俄罗斯实力分析报告-外文版培训课件

POLITICS

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SOCIETYArmedForcesofRussiaCHAPTER

01OverviewLargestarmiesintheworldrankedbyactivemilitarypersonnelasofJanuary2024(in1,000s)Largestarmiesintheworldbyactivemilitarypersonnel2024Activemilitarypersonnelinthousands1,000

1,50005002,0002,500ChinaIndia2,0351,456UnitedStatesRussiaNorthKoreaUkraine1,3281,3201,320900PakistanIran654610SouthKoreaVietnamEgypt600600440412400MexicoIndonesia3Description:AsofJanuary2024,Chinahadthelargestarmedforcesintheworldbyactivedutymilitarypersonnel,withabout2millionactivesoldiers.India,theUnitedStates,NorthKorea,andRussiaroundedoutthetopfivelargestarmies.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;January2024Source(s):GlobalFirepowerCountrieswiththehighestmilitaryspendingworldwidein2023(inbillionU.S.dollars)Countrieswiththehighestmilitaryspending2023MilitaryspendinginbillionU.S.dollars400

50001002003006007008009001,000UnitedStatesChina*916296Russia*109India83.6SaudiArabia*UnitedKingdomGermanyUkraine75.874.966.864.861.3FranceJapanSouthKoreaItaly50.247.935.5AustraliaPoland32.331.627.5Israel4Description:TheUnitedStatesledtherankingofthecountrieswiththehighestmilitaryspendingin2023,with916billionU.S.dollarsdedicatedtothemilitary.Thatconstitutedover40percentofthetotalꢀmilitaryspendingworldwidethatyear,whichamountedto2.4trillionU.S.dollars.Thisamountedto3.5percentoftheU.S.grossdomesticproduct(GDP),placingtheU.S.lowerintherankingofmilitaryexpenditureasapercentageofGDPthanforinstanceSaudiArabia,Israel,Algeria,andRussia.China[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023;*Valueestimatedbythesource.SpendingfiguresareinU.S.dollars,atconstant(2021)pricesandexchangerates.ReadmoreSource(s):SIPRIDistributionofmilitaryspendingworldwidein2023,bycountryDistributionofmilitaryexpendituregloballyin2023,bycountryOthercountries19.7%Israel1.1%Poland1.3%Australia1.3%UnitedStates37%Italy2.0%SouthKorea2%Japan2.1%France2.5%Ukraine2.7%Germany2.7%UnitedKingdom3.1%SaudiArabia*3.1%China*12%Russia*4.5%India3.4%5Description:In2023,themilitaryspendingoftheUnitedStatesaccountedfor37percentofthetotalmilitaryspendingworldwide.Intotal,theexpenditureonthemilitaryworldwidewasassessedat2.44trillionU.S.dollars.ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023;*Valueestimatedbythesource.In2022,worldmilitaryexpendituresamountedtoatotalofaround2.24trillionU.S.dollars.ReadmoreSource(s):SIPRIMilitaryexpenditureaspercentageofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inhighestspendingcountries2023MilitaryexpenditureasshareofGDP2023,bycountryShareofGDP20%0%5%10%15%25%30%35%40%UkraineAlgeria37%8.2%SaudiArabia*Russia*7.1%5.9%5.4%5.3%4.9%OmanIsraelKuwaitPolandUnitedStatesGreeceColombiaSouthKoreaPakistanSingaporeFinland3.8%3.4%3.2%2.9%2.8%2.8%2.7%2.4%6Description:Asashareofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP),Ukrainespentmoreonitsmilitarythananyothercountryin2023,reaching37percentofthecountry'sGDP.ThehighfigureisduetothecountrybeinginvadedbyRussiainFebruary2022.AlgeriaandSaudiArabiafollowedbehind.LeadingmilitaryspendingcountriesIngrossterms,thecountrieswiththehighestmilitaryspendingaretheUnitedStates,China,andRussia.However,thesearecountrieswithlargepopulationsandGDPs,andsmaller[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2023;*Figuresestimatedbythesource.ReadmoreSource(s):SIPRIMilitaryexpenditureintheCommonwealthofIndependentStates(CIS)from2021to2022,bycountry(inmillioncurrentU.S.dollars)MilitaryspendingintheCIS2021-2022,bycountryMilitaryspendinginmillioncurrentU.S.dollars20222021010,0005,942.820,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,00086,373.1RussiaUkraine¹²AzerbaijanKazakhstan¹Belarus65,907.7143,997.752,991.042,703.21,1331,617.8820.78762.8795.2Armenia¹619.4360.34Georgia¹³Kyrgyzstan⁴Tajikistan¹Moldova¹⁵300.49149.77124.9103.4881.747.7552.297Description:Russia'smilitaryexpenditurewasthehighestintheCommonwealthofIndependentStates(CIS),atnearly86.4billionU.S.dollarsin2022.ThemilitaryspendingofUkraine,whichstoppedparticipatinginmostCISactivitiesin2014,wastwotimeslower.Between2021and2022,Ukraine'smilitaryspending,excludingforeigndonations,grewby640percent.ReadmoreNote(s):Asia,Europe;2021to2022Source(s):SIPRIPowerIndexscoreofmilitaryforcesinEurope2023,bycountry(0.00=perfectmilitary)PowerIndexofmilitaryforcesinEurope2023PowerIndex

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military)Russia0.070.140.180.2UnitedKingdomFranceItalyTürkiye0.2UkrainePoland0.250.340.360.390.460.530.570.58SpainGermanyGreeceNorwaySwedenNetherlands8Description:RussiahadthemostpowerfulmilitaryinEuropeaccordingtoitsPowerIndexscore,whichcomparesthestrengthandcapabilityofdifferentcountries.Accordingtothisranking,theUKhadthesecondstrongestmilitaryinEurope,followedbyFrance,andthenItaly.ReadmoreNote(s):Europe;2023Source(s):GlobalFirepowerNumberofnuclearwarheadsworldwideasofJanuary2023Numberofnuclearwarheadsworldwide2023Numberofnuclearwarheads02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000WorldwidetotalRussia12,5125,889USA5,244China410290FranceUnitedKingdomPakistanIndia225170164Israel90NorthKorea

209Description:Asaweaponofmassdestruction,nuclearwarheadsarepartofthedefensearsenalofsomecountriesintheworld.Therewereapproximately12,500nuclearwarheadsworldwideasofJanuary2023andalmost90percentofthembelongtotwocountries:theUnitedStatesandRussia.EventhoughthenumberofnuclearweaponsworldwidehasbeendecreasingsincetheColdWar,stillthesametwocountriespossessthemajorityofthem.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;AsofJanuary2023Source(s):SIPRILargestarms-producingandmilitaryservicescompaniesinRussiain2022,bytotalandarmssales(inmillionU.S.dollars)Leadingarms-producingandmilitaryservicescompaniesinRussia2022ArmssalesTotalsales35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000030,29516,8105,0113,950Rostec*UnitedShipbuildingCorporation10Description:UnitedShipbuildingCorporationisoneofRussia'smajorarmsproducingcompanies.In2022,itwasestimatedtohavetotalsalesofaroundfivebillionU.S.dollars.Armssalesaccountedforroughly79percentofthetotal.

ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;2022;*RostecisaholdingcompanywithnodirectmanufacturingcapacityandwouldthereforeusuallybeexcludedfromtheTop100.Ithasbeenincludedinthe2022rankingduetothelackofdataforalmostallotherRussian[...]ReadmoreSource(s):SIPRICHAPTER

02DefensespendingMilitaryspendinginRussiafrom1993to2023(inbillioncurrentU.S.dollars)MilitaryexpenditureinRussia1993-2023120100806040200199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202312Description:Russiaspentapproximately109.45billioncurrentU.S.dollarsonitsmilitaryexpensesin2023,havingincreaseditsspendingbyalmostsevenpercentfromthepreviousyear.Overtheobservedperiod,thehighestmilitaryexpenditureofthecountrywasrecordedin2023.ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;1993to2023Source(s):SIPRIRussia:Ratioofmilitaryspendingtogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)from2000to2023Ratioofmilitaryexpendituretogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inRussia2000-20236.5%6.0%5.5%5.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2000

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202313Description:In2023,theratioofmilitaryexpendituretogrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inRussiaincreasedbyroughly1.2percentagepointsfromthepreviousyear.Intotal,theratioamountedto5.86percentin2023.

ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;2000to2023Source(s):SIPRINationaldefenseexpenditureinthefederalbudgetofRussiafrom2006to2026(inbillionRussianrubles)FederalbudgetspendingonnationaldefenseinRussia2006-202612,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00002006

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2026*14Description:ThenationaldefensespendinginthefederalbudgetofRussiawasplannedatapproximately10.8trillionRussianrublesin2024,whichwouldbethehighestovertheobservedperiod.Tocompare,in2021,theexpenditurestoodatbelow3.6trillionRussianrubles.ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;2006to2023;*Planned.Figureshavebeenrounded.Thestatistichasbeencompiledfromseveralreportsbythesource.

ReadmoreSource(s):ConsultantPlus;MinistryofFinanceoftheRussianFederationCHAPTER

03PersonnelNumberofRussianArmedForcespersonnelfrom2018to2023RussianArmedForcespersonnel2018-2023TotalOfthemservicemen2,500,0002,000,0001,500,0001,000,000500,00002,209,1302,039,7581,902,7581,320,0001,150,6281,013,6282018-2022Jan1-Nov30,2023FromDec1,202316/statistics/1334454/russian-armed-forces-personnelStartingfromDecember1,2023,theRussianArmedForcescountednearly2.21millionpersonnel.Ofthem,around60percenthadtobeinactiveduty.ThesizeoftheRussianArmywasincreasedtwiceafterthestartofthewarinUkraineinFebruary2022.ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;2018to2023Source(s):GovernmentofRussiaNumberofmilitarypersonnelinRussiaasof2024,bytype(inmillions)MilitarypersonnelinRussia2024,bytype2.522.01.51.00.50.01.320.25ActiveReserveParamilitary17Description:HowmanysoldiersdoesRussiahave?RussianArmedForceshad3.57milliontroopsasof2024,with37percentofthem,or1.32million,beingactivemilitarypersonnel.Twomillionwerereserveservicemembers,and250,000wereparamilitaryforces.ThenumberofpeopleintheRussianmilitarywasincreasedtwiceaftertheinvasionofUkraine;therespectivepresidentialdecreescameintoforceinJanuaryandDecember2023.

ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;asof2024Source(s):GlobalFirepowerNumberofmilitaryconscriptsinRussiafrom2012to2023,bydraft(in1,000s)NumberofmilitaryconscriptsinRussia2012-2023SpringFall35030025020015010050020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202318Description:Atotalof130thousandnewconscriptswereorderedinRussiaduringthefalldraftof2023.Overthepastdecade,thehighestannualconscriptionwasrecordedin2014,atover308thousand.InSeptember2022,theRussiangovernmentannouncementamilitarydraftofreservistsduringtheinvasionofUkraine.ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;spring2012tofall2023Source(s):GovernmentofRussiaCHAPTER

04InventoryComparisonofthemilitarycapabilitiesofRussiaandUkraineasof2024ComparisonofmilitarycapabilitiesofRussiaandUkraine2024IndicatorRussiaUkrainePersonnelEstimatedavailablemanpowerActivesoldiersReserveforcesParamilitaryunitsAirforce6943247213200002000000250000228063039000001200000100000Totalaircraft4255154780973055955245332113072TotalhelicoptersFightersDedicatedattackAttackhelicoptersTrainers303373Transportaircraft2420Description:Russia'smilitarycapabilitiesoutnumberedthoseofUkraineformostindicatorsasof2024.Forexample,thenumberofaircraftatthedisposaloftheRussianArmyexceeded4,200,whiletheUkrainianArmedForcespossessed321aircraft.Russia'snavalfleetwas7.5timeslargerthanUkraine's.Moreover,Russiawasoneoftheninecountriesthatpossessednuclearweapons.Asofearly2023,Russiaheldtheworld'slargestinventoryofnuclearwarheads.

ReadmoreNote(s):Russia,Ukraine;2024Source(s):GlobalFirepower;SIPRI;ComparisonofthemilitarycapabilitiesofNATOandRussiaasof2024ComparisonofthemilitarycapabilitiesofNATOandRussia2024NATORussiaPersonnelTotalmilitarypersonnelActivesoldiers762878233907973440165797820357000013200002000000250000ReserveforcesParamilitaryunitsAirForceTotalaircraft22308327511951493931481480973045314519Fighters/interceptorsGroundattackaircraftTransportaircraftSpecialaircraft(e.greconnaissance)Tankeraircraft655Totalhelicopters8950154721Description:Asof2024,NATOhadapproximately3.39millionactivemilitarypersonnel,comparedwith1.32millionactivemilitarypersonnelintheRussianmilitary.Thecollectivemilitarycapabilitiesofthe32countriesthatmakeupNATOoutnumberRussiaintermsofaircraft,at22,308to4,814,andinnavalpower,with2,258militaryships,to781.Russia'sgroundcombatvehiclecapacityismorecompetitive,however,with14,777mainbattletanks,toNATO's11,390.Thecombinednucleararsenalofthe[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2024;*InformationtakenfromthisSIPRIpressrelease(asofJanuary2023).ThevaluesfortheUSA,FranceandtheUnitedKingdomwereaddedtogetherfortheinformationforNATO.Statusofallotherinformation:beginning[...]

ReadmoreSource(s):GlobalFirepower;SIPRIComparisonofairforcesofRussiaandUkraineasof2024,bytypeAirpowerofRussiaandUkraineincomparison2024AircraftcountUkraine2,000Russia05003211,0001,5002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5004,255TotalaircraftHelicopters13072303373241,547FighteraircraftDedicatedattackAttackhelicoptersTrainers809730559552Transports4533Special-missionAerialtankers14501922Description:Asof2024,thetotalnumberofaircraftofRussiaoutnumberedthatoftheAirForcesofUkrainebymorethan13times.ThenumberofRussianfighteraircraftamountedto809,whereasUkrainehad72fighteraircraft.

ReadmoreNote(s):Russia,Ukraine;asof2024Source(s):GlobalFirepowerComparisonofmilitaryvehiclesofRussiaandUkraineasof2024,bytypeLandpowerofRussiaandUkraineincomparison2024NumberofvehiclesUkraineRussia020,00022,11040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000ArmoredvehiclesTankstrength161,3821,7771,20514,777Self-propelledartilleryTowedartillery6,2081,0128,356491Mobilerocketprojectors3,06523Description:Asof2024,thetankstrengthofRussiareachedover14,700,havingexceededthelandforcesofUkrainebymorethaneighttimes.ThenumberofarmoredvehiclesoftheRussianArmyexceeded161,300,ascomparedtomorethan22,100oftheUkrainianArmy.ReadmoreNote(s):Russia,Ukraine;asof2024Source(s):GlobalFirepowerComparisonofnavalforcesofRussiaandUkraineasof2024,bytypeNavalpowerofRussiaandUkraineincomparison2024NumberofvesselsUkraine400Russia0100104200300500600700800781900FleetstrengthPartolvesselsCorvettes331220083SubmarinesMinewarfareDestroyers65347011412Frigates01Aircraftcarriers24Description:Asof2024,thefleetstrengthofRussiaoutnumberedthenavalforcesofUkrainebyaround7.5times.TheUkrainianArmywasreportedtohavenocorvettes,submarines,destroyers,andaircraftcarriers.

ReadmoreNote(s):Russia,Ukraine;asof2024Source(s):GlobalFirepowerNumberofnuclearwarheadsstockpiledbyNATOandRussiaasof2022,bytypeNumberofnuclearwarheadsinNATOandRussia2022,bytypeNATORussia3,0002,3852,5002,0001,5001,0005001,9121,1859008008005802300Intercontinentalballisticmissiles(ICBMs)Submarinelaunchedballisticmissiles(SLBMs)Aircraft/bombersNonstrategicanddefensiveforces25Description:Asof2022,Russiahadapproximately1,185nuclearintercontinentalballisticmissiles(ICBMs)stockpiled,comparedwithNATO,whichhad800ICBMs.Bycomparison,NATOhasmorenuclearsubmarinelaunchedballisticmissiles(SLBMs)aswellaswarheadsthatareintendedtobedeliveredbyaircraft.Intermsoftactical,ornonstrategicnuclearwarheads,Russiahadafargreateramount,at1,912comparedwith230amongNATOpowers.

ReadmoreNote(s):France,Russia,UnitedKingdom,UnitedStates;2019to2022Source(s):FederationofAmericanScientistsTotalinventoryofnuclearwarheadsinRussiafrom2012to2023,bytypeNumberofnuclearwarheadsinRussia2012-2023,bytypeDeployedStoredRetiredStoredorretired12,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00008,2006,7001,4002,8159516,4005,7205,5005,0505,2504,9004,8054,6302,8891,95020171,80020121,80020131,78020151,79020161,67420231,60020141,60020181,60020191,57020201,62520211,588202226Description:Russiahadaninventoryof5,889nuclearwarheadsasofJanuary2023.Ofthem,1,674,orapproximately28percent,weredeployed.Russia,whichconducteditsfirstnucleartestin1949,hadthelargestnuclearweaponinventoryworldwide,followedbytheUnitedStates.ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;2012to2023Source(s):SIPRIMaximumrangeofoperationalmissilesinRussiain2021(inkilometers)MaximumrangeofoperationalmissilesinRussia2021Rangeofmissileinkilometers02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,000R-36(SS-18"Satan"):ICBMShtil(SS-N-23"Skiff"):SLBMTopol-M(SS-27Mod1):ICBMTopol(SS-25"Sickle"):ICBMRS-24Yars(SS-27Mod2):ICBMUR-100(SS-19"Stiletto"):ICBMBulava(SS-N-32):SLBM16,00011,00011,00011,00010,50010,0008,300R-29Vysota(SS-N-18"Stingray"):SLBMGranat(SS-N-21"Sampson"):CruiseMissileKh-101/Kh-102:ALCM6,5003,0002,8002,5009M729(SSC-8):GLCMKalibr(SS-N-30A):LACMKh-55(AS-15"Kent"):ALCM2,5002,50027Description:Russia'slongest-rangeoperationalmissileistheinter-continentalballisticmissile(ICBM)R-36,whichiscapableofhittingtargetsfromupto16,000kilometersaway.Themissileswiththesecond-longestmaximumrangeinRussia'smissilearsenalareShtil,Topol-M,andTopol,at11,000kilometerseach.ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;2021Source(s):CSISCHAPTER

05ArmstradeArmsexportsfromRussiafrom2018to2022,bycountry(inTIVexpressedinmillions)ArmsexportsinRussia2018-2022,bydestinationExportsinTIVexpressedinmillions2018

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5,00001,0002,0006,0007,0008,000IndiaChinaEgyptAlgeriaKazakhstanBelarusVietnamIraqMyanmarTurkeySyriaAngola29Description:IndiawastheleadingdestinationofarmstransfersfromRussiain2022.Russianexportstothatcountryexceeded1.3billiontrade-indicatorvalues(TIV).Furthermore,Russiasupplied727millionTIVofarmsexportstoChinainthatyear.TheTIVisaunitdevelopedbytheStockholmInternationalPeaceResearchInstitute(SIPRI)basedonknownunitproductioncostsofcoreweapons.Itisintendedtorepresentthetransferofmilitaryresourcesratherthanthefinancialvalueofthetransfer.

ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;2018to2022Source(s):SIPRIArmsexportsfromRussiafrom2017to2022,byweapon(inTIVexpressedinmillions)ArmsexportsinRussia2017-2022,byweaponEnginesAircraftMissilesArmoredvehiclesAirdefencesystemsOtherNavalweaponsSensorsArtillerySatellitesShips8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000020172018201920202021202230Description:Russia'sexportsofenginesforweaponsweremeasuredat893milliontrade-indicatorvalues(TIV)in2022.Furthermore,aircraftexportsreached855millionTIVinthesameyear.Thetotalexportsofmajorweaponsfromthecountryexceeded2.8billionTIVin2022.TheTIVisaunitdevelopedbytheStockholmInternationalPeaceResearchInstitute(SIPRI)basedonknownunitproductioncostsofcoreweapons.Itisintendedtorepresentthetransferofmilitaryresourcesratherthanthe[...]

ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;2017to2022Source(s):SIPRIRussia'sshareoftotalimportsofmajorarmsincountrieswhereitisoneofthetopthreesuppliersfrom2019to2023Russia'sshareinarmsimports2019-2023,bycountryRussia'sshareinimports0%20%40%60%80%100%BelarusKazakhstanChina100%94%77%Algeria48%MyanmarIndia38%36%Egypt20%Turkey15%31Description:From2019to2023,RussiawasthemainsupplierofweaponstoIndia,China,Algeria,Kazakhstan,Myanmar,andBelarus.Forexample,Russiaaccountedfor100percentofthetotalweaponimportsofBelarusovertheobservedperiod.

ReadmoreNote(s):Worldwide;2019to2023Source(s):SIPRIShareofexportsofmajorarmsinRussiafrom2018to2023,bymainrecipientExportshareofmajorarmsexportsinRussia2018-2023,bymainclient2018-20222019-202340%34%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%31%23%21%9.3%7.5%0%IndiaChinaEgypt32Description:Between2019and2023,IndiawasthemainrecipientofmajorarmsexportedfromRussia,accountingfor34percentofRussia'sweaponexports,threepercentagepointsupfromtheperiodfrom2018to2022.Withashareof21percent,Chinalistedinthesecondplace.ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;2018to2023Source(s):SIPRICHAPTER

06PublicattitudeLeveloftrustintheArmedForcesofRussiafromJune1994toSeptember2023TrustintheRussianArmy1994-202385%75%65%55%45%35%25%15%Jun

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202334Description:Over70percentofRussiansexpressedtrustintheircountry'sArmedForcesinSeptember2023.Thetrustdecreasedbysevenpercentagepointsfromthepreviousyear,whenitstoodatarecordhigh.Furthermore,theshareofrespondentswhotrustedtheRussianArmedForcessawasteadyincreasebetween2012and2015.ReadmoreNote(s):Russia;September21to27,2023;1,633respondents;18yearsandolderSource(s):LevadaCenterDoyoupersonallysupportornotsupporttheactionsoftheRussianArmedForcesinUkraine?Russia:opiniononmilitaryactionsinUkrainemonthly2022-2024CertainlyyesRatheryesRathernotCertainlynotHardtosay100%90%