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23August2024|11:31AMEDT
Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse:InvestorsAsking:WhatAretheBiggestDebatesinNaturalResources?
ThisweekinthePulse,weaskoursenioranalystteamtoreflectonthekeydebate
NeilMehta
+1(212)357-4042|neil.mehta@
intheirrespectivesector.InNaturalResourcesbroadly,weremainfocusedonthe
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
debatesaround1)thenaturalgasmacro,2)mid-cycleoilprice,3)datacenterdriven
BrianLee,CFA
+1(917)343-3110|brian.k.lee@
powerdemand,and4)implicationsoftheUSpresidentialelection.InMidstream,
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
specifically,theteamdiscussesthepotentialfortheshareperformancegap
JohnMackay
+1(212)357-5379|john.mackay@
betweenC-corpsandMLPstocloseandhighlightsarelativepreferencefor
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
gas-focusedC-corps.InUtilities,theteamnotesconversationsaroundtheimpactof
CarlyDavenport
+1(212)357-1914|
datacentersonpowerdemandandreiteratesaconstructiveviewonstockswhere
carly.davenport@
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
loadgrowthisalreadymaterializing.InEnergyServices,theteamreflectsonthe
AtiModak
debatearounda2025USlandactivityrecoveryandhighlightsHALasahigh-qualitymeansofgainingNorthAmericaexposure.InMajorsandRefiners,theteam
+1(212)902-9365|ati.modak@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
discussesthedebatearoundourmid-cycle$80/bBrentviewandreiteratesbullish
viewonCanadianoils.InCleanTechnology,theteamspeakstotheupcoming
electionandhighlightsdomesticmanufacturerswherethereisinsulationfrom
impactstotariffs.Lastly,inE&Ps,theteamdiscussesthedebatearoundthenatural
gasmacroandhighlightsstockswithlowcostassetsandstrongexecution.
MajorsandRefiners:
Whatisthebiggestdebateinyoursectorheadingintoyear-end?Whatisyourviewandhowshouldinvestorspositionforit?
Thekeydebateininvestorconversationsisaroundthemid-cycleoilprice.We
continuetouse$80/bBrentconsistentwiththelevelthatwebelievewillgrowUSproduction,balanceOPECbudgetsandmeetthemarginalunitofdemand.
_
Increasinglyininvestorconversations,thereisaviewweneedtoshiftthislowertoreflectgrowingnon-OPECsupplybutpotentiallystructuralweaknessinChina
demand.WebelievethattheOPECresponsewillbeimportantintheFall,anddoseeconsumptionstrengthinIndia,MiddleEastandthesurprisingresilienceof
EuropeaspartiallyoffsettingChina.Therefore,wemaintainour$80/boilviewfor
2025andbeyondforBrent.Thestockimplicationofthisviewistoownhighqualityproducersthatshoulddowelliftheoilpriceislower,butthriveinan$80/bBrent
environment.OurbullishcallonCanadianoilsrepresentsthis,includingBuy-ratedSuncor,CanadianNaturalandCenovus.
Midstream:
GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthis
report.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto
/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.
GoldmanSachs
Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse
Whatisthebiggestdebateinyoursectorheadingintoyear-end?Whatisyourviewandhowshouldinvestorspositionforit?
TheoutperformanceofthemidstreamC-corpsovertheMLPs(AMNA+18%vs.AMZ+10%YTD)continuestobeamajorfocusforthesector,withanincreasingdebateoverthepotentialforthatgaptoclose.Thelattergroupcouldbehelpedastheupcoming
electionputsafocusontaxrates–MLPsdonotpayfederalincometaxes–particularlyastheC-corpsareincreasinglygettingclosertohavinghighercashtaxpaymentsdue(2026+formostofthelarger-caps).Thatsaid,wecontinuetoseemorefundamental
tailwindsfornaturalgasdemandgrowth(whichtheC-corpsaremoreleveredto)vs.
liquidstrendsthataremoremixed(wheretheMLPsaremoreexposed),particularlyastheoilpriceoutlookisincreasinglyuncertain.Thus,welookforthegas-focusedC-corpmidstreamnamestolikelycontinuetooutperform,andwouldlooktoKMIamongthelarge-capsandKGSamongthesmall-capsastwointerestingopportunitiesfor2H24.
Utilities:
Whatisthebiggestdebateinyoursectorheadingintoyear-end?Whatisyourviewandhowshouldinvestorspositionforit?
Datacenterdrivenpowerdemandremainsthekeythematicdominatingconversationsinpower/utilities.Whilethereislessdebatearoundifdatacentersare/willdrivemore
powerdemand,thereismoredebatearoundwhentheinflectionwillplayoutandwhen
itwillactuallyimpactcapitalinvestmentandearnings.Investorsarelookingto3Q
resultsseason/EEItogetearlyupdatesfromsomecompaniesontheseviews,andthenmorebroadly4Qearningsasmostutilitiesupdatetheirfiveyearcapitalplansandload
growthforecasts.Ultimately,werecommendinvestorspositionwhereweareseeing
loadgrowthalreadymaterializeandimpactinginvestmentplans,forcompanieslikeSO(17%existingdatacenterloadgrowthin2Q,approvalstobuildnewgastosupportloadgrowth),AEP(12.4%commercialloadgrowthin2Q),andNEE(added860MWsof
_
backlogrelatedtopoweringGoogle’sdatacentersin2Q),inadditiontoXEL,whereweexpectthecompanytoraiseitscapitalplanandloadgrowthforecastonthe3Qcall.
CleanTechnology:
Whatisthebiggestdebateinyoursectorheadingintoyear-end?Whatisyourviewandhowshouldinvestorspositionforit?
Thelargestdebateinoursectorheadingintoyear-endiscenteredaroundtheoutcomeoftheUSpresidentialelectionandthepossiblechangestopolicy.Investorshavebeenaskingrecentlywhichstockswouldlikelyfacethelargestimpactregardingchangesto
theIRAaswellastariffs.WeviewthatremovalofIRAincentiveswouldimpactexposednamesnegatively,however,wearebasecasingnochangetotheIRA.Furthermore,weanticipateheadlinerisktobethelargestriskheadingintotheelectionasthemarketis
stilltryingtogaugebothparties’stanceonrenewableenergy.Thatsaid,weviewthe
seculartailwindofpowerdemandgrowthandincreasingpowerpricestobethelargesttailwindtofurtherrenewabledeploymentintheUS.Inaddition,whiletalkontariffs
mightcreatemarketvolatility,webelievetariffswouldlikelybeatailwindtodomesticmanufacturerslikeFSLRastheywouldresultindomesticASPstrendinghigher.Thus,
23August20242
GoldmanSachs
Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse
weviewthatinvestorscouldutilizemarketvolatilitytogainexposuretodomesticmanufacturersasthesecompanieswilllikelybeinsulatedfromimporttariffs.
EnergyServices:
Whatisthebiggestdebateinyoursectorheadingintoyear-end?Whatisyourviewandhowshouldinvestorspositionforit?
ThebiggestdebateinservicesiscenteredaroundNorthAmericaactivityexpectationswithinvestorslookingformanagementcoloraroundapotentialrecoveryinactivity.
MostinvestorswespeaktoexpectarecoveryinUSlandduring2025,butthedebateisspecificallyaroundthemagnitudeoftherecoveryandsubsequentimpacttoservice
pricing.In-focusforinvestors,assuch,hasbeenthegasmarketswithdiscussions
aroundtherequiredpricetoincentivizeincrementalactivity.Whileitisreasonableto
expectrigaddsin2025,webelieveitcouldberelativelymodestanddoesnotimpactservicepricingmeaningfully.Inthefracmarket,weexpecttoseelowerlevelsofwhitespaceonthecalendar,butdonotanticipatealargenumberoffleetsbroughtbackintothemarket.Inthisenvironment,weremainconstructiveonHALwherewebelievethestockoffershigh-qualityexposuretoUSlandandisrelativelydefensiveinthefaceofapotentiallysofterthananticipated2025recovery.
E&Ps:
Whatisthebiggestdebateinyoursectorheadingintoyear-end?Whatisyourviewandhowshouldinvestorspositionforit?
ThefocusforE&Psheadingintoyear-endremainsontheuncertaintyaroundthenaturalgasmacro.Withweakernaturalgasprices,thereisreasonforcautionaroundgas
equities,butwebelieveadditionalproducercurtailmentsandcontinuedproducer
disciplinethroughthewintercouldprovidesupportforpricesthroughtheendofthe
year.Thereisfurtherconcernaroundsupplyinto2025asweseethepotentialforquickrampinproductioncomingonlinefromproducersunwindingDUCanddeferredTIL
_
inventoriesearlynextyear.However,withoutrigadditionsandcapitalinvestment,weareconcernedaboutthesustainabilityofsupplyandhowthatwillcoincidewithLNG
capacityadditions.InadditiontothetimingofLNGbuildout,thechangingdemand
outlookdependsonthemagnitudeofAI/datacenterdemandsourcingfromnaturalgasvsotherpowersources(GSforecastof3.3bcf/dofnaturalgasdemandfromAI/data
centers).Whilesomeinvestorsprefermidstreamstockstogainexposuretothenaturalgastheme,amongE&Ps,wearepositiveonEQTforitslowcostassets,deep
inventory,anduniquepositioningtobenefitfromtheAI/datacenterdemandtheme;andCTRAforitsstrongexecutionfromcapitalefficiencyimprovementsandabilityto
maximizereturnsfrombothcommodityandgeographicdiversity.Forthosemorebullishonnaturalgasprices,CRKcouldbeinfocusgivenitshighbetatonaturalgasprices,butweremaincautiousonthecompany’sleverageandinventoryoutlook.
23August20243
GoldmanSachs
Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse
Editor’sChoiceCharts
Exhibit1:Energy,Utilities&Miningsub-sectorperformanceExhibit2:WebelieveE&Psarereflectingacostofcapitalslightly
Past90days(5/23/2024-8/22/2024)below10%
4-weekrollingavg.oftheimplieddiscountrateforE&Psbasedonfive-yearfuturesandourNAVs
140
130
Indexperformance
120
110
100
90
80
70
23-May
6-Jun20-Jun
XLU
AMLP
Integrateds
XLE
OSX
ICLN
XME
Refiners
XOP
GassyE&Ps
4-Jul18-Jul1-Aug15-Aug
4-weekrollingavg.implieddiscountrate
14%
13%
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Jul-24
6%
Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit3:Crudeoilimpliedvolatilityisstillbelowourmodellingonbothafundamentalandcross-assetbasisfollowingtherecent
jump
_
GSBrentImpliedVolatilityModels(3mATM)
Exhibit4:TheRoadFuelShiftFromOiltoPowerandLNGExplainstheBulkoftheSlowdowninChinaDemandGrowthin2024H1vs.2016-2019
Fundamentalmodelincludes:USGSCurrentActivityIndicator(CAI),Absoluteinventory
deviation,sparecapacity(%globaldemand),S-Dvolatility(EMA),andaGeopoliticalRiskIndex.
Crossassetmodeladds:SPXImpliedVol(6m).ATM=Atthemoney.
Source:ICE,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
23August20244
GoldmanSachsEnergy,Utilities&MiningPulse
SectorinContext
Exhibit5:ValuationsofE&PstocksreflectWTIoilpricesslightlyabovethefive-yearstrip
HistoricalWTIpriceimpliedincoveredE&Psnetassetvalueandforwardoilfutures,$/bbl
WTIoilprice
1-Jan-15
1-Apr-15
1-Jul-15
1-Oct-15
1-Jan-16
1-Apr-16
1-Jul-16
1-Oct-16
1-Jan-17
1-Apr-17
$130$120$110$100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20$10
1-Jul-17
1-Oct-17
1-Jan-18
1-Apr-18
1-Jul-18
1-Oct-18
1-Jan-19
1-Apr-19
1-Jul-19
1-Oct-19
1-Jan-20
1-Apr-20
1-Jul-20
1-Oct-20
1-Jan-21
1-Apr-21
1-Jul-21
1-Oct-21
1-Jan-22
1-Apr-22
1-Jul-22
1-Oct-22
1-Jan-23
1-Apr-23
1-Jul-23
1-Oct-23
1-Jan-24
1-Apr-24
1-Jul-24
$72
ImpliedWTIOilPriceFrontmonth2-yrstrip5-yrstrip
Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
Exhibit6:Gas-focusedE&Psarebroadlyimplying~$3.30/MMBtulong-termgaspricevs.ourmid-cycleviewof$3.50/MMbtu,2024/2025gasfuturesat~$2.30/3.30perMMBtu
HenryHubgaspriceimpliedbyourFCFYield-analysisofcoveredgasproducers,vs.2024HenryHubgasfuturesand5-yearaveragegasfutures
$4.00
$3.80
$3.60
_
HenryHub,$/MMBtu
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$3.32
ImpliedGasPrice@$85Brent
$3.29
ImpliedGasPrice@$75Brent
$2.28
2024futures
$3.30
2025futures
$3.62
2026futures
Source:FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
23August20245
GoldmanSachs
Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse
Exhibit7:Historically,UtilitiestradeataP/EmultiplepremiumtotheS&Pwhenthe10-yearUSTremainsbelow~3%,however,the
relationshipweakensintimesofnegativerealrates
UtilityP/Emultiplepremium/discounttotheS&PindifferentUST10-yearyieldenvironments
Premium/Discount
20%10%
0%(10%)(20%)(30%)(40%)(50%)(60%)
12%13%
9%
16%11%
7%9%
Last5YearsLast20Years
(1%)
(2%)(1%)
(7%)
(21%)
(21%)
(51%)
<1.5%
1.5%-2.0%
2.0%-2.5%
2.5%-3.0%
3.0%-3.5%
3.5%-4.0%
4.0%-4.5%
4.5%-5.0%
>5%
Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch
_
23August20246
GoldmanSachsEnergy,Utilities&MiningPulse
Conversationswearehavingwithinvestors
E&P–NeilMehta
FANG.DiamondbackremainsinfocusforinvestorsgivenFANG’scontinued,strongoperationalandearningsexecutionandthecompany’simprovementsincapital
efficiency,asitoutlinedthatitplanstodrop2rigsand1fraccrew&lowermidpointcapexguidancewhilealsoraisingproductionexpectationsforthefullyear.Asa
pure-playPermianproducer,FANGscreensattractivelyvspeersassomeinvestorsare
lookingtoconcentratetheirE&PexposurearoundPermianassetsgiventhehigh-qualitynatureofthebasin.Inaddition,investorscontinuetogivecredittoFANG’smanagementteamandhaveincreasedconfidenceintheexecutionandoperationsofthecompany
givencontinuedstrongearningsexecutionandpositiveupdatestocapitalefficiencies.OnM&Amoregenerally,investorshavebeenfocusedonthecompany’soutlookgivenFANG’ssmaller,bolt-onacquisitionsannouncedwiththe2Q24earningsrelease.
CRK.InvestorsremaininterestedintheUSnaturalgasmacrooutlookandmore
specificallyhaveinterestinnaturalgasproducerequitieswithhighbetatoaninflectioningasprices.AsNYMEXHenryHubgashasaveraged~$2.10/MMBtuinthepast
month,belowGS3Q24gaspriceexpectationsof$2.65/MMBtu,investorsare
cautiouslyoptimisticforapricinginflectionintheneartermgiventhesupply-side
curtailmentsandonsetofLNGexportfacilitiescomingonlineinthenext12-18months.InvestorsareincreasinglylookingintoCRKgiventhecompany’shighbetatogaspricesgiventhatitisapure-playHaynesvilleproducer,astheHaynesvilleisthemarginal
producerfornaturalgasintheUS.Inaddition,investorsarenotingthatthemajorityshareholderhasincreasedhispositioninCRKby~8.5milsharestoresultin~70%ownershipinthecompanyperFactSetonAugust22,2024.
_
23August20247
GoldmanSachs
Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse
Majors/Refining–NeilMehta
Investordiscussionthisweekwasfocusedontwospecialsituations:Calumetand
Cameco.ForCalumet,investorscontinuetodriveshareshighertoreflectthepotentialupsidefromsustainableaviationfuel(SAF),dependingonaDOEloanguarantee.The
keyareaofpushbackiswhetherthisupsideisreflectedinthepricetarget,andthe
elevatedleverageprofileatthebusiness.WenotethecompanyconversiontoC-Corp
fromMLPhasincreasedgeneralistinterestinthename.ThesecondareaoffocushasbeenonCameco,whereKazakhstanprovidednegativerevisionsto2025production
guidance,providingapositivecatalystforNorthAmericanproducerslikeCameco.Manyinvestorswespoketosawthiseventaspotentiallycreatingmoreurgencyforfuel
buyerstoenterintoinlonger-termcontractsespeciallygivenmoremutedactivitythusfarinto2024.
_
23August20248
GoldmanSachs
Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse
EnergyServices–NeilMehta&AtiModak
WFRD.InvestorsdiscussionsremaincenteredonWeatherfordwithfocusonthestock’spullbackandthecatalystpathfromhere.Headingintotheremainderoftheyear,
investorshaveadditionallybeenfocusedonmanagement’s2H24guidancewhich
impliesmodestlysofter3Qmargins.Withthissaid,bullishinvestorsremainconstructiveonthecompany’spathtoachieving25%+marginsthisyear.Additionally,discussions
havebeenaroundmanagement’scommentaryonhigh-20%marginswithinvestors
debatingwhenitisachievableandthekeydriversoftheincrementalmarginexpansion.
Generally,investorswespeaktohavefocusedonmanagement’scommentaryof50bpsofannualmarginexpansion,andhavequeriedifthereispotentialforupside.More
constructiveinvestorsadditionallybelievethemarginexpansioncoupledwithimprovingfreecashflowconversionshouldsupportincreasedcapitalreturnsoverthecoming
years.
SLB.WhilebullishinvestorswespeaktocontinuetoviewSLBasattractiveatcurrentlevels,thereremainsadebatearoundwhatwillmakethestockworkfromhere.
Conversationshavehighlightedageneralappreciationforcontinuedgrowthinthe
internationalmarkets,butwithanemphasisontheexpectationforgrowthtodeceleratefromhere.Assuch,conversationshavebeenaroundthemagnitudeof2025growthforSLB.InvestorfocusaroundSLBhasadditionallybeenaroundthecompany’sdigital
businesswithinvestorslookingforincrementalcoloronthegrowthandmarginprofile.
_
23August20249
GoldmanSachs
Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse
Utilities-CarlyDavenport
EIX.Followingearningsandstrongerperformance,wehavereceivedmoreinvestor
questionsaroundEdisonInternational.Inourconversations,investorshavestartedto
getmorecomfortableabouttheupsideopportunitiesrelatedtothestory,includingloadgrowthandregulatoryoutcomes.TherewasaconstructiveviewonEIX’scommentaryaroundloadgrowthinitsserviceterritorymaterializingfasterthanexpectedand
potentiallypointtopullingforwardsomecapitalinvestmenttoaccommodatetheload
growth,inadditiontotheotherincrementalcapitalinvestmentopportunitiesthe
companyhashighlightedaroundtransmission,AMI,etc.Investorsalsohavequeriediftherewaspotentialupsidetoearningstotheextentregulatoryoutcomesaroundthe
generalratecaseandwildfirerecoveryfilingscomeinmoreconstructively,whichcouldsupportthebalancesheetandlimitincrementaldebtissuanceneedsifthisscenario
weretooccur.Ontheotherside,manyinvestorsarestilllookingforexecutiontoplayoutbeforebeingwillingtounderwritethesepotentialupsidescenarios.
FE.FirstEnergyhasbeeninfocusinthepastweekorsofollowingthecompany’s
agreementwiththeOhioAG,resolvingtheOOCIC’sinvestigationsurroundingOhio
HouseBill6.Aspartoftheagreement,FEwillpayasettlementof$19.5mntothe
OAG,theamountwhichthecompanydisclosedacontingencyforonthelastearnings
call.WhilethereisstillregulatoryuncertaintyaroundtheOhioratecases,and
Pennsylvaniatoalowerdegree,thathasbeentopofmindforinvestors,thisagreementhasbroadlybeenviewedpositivelyforreducingthetailriskassociatedwiththeHB6
processandthusthestock.InvestorshavebeenmostfocusedontheresolutionoftheHB6processes,ongoingratecases,andpotentialforupsiderelatedtothedata
center/powerdemandopportunityacrossFE’sserviceterritory,inourconversations.
Withthatsaid,therehasalsobeensomeconcernaroundFE’spotentialbillinflation
relatedtothePJMcapacityauctionresults,andthereremainsinvestorfocusonthe
potentialforutilitiesingeneraltoownregulatedgenerationinsomeofthederegulatedstates.
_
23August202410
GoldmanSachs
Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse
MLPs/Pipelines-JohnMackay
MLPsvs.C-corps.InvestorinboundscontinuetofocusontherelativeoutperformanceofthemidstreamC-corpsYTDvs.theMLPs.Whilepartofthishasbeendescribedasfundamentalgiventhegrowthinnaturalgasdemandforecaststhisyear(specifically
fromhigherpowerdemand)andthegenerallymoregas-focusedbusinessmodelsfor
theC-corps,alargedriverhasalsobeenthelevelofinflowsintothesectorfrom
investorsthatcannotgenerallyowntheMLPcorporatestructure.Thus,whiletheremaybesomecatch-upopportunitiesforthelatter,expectationsaregenerallyloweraround
thebroaderMLPgroupbeingabletofullycatch-upgiventhedifferentinvestorbase.
Moreoptimisticinvestors,however,notedthepotentialforhighercorporatetaxrates
aftertheelectiontodriveinflowsbacktoMLPs;weexpectthistoremaintopicalbutnotaprimarydriverofperformance.
Read-throughs.Watchingproducercommentaryatupcomingconferences.Withthefallconferenceseasonapproaching,midstreaminvestorfocusappearslessonspecificcompanyupdates(toneslikelyunchangedfrom2Q24calls)andmoreonmacro
read-throughsfromothersubsectors.Powerdemand/datacenterbuild-outhighlights
shouldstaytopical,butourinboundssuggestagrowingdebatearoundproducer
efficiencygainsandwhatthiscouldmeanforthesupplypicturein2025+.Bothoilandgasproducersgenerallyreportedbettercapitalefficiencieswith2Qresults(thisseemstobereflectedintop-downdataaswell),andinvestorsarethuswatchingformore
commentaryaroundthedurabilityofthesegains,forwardpaceofimprovements,andhowmuchofthosesavingscouldbereinvestedintoincrementalproduction(ornot).Onarelatednotebutmorehigh-level,questionshavealsofocusedonwhetherthishigherproductivitylevelwilldrivelowersensitivitytoswingsinoilprices,andthuspotentiallydisruptwhathasbeenagenerallystableoilsupply-demandbalanceinrecentyears.
_
23August202411
GoldmanSachs
Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse
CleanTechnology–BrianLee,CFA
Thisweek,investorinboundsonWOLFincreasedafterWOLFreportedFY4Q24
earningsonWednesdayafterthebell.WhiletheinitialreactiontotheprintwasnegativeandguidanceforFY1Q25waslargelyflat,underthehoodthereweresomeincremental
positivesthatwillbetakenawayfromthename.Investors’largestconcernswhichstemmedfromliquidityandcapitaluseseemtobesomewhatmutedgiventhe
company’spositivecommentsonmakingfurtherprogresswiththeCHIPSoffice.
Additionally,WOLFreduceditscapexplanforF2025by200mn,reducingsomeoftheexpectedcashburn.Furthermore,investorswerebullishontheaccrualof~$640mnof48Dtaxrebateswhichshouldfurtherhelpoffsetcapexspend.Mohawkcontinuestorampaswellbutinvestorscontinuetobebearishonthecompany’sviewsonI&Eas
demandcontinuestoweakenandwilllikelybeweakforthenextfewquarters.
_
23August202412
GoldmanSachs
Energy,Utilities&MiningPulse
KeyGSEnergyResearchReports
GSEnergyResearchfortheWeek
TalosEnergy(TALO):TakeawaysfromManagementMeeting:M&AandExecutioni
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