2023年数字汽车报告：全球移动出行市场-2023-09-数字化

VOLUME2

Understandingconsumer

DigitalAutoReport

2023–Volume2

•Consumerview–changingmobilitypreferences

•Implicationsforautoplayers–interface,subscriptionandcharging

Thisreport:Volume2

✔EleventhannualDigitalAutoReport,

developedbyStrategy&andPwC

✔Globalconsumersurveywithafocus

ontheUS,EUandChina(n=3,000)

✔Quantitativemarketoutlookupto2035,

basedonregionalstructuralanalysis

•Trends–userexperience,e-mobility,automateddrivingandsmartmobility

•Marketoutlook–penetrationoftechnologiesandmobilitytypes

✔Interviewswithindustryexecutivesat

OEMsandsuppliers,andwithleading

academicsandindustryanalysts

•Economicopportunity–selectedvaluepoolsinAD,EVandSmartMobility

DigitalAutoReport2023Volume2

Strategy&

Source:Strategy&

2

Futurevaluecreationinautomotivedependsonanticipating

andprioritizingseveraltechnologytrends

Executivesummary–Volume2

DigitaltransformationischaracterizedbyseveralkeytrendsthatdemandCEOattention:

•Geo-politicalpowershifts:ChineseOEMsareassertingtheirdominancedomesticallyandmakinginroadsintotheEuropeanmarket.Regulationinmajormarkets

e.g.onsustainability(CBAM),hightech(ChipsAct),orprivacy(GDPR)willlikelyforceplayerstolocalizefurtherinthreeregions(US,EU,CN)

•Digitaluserexperience:Balancingdigitalvehicleexperienceandcustomersatisfactionwiththerespectivecostsforthedigitaltechnologiesremainskey.

OEMsshouldsourcetechcapabilitiesviaecosystempartnerships,butneedtoavoidlong-termdependencies

•Digitaline-Mobility:Ampleopportunitiesemergearoundbatteryandchargingvaluechains–OEMsshouldorchestratetheirownplatformsforpartnersto

integrateandrealizenewserviceofferings.Forsuppliersthisisanopportunitytoincreasetheirshareofservice-based,recurringrevenues.

•Automateddriving:ADisgraduallymovingbeyondexperimentalstagestowardscommercialviabilityinprivateandsharedvehicles.Strongcostreductionis

expectedforL3/L4ADtechnologiesoncescale-upkicksin

•Smartmobilityservices:Firstplayersbecomingprofitabledemonstratesfeasibilityofthosebusinessmodelswhenrigorouslyfocusingonassetutilization

•Totalvehicleparc2035seeninEuropeat366mvehicles(vs.352min’25),intheUSat359m(vs.300min’25)andinChinaat418m(vs.364in’25)

•Allregionsexpectedwithsimilarstrongincreaseofadvancedvehicleconnectivity–Chinaat94%,USat93%andEuropeat81%by2035

•BEVpenetrationin2035expectedhighestinEurope(96%ofnewvehiclesales),followedbyChina(81%)andtheUS(only58%)

–differencesmainlyduetodifferentregulatoryincentiveschemesandindustrystructure(combustionengineindustryinEU/USvs.EVindustryinChina)

•Adoptionofhighlyautomateddriving(L4/5)moreconservativethaninpreviousforecastswith7%ofnewvehiclesalesinEUand9%intheUS;

Chineseexpectationsmuchmoreoptimistic,drivenbyveryambitiousgovernmentplans(36%in‘35)

•Mobilitymodesshiftveryslowlyconsideringtheoverallmix–MaaS(e.g.taxi,hailing,robo-taxi)andVaaS(e.g.sharing,rental,subscription)aregettingmore

popular,butarestillonlyafractionoftotalkilometerstravelled(4%inGER,3%inUS,5%inCNby’35);privatevehicleswillremainthemainmodeinsuchascenario

Forinnovativemarketplayers,considerablerevenueopportunitiesarisefromthesetrendsandmarketoutlook,i.e.:

•Digitale-Mobilityvaluepools:$8bn(Europe|2030)forselectedsoftwareandhardwaresolutions

•ElectricVehiclevaluepools:$760bn(Global|2030)forEVpowertrain&battery

•Automateddrivingvaluepools:$81bn(EU,US,CN|2035)forADASfeaturesvaluecontributiontototalvehiclesales

•MaaSandVaaSvaluepools:$264bn(GER,US,CN|2035)forcombinedMaaSandVaaSmarket

OEM=OriginalEquipmentManufacturerCBAM=CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanismGDPR=GeneralDataProtectionRegulationAD=AutomatedDriving

MaaS=Mobility-as-a-ServiceVaaS=Vehicle-as-a-Service(B)EV=(Battery)ElectricVehicleADAS=AdvancedDriverAssistanceSystem

Note:PleaserefertorespectivesectionfordetailedassumptionsandsourcesbehindstatedpropositionsSource:Strategy&

DigitalAutoReport2023Volume2

Strategy&

3

Thedigitaltransformationinthemobilityindustryisinfull

swing–multipleopportunitiesemergeforallplayers

Digitaltrendsinmobility

Geo-politicalpowershifts

Digitaluserexperience

Digitaline-Mobility

Automateddriving

Smartmobilityservices

ChineseOEMsmovedupto

No.1carimporterinEurope

–vs.No.8in2017

76%ofautoleadersconsider

newcollaborationmodelsasopportunityby2030

keyforwinningvehicleOS

$~8bnfordigitale-Mobility

OEMrevenuesallocatedto

ADASpartsexpectedto

reach$79bnby2035

Firstglobalmobility

operatorsprofitablein2023

(i.e.UBER,LIME)

expected

•Newentrantsemergewith

•Digitalexperienceisnow

•Riseofe-mobilitydrives

demandfordigitalservices

andinfrastructure

•ADismovingfromtrialto

•Smartmobilityincl.micro,

sharing,hailing,rental,

focusonDigitalandBEV

crucialbranddifferentiator

commercialmodes

on-demand,subscriptions

•Geopoliticaluncertainties

forceglobalOEMsand

suppliersintode-risking

•Trulyintelligentassistants,

smartmaterials,andultra-

widescreenspickingup

•Mercedeswithfirsthands-off

provisioning

autobahnpilot(L3)

•Adoptiondrivenby

integrated,multi-modal

platformswithpublic

•Softwareopportunities

aroundbattery,charging

equipment,chargepoint

access,andenergymgmt.

•WaymoandCruisewithfirst

•Governmentsprotecthome

marketsviaESGregulation

(e.g.CBAM)

•Valuecreationbeyondcore

productdifferentiationstillto

beproven

licensesinSanFrancisco

transport,ADwillbeaboost

•ButADregulationevolving

verydifferentlyacross

regions

•Firstplayersprofitable,but

•Multi-stakeholderplatforms

onlywithrevisedcityfocus

andstandardsjustemerging

Localizeddigitalstrategyfor

US,EUandChinaneeded

Investinpartnershipsto

bridgelackoftechscale

Consideraccesstodigital

e-mobilityinnovationviastartupsgo-to-markettimingcritical

WithmaturingADtech,right

Integrateownmobilityoffers

intootherplatformsforscale

OEM=OriginalEquipmentManufacturerCBAM=CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanismAD=AutomatedDriving

EGS=Environmental,SocialandcorporateGovernanceOS=OperatingSystem

Source:Strategy&

DigitalAutoReport2023Volume2

Strategy&

4

Theglobalpowerplayischanging–whileChineseOEMswinat

homeandgaintractioninEU,regulationtightenseverywhere

Changingglobalpowershifts–exampleChineseOEMs

CarimportsintoEurope

CarsalesinChina

PassengercarimportsintheEUbytop8countriesoforiginin2022

PassengercarsalesinChinabybrandorigin

(2017vs.2022)

(countryrankingvs.2017)

China

522k

452k

441k

411k

391k

329k

266k

181k

8

2017

2022

44%

20%

37%

Turkey

→0

2

→0

2

UnitedKingdom

SouthKorea

Japan

50%

20%

31%

Morocco

1

UnitedStates

Mexico

Domestic(Chinese)

German

Others

2

2

EUregulatorychallengesfornon-EUOEMs

CompetitivedisadvantagesofWesternOEMsinChina

In2022,35%ofpassengercarssoldintheEUwereimported.

EUregulationstoslowdownimportquotasareexpected

(e.g.,CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism,DigitalProduct

Passports,DataPrivacy)

Weaker

authoritative

support

Harder-to-grasplocal

preference(e.g.,

selfiefunctionincar)

Intermediate

accesstolocal

resources

35%

WiththeriseofChineseOEMs,theglobalpowerplayischangingonceagain.Regulationinmajormarketsonsustainability(CBAM),high

tech(ChipsAct),transparency(DigitalProductPassport)orprivacy(GDPR)willlikelyforceplayerstolocalizeinthreeregions(US,EU,CN).

DigitalAutoReport2023Volume2

Strategy&

OEM=OriginalEquipmentManufacturerCBAM=CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanismGDPR=GeneralDataProtectionRegulationAD=AutomatedDriving

Source:PwCAutofactsanalysis,ACEA,EUROSTAT,CAAM;Strategy&

5

Vehicleuserexperienceisbecomingmorepersonaland

interactive–butsomeinnovationsresultinhighercomplexity

Digitaluserexperience–trendsandchallenges

Challenges

1

•Safety:Amoreimmersiveinteractionwiththevoiceassistantcould

Notonlycommands,butactualconversations

ImplementationofChatGPTtechnologyincarvoiceinterfaces

compromisethedriver’sconcentration

•DataPrivacy:Handlingofpersonaldatashouldbedealtwithcare,dueto

usertrustandcybersecurityrisks

2

3

4

•Customervalue:Thisnascenttechstillneedsconvincingusecases

Thephysicalisacquiringdigitalflexibility

Smartmaterialsallowphysicalsurfacestounderstandandreact

tojustifyitscosttocustomersbeyondnoveltyanddifferentiation

•Usability:Surface-embeddedsmartcontrolsrequirespecialdesignattention

toensurethatuserscanlocateandoperatetheinterface

•Safety:Inordertominimizetherisksofdriverdistractionastouchscreens

Thetouchscreenistakingoverthedashboard

Cardashboardsarebecomingultra-wideentertainmentsystems

growinsizeandfunctionality,designforusabilityincreasesinimportance

•Energyefficiency:Biggerandmorepowerfulinfotainmentsystemalso

requiresmoreelectricity,affectingthecarrangeinEVsespecially

•Safety:ClutteredandpoordesignofARinterfacecoulddistractdriversfrom

Guidancerightwhereyouneedit

Augmentedrealityisbecomingmature,andadvanced

theroadahead;applicationmightremainlimitedtopassengers

•Cost:ARtechnologyincarsisstillsignificantlymoreexpensivethan

traditionaldisplays

Vehicleexperienceincreasinglydependsondigitaltechnologiesthatonlyworkatscale.OEMsmustbelaserfocusedontheirexperience

differentiatorsandsourcetechcapabilities(e.g.machinelearning,operatingsystemsorcloudstorage)viaecosystempartnerships.

DigitalAutoReport2023Volume2

Strategy&

OEM=OriginalEquipmentManufacturer

Source:Strategy&analysis

7

AsOEMsgodigital,theirtechpartnerportfoliomustbalance

fastgo-to-marketbenefitswithlong-termdependencies

ExamplesofOEMandtechnologyplayerpartnerships

Front-endenablers

OperatingSystem(OS)

ComputePlatform

Ultifi(GM-ownedsoftwareplatform),

Android

Qualcomm(strategiccollaborationondigital

cockpits,telematicssystemsandADAS)

GM

(platformusageofAndroidAutofrom2024)

Redhat(strategiccollaborationonSDVs)

Selectingtheright

partnersacrosstech

domainsisessentialto

deliverwinningdigital

experiences&services

Oracle(offboard-strategiccollaborationon

highperformanceworkloads)

Lexus

AreneOS

(Toyota-ownedreal-timesoftwareplatform)

Toyota

(Toyota-ownedmultimediasystemsince2021)

Nopartnerforonboardannounced

Android(futureusageofAndroidAuto&

GoogleApps)

vw.OS(VW-ownedOSplatform)

Qualcomm

(strategiccollaborationwithfocusonautomated

drivingfunctionsuptoL4)

BlackberryQNX(supplyofsafety-certified

embeddedsoftwareintegratedinvw.OS)

VW

Thundersoft(collab.forChinesemarket)

Harman(supplyofopenecosystemforApps)

Front-endpartnerships

visibletoendusersmust

becarefullycuratedto

controlcustomer

Vector(supplyofautomotiveethernet)

Android(platformusageforinfotainment,

AppstoredesignedforBMW)

Qualcomm(strategiccollaborationwithfocus

onautomateddrivingfunctions)

Android

BMW

(platformusageofAndroidAutoinBMWOS8)

QNX/Blackberry(supplyofsafety-certified

embeddedsoftware)

Intel/Mobileye(strategiccollaborationfor

autonomousdrivingplatform)

access&experience

MB.OS(announcedMercedes-ownedOS

platform)

Unity

Nvidia

ForOSandcompute

platformpartnerships

guardrailsneededto

avoiddependencyon

fewdominantplayers

Mercedes(strategicpartnershiptoenableinfotainment

(strategiccollaborationonSDVs,

futurefocusonAIapplications)

QNX/Blackberry(supplyofsafety-certified

embeddedsoftware)

applicationsonnewMB.OS)

Android(strategiccollaborationonSDV

Renaultoffboard&onboardapplications)

Valeo(SupplyofSDVcomponentsincl.HPCs)

Android(announcedstrategicpartnership

digitalarchitectureforSDVs)

Qualcomm(strategiccollaborationwithfocus

onnext-gen.vehiclearchitecture)

Valeo(supplyofon-boardapplicationsoftware)

Amazon(strategiccollaborationonsoftware

solutionsstartingin2024)

MobileDrive(strategiccollaborationtogetherQualcomm

Stellantis

withFoxconnonin-vehicleuserexperiences)

(strategiccollaborationondigitalexperience)

DigitalAutoReport2023Volume2

Strategy&

OEM=OriginalEquipmentManufacturerSDV=SoftwareDefinedVehicleHPC=HighPerformanceComputerADAS=AdvancedDriverAssistantSystem

Source:Strategy&analysisasofAugust2023;OEM/softwareproviderpressreleases

7

USD~8bn+digitale-MobilityEurope

1

opportunityin2030–

2

OEMstobuildownplatformsanddriveusecasesw/partners

Digitalopportunitiesine-Mobility

EUmarketsize(2030)

2

BatteryIDandrelatedservices

Smartchargingequipment

Chargepointaccesssoftware

Chargepointmanagementsoftware

UptoUSD0.5bn

3

USD5.8bn

USD0.9bn

USD1.4bn

DigitalIDforbatteriescontainingdata

Smartcharginghardwareequipmentto

optimizethechargingprocessand

interactwiththeelectricgrid,user

preferences,andotherexternalfactors

Softwareplatformsandmobileapps

thatfacilitatetheinteractionbetween

EVownersandthecharging

infrastructure

Softwareplatformsdesignedto

manage,operateandoptimize

chargingnetworks,aswellas

enhancingtheefficiencyofcharging

services

aboutperformanceandmanufacturing

history,increasingtransparency

acrossthebatteryvaluechain

•Batterypassports/digitalbatterytwin

•Intelligentwallboxes/chargingcables

•Searchandaccesstochargepoints

•Reservationandbookingsystems

•Enableelectricitysales

•Real-timeconditionmonitoringfor

reliableandrobustoperation

•Lifecycledocumentation(ownership,

•Intelligenthighpowerchargers

−Gridinteractionandpeak-shaving

status,performance,certification)

•Authenticationandaccesscontrol

•Billingandpaymentsystems

•Power/loadmanagement

•Residualvaluecalculation

•Lifecycleoptimization

−BatterystorageandV2G

integration

−Remotemonitoringand

maintenance

−Smartbuilding/vehicleinteraction

•Payment/ERPandotherusersystem

integration

•Warrantymanagementandinsurance

•Customerservice(usersession)

•Energyandcosttracking

•Customerservice(troubleshooting)

•Fleetmanagementintegration

Adiverserangeofplayersaretryingtodevelopsoftwareandsolutionstocapitalizeonthedigitalopportunitiesine-Mobility–

OEMsshouldfocusondevelopingaplatformwhereothersintegrate,drivingusecasesthroughpartnerships

EV=ElectricvehicleOEM=OriginalEquipmentManufacturerERP=EnterpriseResourcePlanning

1)EU(27+2)+UK+EFTA2)Estimated2030revenues.Smartchargingequipmentincludeshardwarerevenues3)EVbatterycertificateandlifecycleoptimizationservicesonly

Source:Strategy&analysis

DigitalAutoReport2023Volume2

Strategy&

8

SuccessfulEVchargingsoftwarecoversoperationsandpower

mgmt.forCPOs,aswellasaccessandpaymentforendusers

EVchargingsoftware–functionalityandvaluechain

Typesofchargingsoftware

Roamingsoftware

MainfocusonpublishingPOIdataandprocessingcharge

detailrecords

EMSPsoftware

Mainfocusonauthentication,chargingsessionsand

customerapp

Operationssoftware

Mainfocusonchargepointoperations

Powermanagementsoftware

Mainfocusonoptimization

Vehicle

Charge

Chargepointmanagementsoftware

EMSP-relatedsoftware

type

point

Operationssoftware

EMSP

User

EV

software

frontend

driver

ISO/IEC

61851

OCPP

1.6

Passenger

vehicle

•Real-timecondition

monitoring

•Reliableandrobust

operation

OICP

Roaming

services

DCstation

OCPP

Mobile

OICP

EVbattery

B2C

1

DINSPEC

70121

ACstation

Wallbox

•Accessto

chargepoints

•Enable

electricitysales

•Payment/ERP

integration

Webportal

Powermanagementsoftware

Roaming

Commercial

vehicle

•Optimizeenergy

distribution

•Costreduction

B2B/G

RFID

Energymarkets

4

4

2

EV=ElectricvehicleSW=SoftwareCPO=ChargePointOperatorDC=DirectCurrentAC=AlternatingCurrentEMP=E-MobilityServiceProviderERP=EnterpriseResourcePlanning

RFID=RadioFrequencyIdentificationB2C=BusinesstoConsumerB2B/G=BusinesstoBusiness/GovernmentOCPP=OpenChargePointProtocolOICP=OpenInterchargeProtocol

Source:Desktopresearch,Strategy&analysis

DigitalAutoReport2023Volume2

Strategy&

9

Automateddrivingisslowlymovingfromtrialtocommercial–

butindifferentwaysforprivateandsharedvehicles

Automateddriving–latestcommercialdevelopments

Privatevehicles(exemplaryADASfunctionalities)

Sharedvehicles(currentdevelopments)

Implicationsfor…

•Robotaxisenteringcommercialization

•Assupplier,distinguishbetween

ADAS-

Level

MercedesBMW5

Robotaxi

(Cruise,Waymo,Baidu,Pony.ai),

expandingtomorecities(e.g.San

Francisco)

premiumOEMcomponentsand

low-costsystemsformassmarket

ADASfunctionalities

SClass

series

Level0Pre-collisionbraking/forwardcollision

braking

✓

✓

•AsOEM,commercializefirstL2+

featuresinpremiumvehiclesand

graduallyexpandtoother

segments

Cross-trafficAlert

Level1Predictiveandadaptivecruisecontrol

Assistiveparking–driverassisted

Lanekeepingassist

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

✓

•However,someangrycitizensintheU.S.

aimtoblockthesevehiclesintraffic

•InGermany,SixtRobotaxiwithMobileye

Taxiservices,

lastmilemobility

andNIOgainedapprovalinMunich

•Provide"on-demand"solutions

(e.g.payperuse)allowing

customerstodeveloptrustin

advancedADfunctionswhilealso

offsettinghighinitialcomponent/

technologycostsoverthe

lifecycle

Blindspotmonitoring

•WhileEuropeancitiesoftenstilldeploy

pilotprojects,commercialoperationsin

privateareas/industrialsitesalready

active

Roboshuttle

Level2Assistiveparking–remoteparking/key

✓

✓

✓

parking

Automatedlanechange/lanechanging

assist

✓

✓

•Newrobo-shuttlesthatrequireless

infrastructureareexpectedtoincrease

theappealofthevehicleinupcoming

years

Trafficjamassistant

Level2+Highwaydrivingassistupto130km/h

Level3Emergencyassistant

Hands-offtrafficjamassist

✓

✓

Sharedtransportofpeopleona

definedrouteordemandservice

shuttleserviceindefinedareas

•MaintainADarchitecturesina

modularandflexiblefashionto

ensuretheirreusabilityinvarious

vehicletypes,includinge.g.

(robo-)shuttles

✓

✓

✓

•Vaysendsdriverlesscarstocustomers,

thatareoperatedremotelyandisaiming

togatherdataforfasterdeploymentof

automateddrivingvehicles

Highwayautopilot(single-lane)

Tele-operatedvehicles

Intersectionmovementassist

Level4Fullyautomatedvaletparking/

driverlessparking

✓

•Aimforrigorouscost-downonce

scale-upkicksin(L4ADAS

materialcosttargetat$2.840in

2030)

•DeutscheTelekomandMirajointly

launchedapilotprojectforteleoperated

drivinginBonn

Urbanautopilot/fullyautomatedurban

driving

Conciergeserviceforcarsharing

vehicles

Level5

Fullautonomy

DigitalAutoReport2023Volume2

Strategy&

OEM=OriginalEquipmentManufacturerADAS=AdvancedDriverAssistanceSystemAD=AutomatedDriving

Source:Strategy&analysis

10

Learningsfromfirstwaveofhypeshowthatmobilityplayers

needtofocusonassetutilizationinsteadofdifferentiation

Smartmobility–learningsandrecommendations

Learningsfromfirsthypewave

Emergingdominantwaystoplay

Implicationsfor…

EBITMargin(%)

•Adaptivemarketstrategist:adoptagilemarketstrategies

LocalMaaSplatforms

andoffersharedfleetswithflexibleownershipmodels(sub-

scriptions,sharedleasing,pay-as-you-go)anddynamic

pricing

offeringoftechnologysolutionsthat

enablebusinesses,cities,and

transportationproviderstodevelop

ownbrandedmobilityapplications/

services.(e.g.TrafiWhitelabel,Moovit)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

0

-50

-100

-150

-200

-250

•Collaborationpartnerofmobilityserviceoperators:

integrateownfleetsin“super”-apps/broadermobility

ecosystem

Uber

•Three-wheeled/micro-carprovider:offerdifferent,

Lyft

purpose-buildvehicletypesthatmatchfutureneeds

DiDi

Integrated“super”-apps

consolidationofthemostprominent

localsharedmobilityprovidersina

fewapps(e.g.inGermany

•Modularplatformprovider:designmodularvehicle

platformsensuringeasyadaptationtodifferentmobilityuse

cases

•Onlyplaygamesyoucanwin–Leave

countrieswithlimitedsuccessanddivest

non-strategicbusinessunits(seeUBER)

FreeNow,SixtwithMiles,Bolt)

•Keytechnologicalcomponentsprovider:develop

standardizedcriticaltechnologiese.g.automateddriving

systems,advancedconnectivitysolutions,energystorage

•Increaseuserloyalty–Consider

“AmazonPrime“-likememberships(e.g.

UberOne)andAI-enabledcustomercare

Globalaggregator

Combination/comparisonof

sharedmobilityofferingsfrom

severalproviders,allowingusers

toseamlesslyfind,unlockandpay

(e.g.Cogomobility)

•Robo-taxi/shuttleprovider:prepareforaddingADfleets

•Useassetswisely–strategicuseofown

assets(vs.partnerintegration)inthelight

ofincreasedcapitalcostsandintegration

ofpublictransport(seeFreeNOW)

(robo-taxis,robo-shuttles)totheserviceoffering

•CollaborationpartneroflocalMaaSprovider:partner

withMaaSplatformprovidertooptimizecustomer-centric

offeringsandincludepublictransport

DigitalAutoReport2023Volume2

Strategy&

OEM=OriginalEquipmentManufacturerMaaS=Mobility-as-a-ServiceAD=AutomatedDriving

Source:Strategy&analysis

11

Despitevariousdigitalgrowthopportunities,OEMfocustheir

investmentsone-mobility,whileTechandVCfirmsgobroader

Investmentallocationbymobilitytopicandplayertype

OEM

67%

Techplayer

Venturecapital

7%

22%

30%

25%

63%

29%

40%

43%

33%

45%

49%

23%

47%

30%

55%

29%

47%

59%

21%

70%

18%

73%

14%

79%

27%

24%

27%

7%

29%

27%

39%

16%

7%

12%

16%

6%

14%

10%

5%

16%

5%

26%

5%

11%

8%

5%

14%

3%

7%

20%

20%

19%

17%

13%

14%

9%

6%

2019

2020

2021

2022

Q12023

2019

2020

2021

2022

Q12023

2019

2020

2021

2022

Q12023

Electric

Automated

Connected

Shared

OEMsclearlyfocusonelectricmobilityandkeep

“lightson”withautomateddriving;shared

mobilitydidnotrecoversincethepandemic

Techplayersstillbullishonautomateddriving

andactiveinelectricmobility;onlyfewnew

investmentsinconnectedandshared

VCsrebalancetheirinvestmentportfoliofrom

automatedtoelectricmobility;whilestaying

activealsoinshared–althoughlessthan2019

OEM=OriginalEquipmentManufacturerEV=ElectricVehicleVC=VentureCapital

Source:Strategy&analysis;Pitchbook;Factiva

Includedcompanies(forOEMandTechPlayerAnalysis):VolkswagenGroup/Porsche/ToyotaMotorCorporation/GeneralMotorsCompany/HyundaiMotorGroup/Hyundai/KiaMotors

Corporation/FordMotorCompany/Stellantis/Renault-Nissan/Renault/Nissan/MitsubishiMotor/BMWGroup/Mercedes-BenzGroup/Honda/SAIC/Volvo(for

OEM)/Apple/Microsoft/Alphabet/Google/Waymo/TencenAlibabaGroup/Amazon/UberCorporation/Baidu/Meta/Samsung/Xiaomi/Dell;AnalyzedfieldsforVentureCapitalInvestments(inPitchbook):

“AutonomousCars”/“CarSharing”or“RideSharing”/“ElectricVehicle”/“ConnectedCar”or“ConnectedMobility”or“ConnectedVehicles”

DigitalAutoReport2023Volume2

Strategy&

12

WeitereDesign-VorschlägefolgenvonVCS

creative

Modelingthefuturebasedonkeytrends

andadoptiondrivers

DigitalAutoReport2023Volume2

Strategy&

13

ThePwCStrategy&mobilitydemandoutlookbuildson

differentadoptionassumptionsperregion

Keyadoptionassumptions

Connected•C1mandatoryinEUsince2018(eCallinitiative)

•

•

•

•

NoC1requiredbutallcarshavebasicconnectivity

C2(3G/4G)standardinmostcarssince2010

OTAfunctionalityassumedtoworkwithC2/WiFi

C3(5G)penetrationexpectedwithuptakeofL4AD

oractive5Gpushbytelcos(after2028)

•

•

•

•

Developmentissupportedbygovernmentalpolicy

~90%oflowpricecarstobeconnectedby2026

C2(3G/4G)standardinmid-/high-classcarstoday

OTAexpectedtoworkwithC2/WiFi–alreadyat

55%ofnewcarsalesin2022

•

•

•

C2(3G/4G)standardinmorecarssincelate2010s

OTAfunctionalityassumedtoworkwithC2/WiFi

C3(5G)penetrationexpectedwithuptakeofL4AD

oractive5Gpushbytelcos(after2028)

Electric

•

•

•

•

RestrictiveICEregulationinEU(ICEbanby2035)

TCOparityofBEVvs.ICEformostcarsby2025

SufficientBEVrawmaterials&productioncapacity

Sufficientramp-upofcharginginfrastructure

despitesomedelaysin2025-2030

•

NoICEbanatnationallevelfornext15years,but

incentiveprogramsforBEVsplanneduntil2032

Productioncapacitysufficientformoderatedemand

CharginginfrastructureinthecentralUSinsufficient

ZEVstatesleadwithhigherBEVshares

•

•

•

•

•

NoICEbanatnationallevelfornext15years

StrongdemandforsegmentswithTCOparity

SufficientBEVrawmaterials&productioncapacity

Charginginfrastructureinruralareasinsufficient

HighvolumeA-segmentforurbanmobility

•

•

•

Automated

•

•

•

•

UniformEUregulationswiththeUNECE

•

•

•

•

DifferentL4regulationsatstate-levelnext5-10yrs

2xPEPcyclesuntilpricesatmassadoptionlevel

L3adoptionfirstinpremiumvehiclesegments

L4adoptionfirstatscaleforrobo-taxis/shuttlesin

largecitieswhereinfrastructurebuild-outpaysoff

•

SupportivenationwideregulationforL4withpolicy

toreach20%L4newvehiclesalesby2030

L3adoptionfirstinpremiumvehiclesegments

L4adoptionintaxisdelayedgivenlowercost

advantageduetolowerdriverwagesthaninEU/US

2xPEPcyclesuntilpricesatmassadoptionlevel

L3adoptionfirstinpremiumvehiclesegments

L4adoptionfirstatscaleforrobo-taxis/shuttlesin

largecitieswhereinfrastructurebuild-outpaysoff

•

•

Smart

Mobility

•

Risingcostforprivatecarownership(higher

vehicleprices/energyprices/taxation)

Higherpublictransportfundsimproveitsoffering

Regulationincreasinglyincentivizingsharedmodes

•

•

•

Risingcostforprivatecarownership(higher

vehicleprices/energyprices/taxation)

Citieswillincreasinglypushforsharedmodes

(higherparkingfees,citytolls,restrictedlanes)

Limitedimprovement/fundingforpublictransport

•

•

•

•

Moderateincreaseofprivatecarownershipcost

Growingpopulationshareoffirst-timecarowners

Massivepushofmegacitiesforsharedmodes

Ongoingmassiveinvestforurbanpublictransport

•

•

C1=Minimumconnectivity(eCallwithSIMcardat2G),