轻工制造行业专题研究：分地区看2024年轻工板块出口韧性

基本保持在2019年疫情前水平，家得宝等渠道商库销比仍处低位。预计驱动行业结构性增长，高尔夫球车应用场景扩容，有望打开需求天花板。下半年受基数扰动，增速或将有所放缓，但未来拉美等新兴市场增量叠加发达经济体需求回暖将继续带动外销上行，因此持续看好出口链板块，建议关注的恒林股份、乐歌股份等相关标的，维持行业“强于大市”风险提示：1）消费意愿不达预期的风险；22请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 4 5 9 4请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明图表1：M4家具出口额62.60亿美元，同比+8.70%800,000700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000中国:出口金额:家具及其零件:当月值中国:出口金额:家具及其零件:当月同比45035025050-50-150图表2：2021-2023年家具及其零件出口有所下滑8,000,0007,000,0006,000,0005,000,0004,000,0003,000,0002,000,0001,000,00002012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220233530252050-5-10-15中国家具及其零件出口额(万美元)——同比图表3：2024年4月出口2yr-CAGR同比+1.75% ——中国:出口金额:家具及其零件:当月同比-2yr-CAGR2222222233222222223344%%\-01洲出口额分别为454.68/603.40/1439.91/144.-10-10图表4：2024年4月出口金额分国家同比变化（%）——中国:出口金额:北美洲:当月同比——中国:出口金额:欧洲:当月同比中国:出口金额:亚洲:当月同比中国:出口金额:拉丁美洲:当月同比中国:出口金额:韩国:当月同比中国:出口金额:东南亚国家联盟:当月同比中国:出口金额:拉丁美洲:当月同比中国:出口金额:韩国:当月同比0-20-30-40从供给端来看，此前受利率锁定影响，美国存图表6：未偿还抵押贷款利率及新增房贷利率相差较大图表5：美国成屋销量与30年期抵押贷款固定利率走图表6：未偿还抵押贷款利率及新增房贷利率相差较大 势成反比800700600400200美国:成屋销量:季调:折年数(万套)美国:30年期抵押贷款固定利率1999-112000-091999-112000-092001-072002-052003-032004-012004-112005-092006-072007-052008-032009-012009-112010-092011-072012-052013-032014-012014-112015-092016-072017-052018-032019-012019-112020-092021-072022-052023-032024-01资料来源：Wind，国联证券研究所资料来源：Fred6请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明图表7：美国新建住房销量变化情况0…………………………美国:新建住房销量:季调:折年数:同比美国:新建住房销量:季调:折年数:环比-10%-20%-30%-40%图表9：美国新建住房待售量变化美国:新建住房待售量:季调(万套)美国:新建住房待售量:季调:同比美国:新建住房待售量:季调:环比6040%5030%4020%3010%200%美国:新建住房待售量:季调:环比10-10%2019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04图表8：美国成屋销量变化情况0美国:成屋销量:季调:折年数(万套)美国:成屋销量:季调:折年数:同比美国:成屋销量:季调:折年数:环比-10%-20%-30%-40%2019-022019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04图表10：美国成屋库存量变化02019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04美国:成屋库存量(万套)2019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04美国:成屋库存量:环比-10%-20%-30%-40%发商销售额同比增速分别为+3.5%/+1.5%/+1.4%，零售商库存存同比增速分别为+4.2%/+0.7%/-2.3%。3月零售、制造、批发商库销比分别为回落，分别-0.01pct/-0.02pct/-0.01p图表11：2024年零售、制造、批发商库销比呈回落趋势美国零售、制造、批发商销额同比20190-10%-20%-10%-20%-30%美国:制造商销售额:季调:同比美国:批发商销售额:季调:同比-032020-032021-032022-032023-032024-美国零售、制造、批发商库存同比美国:制造商库存:季调:同比美国:批发商库存:季调:同比-03202美国:制造商库存:季调:同比美国:批发商库存:季调:同比-03202-20190--5%-10%-15%美国零售、制造、批发商库销比美国:零售商库存销售比:季调月售比:季调售比:季调2019-022020-022021-022022-022023-022024-02开始恢复，2024年整体维持上扬趋势，后续有图表12：3月美国家具家电库销比持略有上行美国:零售库存销售比:家具、家用装饰、电子和家用电器店:2019-032020-032021-032022-0320图表13：2024年美国消费者信心指数维持上扬趋势渠道商库销比仍处于低位，预计后续出口仍有持续增长空间。8请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明图表14：2020年至今美国家居渠道库销比及变动情况代码平台2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1海外家居渠道库销比WMT.NCOST.OKR.NWMT.NCOST.OKR.NHD.NTGT.NLOW.N34.63%沃尔玛Costco克罗格家得宝Target劳氏31.93%29.22%19.17%60.30%37.24%90.82%40.11%31.14%23.36%60.47%58.00%85.63%35.39%21.09%20.17%54.21%51.20%69.81%-29.54%22.93%34.49%30.97%30.87%22.68%33.64%31.76%33.51%24.84%34.11%29.10%30.43%--18.55%25.51%30.06%22.98%16.39%21.36%23.60%20.52%16.50%21.12%25.34%21.71%15.57%-线下61.55%53.04%35.47%48.17%51.54%51.14%45.99%55.90%61.78%65.02%59.57%66.16%69.45%68.10%61.55%-43.76%38.63%56.17%37.59%43.55%44.75%58.31%44.85%59.92%58.84%64.55%43.00%49.82%--72.59%50.66%70.43%79.73%75.27%62.83%72.80%82.50%85.54%70.35%84.40%82.57%87.36%-线上AMZN.O亚马逊24.99%22.04%24.69%18.95%21.98%21.33%27.91%23.75%30.05%31.47%28.83%23.06%26.83%27.23%24.75%19.60%21.73%W.W.NWayfair2.43%1.00%1.41%1.42%1.71%1.55%2.13%2.12%2.67%2.98%3.63%2.90%2.99%2.43%2.68%2.41%2.97%海外家居渠道库销比同比变动海外家居渠道库销比同比变动沃尔玛WMT.N沃尔玛-5.56%-4.08%-1.83%-1.83%2.98%4.11%2.53%7.52%9.83%5.44%-5.56%-4.08%-1.83%-1.83%2.98%4.11%2.53%7.52%9.83%5.44%1.43%-2.53%-5.94%-4.19%-2.61%-2.83%-3.08%-1.06%KR.N-2.92%-1.06%KR.N-2.92%-2.35%克罗格COST.OCostco-2.99%-0.25%-0.85%-1.24%-2.82%0.64%1.32%-0.25%-0.85%-1.24%-2.82%0.64%1.32%-1.98%-2.54%0.11%-0.24%-0.93%-1.98%-2.54%0.11%-0.24%-0.93%-0.95%0.79%2.64%2.16%0.47%-2.66%-3.08%-3.75%-2.97%0.12%----6.32%-2.17%-6.32%-2.17%-4.15%-6.46%-2.45%线下线下HD.N家得宝-5.70%-12.33%-9.54%-4.82%-1.90%10.52%7.73%10.24%13.88%13.59%10.26%7.67%3.08%-5.36%-5.69%-9.15%-6.55%TargetTGT.NTarget-0.84%-0.21%-7.64%-10.88%-0.84%-0.21%-7.64%-10.88%-4.89%6.12%2.14%7.26%16.37%6.12%2.14%7.26%16.37%14.09%6.24%-1.85%-10.10%-7.64%-6.55%-5.76%-0.06%-0.54% LOW.N劳氏-12.10%-14.75%-8.45%-2.50%2.67%12.17%2.37%2.78%10.28%7.52%11.60%0.06%-0.54%--4.09%-0.94%-3.46%-0.49%-5.10%-0.02%-2.53%0.18%-7.26%-0.95%-2.13%-1.56%-4.49%-1.01%-3.02%-4.09%-0.94%-3.46%-0.49%-5.10%-0.02%-2.53%0.18%-7.26%-0.95%-2.13%-1.56%-4.49%-1.01%-3.02%-0.71%-0.71%0.56%3.23%0.72%4.80%0.70%8.07%0.96%0.92%-0.69%0.78%-3.22%0.32%-4.24%-0.56%AMZN.OW.N线上图表15：2024年4月轻工板块分品类出口金额及同比变化名称单位：亿美元24M4环比24Q124M324M224M123M1223M1123M1023M923M823M723M623M523M423M323M223M1弹簧床垫2.70.90.61.21.11.01.01.00.90.80.90.80.80.80.40.7 33.2%47.0%20.9%57.4%71.0%40.0%25.5%18.3%18.4%25.7%12.4%15.7%-2.9%-12.7%20.7%-4.2%-18.0%0.628.9%1.80.70.50.70.70.70.60.70.60.60.60.60.60.70.40.6 3.7%9.6%4.4%30.7%18.4%20.9%12.9%3.7%12.1%18.8%13.9%20.1%5.9%6.4%13.2%-12.3%-18.3%乳胶床垫乳胶床垫木框架沙发6.916.7%18.96.04.88.18.07.87.26.86.66.16.46.66.66.42.96.0 5.8%24.1%-6.3%65.8%36.1%28.8%24.6%18.2%14.7%11.0%-12.0%-9.8%-12.1%-7.2%-9.4%-39.1%-31.4%7.811.8%22.47.05.69.88.57.05.65.25.15.45.45.86.47.13.57.9 21.9%21.6%-1.2%60.6%24.8%9.5%-6.1%-21.0%-18.8%-16.3%-13.2%-21.7%-23.3%-18.1%-5.5%-37.6%-20.0%金属框架沙发金属框架沙发办公家具2.6 52.0%2.6 36.0%36.0%3.6-14.0%3.615.0%15.0%5.61.71.52.42.32.21.81.91.81.82.01.91.91.80.91.9 23.8%-3.9%74.6%26.9%21.4%36.7%11.2%14.6%16.5%5.9%9.9%3.1%22.2%20.5%-11.7%-0.4%9.34.22.13.03.93.73.43.53.13.03.03.03.13.21.52.91.0% -5.8%7.7%26.8%-12.7%-20.4% 22.7%28.8%45.7%4.1%1.0% -5.8%7.7%26.8%-12.7%-20.4%升降桌椅升降桌椅PVC地板4.4-3.4%4.64.44.24.64.74.64.52.24.40.4%-9.6%-30.9%-27.3%-21.0%-16.5%-22.5%4.4-3.4%4.64.44.24.64.74.64.52.24.40.4%-9.6%-30.9%-27.3%-21.0%-16.5%-22.5%-49.0%-31.3%保温杯保温杯1.7%3.13.091.4%4.926.7%4.021.2%4.221.4%3.94.2%4.222.8%4.124.7%3.13.091.4%4.926.7%4.021.2%4.221.4%3.94.2%4.222.8%4.124.7%11.020.7%4.219.4%3.71.53.826.6%-29.4%-4.5%-15.0% -2.3%-6.1%-4.9%-15.0%人造草坪171.5-5-17.2%-17.2% 0.0138.9-2.2%%703.4343.3138.9-2.2%%703.4343.3 -11.1%28.0% -39.2%4.5%4.5%-72.6%-14.5%-39.9%-9.0%-36.0%2.0%-18.2%-25.7%-40.1%17.3%-1.3%0.8-6.1%2.20.80.60.90.80.80.70.70.70.70.70.70.80.90.50.7-1.3%0.8-6.1%2.2%-15.1%14.8%15.5%-4.3%-9.7%-25.9%-17.9%-12.4%-15.3%-12.4%-6.5%12.3%33.4%7.9%-14.2%2.210.4%5.82.01.52.32.62.51.92.22.32.02.02.22.42.61.72.5 -10.2%-15.4%-23.7%-14.1%-7.8%-14.4%-17.1%-28.2%-13.6%-20.5%-37.9%-31.6%-35.2%-6.5%8.5%8.2%-37.4%探照灯及聚光灯探照灯及聚光灯97.825.897.825.828.543.5 9.5%-24.3%86.7%8.7%-4.5%-4.5%36.634.115.340.00.6%26.2%-39.6%-15.9%36.634.115.340.00.6%26.2%-39.6%-15.9%1.1%-6.3%-16.0%-12.6%-8.1%-11.1%-11.4%-4.8%卫浴陶瓷19.2%5.0-3.8%2.16.0 -55.4%-46.7%19.2%5.0-3.8%2.16.0 -55.4%-46.7%9.7%-16.3%109.6%4.7% 41.3%-19.6%-31.1%-44.2%-43.6%-34.5%-38.4%-40.7%9.7%-16.3%109.6%4.7%装饰原纸装饰原纸0.8-2.9%-11.2%2.20.80.60.80.80.70.60.80.80.70.80.80.90.90.60.8 -6.6%-8.5%11.8%6.0%-9.5%-15.3%-9.2%-0.1%-13.5%-29.1%-20.7%-7.7%4.4%51.6%39.6%-0.1%0.8-2.9%-11.2%零售狗食/猫食饲料1.29.6%3.11.10.81.21.11.01.01.11.01.11.11.01.11.10.70.91.29.6%10.9% 10.2%2.9%22.2%35.5%19.3%28.2%14.6%29.3%-3.9%-5.4%-3.6%-17.4%2.8%-9.6%-12.4%-33.2%10.9% 电动摩托车及脚踏车12.7%12.7%4.0-0.7%10.43.56.7%80.6%2.93.13.34.04.84.24.74.0-0.7%10.43.56.7%80.6%2.4%-21.0%-20.6%-21.0%-11.7%-26.8%-9.5%-7.0%9.0%-7.6%-42.4%-15.2%-15.2%全地形车1.59.5%3.61.40.91.3 15.3%9.2%19.5%0.8%1.20.81.21.6%-20.6%-20.8%1.11.59.5%3.61.40.91.3 15.3%9.2%19.5%0.8%1.20.81.21.6%-20.6%-20.8%41.1%0.6%-6.1%10.1%24.8%-10.8%-24.4%-18.7%-2.1%-15.3%41.1%高尔夫球车高尔夫球车0.816.2%1.70.70.40.60.50.50.40.70.80.80.80.80.70.40.40.5 10.0%13.7%2.2%16.6%42.1%18.7%-0.9%-8.7%1.7%13.4%-15.6%-4.4%27.9%28.5%0.3%-16.5%16.7%卫生巾及尿布1.4%2.8-10.8%2.62.81.1%8.22.82.23.23.12.9 -2.6%-13.1%10.5%18.1%6.5%3.3%4.7%2.72.72.72.73.23.22.02.70.6%-1.7%10.3%1.4%2.8-10.8%2.62.81.1%8.22.82.23.23.12.9 -2.6%-13.1%10.5%18.1%6.5%3.3%4.7%庭园用伞庭园用伞1.0-24.19.7%19.7%7%3.81.31.01.61.00.80.40.30.30.30.40.50.81.20.71.5 42.6%11.0%43.5%3.8%-5.3%-15.1%-40.4%-45.1%-27.6%-32.7%-31.6%-41.1%-46.9%-37.0%-43.8%-24.2%图表16：4月弹簧床垫出口额同比+33.2%98765432102023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0457.4%40.0%25.7%25.5%5.3%-0.4%-2.9%6.4%-12.7%-4.2%弹簧床垫出口额(亿美元)2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0457.4%40.0%25.7%25.5%5.3%-0.4%-2.9%6.4%-12.7%-4.2%71.0%41.8%33.2%20.7%-80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%图表17：4月弹簧床垫出口量同比+34.6%1,4001,2001,000800600400200054.0%52.5%58.3%52.6%42.2%37.1%36.9%17.9%9.7%26.7%26.9%4.7%2.4%2.1%-3.1%-7.6%-8.4%-65.3%弹簧床垫出口量(万台)同比54.0%52.5%58.3%52.6%42.2%37.1%36.9%17.9%9.7%26.7%26.9%4.7%2.4%2.1%-3.1%-7.6%-8.4%-65.3%72.0%72.0%65.0%34.6%37.7%40%20%2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0410图表18：4月乳胶床垫出口额同比+3.7%98765432102017201820192020202120222023449572023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-044.4%7.9%-8.1%-12.3%-15.8%-31.6%乳胶床垫出口额(亿美元)同比2017201820192020202120222023449572023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-044.4%7.9%-8.1%-12.3%-15.8%-31.6%31.1%30.7%30.7% %3.7%3.7%-18.3%40%-10%-20%-30%-40%图表20：4月弹簧床垫均价回升弹簧床垫(94041000):出口均价:当月值美元/个12010076.878076.876040200202019-042019-072020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-072022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072024-012024-04图表19：4月乳胶床垫出口量同比-9.7%乳胶床垫出口量(万台)同比4,0003,5003,0002,5002,00050002023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04..22.7%%%21.3%21.3%%-9.7%6.1%-9.7%-4.5%0.1%-4.5%-24.2%-13.0%-24.2%-53.9%-64.0%◆-53.9%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%图表21：4月乳胶床垫均价回升30'。。.。'24.562520151050202019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-102024-012024-04公司逐渐转移产能以应对反倾销，北美地区弹簧床垫出口占比从持续下降至21%。直至2024年至今，北美弹簧床垫出口额占比仅为6%，乳胶床垫略北美保持稳健增长。2024年美国第三轮反倾销即将落地，增加墨将进一步降低，中美周边国家以及拉美、非洲等新兴市场或将提供较强出口弹性。图表22：弹簧床垫出口额分地区占比变化100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%u亚洲u非洲u欧洲u拉丁美洲北美洲大6%4%6%6%4%6%7%3%2%6%7%3%2%9%2%8%3%8%3%4%29%29%36%3%41%45%36%3%41%45%9%3%2%2%2%2%2%2%5%2%5%2%5%2%5%2%2%2%6%6%2%2%56%54%55%53%52%53%56%54%55%53%52%48%42%37%33%31%33%2015201620172018201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd图表23：乳胶床垫出口额分地区占比变化图表24：弹簧床垫及乳胶床垫各地区出口额情况分地区（亿美元）2015201620172018201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd弹簧床垫出口总额3.914.275.027.127.098.008.178.5710.003.762.63亚洲1.651.601.642.213.723.804.244.785.541.991.42非洲0.130.090.110.150.140.150.170.180.260.090.08欧洲0.180.210.300.410.661.201.150.951.560.640.37拉丁美洲0.090.070.100.120.150.230.320.280.440.170.10北美洲1.121.522.053.231.150.650.750.640.560.220.15大洋洲0.750.780.821.011.271.981.541.741.650.650.52乳胶床垫出口总额5.696.168.379.476.475.457.086.477.082.452.18亚洲1.331.371.301.542.202.132.802.833.021.041.00非洲0.060.030.040.050.040.060.070.080.090.040.03欧洲0.850.850.830.851.191.602.131.622.010.700.59拉丁美洲0.050.040.050.030.050.070.130.140.220.110.06北美洲3.233.655.856.682.681.141.431.161.140.360.30大洋洲0.190.220.300.310.310.450.530.640.600.200.20图表25：弹簧床垫及乳胶床垫各地区出口额同比增速情况同比增速201620172018201920202021202220232024ytd弹簧床垫出口额同比9%17%42%0%13%2%5%17%43%亚洲-3%2%35%69%2%12%13%16%40%非洲-29%22%33%-6%5%14%8%42%17%欧洲18%42%37%63%81%-4%-17%64%75%拉丁美洲-14%35%16%26%56%41%-13%59%75%北美洲36%35%57%-64%-44%17%-15%-13%45%大洋洲3%6%23%25%56%-22%13%-5%24%乳胶床垫出口额同比8%36%13%-32%-16%30%-9%9%12%亚洲3%-6%19%43%-3%32%7%4%非洲-41%35%13%-21%40%24%12%22%25%欧洲0%-3%3%40%34%33%-24%24%19%拉丁美洲-23%38%-36%47%52%84%13%54%87%北美洲13%60%14%-60%-57%25%-19%-2%19%大洋洲16%40%4%43%17%22%-7%2%12图表26：4月休闲沙发出口额同比+5.8%休闲沙发出口额(亿美元)同比100908070605040302002023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0465.8%28.8%5.8%-.2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0465.8%28.8%5.8%-.-39.1%-31.4%%40%20%图表28：4月功能沙发出口额同比+21.9%功能沙发出口额(亿美元)同比908070605040302002023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04 -16.3%%.24.8%9.5%...2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04 -16.3%%.24.8%9.5%...-1.2%-%40%20%图表27：4月休闲沙发出口量同比+10.6%休闲沙发出口量(万套)同比10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00002023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04-0.1%/..43.2%36.9%40.5%%%2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04-0.1%/..43.2%36.9%40.5%%%35%-8.9%.280%60%20%0%-20%-40%图表29：4月功能沙发出口量同比+23.1%功能沙发出口量(万套)同比24,00022,00020,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00002023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04.29.2%30.7%30.7%.%//4.0%4.0%.2.8%-2.4%6.6%-2.4%- -22.3%40%20%13图表30：休闲沙发仍以北美为主，亚洲占比逐步提升亚洲非洲欧洲拉丁美洲北美洲大洋洲100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%39%39%36%39%39%41%42%44%45%41%42%44%3%20%3%20%4%20%2%3%3%22%2%3%3%22%2%24%4%21%2%23%21%18%21%2%2%29%29%29%30%29%29%29%22%201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd图表31：功能沙发北美、欧洲和亚洲占比较大100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%亚洲非洲欧洲拉丁美洲北美洲大洋洲27%26%27%27%30%30%32%27%26%27%27%30%30%2%3%3%3%2%3%3%3%3%2%3%3%30%27%29%30%27%30%33%30%34%31%34%4%8%7%4%8%4%4%4%6%4%4%4%33%32%31%29%29%26%26%33%32%31%29%29%26%201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd图表32：休闲沙发各地区出口额情况分地区201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd休闲沙发出口总额（亿美元）77.1776.3097.1278.3977.2325.8621.80亚洲17.2818.2321.8922.4022.087.666.31非洲1.551.281.721.101.170.400.26欧洲16.1016.5220.2213.7515.545.374.45拉丁美洲2.452.043.632.432.801.010.67北美洲34.9232.3442.7132.2129.919.348.46大洋洲4.875.906.956.505.722.071.65功能沙发出口总额（亿美元）58.3375.0490.1982.6172.7722.3918.41亚洲16.9825.0523.1023.9022.996.934.87非洲2.593.333.373.615.711.571.06欧洲19.2522.4330.5724.5019.916.605.65拉丁美洲1.751.692.682.422.540.620.46北美洲15.6719.5626.8325.0819.366.125.97大洋洲2.082.983.643.112.260.550.4114图表33：休闲及功能沙发各地区出口占比20202021202220232024ytd休闲沙发出口额同比-1%27%-19%-1%19%19%亚洲5%20%2%-1%21%21%非洲-17%35%-36%7%53%53%3%22%-32%13%21%21%拉丁美洲-17%78%-33%15%52%52%北美洲-7%32%-25%-7%10%大洋洲21%18%-6%-12%25%25%功能沙发出口额同比29%20%-8%-12%22%22%亚洲47%-8%3%-4%42%42%非洲28%7%58%49%49%17%36%-20%-19%17%拉丁美洲-3%58%-10%5%35%35%北美洲25%37%-7%-23%2%2%大洋洲43%22%-15%-27%32%32%前库存逐渐回归正常水平。2024年4月卫浴陶瓷出口额4.98图表34：4月卫浴陶瓷出口额同比-3.8%卫浴陶瓷出口额(亿美元)同比904002023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0438%%42.41.3% .2023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0438%%42.41.3% .-19.6%-.-16.3%--34.5%-40.7%-467%%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%图表35：4月卫浴陶瓷出口量同比+18.2%卫浴陶瓷出口量(百万千克)同比2,00040002023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0498.3%55.8%.13.4%3%55--2.2.%5%5%%%%-6.1%2.5%%-6.1%.-30-309% . 120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%设备(69109000)加总而得，与出口额类目(6910)或有口比最大的市场，2024年同比增速实现转正；拉15图表36：卫浴陶瓷出口亚洲占比最大100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%亚洲非洲欧洲拉丁美洲100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%14%14%22%8%18%7%8%7%49%40%14%6%14%7%12%9%6%13%7%7%50%53%52%46%51%48%51%22%48%48%12%16%9%9%8%8%8%7%7%7%7%2015201620172018201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd图表37：卫浴陶瓷分地区增速情况同比同比201620172018201920202021202220232024ytd出口额同比-33%41%28%43%13%5%-5%-33%18%亚洲-21%42%29%47%-7%-36%非洲-36%64%27%40%36%-1%0%-30%-31%欧洲-46%66%32%62%-10%-26%-18%32%拉丁美洲-67%66%50%40%3%45%-34%-30%26%北美洲-34%20%20%24%-8%-36%34%大洋洲-2%51%37%-11%-35%26%图表38：卫浴陶瓷各地区出口额情况分地区2015201620172018201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd出口总额（亿美元）45.2230.1442.5054.5777.8287.5591.6887.4358.93亚洲20.3426.1638.3645.0941.7545.9229.538.54非洲3.073.244.105.767.807.747.725.407.514.026.698.808.753.022.29拉丁美洲5.262.854.296.006.188.955.894.15北美洲6.677.979.098.933.202.38大洋洲2.132.503.423.753.342.170.760.60高基数影响，同比略有回落，4月继续保持高增图表39：4月办公家具出口金额同比+36.00%办公家具出口金额(亿美元)同比74.64%74.64%21.40%36.63% 9.93%--3.89%80%80% 70% 60% 50% 40%00%30% 20%10%26.91%26.91%6%6%.65%1.65%10%2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04%0-13.16%2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04%0-13.16%图表40：4月升降桌椅出口金额同比+15.03%升降桌椅出口金额(亿美元)同比40502023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012023-012023-022023-032023-0420