2024东南亚汽车电动化展望-三井物产全球战略研究院-2024-08-市场解读

Mitsui&Co.GlobalStrategicStudiesInstituteMonthlyReportApril2024

OUTLOOKONAUTOMOTIVEELECTRIFICATIONINSOUTHEASTASIA—THENEEDTOPREPAREFORESCALATINGEVSUPPLY—

KosukeNishino

IndustrialResearchDept.,IndustrialStudiesDiv.Mitsui&Co.GlobalStrategicStudiesInstitute

SUMMARY

lInSoutheastAsia,theexpansionofEVsalesprimarilybyChinesecompaniesisbeingdrivenbysubsidiesandtaxincentives,particularlyinThailandandIndonesia.

lStrategiesforEVadoptioninThailandandIndonesiafocusonestablishingthecountriesasproductionandexportbasesforEVsandbatteries.WhiletherehasbeenrapidprogressinbuildingproductioncapacitiesbyChinesecompanies,policiestopromotedomesticEVadoptionremainlimited.

lWithintensecompetitionamongChinesecompaniesenteringtheSoutheastAsiamarket—aregionwhereJapanesecompanieshavehistoricallydominated—thereisapossibilitythatEVsmaybeadoptedmorequicklythanexpected.Japanesecompaniesshouldcarefullymonitormarkettrendsandprepareappropriateresponses.

1.EVMARKETTRENDSINSOUTHEASTASIANCOUNTRIES

1-1.Salestrendsbycountry

SalesofEVs1arebeginningtoincreaseacrossSoutheastAsia.InThailand,thenumberofunitssoldin2023exceeded87,000,accountingformorethan10%ofnewvehiclesales(seeFigure1).AlthoughthisfigureislowerthanthatofChinaandEuropeat30%and18%,respectively,itishigherthanthe8%fortheUS.Indonesiafollowedwith17,000units,accountingfor1.7%ofnewvehiclesales.Salesarelimitedinothercountriesintheregion,andthemovetowardelectrificationappearstobecenteredonthesetwocountries.

Source:CompiledbyMGSSIbasedonMarkLinesdata

1Here,“EVs”referstobatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)andplug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs).

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1-2.Marketsharebycompany

Lookingatmarketsharebycompany,BYD,whichbeganfullsalesin2023,hasastrongleadoverothersinThailand.ItisfollowedbyMG(SAICMotor),HozonAuto(Neta),Tesla,andGreatWallMotor(Figure2).Fourofthetopfivecompaniesintermsofsalesvolumein2023wereChinese,withacombinedmarketshareof72%.

InIndonesia,themarketissplitbetweenHyundaiMotorofSouthKoreaandSAIC-GM-WulingAutomobile,bothofwhicharealreadyproducinglocally,withsharesof44%and41%,respectively(Figure3).However,thispowerstructurecouldsoonbetransformed,asBYDandseveralothercompanieshavestartedsalesin2024.

Volvo

M-Benz3,386

Other5,370

BMW 5,013GreatWall

Motor6,746

BYD30,559

MG

13,267

Figure2:CompositionofEVsalesbymanufacturerinThailand

2,229

Tesla8,206

Hozon

Auto

12,777

Totalfor2023:87,553units

490

BMW814

Hyundai7,459

Figure3:CompositionofEVsalesbymanufacturerinIndonesia

ToyotaLexusOther

3351,004

SAIC-GM-Wuling6,968

2023total:17,070units

Source:CompiledbyMGSSIbasedonMarkLinesdata

2.POLICIESFOREVINTRODUCTIONINEACHCOUNTRY

2-1.Thailand

ThailandhaslongbeenthelargestautomotivemanufacturingbaseinSoutheastAsia.Now,amidtheglobalshifttoelectrification,itispursuingpoliciestomakeitselfaproductionhubforEVswithinandbeyondtheASEANregion.

TheThailandEVcommittee2hassetfortha“30@30”policythatcallsforEVstoaccountfor30%ofdomesticvehicleproductionby2030,withthegoalofincreasingtheshareofEVsinsalesto50%inthesameyear.TopromotetheadoptionofEVs,thegovernmentisprovidingsubsidiesforEVpurchasesandcommoditytaxreductionsonthesalesside.Ontheproductionside,therearereductionsandexemptionsinimporttariffsonEVsandtheircomponents,alongwithcorporatetaxexemptionsrangingfrom5to13yearsforcompaniesinvestinginEVproductionfacilitiesandcharginginfrastructure(Figure4).

However,itshouldbenotedthatmanyofthesepoliciesareforalimitedtime.CompaniesthatimportandsellEVsbetween2022and2025andreceivesubsidieswillberequiredtoproduceinThailandaccordingtoaccumulatedsalesvolumesfrom2024onward.Thiswillincentivizecompaniestostartproductionearly,withtherequiredproductionvolumesincreasingbyproductionyear.After2026,importsoffinishedvehicleswillnolongerbeallowed,anddomesticproductionofkeycomponentssuchasvehiclebatterieswillbemandatory.

2TheNationalElectricVehiclePolicyCommittee(NEVPC),chairedbyPrimeMinisterSretthaThavisin.

Mitsui&Co.GlobalStrategicStudiesInstituteMonthlyReportApril2024

Figure4:Thaigovernment’spoliciestopromoteEVadoptionandinvestment

EVintroductiontarget

30%ofdomesticproduction(725,000units)and50%ofdomesticsales(440,000units)tobeEVsby2030.

Purchasesubsidies

Vehiclemodel

Batterycapacity

Policyscheme

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

Passengervehicle

(2millionTHBorlessonly)

＜30kWh

EV3.0

70,000THB

30kWh≦

150,000THB

＜50kWh

EV3.5

50,000THB

35,000THB

25,000THB

50kWh≦

100,000THB

75,000THB

50,000THB

Pickup

(2millionTHBorlessonly)

30kWh≦

EV3.0

150,000THB

50kWh≦

EV3.5

100,000THB

Commoditytaxreduction

Passengervehicle(7millionTHBorless)

Both

Taxreductionfromnormal8%to2%

Pickup(2millionTHBorless)

Taxexemption(normallyat3–12%;domesticallyproducedvehiclesonly)

Reductionorexemptionof

importdutiesonfinished

vehicles

Salesprice2millionTHBorless

Both

Upto40%reduction

20%reduction

Upto40%reduction

Salesprice2–7millionTHBandbatterycapacity≤30

Excluded

Mandatorydomesticproduction

(conditionforreceivingsubsidiesandtaxincentives)

Finishedvehicleproduction

EV3.0

Importandregistrationoffinishedvehicles

Obligationtoproducethesamenumberasimportsin2022to2023

Obligationtoproduce1.5timesthenumberofimportsin2022to2023

EV3.5

Importandregistrationoffinishedvehicles

Obligationtoproduce2timesthenumberofimportsin2024to2025

Obligationtoproduce3timesthenumberofimportsin2024to2025

Partsproduction

EV3.0

Exemptionfromimporttariffson9EVparts

Domesticproductionofbatteries

Corporatetaxreductionorexemption

Finishedvehicleproduction

BEV

Investmentof5billionTHBormore:Upto13-yearexemption,under5billionTHB:Upto11-yearexemption

PHEV

3-yearexemption

Partsproduction

Mainparts

8-yearexemption

Batterycapacity

Batterypackassembly:5-yearexemption,Moduleproduction,cellproduction:8-yearexemption

Charger

5-yearexemption

Note:EV3.0referstotheinvestmentincentiveschemefrom2022to2025;EV3.5referstotheinvestmentincentiveschemefrom2024to2027

2-2.Indonesia

Indonesiahassetagoalofhaving30%offourmillionunitsoffour-wheeledvehiclesproducedinthecountrybeLCEV3sby2035.Ofthese,onemillionaretobesolelyBEVs4.TostimulateEVproduction,thegovernmentofferstaxexemptionsatthetimeofpurchase,contingentonlocalvehicleassemblyandacertainrateofrawmaterialsandcomponentsbeingsourcedlocally(apolicyknownas“TKDN”).5Inaddition,companiesdomesticallyproducingEVsortheirpartsbenefitfromcorporatetaxexemptionslastingbetween5to20years.

Indonesia’sfocusondomesticproductionandprocurementinEV-relatedtargetsandmeasuresisevengreaterthanthatofThailand.However,fromtheendof2023,thegovernmentbegantoeasetheconditionoflocalprocurementofparts,allowingfortheimportoffinishedvehiclesandequipmentunderfavorableconditionstofacilitateearlymarketentryforcompaniesinvestingindomesticBEVproduction(Figure5).

Meanwhile,policiesaimedatdomesticallypromotingandutilizingEVsremainlimited.Forinstance,purchasesubsidiesaregrantedtotwo-wheelEVsbutnottofour-wheelEVs,andincentivesfortheinstallationofchargingstationsarelimited.

Figure5:Indonesiangovernment’spoliciestopromoteEVusageandinvestment

EVintroductiontarget

Ofthe4millionunitstargetedforproductionin2035,1.2millionareLCEVsand1millionareBEVs.Noenginecarstobesoldafter2050

Luxurytaxexemption

BEVsandfuelcellvehiclesthatmeettherequiredlocalprocurementrate(TKDN)forcertainrawmaterialsandcomponentsaresubjecttoaneffectivetaxrateofzero

Valueaddedtaxreduction

ValueaddedtaxrateforpurchaseofBEVsexceeding40%TKDNisreducedfromthenormal11%to1%

TKDNcondition

Domesticproductionrateissetat40%untiltheendof2026,withanincreaseplannedfrom2027

Corporatetaxreductionorexemption

TaxbreaksforcorporationsmanufacturingEVvehiclesandcomponentsdomesticallySubject:EVs,batteries,motors,powercontrolunits,etc.

Minimuminvestment:100billionIDR(approximately1billionJPY)

Reduction/exemptionperiod/rate:5to20yearsfromthestartofcommercialproduction,withareductionof50%to100%,dependingontheinvestmentamount

IncentivesforEV-relatedinvestmententerprises(PresidentialDecreeNo.

79of2023)

Until2025,companiesthatconstructBEVproductionfacilities,investinequipment,andinvesttoenhanceproductioncapacityfornewproductswillbeallowedtoimportacertainamountofcompletebuilt-up(CBU)vehicles,withimporttaxbreaksatvehicleimportation,preferentialimporttariffsforrawmaterialsand

componentsusedinproductionandmachineryandfacilitiesforfactories,andluxurytaxincentivesatpointofsale

Source:CompiledbyMGSSIbasedonJETROandotherdata

3LowCabonEmissionVehicleincludingBEV,PHVandHybridElectricVehicle

4ItissetintheAutomotiveIndustryRoadmapbytheIndonesianMinistryofIndustry.

5EstablishedbyPresidentialDecreeNo.55of2019andrelaxedbyPresidentialDecreeNo.79of2023.

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2-3.PolicysimilaritiesbetweenThailandandIndonesiaandtheirdifferencesfromotherregions

BothThailandandIndonesiahavebeenfocusedonbuildingproductioncapacitiesforEVsandtheircomponents,suchasvehiclebatteries,withanemphasisonturningtheseintoexportindustries.However,neithercountryhasfuelefficiency6orzero-emissionvehicle(ZEV)regulations7thatcoulddriveEVadoptionwithintheirborders.InregionslikeEuropeandChina,whereEVadoptionismoreadvanced,subsidiesandsuchregulationsserveasbothacarrotandastick.Withoutsuchregulations,thereisnodriverofdomesticEVadoption,andtherelativelylowamountsofsubsidiesavailablemaybeinsufficienttosignificantlyboostdemand.

3.TRENDSINCORPORATEEXPANSION

3-1.Thailand

Chinesecompaniesareincreasinglyannouncingproductionexpansions,takingadvantageofsubsidiesandvarioustaxincentives(Figure6).BYD,aleadingEVmanufacturer,planstobringitsfirstproductionbaseoutsideChinaonlineinthefirsthalfof2024,whileChanganAutomobileandothersareplanningtostartEVproduction.By2030,productioncapacityisexpectedtoexceed600,000unitsannually,significantlysurpassingthedomesticsalestarget.

Incontrast,Japanesecompanies,whichhavelong-establishedproductionbasesinThailandandhistoricallyheldover80%ofthelocalmarketshare,havebeencautiousandaremaintainingawait-and-seeapproach.Hondahasstartedsomeproduction,8butnootherspecificplansforlocalproductionhavebeenrevealed.9

3-2.Indonesia

FollowingThailand,Indonesiaisseeingarushofentries:SouthKorea’sHyundaiMotor,SAIC-GM-WulingAutomobile,DongfengSokonAutomobile(DFSK),andCheryAutomobilehavealreadybegunproduction.From2024onwards,BYD,MG(SAICMotor),Ora(GreatWallMotor),HozonAuto(Neta),andVietnam’sVinfasthaveannouncedstartofproduction.

Inaddition,focusingonbatteryproduction—apriorityfortheIndonesiangovernment—HyundaiMotorhascommencedthecountry’sfirstproductionofbatterycellsincollaborationwithSouthKorea’sLGEnergySolutionandIBC10.Chinesecompaniesarealsoleadingthesurgeinentriesintothebatterymarket:SAIC-GM-WulingAutomobileisconductingjointdevelopmentwithGotionHigh-Tech.China’sCATLisadvancingplanstoestablishasupplychainincorporatingnickeloreminingtobatterymanufacturingandrecyclingincollaborationwithlocalenterprisessuchasIBC.

6Corporateaveragefueleconomy(CAFE)regulationsgoverntheaveragefueleconomyofvehiclessoldbyacompanyoverayear.InEurope,thereareCO2emissionregulations.

7Acertainpercentageofthevehiclessoldannuallybyacompanymustbezero-emissionvehicles(ZEVs),whichincludeBEVs,PHEVs,andfuelcellvehicles.InChina,thesearecoveredbyNewEnergyVehicle(NEV)regulations.

8Productionhasbegunonthee:N1lineataThaifactory,thoughproductioncapacityisnotdisclosed.

9InDecember2023,aspokespersonfortheThaigovernmentannouncedthatfourJapaneseautomakersareexpectedtoinvestapproximately150billionTHBinlocalEVproductionoverthenextfiveyears.

10IndonesiaBatteryCorporation,astate-ownedenterpriseestablishedtopromotebatteryproductioninthecountry.

Figure6:StateofproductionbaseestablishmentbycompaniesinThailandandIndonesia

Destination

of

expansion

Business

Countryoforigin

Details

Operationstartdate

Thailand

EVvehicles

SAICMotor

China

JointproductionwiththeCPGroupsince2017.BEVproductionstartedattheendof2023.

Investmentof2.5billionTHBtobuildabatteryplantinconjunctionwithBEVproduction.

2023

BYD

China

Investmentof17.9billionTHBtoestablishaplantwithanannualcapacityof150,000units.

Investmentof3.9billionTHBthroughasubsidiarytoproducebatteriesforEVs/PHEVs.

2024

GreatWallMotor

China

AcquisitionofaGM'splantandinvestmentof22.6billionTHBinrenovation,inadditiontoexistingproduction.

ProductionofbatteriesforHEVsandBEVsatbatterysubsidiarySVOLT.

2024

ChanganAutomobile

China

Investmentof8.8billionTHBtobuildaplantwithanannualcapacityof100,000units.Alsomanufacturingofonboardbatteries.

2025

Foxconn

Taiwan

EstablishmentofanEVplantwithanannualcapacityof50,000unitsinajointventurewithasubsidiaryofPTTPublicCompanyLimited.

Increaseinannualproductionto150,000unitsby2030.

2024

HozonAuto

China

OutsourcingproductiontolocalcompanyBGAC.Annualproductioncapacityof20,000units.

2024

CheryAutomobile

China

OutsourcingtoFoxconn/PTTjointventureforknockdownproduction.Firstphase:18,000unitsperyear,secondphase:50,000units,thirdphase:60,000units.

2024

GuangzhouAutomobile(AION)

China

Investmentof6billionTHB.Plannedproductionvolumeof20,000unitsin2024.

2024

Honda

Japan

Productionofe:N1launchedonThaifactoryline.Productioncapacitynotdisclosed.

2023

Indonesia

EVvehicles

Hyundai

SouthKorea

FirstproductionofEVsinIndonesiaattheirproductionfacilitywithanannualcapacityof150,000units.

ProductionofbatterycellsincollaborationwithLG(SouthKorea)andIBC(Indonesia).

2022

2024

SAIC-GM-WulingAutomobile

China

ProductionofsmallEVs.

DevelopmentofvehiclebatteriesfortheIndonesianmarketwithGotionHigh-Tech.

2022

DongfengSokonAutomobile

China

ProductionofsmallcommercialEVs.

2023

CheryAutomobile

China

StartofCKDproductionoftheSUVOmoda5atHandalIndonesiaMotor.

2023

MG(SAICMotor)

China

StartofproductionofthesubsidiarybrandMaxusinfirsthalfof2024.

2024

GreatWallMotor

China

StartofproductionofthesubsidiarybrandOraEVinsecondquarter.

2024

HozonAuto

China

CKDproductionofNetaVinpartnershipwithHandalIndonesiaMotor.Annualproductioncapacityof27,000units.

2024

Vehiclebatteries

CATL

China

Establishmentofanindustrialchainofnickeloremining,refining,

batterymanufacturing,andrecyclingwithtwostate-owned

companies.Investmentofupto6billionUSDinbatteryplants.

2022

LGEnergySolution

SouthKorea

ConstructionofanintegratedbatteryproductioncapacitywithaconsortiumwithAntam(Indonesia)andIBC.

2022

Foxconn

Taiwan

EstablishmentofanEVbatteryproductioncompanyforcommercialvehicleswithMMG(Indonesia).

2022

SKOn

SouthKorea

ConstructionofaplanttoproducenickelintermediaterawmaterialswithEcoPro(SouthKorea)andGEM(China).Supplytostartin2024.

2022

Note:InDecember2023,aspokespersonfortheThaigovernmentannouncedthatfourJapaneseautomakersareexpectedtoinvestapproximately150billionTHBinlocalEVproductionoverthenextfiveyears.

Source:CompiledbyMGSSIbasedonJETRO,MarkLines,NikkeiSangyoShimbun,YomiuriShimbun,ToyoKeizai,andotherdata

4.OUTLOOKONAUTOMOTIVEELECTRIFICATIONINSOUTHEASTASIA

4-1.Thailand

TherapidincreaseinEVsalesin2023canbeattributedtoasurgeofChinesecompaniesenteringthemarket,combinedwitharushtopurchasebeforethereductionofsubsidiesandotherpreferentialpoliciesfrom2024.WhilesomeEVshavebecomeavailableatpricescomparabletothoseofJapanesehybridvehiclesduetothesepreferentialpolicies,buyersareprimarilylimitedtourbanyouthsandearlyadopters,duetocost-performanceandchargingconvenience.Furthermore,pickuptrucks,whichaccountfornearlyhalfofthemarketinThailand,areunsuitableforelectrificationascarryingmorebatteriesonboardreducesthecargocapacity,makingcommercializationdifficult.

Additionally,Chinesecompaniesarecurrentlytakingadvantageoftemporarytaxexemptionstopushimportedfinishedvehicles,11butwhenmandatorylocalproductionstartsin2026,productioncostsarelikelytoincreasesignificantly.Assubsidiesarereduced,itcouldbecomeincreasinglydifficulttocompetewithgasolineandhybridvehiclesonprice.

Ifproductioncapacityexpandsandexceedsdomesticdemand,thesurplusislikelytobeexported.However,

11TheFTAbetweenChinaandASEANcountriesreducestheusual80%tariffonimportedfinishedvehiclestozero.

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differentiatingtheselocallyproducedEVsfromthosemadeinmainlandChinaandalreadyexportedaroundtheworldwillbeachallenge.

4-2.Indonesia

IndonesiaisimmatureasanEVmarketmorethanThailand.Themaindemandcomesfromindividualsseekingasecondvehicleorthoseaffectedbylicenseplateregulations12inurbanareas.ThepricedifferencebetweenpopularsmallMPV13gasolinevehiclesandEVsissubstantial,attwotothreetimeshigher,makingthisalsoasegmentthatposeschallengesforelectrification.Luxuryandvalue-addedtaxreductionsalonearenotenoughtosignificantlyboostadoption,makingaconsiderableexpansionoftheEVmarketunlikelyinthenearterm.

However,similartoThailand,allowingimportedfinishedvehiclestoenterthemarketbeforethestartoflocalproductionisexpectedtoresultinanintensificationofsaleseffortsbyChinesemanufacturers.

4-3.ImplicationsforJapaneseCompanies

Asaresultof