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UNITEDNATIONSCONFERENCEONTRADEANDDEVELOPMENT
Aworldofdebt
REPORT2024
Agrowingburdentoglobalprosperity
1
2
3
4
Contents
Globalpublicdebt
keepsrising.
Thecostofexternal
publicdebtremainshigh.
Peoplepaytheprice.
Acallforactiontofinancesustainabledevelopment.
2
Globalpublicdebt
keepsrising.
33
$97
trillion
50
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Publicdebtreachesrecordlevelsin2023
97000000000000
US$
100
Globalpublicdebt
75
$51
trillion
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024).
Note:FiguresrepresentnominalvaluesincurrentUS$.Publicdebtreferstogeneralgovernmentdomesticandexternaldebtthroughoutthedocument.Generalgovernmentconsistsofcentral,stateandlocalgovernmentsandthesocialsecurityfundscontrolledbytheseunits.
4
Publicdebtgrowstwiceasfastindevelopingcountries
Index:Outstandingpublicdebtin2010=100
350
300
250
200
150
100
2010201220142016201820202022
Developing
countries
Developing
countries
excl.China
Developed
countries
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024).
5
Almostathirdofglobalpublicdebtisowedbydevelopingcountries
PublicdebtinUS$billions(2023)
Germany
2855
Developedcountries
France
3354
Developingregions
AsiaandOceania
LatinAmericaand
theCaribbean
UnitedStatesofAmerica
33417
Africa
Egypt
378
Japan
10632
Mexico
950
Brazil
1841
China
India
2956
14773
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024).
6
Althoughpublicdebtisgrowing
inallregions,onlyinAfricaitis
growingfasterthanGDP
PublicdebtasashareofGDP-Medianpercountrygroup
(percentage)
Developing
countries
80
Africa
Asia
andOceania
LatinAmerica
andtheCaribbean
60
40
20
0
20102023201020232010202320102023
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024).
Note:Themedianrepresentsthevaluethatliesatthemidpointofthedatadistribution.
7
LatinAmerica
andtheCaribbean
AsiaandOceania
Africa
Morecountriesfacehighdebtburdens,especiallyinAfrica
Numberofdevelopingcountrieswithpublicdebtexceeding60%ofGDP
80
60
40
20
2010201220142016201820202022
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024).
8
9
Thecostof
externalpublicdebt
remainshigh.
92.4
71.5
28.4
19.2
Developingcountries’externalpublicdebtindicatorsreturnedtopre-COVIDlevels
Medianfordevelopingcountries(percentage)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2010201220142016201820202022
Externalpublicdebt
asashareofexports
Externalpublicdebt
asashareofGDP
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024).Note:ExternalpublicdebtreferstoexternalPublicandPubliclyGuaranteed(PPG)debt.Themedianrepresentsthevaluethatliesatthemidpointofthedatadistribution.
10
8
6
6.3
3.8
Yet,externaldebtserviceburdensremainhigh
Medianfordevelopingcountries(percentage)
10
8.8
5
4
2
0
2010201220142016201820202022
Externalpublicdebtservice
relativetogovernment
revenues
Externalpublicdebtservice
relativetoexports
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculationsbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024).Note:ExternalpublicdebtreferstoexternalPublicandPubliclyGuaranteed(PPG)debt.Themedianrepresentsthevaluethatliesatthemidpointofthedatadistribution.
11
Anotefromhistory
Halfofdevelopingcountriesare
allocatingatleast6.3%oftheir
exportrevenuestoexternalpublicdebtservice.
Forcomparison,the1953LondonAgreementonGermany’swardebtlimitedtheamount
ofexportrevenuesthatcouldbespenton
externaldebtservicing(publicandprivate)
to5%toavoidunderminingtherecovery.
12
Thecreditorbasemakesdebt
expensiveanddifficulttorestructure
Externalpublicdebt,sharebytypeofcreditor(2022)
23%
PrivatecreditorsMultilateralcreditorsBilateralcreditors
44%
34%
Developingcountries
Africa
15%
14%
23%
61%
Asiaand
Oceania
26%
61%
23%
73%
LatinAmerica
andtheCaribbean
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteam,basedoncalculationsbasedonWorldBankInternationalDebtReport2023.
Note:ExternalpublicdebtreferstoexternalPublicandPubliclyGuaranteed(PPG)debt.
13
PrivatecreditorwithdrawalcausesnearlyUS$50billioninoutflows
Developingcountries’nettransfersonexternalpublicdebtbytypeofcreditorinUS$billion
Totalnet
resourcetransfer
200
100
−100
2010
2022
Private
2010
2022
Bilateral
2010
2022
Multilateral
2010
2022
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonWorldBankInternationalDebtReport2023.Note:Nettransfersaredefinedasdisbursementsminusdebtserviceonexternalpublicandpublicly
guaranteeddebt.
14
Developingcountrieswithnetdebt
outflowsmorethandoubledsince2014
Numberofdevelopingcountrieswithnetnegativetransfersonexternalpublicdebt
50
40
30
20
10
LatinAmericaandthe
Caribbean
AsiaandOceania
Africa
2015
2020
2010
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonWorldBankInternationalDebtReport2023.Note:Nettransfersaredefinedasdisbursementsminusdebtserviceonexternalpublicandpublicly
guaranteeddebt.
15
5.3
LatinAmerica
andthe
Caribbean
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonRefinitivdata.
Note:IllustrativecomparisonoftheaverageJPMEMBIGlobalDiversifiedUSDbondyieldsperregionwiththe
Africa
Asia
GermanyUSA
and
Oceania
Borrowingcostsofdevelopingcountriesarehigherthanthoseofdevelopedones
Bondyieldsofdevelopinganddevelopedcountries(2020-2024)
9.8
6.8
2.5
0.8
10-yearbondyieldsofGermanyandtheUnitedStatesfromJanuary2020toMay2024.
16
17
People
paytheprice.
Developingcountries’interest
paymentsreachUS$847billion
NetinterestpaymentsofdevelopingcountriesinUS$billion
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2010201220142016201820202022
847
Interest
payments
inUS$
billion
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024).
Note:Netinterestpaymentsofthegeneralgovernmentrefertothetotalamountofdomesticandexternalinterestexpensesincurredfromloansandotherformsofborrowing,minusanyinterestincomereceived.
18
Developingcountries’interest
paymentsdoublerelativetorevenues
Netinterestpaymentsofdevelopingcountriesrelativetogovernmentrevenues(percentage)
Africa
Developing
countries
5
10
7.8
4.2
0
2010
2023
4.4
9.2
2010
2023
Asiaand
Oceania
5.2
2.6
2010
2023
LatinAmerica
andtheCaribbean
9.2
8.1
2023
2010
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024).
Note:Medianpercountrygroup.Themedianrepresentsthevaluethatliesatthemidpointofthedata
distribution.Netinterestpaymentsofthegeneralgovernmentrefertothetotalamountofdomesticandexternalinterestexpensesincurredfromloansandotherformsofborrowing,minusanyinterestincomereceived.
19
Arecord54developingcountriesspendheavilyoninterest,mainlyinAfrica
Numberofdevelopingcountrieswithnetinterestpaymentsexceeding10%ofrevenues
50
40
30
20
10
2010
2020
2015
LatinAmericaandthe
Caribbean
AsiaandOceania
Africa
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024).
Note:Netinterestpaymentsofthegeneralgovernmentrefertothetotalamountofdomesticandexternalinterestexpensesincurredfromloansandotherformsofborrowing,minusanyinterestincomereceived.
20
Interestpaymentsaregrowingfasterthanotherpublicexpenditures
Nominalchange(%)inpublicexpenditurecategoriesindevelopingcountriesbetween2010-2012and2020-2022
Education
+38%
Health
+58%
Interest
+73%
%
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024)andWorldBankWorldDevelopmentIndicators.
Note:Changeinaggregateexpendituresfordevelopingcountries,averagefor3-yearperiod.Interestreferstonetinterestpayments.
21
Interest
94
70
84
%
Someregionsspendmoreonservicingdebtthanservingtheirpeople
Publicexpenditurepercapitaonnetinterest,educationandhealthinUS$(2020-2022)
Health
Africa
39
AsiaandOceania(excl.China)
62
Asia
andOceania
147
LatinAmerica
andthe
Caribbean
323
Education
60
110
203
364
280
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024)andWorldBankWorldDevelopmentIndicators.
Note:Aggregateexpendituresfordevelopingcountries.Interestreferstonetinterestpayments.
22
Education
Health
Agrowingnumberofcountriesspendmoreoninterestthandevelopment
Numberofdevelopingcountriesspendingmorepublicresourcesoninterestthanoneducationorhealth
2010-20122020-2022
12
15
34
46
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024)andWorldBankWorldDevelopmentIndicators.
Note:Interestreferstonetinterestpayments.
23
3.3billionpeople
liveincountriesthatspend
moreoninterestthaneducationorhealth
Populationindevelopingcountrieswherespendingoninterestexceedseducationorhealth(2020-2022)
Mllionsofpeople
3.3billion
Africa
130
768
2.1billion
AsiaandOceania
1,831
2,212
LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
138
347
EducationHealth
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024)andWorldBankWorldDevelopmentIndicators.
24
Interestoutweighsclimateinvestmentsinemerginganddevelopingcountries
Publicexpenditureinemergingmarketsanddevelopingcountriesexcl.Chinaoninterestandclimateinvestmentsas%ofGDP(2019)
InterestsClimateinvestments
2.1
2.4
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlook(April2024)andSongwe.V,et.al.(2022)“Financeforclimateaction:scalingupinvestmentforclimateanddevelopment”.
Note:FiguresforEmergingMarketsandDevelopingCountries(EMDC),excludingChina,for2019(latestavailablecomparabledata).TheEMDCgroupisanIMFclassificationanditdiffersfromtheUNdevelopingcountryclassificationusedthroughoutthisreport.
25
Aidthroughloansriseswhileactionrelatedtodebthitsrecordlow
OfficialDevelopmentAssistance(ODA),shareofloansintotalinpercentageandactionrelatedtodebtinUS$billions
Trend2012-2022
Shareofloans
(in%oftotalODA)
27.9
34.4
Actionrelatedtodebt(innominalUS$billion)
4.1
0.3
Source:UNGlobalCrisisResponseGroup(2024),
“Aidunderpressure:3acceleratingshiftsinOfficialDevelopmentAssistance”.
Note:Actionsrelatedtodebtincludesdebtrelief,swaps,buy-backs,restructuringandothers.
26
27
Acallforaction
tofinancesustainable
development.
47
30
9
Nearly50countriescallforinternationalfinancialarchitecturereform
FinanceanddebtrelatedtopicsinUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblyspeechesbynumberofcountriesandsharebycountrygroupin
percentage(2023)
Numberofspeeches
%ofdevelopedcountries
%ofdeveloping
countries
Finance
ordebt
149
67
82
Reformofthe
international
nancial
architecture
Source:UNGCRG-technicalteamcalculations,basedon192speechesoftheGeneralDebateatthe78thSessionoftheGeneralAssembly,19-23and26September2023.
28
1
2
3
OurCommonAgenda
PolicyBrief6
Reformstothe
International
Financial
Architecture
MAY2023
4
TheUnitedNationscallforreformofthe
InternationalFi
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