2024年消费品和零售展望（英）

Consumergoodsandretailoutlook2024HigherfootfallamiddepletedsavingsIntelligencethatmovesyouforwardEIUistheresearchandanalysisdivisionofTheEconomistGroup,aleadingsourceofinternationalbusinessandworldaffairsinformation.Itprovidesaccurateandimpartialintelligenceforcorporations,governments,financialinstitutionsandacademicorganisations,inspiringbusinessleaderstoidentifyopportunitiesandmanageriskswithconfidencesince1946.EIU’sproductsincludeaCountryAnalysisservice,providingcomprehensivepoliticalandeconomicanalysisandforecastsfornearly200countries,andaportfolioofsubscription-baseddataandforecastingsolutions.Wespecialisein:Countryanalysis—accessdetailedcountry-specificeconomicandpoliticalanalysis,dataandforecasts,aswellasassessmentsofthebusinessenvironmentindifferentmarkets.Riskanalysis—identifyoperationalandfinancialthreatsaroundtheworldandunderstandtheimplicationsforyourbusiness.Industryanalysis—gaininsightintokeymarkettrendswithfive-yearforecastsandin-depthanalysisforsixindustriesin70majoreconomies.Custombriefingsandpresentations—informyourstrategy,developexecutiveknowledgeandengageaudiences.Ourteamisavailabletobookforboardroombriefings,conferencesandotherprofessionalevents.ContactusformoreinformationTofindoutmoreaboutoursolutionsandthedifferentwayswecanhelpyou,pleasegetintouchorvisit.LONDONDLFCyberCity,Phase–IIIGurugram–122002Haryana,IndiaTel:+911246409486e-mail:asia@DUBAIEconomistIntelligenceTheAdelphi1-11JohnAdamStreet,London,WC2N6HTEconomistIntelligencePOBoxNo-450056,OfficeNo-1301AAuroraTowerDubaiMediaCityDubai,UnitedArabEmiratesNEWYORKUnitedKingdomTel:+97144463147Tel:+44(0)2075768000e-mail:london@e-mail:mea@EconomistIntelligence900ThirdAvenue16thFloorHONGKONGGURUGRAMNewYork,NY10022UnitedStatesTel:+12125410500e-mail:americas@EconomistIntelligenceEconomistIntelligenceTEGIndiaPvtLtd1301CityplazaFour12TaikooWanRoadTaikooShing,HongKongTel:+85225853888SkootrSpaces,UnitNo.1,12thFloor,TowerB,BuildingNo.9e-mail:asia@CONSUMERGOODS&RETAILOUTLOOK2024HIGHERFOOTFALLAMIDDEPLETEDSAVINGSHigherfootfallamiddepletedsavingsAslowdownininflationwillbolsterretailvolumegrowth,butdepletedsavingsandhighfoodpriceswillactasdampeners.•Retailsaleswillgrowby6.7%inUS-dollartermsand2%involumetermsin2024,helpedbyaslowdownininflation.Buthouseholdshavedepletedmuchoftheirsavings,sotheywillremainhighlyprice-sensitive.••Expansionindevelopingmarketswillleadtodouble-digitgrowthinglobalonlinesalesin2024.However,onlineretailers’profitswillremainunderpressureasregulatorywoeschallengethesector.Consumers’preferenceforshoppingatbrick-and-mortarstoreswillbolsterofflineretailers,especiallydiscountretailers.Somewillexpandtheirfootprintacrossgeographiestoaccommodatethehighfootfallexpectedin2024.•Foodinflationwillremainaconcerninmanydevelopingeconomies.TheElNiñoclimatepatternislikelytopushupricepricesindevelopingAsia.Thiswilldampendiscretionaryspendingatatimewhenbrandsarelookingtotheregiontooffsetslowdownsinmaturemarkets.Awelcomeslowdownininflationwillcomehandinhandwithadepletioninhouseholdsavings,posingnewchallengesforretailersandconsumergoodsmanufacturers.Globally,realgrowthinretailvolumeswillriseto2%in2024.Onlineretail,whichhasoftenbeenthedrivingforceforretailgrowthsincethepandemic,willcontinuetogrow,accountingfor14.6%oftotalglobalretailsales,butchallengeswillabound.Onlinesalesgrowthwillaccelerate,butprofitsandjobswillfacemorechallengesSince2022spirallinginflationinNorthAmericaandEuropehasbeenbadnewsforonlineretailers,marketsGrowthinonlineretailwillslowinwealthy(US$valuegrowth,%yearonyear)asconsumerscutdownonspendingorwentbacktostorestohuntforbargains.In2024globalgrowthinonlinesalesinUS-dollartermswillreturntodoubledigits(10.5%)afteracontractionin2022and7%growthin2023.InEuropethisaccelerationwillmainlyreflectaslightrevivaloftheeuroagainstthedollar,butinAsia,theMiddleEastandAfrica,andSouthAmericathelowerpenetrationoforganisedretailwillalsocreategrowthopportunities.Incontrast,growthinonlineretailintheUS(andinmuchofWesternEurope)willbeinsingledigits.SouthAmericaAsiaMiddleEast&AfricaUSMCAEurope3020100-10-202021222324Sources:EdgebyAscential;EIU.1©TheEconomistIntelligenceUnitLimited2023CONSUMERGOODS&RETAILOUTLOOK2024HIGHERFOOTFALLAMIDDEPLETEDSAVINGSDespiteanimprovedoutlookin2024,wedonothaveasunnyoutlookforonlineretail.Weexpecttoseecontinuedprofitabilitypressures,marketconsolidationandregulatoryroadblocks.Highinterestratesacrossmuchoftheworldwillmakeitdifficulttoattractnewinvestment,andexistinginvestorswilldemandbetterreturns.Indevelopingmarkets,whereconsumersarehighlyprice-sensitive,onlineretailingisoften(atleastinitially)loss-making.Profitandregulatorywoeswillshrinkthenumberofpureplay(onlineonly)retailers,whichinturnwillalsohaveanimpactongigworkersemployedbythesebusinessesandpotentiallyposeriskstoretailanddeliveryjobsin2024.Onlinegrocerydelivery,whichsawthefastestgrowthduringthepandemic,islikelytobebadlyaffectedin2024.SeveralplayersacrossEurope,suchasDeliverooandGetir,havebeenexitingmarketsandlayingoffemployeesamidrisingfoodcosts.Lastbutnotleast,theonlineretailsectorwillseemoreregulatorypressures,fromscrutinyofanti-competitivepracticestobansondarkstoresthatraisecity-planningchallenges.OfflineretailexpansionwillpickuppaceWeforecastthatglobalretailsaleswillgrowby6.7%indollartermsin2024,withbrick-and-mortarstoresaccountingforover85%oftotalsales.2024willseethestrongestpaceofgrowthforofflineretailsincethepost-pandemicreboundof2021.Thisrecoverywillbedrivenpartlybythereturnofinternationaltourismbutlargelybythecost-of-livingsqueeze.Eventhoughinflationwilleasein2024,asearchforlowerprices,anunwillingnesstopaydeliveryfeesandtheprioritisationofbasicgoodssuchasfoodwillluremanybargain-huntingconsumersbacktostores.Recoveryinfootfallatstoreswillencouragemanyretailerstoexpandtheirphysicalfootprintin2024(evenasmanysmallbusinessesaroundtheworldshutdownamidprohibitivelyhighcostsandinterestrates).TheseexpansionplanswillnotbelimitedtodevelopingmarketsinAsiaandtheMiddleEast,whereWesternbrandswillsetupshopstooffsetsluggishgrowthathome.Brick-and-mortarexpansionsarealsoonthecardsforretailersinEuropeandtheUS.Aldi,aGermandiscountgrocer,willcompletetheacquisitionof400newgrocerystoresinthesouth-easternUS.Costco,abiggerrivalintheUS,willalsoopenthefirstofitsplanned30newSam’sClub(big-boxstores)storesnextyear.Evenininflation-ravagedEurope,supermarketchainsCarrefour(France)andColruytBelgiumhaveannouncedplanstoacquirenewstoresinSpainandBelgium,respectively,in2024.Newstoreopeningswillnotbelimitedtothegrocerysector—evenfashionretailerslikeNordstrom(US)andPrimark(Ireland)willopennewstoresintheUSnextyear.Althoughvacancyratesforretailrealestateremainhighinmanymarketsaroundtheworld,theyhavestartedtodeclinein2023andshouldfallfurtherin2024.FoodinflationconcernswillnotbebehindusFoodandbeveragecommoditypriceswillcontinuetodeclinein2024,butthiswillnottranslateintomuchreliefforconsumers.Oneofthemainreasonsforthisislabourcosts,whichcontinuetoriseacrossretailandwarehousingjobs.Moreover,withfoodpricesstillhigherthanin2021,manygovernmentswillstepintoprotectconsumers.Italyhasalreadynegotiatedwithfoodmakersandretailerstoholddownthepricesofstaplefoods,whileFrance’seffortstobringforwardannualpricenegotiationsareexpectedtobearfruitinearly2024.Weexpectconsiderableregionaldisparitiesinpricetrends.Unlikein2022-23,inflationaryheadwinds2©TheEconomistIntelligenceUnitLimited2023CONSUMERGOODS&RETAILOUTLOOK2024HIGHERFOOTFALLAMIDDEPLETEDSAVINGSwillgrowstrongerindevelopingandemergingmarketsin2024asElNiñoaffectsproductionofrice,coffeeandcocoa.Theoutlookisparticularlyconcerningforsouthernandsouth-easternAsia,whichaccountfor90%oftheworld’sriceconsumption.Theregion’shouseholdsalsoallocateahighshareoftheirconsumerspendingtofoodandbeverages—from31%inIndiaand32%inIndonesiato42%inthePhilippines.Thiswillmakethemveryvulnerabletofoodpricerises.ThisinturnwilldampendiscretionaryspendingbyAsianconsumersatatimewhenmanybrandsarelookingtothisregiontocompensateforslowdownsinEuropeandtheUS.Asianconsumerswillfacemorefoodpriceincreases(consumerspendingonfood,drinks&tobacco,US$m;2020=100)IndiaPhilippinesIndonesiaThailandMalaysiaVietnam16015014013012011010090202021222324Source:EIU.WhattowatchScrutinyofsupplychains.Bytheendof2024theEU’sdeforestationregulationwillprohibittheimportationofgoodslinkedtolanddeforestedafterDecember31st2020.Thebiggestimpactwillbefeltindevelopingcountriesthatspecialiseinsellingproductssuchaspalmoil,coffeeorcocoatotheEU.Whereasthelargestconsumergoodscompanies,suchasNestle(Switzerland),havebettervisibilityoftheirsupplychains,aswellasloftytargetstoensureusageofdeforestation-freematerials,mostsmallbusinesseswillstruggletomeettheserequirements.Thetechnologicalinvestment(suchasintheblockchain)neededtobettermonitorsupplychainswillpushupcostsforEUbusinessesandconsumers.MoreBrexitpains.TheUKgovernmentwillintroducepost-BrexitbordercontrolsonfreshfoodproductsfromtheEUinJanuary2024.Themovehasbeendelayedseveraltimes,whileUKexportstotheEUalreadyfacebordercontrols.Thenewimportcontrolswouldaddtocostsforthefoodindustry,whichwouldultimatelybepassedontoconsumers,potentiallyoffsettingsomeofthegainsmadeincontrollinginflationin2023.Plasticpurge.About175countries,aspartofaUNintergovernmentalpanel,areaimingtoagreeonglobalstandardsforcurtailingplasticspollutionbytheendof2024.Thetaskisdifficult,especiallyamiddifferencesamongthecountrymembers,butitisanimportantsteptowardsresolvingtheplasticsproblem.Currentregulationsonplasticwastecontrolarefragmented,leadingtounevenprogressonwastecontrol.Severalcountrieswillalsoclampdownonplasticsusagethroughnationalregulations—forexample,Germanywillimposealevyonuseofsingle-useplasticsstarting2024.EIU'sweatherforecastforretailandconsumerbusinessesin2024OꢀineretailOnlineretailFoodNon-foodSource:EIU.3©TheEconomistIntelligenceUnitLimited2023EIUViewpoint:CountryAnalysisPreparingyouforwhat’saheadUnderstandacountry’spolitical,policyandeconomicoutlookwithouraward-winningforecasts,analysisanddata.Ourexpertsassesstheglobaldynamicsthatimpactorganisations,soyoucanplanandoperateeffectively.What’sincluded?•••••••••••Globalandregionaloutlookspanningpolitics,economicsandmarket-movingtopicsDailyinsightsonthedevelopmentsthatimpactthefutureoutlookExecutivesummariesofcountryforecastsoverthemedium-termoutlookMedium-termcountryforecastson~200countries’politicalandeconomiclandscapeLong-termcountryforecastsonthestructuraltrendsshaping~80majoreconomiesIndustryanalysisontheoutlookfor26sectorsin~70marketsCommodityforecastsonsupply,demandandpricesof25criticalgoodsMacroeconomicdataonforecasts,aswellashistorictrendsIndustrydataondemandandsupplyofkeygoods,nowandinthefutureProprietaryratingsonthebusinessenvironmentThematicanalysisofthecross-cuttingissuesthatourexpertsexpecttoshapetheglobaloutlookHowCountryAnalysishelpsyoutostayaheadExpansivecoverage-global,regionalandcountry-l