethisreportisaresourcetohelp

identifyareaswherepolicycanbeimprovedto

AMODEL

FORAFRICA

encompassingindicatorduetothemanyfactorsthatattractinvestments.

driveinvestmentattractiveness.Therefore,thereisa

needtoconstantlyupdatemethodologiesfromthose

Weinviteyoutopartnerwithusinthedevelopment

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

thatarebasedonfewerdimensionsofacountry’s

structuretothosethathavemoreencompassing

dimensionsthatcaptureacountry’scomplexityina

ofAfrica,aplacewecallhome,andherpeopleunited

indiversity.

INVESTABLE

MARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

betterway.IsaahMhlanga

ChiefEconomist,RMB

ARCHETYPES

Thisisexactlywhatthe2024WTIIAreportdoes.

TheavailabilityofnewdatasourcesformanyAfrican

COUNTRY

SNAPSHOTS

countrieshasenabledandnecessitatedanevolution

fromthemethodologywehaveusedsincethe

inceptionoftheWTIIAreportin2011.Ourupdated

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

methodologyisintuitiveyetrobustandstillmaintains

transparencybyusingpubliclyavailabledata.

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

CONCLUSIONThisreportdoesnotprovideadefinitiveconsideration

indecidingWheretoInvestinAfrica.Wehopethat

investorswilluseitasavaluablepartofanyinvestment

APPENDIX:

METHODOLOGY

REFERENCES

4

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

WHYAFRICA?

WHYAFRICA?

AMODEL

FORAFRICA

AlthoughtheexactnumberofcountriesacrosstheAfrican

continentiscontested–mostobserversagreethatthecontinent

ismadeupof54countries–thereisbroadconsensusthatthe

continentboastsaplethoraofcultures,languages,ethnicities,

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

INVESTABLE

MARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

religions,andbeyond.

ARCHETYPES

Africarangesfromvastcopperbeltsandfertile,pandemicmanyAfricangovernmentshadinsufficient

COUNTRY

SNAPSHOTS

agriculture-basedeconomiestotechnologyhubs

andtouristdestinations.Itsbuiltenvironmentextends

fromportcitiesandruralvillagestobuzzing

andunreliabledataforaccuratepublichealth

decision-making.

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

cosmopolitanmetropolises.

InMayof2020,atimewhentheCOVID-19viruswas

wellestablishedaroundtheglobe,Nigeriareported

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

Africaisdiverseandnuanced,andfailingtojust103deathsfromCOVID-19and3,145confirmed

CONCLUSION

appreciateitsfulldepthandbreadthcanleadto

misunderstandingsandunderestimations.Italsocan

infections.However,inacountrywithapopulationof

218million,fewerthan22,000peoplehadbeentested,

APPENDIX:

METHODOLOGY

resultinperceptionsthatfailtomapontoreality.

PartofthemisjudgementofAfrica’svastnessand

complexityisaconsequenceofpoordataand

suggestingatremendousundercountingoftheimpact

ofthevirus.1

REFERENCES

statisticalcapacity.Therearemajordatagaps.ThiswasInvestors,executives,capitalallocators,management

particularlyevident,forexample,duringtheCOVID-19teams,scholars,andentrepreneursfindsimilar

5

InMayof2020,atimewhen

theCOVID-19viruswaswell

establishedaroundtheglobe,

Nigeriareportedjust103

deathsfromCOVID-19and

3,145confirmedinfections.

However,inacountrywith

apopulationof218million,

fewerthan22,000people

challengeswhenevaluatingmarketsinAfrica.

Economiesonthecontinenttendtobepoorly

understoodandunderrepresentedindatabases.

Historically,a“lackofdatahasalsomeantthatAfrica

wasleftoutofacademicdebatesaboutpatternsof

long-rungrowth.”2

Thetaskofclosingthisgapindata–and,by

implication,knowledge–ismadedifficultbymultiple

ongoingchallenges.Africa’srelativelylargeinformal

economymakesdatacollectionaverydifferenttask

thanstatisticiansexperienceinhighlydeveloped

economies.Theinformaleconomy“isbydefinition

providesgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)datain

currentandconstantpricesfor47sub-Saharan

countriesforeachyearfrom1991to2004,theUnited

NationsStatisticalOfficehad,asofmid-2006,actually

receiveddataforonlyjustunderhalfofthese1,410

observationsandhad,infact,receivednoconstant

pricedatawhatsoeveronanyyearfor15ofthe

countriesforwhichthecomplete1991-2004online

timeseriesarepublished.”7

However,inahighlyglobalisedandincreasingly

digitisedworld,wehavebetterdatacoveragethan

everbefore.Withlargerportionsofthecontinent

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

WHYAFRICA?

AMODEL

FORAFRICA

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

INVESTABLE

MARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

ARCHETYPES

hadbeentested,suggestinga

tremendousundercountingof

theimpactofthevirus.

unrecorded,sothedataaddedtonationalaccountsis

verymalleable.”3

Thecontinent’sbusinessesarealsomorelikelytobe

informal4thancontemporariesinadvancednations.

coveredbymorecomprehensiveandreliabledata

eachyear,itisimportantthatweharnessthis

informationtobuildclearerpicturesofAfrica’s

investmentlandscape.

COUNTRY

SNAPSHOTS

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

In2018,globalconsultingfirmMcKinsey&Co.could

tallyjust338companiesinAfricawithrevenuesof

ForthisissueoftheRMBWheretoInvestinAfrica

report,wehavebuiltascorecardfor31countries

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

US$1.0bnperyear.5Atthesametime,itisestimateddrawingon20differentmetricsmadeupofrich

CONCLUSION

thatthereareasmanyas80millionmid-small-and-dataspanningfourmeasurementpillars.Thedata

micro-sizedenterprises(MSMEs).Relativelyhighlevels

ofcorruption6andmultipleconflictzonesaddtothe

coverseverythingfromGDPpercapitatohuman

developmentdrawingonpubliclyavailabledatasets

APPENDIX:

METHODOLOGY

difficultyofreliabledata.fromglobalinstitutions,includingtheWorldBank,

REFERENCES

theIMF,theAfricanDevelopmentBank,theUnited

AnexampleofthepaucityofdataforAfrica.“AlthoughNations,andtheInternationalLabourOrganisation.

theonlineUnitedNationsNationalAccountsdatabase

6

FIGURE1

NumberofindicatorsavailablefromtheWorldBank

Themodel-explainedindetailinthenextchapter-

recordshowthereports’authorshaveaggregated

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

thedatatoestablishextensivecoveragefor31

WHYAFRICA?

G20SouthAfricaAfricaNotG2OorAfrica

Africanmarketsthatcollectivelyrepresent92%ofthe

continent’seconomicactivity(measuredbyGDP),and

AMODEL

FORAFRICA

12000

10000

2000

COL

IDN

KAZZAF

MEX

MDA

TUR

ARMHUEPERPAK

CAIAOEGUY

KEN

MACPERDOM

OUHRENPAYUKHCHL

MVR

BRA

SENLGANGA

NAMOET

SUO

OWNDOSMARUS

NHUBOLROUPAK

TMB

TZAMEETRH

LSOIBRYPO

SLEAGO

NEA

ZMB

OUALTIUBNUUNPOL

SWZNHU

PVR

HOU

TGO

GMB

KAM

TCDARG

JAUIOK

GMBMOUBZA

VNM

BIH

COSDOUUSB

MARIRQ

GIN

COG

BUMRMR

CZE

MYS

YEM

BWA

PSE

BLZBDMIDVFDYOODEU

AGO

COMCAFPAPSUE

APG

KOR

MNEBUB

GBRNLDESR

GBR

MUHGPTUIGSDN

SVN

DZSAUR

FINNK

PRA

IBL

STPDJBITN

CYPBEL

AUSSAN

TLS

LUXNZLIVSRENEGPIANJPN

XLGUY

EU

GCNPBVSSD

LBN

ISL

SUR

TTOSAU

TONVUT

SLBLCAQATHKGARE

SYC

KIRWSM

BRB

KWT

BTHKPM

SOM

MHL

BHS

ERI

DMA

FSMCMN

BRN

LBY

GNOPRI

VAC

PLW

ATG

GRD

VCT

KNA

SMRABW

GYM

BMU

NRU

TCA

SXMCUW

IND

USCAHN

morethanonebillionpeople(threequartersofthe

continent’spopulation).

APOTENTIALDEMOGRAPHICDIVIDEND

Multiplepotenttrendscapturetheimportanceof

expandingdataandanalysistoallAfricanmarkets.

Perhapsthemostcompellingcaseismadethrough

thelensofdemography.

Thegradual,largelyforecastablelong-termchanges

inpopulationsbysize,locationandagegoalong

waytohelpingusmapthefuture.InAfrica’scase,

demographychartsacoursethatdemandseconomic

understandingandpolicyaction.

Thecontinent’spopulationsizeandtrajectoryshould

openanydiscussionondemographyandeconomic

future.In1900,Africawashometoapproximately

140millionpeopleor9%oftheglobe’spopulation.

Today,thatnumberhasvaultedto1.4billionor18%

oftheglobaltotal.Thisgrowthtrendisalsosetto8

INVESTABLE

MARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

ARCHETYPES

8000

COUNTRY

SNAPSHOTS

6000

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

4000

CONCLUSION

APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY

REFERENCES

110100100010000remainelevatedrelativetotheworldaverage,driven0

GDP,PPP(CurrentInternationalUS$Billions)

Source:CoderaAnalytics(2024)

7

FIGURE2

ShareofAfrica’spopulationgrowthbyagebracket(billionsofpeople)

byrelativelyhighbirthrates,fallingratesofinfant

mortality,andrisinglifeexpectancy.

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

WHYAFRICA?

age:0-24age:25-64age:65+

Inthecontextofdecliningfertilityratesinhigh-income

countriesworldwide9,theUnitedNationsprojects

thatby2050,Africa’spopulationwillreachcloseto2.5

AMODEL

FORAFRICA

2

billion.10Thiswouldmeanthataquarteroftheworld’s

populationwillresideinAfrica.

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

Theagedistributionofthispopulationaddstothe

analysis.Thisisayoungpopulation,andtheproportion

INVESTABLE

MARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

1.5

ofyoungerpeoplewillincreaseoverthenextfew

decades.AsFigure2shows,theproportionofpeople

ARCHETYPES

1

ofworkingagewillgrowsizeablyoverthenext

quarterofacentury.11

COUNTRY

SNAPSHOTS

Thisagedistributionstandsinstarkcontrastto

otherpartsoftheworld.ConsiderEurope,where

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

thepopulationisagingquickly.Figure3capturesthis

graphicallywithapopulationpyramid.Africa’slow

0.5

“centreofgravity”translates,ineconomicterms,intoa

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

CONCLUSION

large,youngpopulationreadytoentertheworkforce.

0

Thishastremendouspositiveeconomicprospectsif

thereareenoughemploymentopportunitiesopenfor

APPENDIX:

METHODOLOGY

thisworkforce.

REFERENCES

19501960197019801990200020102020202320402050

Europe’sagedistributionpyramid,however,

demonstratesadecliningnumberofpeopleentering

Source:Ambrosetti(2022)usingUNDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsdata(estimationsbeyond2022).

8

FIGURE3

PopulationpyramidforAfrica(left)andEurope(right)

theirproductiveyearsandagrowingnumber

ofpeoplemovingintoretirement.Thisplacesan

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

increasingfinancialburdenontheshrinkingpoolof

WHYAFRICA?

WhileAfrica

hasahightotal

fertilityrateof4.2,

theaveragelife

expectancyis

63years.

Europe’stotal

fertilityrateis

amere1.5while

theaveragelife

expectancyis

80years.

100

80

60

4040

AFRICAEUROPE

100

80

60

TheUnitedNations

definesthetotal

fertilityrateasthe

averagenumberof

childrenthatwould

beborntoawoman

overherlifetimeifshe

weretoexperience

thecurrentage-

specificfertilityrates

throughoutherlife.

youngerpeopleinEurope,andsimilarlyformostother

developedmarkets.

Thusfar,wehavefocusedonthepotentialfora

demographicdividend.Theconverseisalsopossible.

Whileagrowing,healthy,productiveyouthsector

isaneconomicboon,thisisnotguaranteed.Where

societyfailstoprovideyoungpeoplewithanurturing

safecommunities,educationalandemployment

opportunities,andmoreareallrequiredtoensure

AMODEL

FORAFRICA

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

INVESTABLE

MARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

COUNTRY

SNAPSHOTS

environment,weriskfosteringadisaffectedyouth

contingent.Stronginstitutions,stablepolicies,

ARCHETYPES

2020

Medianage:

43-44years

thecontinentexperiencesademographicdividend.

NATURALRESOURCESENDOWMENT

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

Medianage:

18-19years

0

Africa’s30millionsquarekilometres12isalsohometo

vastmineralandnaturalresources.Approximately30%

oftheglobe’scriticalmineralreservesareinAfrica.13

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

CONCLUSION

12%6%0%6%12%

Nearlytwothirdsoftheglobe’sremaininguncultivated

arablelandisalsoonthecontinent.14Yet,Africaisanet

APPENDIX:

METHODOLOGY

importeroffood.15

REFERENCES

%ofpopulation

WecanevenseethescaleofAfrica’spotentialifweSource:UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs

shiftourgazeoffits30,500km16coastline.

9

“Threeofthesixlargemarineecosystems(LMEs)of

AfricarankwithinthefirstfourmostproductiveLMEs

Mineralrichescanresultinexploitation,corruption

anddivision.Butthisneednotbethecase.Norway’s

accesstobasicsocialservices,includinghealthcare,

education,tradehubsandeconomicopportunities.”21

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

intheworld,withtheCanaryCurrent,theBenguelasovereignwealthfund,capitalisedwithearningsSimilarly,despiteanumberoffamous,largeand

WHYAFRICA?

CurrentandtheSomaliCoastalCurrentranking

second,thirdandfourthglobally.”17

fromoilandgas,isperhapstheleadingaspirational

example,wherethefund’sreservesequateto

navigableriversonthecontinent,“theabsenceof

navigableriversintothehinterlandlimitstheuseof

AMODEL

FORAFRICA

US$290,000percitizen.suchamodeoftransport”.22

Thisnaturalresourceendowmenttakesonanew,

elevatedimportanceinaneraofelectricvehicles

Norway’sprovenreservesof8.1billionbarrelsareAdditionally,astheWilsonCentreputsit,“while

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

andrenewableenergy.Madagascar,Mozambique

andTanzaniaaccountformorethanone-fifthofthe

world’sgraphitereserves.18Thisisacriticalingredient

atouchaheadofAngola’sprovenreservesof7.8

billionbarrels.Thedifferenceinoutcomesiswell

documented–andglaring.Thisalsopointstothe

NorthAfricahasalmostreacheduniversalaccessto

electricityandwaterservices,insub-SaharanAfrica,

onlyabout45%ofthepopulationhaveaccessto

INVESTABLE

MARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

forlithium-ionbatteriesthatareusedinelectricincredibleprospectsembeddedintheseresources.reliableelectricityandaround60%ofthepopulation

vehiclesandotherenergystoragesystems.haveaccesstowaterservice.Thismeanssome600

ARCHETYPES

Mostoftheworld’scobalt,withasimilarusageprofile

INFRASTRUCTUREOBSTACLESANDOPPORTUNITIESmillionpeopledonothaveaccesstoelectricity.”23

COUNTRY

SNAPSHOTS

tographite,isminedinAfrica,withtheDemocratic

RepublicoftheCongo(DRC)aloneaccountingfor70%

oftheworld’ssupply.19

Perhapsthemostpressingneedandinteresting

opportunityliesinAfrica’svoluminousinfrastructure

deficit.Humanresources,landanddepositsare

Inthisvein,arecentcountputthenumberofdams

insub-SaharanAfricaatatotalof980largedams.

SouthAfricaishometo589ofthesedams.Bycontrast,

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

MuchlikethecasewithAfrica’shumanresources,the

toooftenheldbackbyalackofthenecessary

infrastructuretofullyunleashtheir

thereareover15,000damsinCanadaalone.Some

1,157arecategorisedaslargedamsasdefinedbythe

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

mineraladvantagecomeswithacaveat.Africa,andproductivepotential.InternationalCommissiononLargeDams(ICOLD).

CONCLUSION

otherresource-richregions,hassufferedfromtheThereinliestheobstacleandtheopportunity.Africahas

so-called“resourcecurse”.Despitethemanybenefits

ofhavingvaluableresourcesunderone’sfeet,there

Considerthatalthoughroadsaretheprimarymodeof

transport,accountingfor80%ofgoodsand90%of

anestimatedannualinfrastructureinvestmentgapof

US$100bn.24Thisisapproximatelytheannualspendof

APPENDIX:

METHODOLOGY

isatragictendencytonotmerelyfailtobenefitfrompassengertraffic,justover40%ofruralAfricanshaveGermany,France,Italy,SpainandPortugalcombinedand

REFERENCES

these,buttosufferbecauseofthem.accesstoanall-seasonroad.20And“just53%ofroadsalmostasmuchastheUS’sUS$110bnspendperyear.25

onthecontinentarepaved,isolatingpeoplefrom

10

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

WHYAFRICA?

AMODELFORAFRICA

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

INVESTABLEMARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

ARCHETYPES

COUNTRYSNAPSHOTS

AMODELFORAFRICA

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

CONCLUSION

“Allmodelsarewrong,butsomeareuseful”.Thistruismofstatistician

GeorgeBoxisasoundcaveatwhenintroducinganymodel-especiallyso

withalong-runmodelofsomethingascomplexasthefutureofmultiple

inter-relatedcountriesspreadacrosstheworld’ssecondlargestcontinent.

APPENDIX:

METHODOLOGY

REFERENCES

11

FOUNDATIONS

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

This2024editionoftheRMBWheretoInvest1.Economicactivityscore–incorporatingmarket

WHYAFRICA?

inAfricareportexpandsonprioreditions.Thesizescore,growthscoreandafiscalscorewitha

previousedition,the2021version,wasbuiltduringweightedaggregationofstandardisedvariables.

theglobalcrisisthatwasCOVID-19.Sodominantwas

AMODEL

FORAFRICA

thatforceatthetimethatweopenedthatreport

asfollows:“2020heldgreatpromise.Positive

2.Operatingenvironmentscore–incorporating

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

globalprospectsatthebeginningoftheyear

werecapturedincheerfulbusinessandfinancial

marketsentiment.However,thatpositivityquickly

dissipatedasSARS-CoV-2sweptacrosstheglobe.”

theGlobalCompetitivenessIndex,Corruption

PerceptionsIndexandEconomicFreedomindex.

INVESTABLE

MARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

Thesetwopillarsrepresentedourviewthatthe

ARCHETYPES

The2021editionusedalinearaggregationof

weightedvariablestoconstructaninvestment

decisiontoinvestistypicallybasedontwokey

considerations:economicperformance/activity

COUNTRY

SNAPSHOTS

attractivenessindex.Wedividedtheattractiveness

scoreintotwopillars.Thesewere:

andthenatureofthebusinessenvironment.

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

WherewesuggestaparticularAfricancountryisstructurally

CONCLUSION

assembledforanestimateeconomicgrowthrateover

thenextdecade,nothingstopsthepeopleandleadership

APPENDIX:

METHODOLOGY

REFERENCES

ofthatnationfromalteringthatcourse.

12

FIGURE4

2021RMBWheretoInvestinAfricaIndexstructure

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

WHYAFRICA?

Marketsizescore

Standardisedandrescaledtoascoreoutof10(45%)

AMODEL

FORAFRICA

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

Growthscore

Standardisedandrescaledtoascoreoutof10(30%)

INVESTABLE

MARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

ARCHETYPES

Fiscalscore

Standardisedandrescaledtoascoreoutof10(25%)

COUNTRY

SNAPSHOTS

GlobalCompetitivenessIndex

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

Standardisedandrescaledtoascoreoutof10(25%)

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

CONCLUSIONGlobalPercetptionsIndex

Standardisedandrescaledtoascoreoutof10(33.3%)

APPENDIX:

METHODOLOGY

REFERENCES

GlobalFreedomIndex

Standardisedandrescaledtoascoreoutof10(33.3%)

Source:RMB(2021)

13

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

WHYAFRICA?

AMODELFORAFRICA

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

WHERETO

INVESTINAFRICA

INVESTABLE

MARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

ARCHETYPES

COUNTRY

SNAPSHOTS

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

The2024RMBWheretoInvestinAfricareportisbasedontheinputof

experiencedprofessionalsand,inpart,onworkpublishedinpeer-reviewed

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

journalstoexpandonourearliermodel.Thequantitativemodelunderlyingthis

CONCLUSION

reportstandsontheshouldersoftheworkdoneonprioreditions.Inthisiteration,

weexpandourrangeofinputdata,extendthegranularity,andconstructarobust

tooltohelpguideinvestmentdecisionsinacomplex,post-COVID-19world.

APPENDIX:

METHODOLOGY

REFERENCES

14

Atafundamentallevel,werefertosomeofthework

byTowhidulIslam,NigelMeade,andAshishSood.Their

Numerically,“wefindthefollowingrelativeimportance:

macroeconomicattractiveness,42.7%;market

Eachmetricisweighted,whichtranslatesintoaweight

foreachpillar.Theseweightsforeachmetric,andthe

EXECUTIVE

FOREWORD

2022paper26publishedintheJournalofInternationalconcentration,14.4%;socialheterogeneity,17.1%;andconsequentweightsforeachpillarareshownbelow.

WHYAFRICA?

Marketingisacrystallisationofdecadesofliteratureon

internationalbusinessandmarketing.

populationdensity,18%.”

Thisallrepresentstheassemblyofnearly38,000data

pointsintoasinglemodel.

AMODEL

FORAFRICA

Inshort,ifwechooseonemarkerthatbest

Islametal.drawondatafor28internationaloperators,

spanning79countriestoevaluatetheexplanatory

forecastssuccessformarketentry,macroeconomic

attractivenessistwiceasimportantasthenextbest

Evenmoreimportantisthefactthatwehavethe

capacitytoaltertherealitythismodelmaps.Where

WHERETO

INVESTIN

AFRICA

powerofthefourwell-establisheddriversofmarket

entrytiming.

scoringclassifier.Onewilldowelltotakethis

intoconsideration.

wesuggestaparticularAfricancountryisstructurally

assembledforanestimateeconomicgrowthrate

overthenextdecade,nothingstopsthepeopleand

INVESTABLE

MARKETSSEEN

FROM30,000

FEETABOVE

ThereviewbyIslametal.confirmsthatthedriversInthecurrenteditionoftheRMBWheretoInvestinleadershipofthatnationfromalteringthatcourse.

ofthisdecisionarefourfold:macroeconomicAfricareportwemaintainthattheinvestmentdecision

ARCHETYPES

attractiveness,marketconcentration,social

heterogeneity,andpopulationdensity.Thisclosely

needstobeviewedthroughbothaneconomic

performancelensandanoperatingenvironmentlens.

Infact,thatisthepurposeofthiswork.Thismodelis

notdesignedtotellthefuture.Onthecontrary,the

COUNTRY

SNAPSHOTS

reflectsthefoundationsofourearliereditionsof

themodel,althoughthedescriptorsestablish

greatergranularity.

Thus,buildingonourpreviouswork,inthisupdated

editionwepackagethisdataasfollows:

frameworkisconstructedtogainaviewofthelikely

future,andtherebypointtofactorsthatwecanchange

inordertooutperformthisscenario.Thistoolunearths

THEAFRICAN

CONTINENTAL

FREETRADEAREA

Amongotherimportantfindingstheauthors

1.Economicperformanceandpotential

2.Marketaccessibilityandinnovation

structuraldriversofsustained,meaningfulmovements

ofeconomickeystones,avoidinganyattempttomapor

SUSTAINABILITY

INAFRICA

concludethat“macroeconomicattractiveness[is]the3.Economicstabilityandinvestmentclimatepredictshort-termorcyclicalmovements.

CONCLUSION

predominantclassifier”.Morespecifically,Islametal.test4.Socialandhumandevelopment

therelativeimportanceofeachofthesedrivers,tofind

onedominantvariable.Intheirwords,“wefoundthat

Thefourpillarsareconstructedfromatotalof20

Toachievethis,weidentifytheengineeredand

entrenchedmetricsthatwilldrivelong-runprospects

APPENDIX:

METHODOLOGY

macroeconomicattractivenesswastwiceasimportantmetrics,eachcomprisingamulti-yeardatabaseofandnotfickle,near-termgyrations.

REFERENCES

asanyoftheotherdrivers”.robustfiguresdrawnfrompre-eminentinstitutions.

15

Thesystematicaggregationofthisinformationis

designedtoenablethebusinessperson,investor,or

policymakertoscanimportantmetricsandrapidly

2GDPperCapita5.0%

comparedifferentmarkets