中国经济空间问题研究课件

第七章中国经济问题研究第一节改革开放以来经济发展总体态势一、经济总体特征二、中国经济波动问题三、中国经济波动原因第二节中国经济空间问题研究一、中国经济空间特征二、各区域经济总体态势及问题三、各层次区域单元空间经济问题的解决方法1第一节改革开放以来经济发展总体态势一、经济总体特征1、经济发展速度快——后发优势，但经济波动明显。2、中国经济发展的“四高一低”特征突出—高储蓄、低消费、高投资、高外汇储备3、外向型经济特征明显4、工业仍然是中国经济的主导；以金融业为主要特征的第三产业发展迅速，但潜在风险巨大5、经济发展的人口与资源红利逐步消失6、经济发展潜力巨大，但目前启动难度大7、城市化成为中国经济进一步发展的巨大引擎8、中国经济发展空间不均衡特征明显。2二、中国经济波动问题研究1、基本理论1）西方20世纪30年代前纯货币理论投资过度理论气候与农业收成理论心理理论2）当代（凯恩斯理论建立后）理论凯恩斯理论—资本边际效率的波动萨缪尔森线性乘数一加速数动态周期模型卡尔多非线性经济周期模型货币主义经济周期理论实际经济周期理论和新凯恩斯主义的周期理论33、经济周期基钦周期——1923年英国经济学家基钦提出的一种为期3-4年的经济周朱格拉周期

——是1860年法国经济学家朱格拉提出的一种为期9~10年的经济周期康德拉季耶夫周期

——是1926年俄国经济学家康德拉季耶夫提出的一种为期50-60年的经济周期库兹涅茨周期

——是1930年美国经济学家库涅茨提出的一种为期15-25年，平均长度为20年左右的经济周期熊彼特周期

——1936年，伟大的经济学家熊彼特提出他认为，每一个长周期包括6个中周期，每一个中周期包括三个短周期。短周期约为40个月，中周期约为9~10年，长周期为48~60年。44、研究经济周期的方法1）加法模型Y=T+C+S+IY：原始数据；T:长期趋势要素；C:循环要素；S:季节要素；I：不规则要素——这些要素都为绝对量2）乘数法Y=T*C*S*IT：绝对量其他三个为相对量5、经济周期的划分方法1）增长率法：2）BN法——将一个ARMA（p,1,q)分解为长期趋势和不规则部分3）HP滤波法——56、中国经济波动问题研究1、数据资料——中国统计年鉴年份国内生产

总值第一产业第二产业

第三产业

工业建筑业

19783645.2174741027.5345431745.21607138.2872.482931519794062.5791911270.1917081913.51769.7143.8878.887482719804545.6239731371.59314321921996.5195.5982.0308319814891.5610621559.4632652255.52048.4207.11076.59779719825323.3509651777.40067823832162.3220.71162.95028719835962.6515681978.3874032646.22375.6270.61338.06416619847208.0517182316.0894963105.72789316.71786.26222319859016.0365812564.3968913866.63448.7417.92585.03969198610275.179222788.6908114492.73967525.72993.788405198712058.615133233.0409815251.64585.8665.83573.974144198815042.823013865.3621696587.25777.28104590.260841198916992.319114265.923062727864847945448.396046199018667.8223850627717.46858859.45888.422376199121781.499415342.29102.28087.11015.17337.099411199226923.476455866.611699.510284.514159357.376451199335333.924716963.76289516454.4313114187.971312266.46000411915.73051199448197.856449572.6947522445.3990619480.709482964.68958216179.76263199560793.7292112135.811428679.457524950.61093728.84660419978.4603199671176.5916514015.3899933834.9590129447.607084387.35193623326.242656199778973.03514441.8856737543.0021932921.388564621.61363226988.14714199884402.2797714817.6255239004.1885434018.430554985.75799530580.46571199989677.0547514770.0284741033.5815935861.47935172.10228733873.44469200099214.5543114944.722545555.8779640033.592875522.28508538713.953852001109655.170615781.2690549512.2909743580.616115931.67486144361.610542002120332.689316537.0196653896.7677947431.308286465.45951749898.901822003135822.756117381.717762436.3121454945.527377490.7847756004.726312004159878.337921412.7340473904.3118765210.029128694.28274664561.292012005184937.3692242087598.0937977230.7791110367.3146874919.275172006216314.425924040103719.541691310.9362912408.6052988554.884362007265810.305828627125831.358110534.876515296.48158111351.94782008314045.427133702149003.44130260.2418743.2131339.98712009340902.812635226157638.7766135239.949922398.82672148038.0362010401512.795240533.6187383.2113160722.231726660.97956173595.9842011472881.557847486.21059220412.8143188470.153131942.6612204982.53297修正后的GDP数值GDP第一产业第二产业第三产业1978年15279.310416673.4013814857.4670974975.5036121979年16436.390257082.7551315255.7012925366.5181611980年17725.240266977.7188445968.8375275688.4278171981年18654.594027464.9600346080.2105236281.1926421982年20344.116478325.6010136418.3745367096.2017081983年22552.059239018.7686467083.6461628172.9138211984年25974.5645210180.456888109.4642689754.3064521985年29472.349410368.16879615.29189811525.826121986年32079.5844410712.2227110597.9630812914.039041987年35795.4473311216.1606412049.3177214767.97181988年39833.382711501.5230813798.655816711.405071989年41451.8939911855.1903614318.5762317607.174211990年43043.2425412723.9267314772.4279318018.276521991年46994.1545313029.2806816819.060219616.979051992年53686.4540813641.763920376.9309622057.837421993年61183.3994614283.1593724425.0210724745.864081994年69186.6052714854.5567528909.3508827490.433021995年76745.2282915597.3987232920.6888930195.386051996年84426.2924616392.9928636906.1855933041.758221997年92275.4333716966.6727940773.5778936582.846281998年99503.6881317560.3884144406.6755939645.657791999年107085.705718052.0792948019.4830843344.520172000年116114.400818485.3268452416.1810545488.385392001年125752.264819002.9291356840.9012150154.3210782002年137173.17119554.0188862427.9593255391.590222003年150925.30120042.8598770338.7721960655.453662004年166146.177721305.5654178155.1364766755.23062005年184937.3692242087598.0937974919.275172006年208381.01782354199328.4640485511.553772007年237892.760624422.37504114290.638199179.747562008年260812.938825735.92772125579.6526109497.35852009年284844.761926812.60283138062.7461119969.4132010年314602.463327957.84741154975.7652131668.85079GDP轨迹与趋势线Y=3.18-0.21X1+0.49X2+0.48X31011第二产业波动图121314中国固定资产投资趋势图（原始数据）15中国固定资产投资趋势图（对数）1617一、中国经济空间总体特征1、概述数据收集与处理数据分析结论2、中国经济空间格局演变3、中国经济空间特征第二节中国经济空间问题研究18省份1978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993

上海273286312325337352391467491545648.3696.5756.5893.811141512

北京109120139139155183217257285327410.2456500.8598.9709.1863.5

天津82.793104108114123147176195220259.6283.3311342.8411.2536.1

江苏249299320350390438519652745922120913221417161021362998

浙江124158180204233256322428500604765.8843.7898108213651909

内蒙古5864.168.478.493.7105128164182212270.8292.7319.3359.7421.7532.7

广东185207246284331357442553638808109913121472178122943225

辽宁22924528128931536443851960571988110041063120014732011

山东225252292347395460582680742892111812941511181121972779

福建66.474.187.1106118128157200223279383.2458.4523.3622787.71133

吉林8891.198.6111122150173200227297368.7391.7425.4463.5558.1718

河北183203219223251283332397437522701.3822.8896.3107212791691

湖北151188199220242263328396442518626.5717.1824.4913.410881424

重庆71.78190.797.2108120142164185207261.3303.8327.8374.2461.3608.5

陕西81.194.594.9103112124149181206239301.5336.3374.1427.9540.5671.4

黑龙江175187221228248277318355401455552630.6715.2824.28641203

宁夏1314.41617.418.220.324.830.334.539.650.2959.2164.8471.7883.14103.8

山西88106109122139155197219235257316.7376.3429.3468.5570704.7

新疆39.145.653.259.465.278.689.8112129149192.7217.4274335.9402.3505.6

河南163190229250263328370452503610749.1850.7934.7104612801663

湖南147178192210233257287350398469584.1640.8744.4833.3997.71278

青海15.515.217.817.52022.526.43338.443.454.9660.3769.9475.187.52109.6

海南16.417.519.322.228.931.137.243.34857.377.1391.4102.5120.5181.7258.1

四川245291322333379421498606655747922.6995.71186138316252096

江西87104111121134144169208231263325.8376.5428.6479.4572.6723.1

广西75.984.697.3113129135150181205242313.3383.4449.1518.6646.6893.6

安徽114127141171188216266331383441546.9616.3658663.6801.21070

西藏6.657.38.6710.410.210.313.617.816.917.720.2521.8627.730.5333.2937.28

甘肃64.767.573.970.976.991.5103123141160191.8216.8242.8271.4317.8372.2

云南69.176.884.394.1110120140165182229301.1363.1451.7517.4618.7779.2

贵州46.655.360.367.979.487.4108124140166211.8235.8260.1295.9339.9416.119省份199419951996199719981999200020012002

上海1971.922462.572902.203360.213688.204034.964551.155210.125741.03

北京1084.031394.891615.731810.092011.312174.462478.763710.524330.40

天津725.14920.111102.401235.281336.381450.061639.361919.092150.76

江苏4057.395155.256004.216680.347199.957697.828582.739456.8410606.85

浙江2666.863524.794146.064638.244987.505364.896036.346898.348003.67

内蒙古681.92832.88984.781099.771192.291268.201401.011713.811940.94

广东4240.565381.726519.147315.517919.128464.319662.2312039.2513502.42

辽宁2461.782793.373157.693582.463881.734171.694669.065033.085458.22

山东3872.185002.345960.426650.027162.207662.108542.449195.0410275.50

福建1685.342160.522583.833000.363286.563550.243920.074072.854467.55

吉林936.781129.21337.161446.911557.781669.561821.192120.352348.54

河北2187.492849.523452.973953.784256.014569.195088.965516.766018.28

湖北1878.652391.422970.203450.243704.213857.994276.323880.534212.82

重庆833.61123.061179.091350.101429.261479.711589.341765.681990.01

陕西816.581000.031175.381300.031381.531487.611660.922010.622253.39

黑龙江1618.632014.532402.582708.462798.892897.413253.003390.133637.20

宁夏133.97169.75193.62210.92227.46241.49265.57337.44377.16

山西853.771092.481308.011480.131486.081506.781643.812029.532324.80

新疆673.68834.57912.151050.141116.671168.551364.361491.601612.65

河南2224.433002.743661.184079.264356.604576.105137.665533.016035.48

湖南1694.422195.72647.162993.003118.093326.753691.883831.904151.54

青海138.24165.31183.57202.05220.16238.39263.59300.13340.65

海南330.95364.17389.53409.86438.92471.23518.48558.41621.97

四川2777.8835342985.153320.113580.263711.614010.254293.494725.01

江西948.161205.111517.261715.181851.981962.982003.072175.682450.48

广西1241.831606.151697.901817.251903.041953.272050.142279.342523.73

安徽1488.472003.582339.252669.952805.452908.593038.243246.713519.72

西藏45.8455.9864.7676.9891.18105.61117.46146.04166.56

甘肃451.66553.35714.18781.34869.75931.98983.361125.371232.03

云南973.971206.681491.621644.231793.901855.741955.092138.312312.82

贵州521.17630.07713.70792.98841.88911.86993.531133.271243.4320省份200320042005200620072008200920102011

上海6694.238072.839154.1810572.2412494.0114069.8615046.4517165.9819195.69

北京5023.776060.286886.318117.789846.8111115.0012153.0314113.5816251.93

天津2578.033110.973697.624462.745252.766719.017521.859224.4611307.28

江苏12442.8715003.6018305.6621742.0526018.4830981.9834457.3041425.4849110.27

浙江9705.0211648.7013437.8515718.4718753.7321462.6922990.3527722.3132318.85

内蒙古2388.383041.073895.554944.256423.188496.209740.2511672.0014359.88

广东15844.6418864.6222366.5426587.7631777.0136796.7139482.5646013.0653210.28

辽宁6002.546672.008009.019304.5211164.3013668.5815212.4918457.2722226.70

山东12078.1515021.8418516.8721900.1925776.9130933.2833896.6539169.9245361.85

福建4983.675763.356568.937583.859248.5310823.0112236.5314737.1217560.18

吉林2662.083122.013620.274275.125284.696426.107278.758667.5810568.83

河北6921.298477.6310096.1111467.6013607.3216011.9717235.4820394.2624515.76

湖北4757.455633.246520.147617.479333.4011328.8912961.1015967.6119632.26

重庆2272.822692.813070.493907.234676.135793.666530.017925.5810011.37

陕西2587.723175.583675.664743.615757.297314.588169.8010123.4812512.30

黑龙江4057.404750.605511.506211.807104.008314.378587.0010368.6012582.00

宁夏445.36537.16606.10725.90919.111203.921353.311689.652102.21

山西2855.233571.374179.524878.616024.457315.407358.319200.8611237.55

新疆1886.352209.092604.193045.263523.164183.214277.055437.476610.05

河南6867.708553.7910587.4212362.7915012.4618018.5319480.4623092.3626931.03

湖南4659.995641.946511.347688.679439.6011555.0013059.6916037.9619669.56

青海390.20466.10543.32648.50797.351018.621081.271350.431670.44

海南693.20798.90894.571044.911254.171503.061654.212064.502522.66

四川5333.096379.637385.118690.2410562.3912601.2314151.2817185.4821026.68

江西2807.413456.704056.764820.535800.256971.057655.189451.2611702.82

广西2821.113433.504075.754746.165823.417021.007759.169569.8511720.87

安徽3923.104759.325375.126112.507360.928851.6610062.8212359.3315300.65

西藏189.09220.34251.21290.76341.43394.85441.36507.46605.83

甘肃1399.831688.491933.982276.702702.403166.823387.564120.755020.37

云南2556.023081.913472.893988.144772.525692.126169.757224.188893.12

贵州1426.341677.801979.062338.982884.113561.563912.684602.165701.8421222324252627281978年以来中国经济空间离散性变化轨迹2930313233342、197