基金管理公司的财务模型底稿

,公司名称：一汽轿车000800,,,,,,,,,,,,

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,主营业务收入(万元),2001A,2002A,20031Q,20032Q,20033Q,20034QE,2003E,,20031-6,20031-9,,

,整车,"289,279.55","421,268.64","114,451.42","187,774.39","301,439.78","285,814.02","889,479.61",,"302,225.81","603,665.59",,

,红旗,,,"114,451.42","68,523.00","101,225.00","60,325.00","344,524.42",,,,,

,MAZDA,,,--,"119,251.39","200,214.78","225,489.02","544,955.19",,,,,

,备件,"55,247.37","54,289.52","11,286.67","13,292.28","14,314.87","15,746.36","54,640.18",,"24,578.95","38,893.82",,

,合计,"344,526.92","475,558.16","125,738.09","201,066.67","315,754.65","301,560.38","944,119.79",,"326,804.76","642,559.41",,

,主营业务成本(万元),2001A,2002A,20031Q,20032Q,20033Q,20034QE,2003E,,20031-6,20031-9,,

,整车,"244,971.40","332,297.74","84,644.04","142,643.37","232,525.32","215,307.75","675,120.48",,"227,287.41","459,812.73",,

,红旗,,,"84,644.04","57,163.19","87,821.58","52,337.24","281,966.05",,,,,

,MAZDA,,,--,"85,480.18","144,703.74","162,970.51","393,154.43",,,,,

,备件,"46,785.28","42,823.71","15,470.28","2,788.95","10,767.60","11,844.36","40,871.19",,"18,259.23","29,026.83",,

,合计,"291,756.68","375,121.45","100,114.32","145,432.32","243,292.92","227,152.11","715,991.67",,"245,546.64","488,839.56",,

,主营业务成本/收入(%),2001A,2002A,20031Q,20032Q,20033Q,,,,20031-6,20031-9,,

,整车,84.68%,78.88%,73.96%,75.97%,77.14%,,,,75.20%,76.17%,,

,红旗,,,73.96%,83.42%,86.76%,,,,,,,

,MAZDA,,,--,71.68%,72.27%,,,,,,,

,备件,84.68%,78.88%,137.07%,20.98%,75.22%,,,,74.29%,74.63%,,

,合计,84.68%,78.88%,79.62%,72.33%,77.05%,,,,75.14%,76.08%,,

,毛利(万元),2001A,2002A,20031Q,20032Q,20033Q,20034QE,2003E,,20031-6,20031-9,,

,整车,"44,308.15","88,970.90","29,807.38","45,131.02","68,914.46","70,506.28","214,359.14",,"74,938.40","143,852.86",,

,红旗,,,"29,807.38","11,359.81","13,403.42","7,987.76","62,558.37",,,,,

,MAZDA,,,--,"33,771.21","55,511.04","62,518.51","151,800.77",,,,,

,备件,"8,462.09","11,465.81","-4,183.61","10,503.33","3,547.27","3,902.00","13,768.99",,"6,319.72","9,866.99",,

,合计,"52,770.24","100,436.71","25,623.77","55,634.35","72,461.73","74,408.27","228,128.12",,"81,258.12","153,719.85",,

,毛利率(%),2001A,2002A,20031Q,20032Q,20033Q,,,,20031-6,20031-9,,

,整车,15.32%,21.12%,26.04%,24.03%,22.86%,,,,24.80%,23.83%,,

,红旗,,,26.04%,16.58%,13.24%,,,,,,,

,MAZDA,,,--,28.32%,27.73%,,,,,,,

,备件,15.32%,21.12%,-37.07%,79.02%,24.78%,,,,25.71%,25.37%,,

,合计,15.32%,21.12%,20.38%,27.67%,22.95%,,,,24.86%,23.92%,,

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,整车销售数量(辆),2002A,2003E,2004E,2005E,2006E,2007E,2008E,,20031-9,20031-10,,

,红旗,"26,557","26,000","24,000","24,000","24,000","24,000","24,000",,"21,174","23,069",,

,销售量增长(%),--,-2.1%,-7.7%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,0.0%,,,,,

,MAZDA,--,"24,000","50,000","65,000","81,250","101,563","121,875",,"14,088","17,558",,

,销售量增长(%),--,--,108.3%,30.0%,25.0%,25.0%,20.0%,,,,,

,合计,"26,557","50,000","74,000","89,000","105,250","125,563","145,875",,"35,262","40,627",,

,销售量增长(%),--,88.3%,48.0%,20.3%,18.3%,19.3%,16.2%,,,,,

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,主营业务收入,2002A,2003E,2004E,2005E,2006E,2007E,2008E,,20031-9,,,

,整车,"421,268.64","889,479.61","1,364,777.44","1,519,510.13","1,651,489.29","1,805,761.80","1,912,664.92",,"603,665.59",,,

,红旗,"421,268.64","344,524.42","286,220.29","257,598.26","231,838.43","208,654.59","187,789.13",,,,,

,MAZDA,0.00,"544,955.19","1,078,557.15","1,261,911.87","1,419,650.85","1,597,107.21","1,724,875.79",,,,,

,备件,"54,289.52","54,640.18","59,694.39","65,216.12","71,248.62","77,839.11","85,039.23",,"38,893.82",,,

,合计,"475,558.16","944,119.79","1,424,471.84","1,584,726.25","1,722,737.90","1,883,600.91","1,997,704.15",,"642,559.41",,,

,主营业务收入增长(%),--,98.53%,50.88%,11.25%,8.71%,9.34%,6.06%,,,,,

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,主营业务成本/收入(%),2002A,2003E,2004E,2005E,2006E,2007E,2008E,,20031-9,,,

,整车,84.68%,75.90%,,,,,,,,,,

,红旗,84.68%,81.84%,81.84%,81.84%,81.84%,81.84%,81.84%,,,,,

,MAZDA,--,72.14%,72.14%,72.14%,72.14%,72.14%,72.14%,,,,,

,备件,84.68%,74.80%,74.80%,74.80%,74.80%,74.80%,74.80%,,,,,

,合计,84.68%,75.84%,74.20%,73.83%,73.56%,73.33%,73.17%,,,,,

,,20031Q,20032Q,20033Q,20034QE,,,,,,,,

,红旗,"7,805","5,271","8,098","4,826",,,,,,,,

,,14.66,13.00,12.50,12.50,,,,,,,,

,,10.84,10.84,10.84,10.84,,,,,,,,

,MAZDA,0,"5,287","8,801","9,912",,,,,,,,

,,--,22.56,22.75,22.75,,,,,,,,

,,--,16.17,16.44,16.44,,,,,,,,

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,整车销售数量(辆),200301,200302,200303,200304,200305,200306,200307,200308,200309,200310,200311,200312

,红旗,"3,016","1,987","2,802","1,701","1,211","2,359","2,790","2,469","2,839","1,895",,

,销售量增长(%),--,-34.1%,41.0%,-39.3%,-28.8%,94.8%,18.3%,-11.5%,15.0%,-33.3%,-100.0%,#DIV/0!

,MAZDA,0,0,0,944,"1,872","2,471","2,675","2,957","3,169","3,470",,

,销售量增长(%),--,--,--,--,98.3%,32.0%,8.3%,10.5%,7.2%,9.5%,-100.0%,#DIV/0!

,合计,,,,"2,645","3,083","4,830","5,465","5,426","6,008","5,365",,

,销售量增长(%),--,#DIV/0!,#DIV/0!,#DIV/0!,16.6%,56.7%,13.1%,-0.7%,10.7%,-10.7%,-100.0%,#DIV/0!

,轿车价格,10万以下,10-15万,15-20万,20万以上,,,,,,,,

,2002年市场占有率,20.90%,37.60%,18.40%,22.30%,,,,,,,,

,,2001A,2002A,20031H,,,,,,,,,

,应收帐款+其他应收款,"43,302","37,566","37,339",,,,,,,,,

,三年以上款项,"8,784","19,729","20,638",,,,,,,,,

,三年以上款项比例(%),20.3%,52.5%,55.3%,,,,,,,,,

,三年以上款项坏帐准备,"3,723","8,976","9,247",,,,,,,,,

,坏帐准备/应收款(%),42.4%,45.5%,44.8%,,,,,,,,,

,,2001A,2002A,20031H,,,,,,,,,

,存货---产成品,"40,403","68,381","67,352",,,,,,,,,

,产成品跌价准备,470,"2,367","2,337",,,,,,,,,

,产成品跌价准备比例,1.16%,3.46%,3.47%,,,,,,,,,

,,,市净率,ROE,净利率,资产周转率,权益乘数,PRICE,BV,TA,TOTAL,,

,600104,上海汽车,3.59,14.84%,27.01%,0.46,1.28,13.85,"973,430","1,244,293","252,000",,

,927,一汽夏利,4.89,16.49%,11.82%,0.50,2.87,8.73,"284,554","816,215","159,517",,

,625,长安汽车,4.59,25.43%,10.58%,1.14,2.24,16.57,"442,738","991,879","122,667",,

,600006,东风汽车,2.75,13.74%,9.80%,0.77,1.95,10.81,"392,980","767,837","100,000",,

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,2004年M6销售量（辆）,"35,000","40,000","45,000","50,000","55,000",,,,,,,

,主营业务收入增长率,16.6%,28.0%,39.5%,50.9%,62.3%,,,,,,,

,净利润（万元）,"70,013","78,368","86,722","95,077","103,432",,,,,,,

,净利率,6.36%,6.48%,6.59%,6.67%,6.75%,,,,,,,

,EPS（元）,0.430,0.482,0.533,0.584,0.636,,,,,,,

,P/E,20,17,16,14,13,,,,,,,

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