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INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIESFORUTILITY-SCALESOLARAND
WINDAREAS
ELSALVADORZONINGASSESSMENT
©IRENA2024
Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial.
ISBN:978-92-9260-603-9
Citation:IRENA(2024),Investmentopportunitiesforutility-scalesolarandwindareas:ElSalvador,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.
AboutIRENA
TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)servesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,arepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledge,andadriverofactiononthegroundtoadvancethetransformationoftheglobalenergysystem.Anintergovernmentalorganisationestablishedin2011,IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.
Acknowledgements
IRENAwouldliketoacknowledgethedataprovidersfortheGlobalAtlasforRenewableEnergy,inparticulartheEnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP)oftheWorldBank,theEuropeanCentreforMedium-RangeWeatherForecasts,theEuropeanSpaceAgency,theNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration,theOakRidgeNationalLaboratory,theOpenStreetMapFoundation,Solargis,theTechnicalUniversityofDenmark,andtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme.ThemethodologyusedinthisstudyoriginatedfrompriorIRENAstudiesin2013and2016andhasbeenupdatedin2023.
IRENAwouldliketothankAidaAntonietaFloresAcosta,LuisCastaneda,VíctorSagastume,AdonayUrrutia,JuanCarlosGuevarafromtheGeneralDirectorateofEnergy,HydrocarbonsandMines(DGEHM);AnaMaríaOrellanafromtheExecutiveCommissionfortheLempaHydropower;SalvadorMontesfromtheOrganismodeInspecciónAcreditado(OIA);andIsaíasChafoyafromINVERLECSolarEnergy.
ThezoninganalysiswasconductedbySibghatUllahandMohammedNababaunderthesupervisionofImenGherboudjwhoauthoredthereport.
Contributingdevelopers:ImenGherboudj,MohammedNababa,JoelSilva(consultant),AbdulmalikOrichaAli(ex-IRENA),JacintoEstima(ex-IRENA),GeraldChamKpu(ex-IRENA)andSibghatUllah.
Furtheracknowledgement:JoseToron,CamiloRamirezIsaza,NatalieLedanois(consultant),RaghadElSalah(ex-IRENA)andSujanAdhikari.
TechnicalreviewwasprovidedbyPaulKomor.PublicationsandeditorialsupportwereprovidedbyFrancisFieldandStephanieClarke.ThereportwaseditedbyJonGorvett,withdesignprovidedbyPhoneixDesignAid.
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Thedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialsfeaturedhereinareprovidedonan“asis”basisforinformationalpurposesonly,withoutanyconditions,warrantiesorundertakings,eitherexpressorimplied,fromIRENA,itsofficialsandagents,includingbutnotlimitedtowarrantiesofaccuracy,completenessandfitnessforaparticularpurposeoruseofsuchcontent.TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA,norisitanendorsementofanyproject,productorserviceprovider.ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries.
ELSALVADORZONINGASSESSMENT
CONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS 5
EXECUTIVESUMMARY 6
1.INTRODUCTION 8
2.THEZONINGASSESSMENT 10
2.1.Definingtheassessmentcriteria 10
2.2.Mappingthesuitabilityindex 13
2.3.Clusteringofsuitableareas 16
2.4.Calculatingtechno-economicattributes 17
2.5.Identifyingfavourablezones 18
3.DATASCOPEANDQUALITY 19
3.1.Solarresourcedata 19
3.2.Windresourcedata 20
3.3.Meteorologicaldata 21
3.4.Topography 22
3.5.Populationdistribution 22
3.6.Transmissionlinenetwork 23
3.7.Roadnetwork 23
3.8.Protectedareas 24
3.9.Landcover 25
3.10.Ancillarydatasets 26
4.ASSESSMENTRESULTS 27
4.1.Favourablezones 27
4.2.Techno-economicattributes 28
5.CONCLUSION 36
REFERENCES 37
|3
INVESTMENTOPPORTUNITIESFORUTILITY-SCALESOLARANDWINDAREAS
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FIGURES
Figure1Zoningassessmentmethod 10
Figure2Suitabilityassessmentmethod 14
Figure3AverageannualglobalhorizontalsolarIrradiationinElSalvador 20
Figure4AnnualaveragewindspeedinElSalvador 21
Figure5TopographyofElSalvador 22
Figure6ElSalvador’stransmissionlinenetwork 23
Figure7ElSalvador’sroadnetwork 24
Figure8ProtectedareasinElSalvador 25
Figure9LandcoverinElSalvador 26
Figure10Landsuitabilityindexwiththemostpromisingzonesforutility-scalesolarPVprojects 27
Figure11Landsuitabilityindexwiththemostpromisingzonesforutility-scaleonshorewindprojects.28
Figure12Capacityfactorsofthemostpromisingzonesforutility-scalesolarPVprojects 29
Figure13Capacityfactorsofthemostpromisingzonesforutility-scaleonshorewindprojects 30
Figure14LCOEofthemostpromisingzonesforutility-scalesolarPVprojects 30
Figure15LCOEofthemostpromisingzonesforutility-scaleonshorewindprojects 31
Figure16Distanceofthemostpromisingzonesforutility-scalesolarPVprojectstothenearest
transmissionlines 31
Figure17Distanceofthemostpromisingzonesforutility-scaleonshorewindprojectstothe
nearesttransmissionlines 32
Figure18Maximumdevelopmentpotentialforutility-scalesolarPVandonshorewindprojects
perregion 32
Figure19Cumulativesolarandwindpotentialvs.zonalcapacityrange 33
TABLES
Table1SuitabilityassessmentapproachforsolarPVandwindprojects:Scoringsystem,lower
andupperthresholds,andassignedweightsforeachcriterion 16
Table2Assumptionsontechnicalparametersforzoningassessment 17
Table3Technologyspecificationsandinfrastructurecosts 17
Table4Zoningassessmentrequirementsandresults 34
BOXES
Box1TheGlobalAtlasforRenewableEnergyInitiative 9
Box2Thetypicalmeteorologicalyear 13
ELSALVADORZONINGASSESSMENT
|5
ABBREVIATIONS
AC
alternativecurrent
IUCN
InternationalUnionforConservationof
Ah
amperehours
Nature
AHP
analytichierarchyprocess
JICA
JapanInternationalCooperationAgency
CF
capacityfactor
km
kilometre
C-FDDA
climatefour-dimensionaldata
km2
squarekilometre
assimilation
kWh
kilowatthour
CFSR
climateforecastingsystemreanalysis
kWh/m2
kilowatthourspersquaremetre
CNE
NationalEnergyCouncil
LBNL
LawrenceBerkeleyNational
CSP
concentratedsolarpower
Laboratory
DC
directcurrent
LCOE
levelisedcostofenergy
DGEHM
GeneralDirectorateofEnergy,
m
metre
HydrocarbonsandMines
m2
squaremetre
DHI
diffusehorizontalirradiation
m/s
metrespersecond
DNI
directnormalirradiation
MERRA-2
Modern-EraRetrospectiveAnalysisfor
DTU
TechnicalUniversityofDenmark
ResearchandApplications,Version2
ECMWF
EuropeanCentreforMedium-Range
MCC
maximumconcentrationcapacity
WeatherForecasts
MCDM
multi-criteriadecisionmaking
EFC
equivalentfirmcapacity
MW
megawatt
ELCC
effectiveloadcarryingcapability
MWh
megawatthour
ERA-5
EuropeanCentreforMedium-
MW/km2
megawattpersquarekilometre
RangeWeatherForecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis5th
NASA
NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration
ESA
EuropeanSpaceAgency
ORNL
OakRidgeNationalLaboratory
ESMAP
EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram
OSM
OpenStreetMap
EUMETSATEuropeanOrganisationforthe
PV
photovoltaic
ExploitationofMeteorologicalSatellites
RRA
RenewableReadinessAssessment
FSFinkelstein-Schafer
SAR
syntheticapertureradar
GADMGlobalAdministrativeAreas
SAW
simpleadditiveweighting
GCCGulfCo-operationCouncil
SODA
solarradiationdata
GEOSGoddardEarthObservingSystem
SRTM
ShuttleRadarTopographyMission
GHIglobalhorizontalirradiation
TMY
typicalmeteorologicalyear
GISgeographicinformationsystem
UAE
UnitedArabEmirates
GMAOGlobalModellingandAssimilationOffice
UNEP
UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme
GWGigawatt
USD
UnitedStatesdollar
GWAGlobalWindAtlas
WAsP
WindAtlasAnalysisandApplication
IECInternationalElectrotechnical
Program
Commission
WDPA
WorldDatabaseforProtectedAreas
IRENAInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency
WCMC
WorldConservationMonitoringCentre
INVESTMENTOPPORTUNITIESFORUTILITY-SCALESOLARANDWINDAREAS
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3
4
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
ThisreportsummarisesresultsfromananalysisconductedbyIRENAtomapthosezonesacrossElSalvadorthatarehighlyattractivewhenitcomestoinvestmentinthedeploymentofutility-scalesolarphotovoltaic(PV)andonshorewindprojects,whilealsomappingthosezones’correspondingtechno-economicparameters.
Thestudyaimsto:i)providespatialinformationonrenewableenergypotential,alongwithinsightsintothecountry’stotaldevelopmentpotentialwhenitcomestoadoptingsolarPVandonshorewindpower;ii)informnationalinfrastructureplanningacrosstheelectricitysupplyvaluechain,spanninggeneration,transmission,anddistribution;andiii)providecriticalinputforhigh-levelpolicymodelsthataimtoensureuniversalelectricitysupplyandsupportthelong-termabatementofclimatechange.
Thisanalysishasbeenconductedviaarigorousandinteractiveprocess,involvingofficialrepresentativesfromtheGeneralDirectorateofEnergy,HydrocarbonsandMines(DGEHM),inordertogivedueconsiderationtothelocalcontext.Theanalysisreliesonhigh-qualityresourceandmeteorologicaldata(bothannualaverageandhourly),whilealsotakingintoaccountancillarydataonlocalpopulationdensity,protectedareas,topography,landuse,powertransmissionlinenetworks,roadnetworks,costs(capitalandoperational)andtechnologicalparameters.Thesecriteriahavebeenadaptedtothecountry-specificrenewableenergystrategy,thusallowingtheidentificationofthezonesmostpromisingforprioritisationintherenewabledeploymentplan.
Thezoningapproachforautility-scalerenewableenergyprojectdevelopmentconsistsoffourmainsteps:
Anassessmentismadeofthe
technicalrenewableenergypotential
ofeverysquarekilometre(km2)ofa
countryorregion,basedonselected
criteria.Thesecriteriaare:resource
quality;transmissionlinenetworks;
roadnetworks;topography;
protectedareas;populationdensity;
Thecapacityfactor,energy
output,levelisedcostofenergy
(LCOE)andotherfactorsare
calculated.Theseexpressthe
capabilityofeachzone,from
thetechnicalandeconomic
perspectives,tohostsolarPVor
onshorewindprojects.
andlandcover.
1
CALCULATING
IDENTIFYING
FAVOURABLE
ZONES
MAPPING
CLUSTERINGZONES
TECHNO-
THESUITABILITY
ECONOMIC
INDEX
ATTRIBUTES
2
Highlysuitablecontiguouscells
aregroupedintodefinitive
zones(orclusters)basedona
definedcut-offsuitabilityscore
andonthemaximumcapacity
ofeachzone.
Themostpromisingzonestobe
prioritisedinordertoenablethe
bestinvestmentenvironment
areselectedbyevaluatingand
analysingthecalculatedzone
attributes.
ELSALVADORZONINGASSESSMENT
|7
ThisstudyfindsthatasignificantportionofElSalvador’slandareaishighlysuitableforsolarPVandonshorewinddevelopment.However,themostpromisingzonestoprioritiseintherenewabledeploymentplanareconcentratedalongexistingandplannedtransmissionlinesandroadnetworks.
ONSHOREWIND
Maximumdevelopmentpotential:
0.24GW
Installation
density
of:
Maximum
concentrationcapacitiesof:
Land
utilisation
factorof:
15
5000
50%
MW/km2
MWperzone
Thestudysuggestsamaximumdevelopmentpotentialofapproximately12.2gigawatts(GW)forsolarPVand0.24GWforonshorewindprojects.Thistakesintoconsiderationinstallationdensityof100megawattspersquarekilometre(MW/km2)and15MW/km2forsolarPVandonshorewind,respectively,alongwithmaximumconcentrationcapacitiesof5000MWperzoneforbothsolarPVandonshorewind,givenalandutilisationfactorof50%.Theutilisationfactorwasdeterminedbasedonthepremisethatnotallofthesuitableareaiseligibleforpowerproductionduetocompetinglanduses,suchasagricultureandheritageprotection;thisisexploredfurtherinsection2.
Installation
density
of:
Maximum
concentrationcapacitiesof:
Land
utilisation
factorof:
100
5000
50%
MW/km2
MWperzone
Maximumdevelopmentpotential:
12.2GW
SOLARPV
Thesefindingsareintendedtopromptfurtheractioninidentifyingspecificsitesforanin-depthassessmentusinghighresolutionspatialandtemporaldata.Thelimitationsofthisstudymustalsobetakenintoaccount,however,specificallyintermsofthesensitivityoftheresultsbothtotheassumptionsmadeinsettingthethresholdsforeachcriterionandtotheunderlyingqualityofthedatasets.Non-technicalissues,suchaslandownership,mayalsoinfluencetheselectionofareastoconsiderforfurtherevaluation.
PotentialsiteswithintheseareascouldbenefitfromthesiteassessmentserviceoftheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA).Thisserviceoffersapre-feasibilityassessmentthatdeterminesthetechnicalandfinancialviabilityofsitesforsolarPVandwindprojectdevelopment.Inthis,itusesdownscaledtimeseriesresourcedata,sitespecificcharacteristics,technology-specificparametersandrepresentativeprojectcostdata.
INVESTMENTOPPORTUNITIESFORUTILITY-SCALESOLARANDWINDAREAS
8|
1.INTRODUCTION
ThisstudywascarriedoutattherequestofthegovernmentofElSalvador.ItisanextensionofthesupporttheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)providedthroughtheRenewableEnergyReadinessAssessment(RRA)processsince2020(IRENA,2020).
Thestudy–azoningassessment–allowszones(orclusters)thatarehighlyattractivetoinvestmentinrenewableprojectdevelopmenttobespatiallymapped,alongwiththeircorrespondingtechno-economicparameters.
SuchanassessmentcanassisttheDGEHMinidentifyingthebestzonesfornewutility-scalesolarphotovoltaic(PV)andonshorewinddevelopmentandforplanningtransmissionandgenerationexpansion.Italsohelpscreateleast-costenergymasterplans,whichcanreducetheriskofinvestinginrenewableprojectsandsecuresustainablesourcesofelectricitygeneration.
Thesecondsectionofthereportdescribesindetailthemethodology,theunderlyingassumptionsandtherequirementsforconductingazoningassessmentforutility-scalepowerplantdeployment.
Themethodologyforidentifyingthebestzonesforrenewableprojectsisbasedon:
i.Amappingofthetechnicalrenewableenergypotentialofeverysquarekilometreofland,basedonresourcequality,transmissionlinenetwork,roadnetwork,topography,protectedareas,populationdensityandlanduse.
ii.Theclusteringofzoneswithhightechnicalpotentialbasedonspecificassumptionsrelatedtothecut-offsuitabilityscore,maximumconcentrationcapacityandlandutilisationfactor.
iii.Thecalculationoftechno-economicparameterscharacterisingthezonesbasedonthetechnicalequipmentspecificationsandprojectcostestimates.
Thethirdsectionofthisreportexplainsthedatasourcesforeachcriterionandtheassumptionsusedtoprovideatailor-madeanalysisforthecountry.Itincludesspecificdetailson:thespatialandtemporalresolutions;theextentofvalidation;andtherecommendeduseforeachdataset,givenitsstrength.
Theresultsofthisstudyareincludedinthefourthsectionandconsistof:i)landtechnicalrenewableenergypotential(suitabilitymaps)forsolarPVandonshorewind;ii)zonesofhighinvestmentattractiveness,withtheirtechno-economicparameters,suchasinstalledcapacity,hourlyandannualenergygeneration,capacityfactor,levelisedcostofelectricity(LCOE),anddistancestoinfrastructuresuchasroadandtransmissionlines;andiii)thecountry’smaximumdevelopmentpotential.
Thereportconcludeswithasummaryofthekeyfindingsoftheassessmentandpresentsrecommendationsforusebylocalauthorities.
ELSALVADORZONINGASSESSMENT
|9
Box1
TheGlobalAtlasforRenewableEnergyInitiative
TheGlobalAtlasforRenewableEnergyisaninitiativedevelopedbyIRENAinpartnershipwiththeCleanEnergyMinisterialMultilateralSolarandWindWorkingGrouptoadvancethedeploymentofrenewables.
Theinitiativeassistspolicymakers,projectdevelopers,investors,andtheglobalcommunitybyprovidingasingleonlinerepository,namelythe
GlobalAtlasplatform
,thatassemblesandcollatesover1000high-qualityrenewableresources(solar,wind,bioenergy,geothermal,hydropowerandmarine)andsupplementarydatasets(transmissionandroadnetwork,landcover,topographyandprotectedareas)tounderstandtherenewablepotentialinanyregionorcountry.Thesedatasetsserveasinputstothedevelopmentoftheonlinetoolsandcountry-levelanalyses,including:
•The
BioenergySimulator
,aweb-basedapplicationdevelopedtoestimatepotentialbioenergyandplanbioenergydevelopmentconsideringnumerouscombinationsofarea,biomassresource,technologyandend-use.Thesimulatoraimstoraiseawarenessonmodernbioenergyproductionoptionstohelpmeetglobalclimategoals,decarbonisetheworld’senergysystemandensureaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainableenergyforall.
•The
SolarCitySimulator
,aweb-basedapplicationdevelopedtoacceleratethedeploymentofrooftopsolarphotovoltaic(PV)systemsinselectedcities,suchasChongliinChina,UlaanbaatarinMongolia,PortLouisinMauritius,BurgunjinNepal,CastriesinSaintLucia,VictoriainSeychellesandKaseseinUganda.TheSimulatorassessesrooftopsolarPVpotential(electricityproduction,cashflowandsocio-environmentalbenefits)bytestingdifferentpolicyinstruments,incentiveschemesandinstallationscenariosthatcouldleadtopotentialeconomicsavingsandsocial-environmentalbenefits.
•Thezoningassessment,aGIS-basedmulticriteriaanalysisthatidentifiesthefavourablezoneswithinacountryfordevelopingutility-scalesolarPVorwindprojects.Themethodologycombineshighqualityresourcedatawithinfrastructureandlandfeaturesrelateddata–includingroadandtransmissionlinenetworks,topography,protectedareasandpopulationdensity–toidentifythezonesofhighdegreeoffeasibilitytodevelopsolarandonshorewindprojects.Thesezonesarefurthercharacterisedwithattributes,whichincludepotentialinstalledcapacity,hourlyenergygenerationprofiles,distancestotransmissionandroadinfrastructure,andlevelisedcostofelectricity(LCOE).Thisserviceaimstosupportcountriesindevelopingandimplementingtheirnationalenergymasterplan.
•Thesiteassessment,acost-effectivepre-feasibilityanalysisdevelopedtosupportcountriesinfindingeconomicallyviablesitesforsolar(photovoltaic,parabolictroughcollector,centralreceiversystemandlinearFresnel)andwindprojectdevelopment.Theservicereliesonsite-specificresourceprofiles,industrystandardenergyyieldandfinancialassessmentmethodologiestoestablisharangeoftariffsandlevelisedcostsofasiteforpotentialinvestmentongroundmeasurementsandsubsequentdevelopment.Throughthisservice,theAgencyhasassistedlocalauthorities-ministriesandpublicutilities-inseveralcountriesinAfrica,LatinAmericaandsmallislanddevelopingstates(SIDS),intheselectionandscreeningofmorethan140promisingsitesforsolarandwindpowerprojects.
INVESTMENTOPPORTUNITIESFORUTILITY-SCALESOLARANDWINDAREAS
10|
2.THEZONINGASSESSMENT
Zoningforutility-scalerenewableprojectsaimstodeliverarefinedmappingofdevelopmentpotentialatascalethatdelimitsthezonesofhighinvestmentattractiveness(orcost-effectiveness).Itdoesthisbyconsidering:highrenewableresourcepotential;proximitytothenecessaryinfrastructure;thecurrentfinancialcontext;andareaswheretherewouldbealowenvironmentalandsocialimpact.
Suchanassessmenthelpsauthoritiesmakegoodstrategicdecisionswhenplanninggenerationandtransmissionexpansion.Thiscanreducetherisksofinvestinginrenewableprojectsandsecuresustainablesourcesofelectricitygeneration.
Thezoningapproach(Figure1)consistsof:
i.definingtheassessmentcriteria;
ii.mappingthesuitabilityindexforprojectdevelopmentatthecountrylevel;
iii.clusteringsuitableadjacentareas;
iv.calculatingthetechno-economicattributesforeachzoneidentified;and
v.identifyingcost-effectivefavourablezones.
2.1.DEFININGTHEASSESSMENTCRITERIA
Azoninganalysisreliesonrenewableresourceandmeteorologicaldatasets,combinedwithtechno-economicandsocio-environmentalcriteria.
Figure1Zoningassessmentmethod
•Renewableresourceand
meteorologicaldata
•Techno-economiccriteria
•Socio-environmentalcriteria
•Highsuitabilityindex
•Maximuminstallable
capacity
•Minimumzonesize
•LowLCoE
•Highcapacityfactor
•Closebyroadandtransmissionlines
1
CALCULATING
DEFININGTHE
ASSESSMENT
ECONOMIC
CRITERIA
ATTRIBUTES
4
•Installedcapacity
MAPPINGTHE
SUITABILITY
INDEX
IDENTIFYING
FAVOURABLE
ZONES
•AGIS-basedmulti-criteriadecision
CLUSTERINGTHEZONES
THETECHNO-
5
3
2
making(MCDM)approach
•Pairwisecomparisonbetweencriteria
•Weightedlinearcombinationofcriteria
•Generationprofile
•Levelisedcostof
electricity(LCoE)
ELSALVADORZONINGASSESSMENT
|11
2.1.1.Renewableresourceandmeteorologicaldata
Renewableresourcedata,suchassolarirradiance,orwindspeedataspecificheight,alongwithmeteorologicaldata,providethemostimportantinformationneededinevaluatingthefeasibilityofhostingarenewableprojectinaparticularzone.Suchdatamakeitpossibletodeterminethedevelopmentcapacityandhourlygenerationprofilesofsuchprojects.
ThesolarirradiancecomponentaffectingtheoutputofPVcellsisglobalhorizontalirradiance.Thisiscommonlycalculatedusingeitherphysically-basedorstatistically-basedapproachesthatrequirehightemporalandspatialresolutionsatelliteorgroundmeasurements.
Thelong-termaverageannualglobalhorizontalirradiation(GHI)at1kmto3kmgridcellresolution–asgivenintheWorldBank’sGlobalSolarAtlasandTransvalor’sSODAsolardatasets,whichcovermorethan20yearsofhourlyhistoricaldata–areusedtoproducethefeasibilityindexforhostingarenewableproject.Inaddition,thehourlyhistoricalglobalhorizontalirradiancedataataround25kmgridcellresolution–asgivenintheModern-EraRetrospectiveAnalysisforResearchandApplicationsVersion2(MERRA-2)datasetdevelopedbytheNationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration(NASA)–areusedtocalculatethegenerationprofileofapotentialsolarPVpowerplant(seesection3.1).
Windspeeddataarecommonlyderivedusingweatherresearchandforecastingmodelsanddataassimilationtechniques.Theseareusedinordertoachievethemostrealisticdescriptionofweatheroccurrencesinwhatisknownas‘reanalysis’data.Thelong-termannualaveragewindspeedata1kmto3kmgridcellresolution,suchasthatgivenintheglobalwindatlasoftheTechnicalUniversityofDenmark(DTU)andinVortex’swindmaps,coverslong-termhourlyhistoricaldatasetsatdifferentheights.Thesedataareusedtoproducethefeasibilityindexforhostingrenewableprojects.Conversely,thehourlyhistoricalwinddataataround25kmgridcellresolution,suchasthatgivenbytheEuropeanCentreforMedium-RangeWeatherForecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis5thModern-Era(ERA5),areusedtocalculatethegenerationprofilefromwindpowerplants(seesection3.2).
Othermeteorologicaldataarealsocommonlyderivedusingweatherresearchandforecastingmodelsanddataassimilationtechniquestoproducereanalysisdata.Thesedata,suchasthehistoricallong-termairtemperatureandpressurerecordedintheMERRA-2andERA5reanalysisdatasets,areimportanttocalculatethehourlyandannualpotentialenergygenerationofarenewableprojectsite(seesection2.4).Suchevaluationiscommonlyconductedconsideringtypicalmeteorologicalyear(TMY)data,whichrepresentthemostfrequentweatherconditionsatagivenlocation(Capacity4dev,EU,2011)(seesection3.3).
2.1.2.Techno-economiccriteria
Techno-economiccriteriaareofgreatimportanceinestimatingthefeasibilityofhostingarenewableprojectinagivenareaandforcalculatingthehourlygenerationprofilesofthezonesidentified.Thesecriteriainclude:landfeatures;slopeandelevation;infrastructure,suchastransmissionlinesandroadnetworks;land-useconstraints,suchasthesuitabilitycut-offvalue,themaximumconcentrationcapacity,installationdensityandthelandutilisationfactor;renewableequipmentspecifications;andprojectcosts.
•Thelandelevationandslopehaveaninfluenceontheequipmentinstallation.Areaswithsteepslopesandhighelevationsposechallengesintermsofsiteaccessforconstructionandmaintenance,whichincreasesthecosts.Thecharacteristicsoftheseareasalsoaffectthemountingoftheequipment,oftenleadingtopoorresourceextraction.Theelevationisderivedfromstereoimagepairsusingsoftphotogrammetry,orfromradardatausingsyntheticapertureradar(SAR)interferometrymethodology.Slope,meanwhile,isderiveddirectlyfromelevation.
INVESTMENTOPPORTUNITIESFORUTILITY-SCALESOLARANDWINDAREAS
12|
•Proximitytoexistingorplannedinfrastructu
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